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Nokia to enter design pattern competition for 2011 smartphones with MeeGo

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/hub.1326407570.html

Nokia is recognizing two already dominant design pattern candidates for mobile phones: Apple iOS and the similar to each other in this respect Nokia Symbian and Android. Then there is also a recent third pattern from Microsoft, with unknown yet success, and Nokia itself is preparing to launch a fourth one with its MeeGo platform as a highly important strategic bet by the company.

Major update: Marko Ahtisaari: smartphone evolution is only just beginning [The Guardian, Jan 31, 2012]

“There’s a point of view about design that all innovation in the interaction with the phone has been done,” Ahtisaari says. “Nothing could be further from the truth. The phase we’re in now is like the 1880s in the car industry. Back then, cars had tillers – you would steer them like boats, with a wheel at the back. It took 15 years to settle on the steering wheel at the front controlling the front wheels. And we’re in the middle of that part of the evolution of interaction.”

“Look at iOS. Multiple pages of apps, and folder, with a physical home key. It’s very elegant; it was a great innovation five years ago. But the core interaction hasn’t evolved much. It’s simple but constant. It’s like a house where you know that you can always get to the kitchen from the living room – but you have to go through the front door.”

He adds quickly, “OK, so there’s been some changes. Now you can get there if you skip on one leg” – referring to the double tap’ introduced by Apple in iOS 4 for fast switching between apps via a “drawer” at the bottom of the screen.

“The other model, of Android and Symbian, is multiple, personalisable home screens with widgets. There’s some fragmentation in button layouts where different devices have them in different ways. The hope is that having personalisable screens is so organic that you end up using it via the home screen.”
In the past year we have seen a different way to do it – Live Tiles [as used in Microsoft’s Windows Phone interface] – they’re abstractions of data, a panoramic view of your data. It’s a different approach – ‘glanceability’, such as in the People Hub.” He explains that “our goal in the studio is to design so that people can have their head up again. Touchscreen designs are often immersive; we’ll often see couples in a restaurant pinching and zooming, but not interacting with each other. And there’s a trend of having smaller and smaller targets on screen so you have to get closer and closer. If we can make the interfaces more direct, so you can have your head up again – this is something that, while it would never come up in a focus group, is deeply appreciated by people, because the most important things are happening not only in the vessel of your phone, but also with the people and the environment around you.”

That element of “glance-and-go” is one that has been emphasised by Microsoft, and now Nokia too.

His theme is that we shouldn’t think that iOS or Android (or Symbian) has ended user-interface evolution. The sun’s just coming up on that. “I think there will be more diversity in user interfaces rather than less. In automotive, you need to have some standardisation for safety reasons – you can’t have wheels in some and tillers in others. So you want a standard, or standards.” That doesn’t apply in phones: “Here, they will be more diversity in user interface because you can design more ways to use a phone. Some people would say that the iPhone is the new generic form. My point is more about competitive diversity. What’s really important is that this isn’t styling.” He becomes emphatic. “This aesthetic come from the way that we build the product.”

… 

Update: Nokia N9 UX [?Swipe?] on MeeGo 1.2 Harmattan [June 24, 2011]
Follow-up: Designing smarter phones–Marko Ahtisaari (Nokia) and Albert Shum (Microsoft) [Nov 23, 2011]

Note: Version 1.2 of MeeGo OS is scheduled for April 2011 but the smartphone product won’t happen, either on Intel or ARM until around June 2011. See my post on Intel Oak Trail to beat ARM with MeeGo specific prices [Nov 25]

This is all according to its SVP Design and User Experience, Marko Ahtisaari [the indicated timing is for the video record of his plenary speech at LeWeb 2010 on Dec 8, also linked later on]:

1.[2:25] Elegant, simple, extremely blown out – the iOS design pattern. Essentially a screen or screens full of apps and a physical homekey like the mouse key. You click it, you take your hand off the screen  to do something on the screen, then may leave to go home. Beautifully elegant, extremely simple to learn with a few steps. And think of a forefront of a house where if you want to go from the kitchen to the dining room you know how you go to the front door. And if after dinner you want to go to the living room you again know how to do that, you go to the front door. Of course the physical button is this mouse click has been loaded with more and more functionality, but essentially a beatifully elegant system that is fantastically constrained. [3:18]. 2.Multiple personizable homescreens where the bet is that the process of personalizing (filling out these home screens) is so simple and organic that it just happens over time and you end up using the device by these home screens – the pattern shared by both Symbian and Android, also the fastest growing pattern. There is not only one physical button but there are many, in fact there are many different configurations that are quite fragmented, as many people commented. And there is some way to flip to where you launch apps, but essentially it is about these personalizable home screens for both shortcuts and live information, or using tabs or so on those widgets. [4:08]
3.[4:20] Windows Phone 7 has introduced an interesting new pattern, too early to tell [how successful it will be]. But it just shows that there is demand for other patterns. [4:26]One important remark by Sofpedia’s Nokia Poised to Change Mobile UI Approach with MeeGo Devices [Dec 8] report: “Marko Ahtisaari suggests that the future would bring different UI patterns to devices, and that one of them would be based on notifications. Microsoft’s new Windows Phone 7 OS was built based on notifications.” 4.[4:28] This is basically what is the design team in the Nokia Design Studios is spending most of its time on doing:  is introducing a new pattern. This will be launched with MeeGo in 2011. … [To give the idea:] … If you look at touchscreen immersive experiences, so most touchscreen devices, and what you start thinking is this way: you will see this at every single moment – so you walk in Paris, you see in cafe, [where] you see a couple [who] have been together for 10-15 years – they will be there head down, pitching and zooming. Touchscreen interfaces are immersive, they require our full attention. [5.15]I think we are missing a trick and also we are not doing good enough design unless we give people their head up again. What do I mean by that? Better one-handed use, better ways to use the devices, without them demanding our full attention. This means more eye contact, more ability to be present both with the people you are around, with right now the physical environment, as well as when you are navigating the physical environment and using maps. I think this giving people their head-up again is extremely important. [5:45]

For the rest of the talk it is better to continue with a summarized transcript like reporting Live at LeWeb: Marko Ahtisaari [Dec 8] from Nokia Conversations, the official Nokia blog:

We need to give people their head up again. The ability to keep social interaction with the people that they’re physically with. That means a better ability to use the devices single-handed and them requiring less of our attention for peripheral interactions. Notifications, for example, could be much improved so they require much less from us.

The second big influence for the most competitive devices will be the way they are able to harness the collective intelligence of their users. Smartphone users create a lot of data. The collective use of Ovi Maps for navigation, for example, circumnavigates the globe 80 times a day. The average owner makes use of it 11 times a month.

We can use that data to make the devices more intelligent: for example, to avoid traffic jams and create alternative routes. We can also use it to improve the maps – if we see people going in directions that don’t exist on the map, we can see there’s something to fix.

But it’s not just maps, as we have more sensors on the device we can answer almost any question. The research on collective intelligence says that it needs a large, independent, diverse group of people to solve problems – that’s what we’ve got. Soon phones will allow you to arrive somewhere – say the LeWeb party tonight – and it’ll know where the bar is and where to find the discotheque.

So this is the most essential part of Nokia’s announcement. You can also watch the associated video records for more information and general rational for Nokia’s strategy with MeeGo:
Marko Ahtisaari, SVP Design, Nokia — live Ustream record of his speech [Dec 8]
Marko Ahtisaari, SVP Design, Nokia Q&A — live Ustream record of his interview after the speech [Dec 8]

Some notable excerpts from reports around the web:

Nokia’s Marko Ahtisaari From LeWeb: Meego Will See New UI In 2011 [Dec 8]

Ahtisaari began his talk about two issues on his mind, the state of the smartphone market as well as the collective intelligence, how platforms get better as more people use them. He’s key point was, that while the smartphone market is hyped a lot in media, there is a ton of action elsewhere in the mobile space that is seldomly reported on. But he did say that Nokia is now on very impressive growth curve with its Ovi Store. Daily downloads are around 3.5 million, when they were around 3 million just 3 weeks ago and around 2 million in September. Furthermore, 250 000 people sign up each day.

Secondly, there’s a lot of collective intelligence being built into applications, for example the Ovi maps. They can receive a ton of information from people using the navigational tools, for example when cars go off piste, they know they might need to update the data on that map. But according to Ahtisaari, this is just the beginning.

Furthermore, Ahtisaari shared or perhaps reminded us about some of the reasons why developers should be looking at Nokia as their platform. Nokia is still the most global, yet local platform out there. Their phones work in over 180 countries, in close to 50 languages. Back in November we shared some of the Ovi store statistics and Nokia has one of the most impressive payment mechanisms for developers out there as well.

Nokia praises iPhone, warns of ‘Cupertino distortion field’: Nokia at LeWeb both praises, trashes Apple iPhone [Dec 8]

While discussing the company’s plans for MeeGo phones in 2011, he produced rare compliments and said the iPhone interface was “beautifully elegant” and easy to learn. At the same, however, he saw Apple as unfairly creating a perception that Nokia was losing out and alluded to the stereotype of Steve Jobs’ “reality distortion field,” stressing that Nokia’s reach was much wider.

“There is this Cupertino distortion field,” he said. “We compete with all phones all over the world.”

Nokia would take a small cue from Microsoft and try to shift away from constantly staring at phones. Smartphones today are “immersive, they require our full attention,” he said. Rather than strictly follow Microsoft’s approach, though, the goal with MeeGo was to focus on “one-handed use” where a device didn’t need full attention.

Nokia’s MeeGo Will Bet on Differences to iOS and Android [Dec 8]

The Finnish mobile phone giant is … under pressure to fight back against Apple’s iPhone, Google’s Android operating system, and a resurgent Microsoft mobile platform.

Mr. Ahtisaari was, however, preaching patience and caution on stage today.

On mobile interfaces, he said: “We’re at the point the automotive industry was in the 1890s, where cars had tillers — not steering wheels, which were 15 years in the future.”

He said he’d left his own start-up to join Nokia, “making a bet on the steering wheel.”

Nokia, he said, wants to “give people their head up again.”

Asked by conference organizer Loic Le Meur if that meant screens beamed onto our spectacles, or even into our retina (Mr. Le Meur was keen on the latter), Mr. Ahtisaari said that was a while off.

But he did suggest physical keys might become rarer on the MeeGo devices, with faces that were all screen, with no physical buttons, “allowing the apps to shine.”

… We already knew the MeeGo launch will be a vital one for the future of Nokia. Mr. Ahtisaari’s talk of design innovations today will mean it is even more keenly anticipated.

Nokia focusing on UI dynamics for MeeGo; needs to “regain the imagination” [Dec 8]:

Nokia SVP of Design Marko Ahtisaari has admitted that the company still needs “to somehow regain the imagination,” though as always that route won’t involve Android. “We’ll go where we can add value,” Ahtisaari said at LeWeb 2010 this morning, “that’s not the case at the moment with Android.” Instead, Nokia’s design team is focused on new homescreen paradigms ahead of MeeGo‘s launch in 2011, with Ahtisaari arguing that the UI dynamics of iOS, Symbian and Android aren’t quite there yet.

Another focus is how sensor-integrated phones can learn from the individual user’s behavior, but also that of other device users in aggregate. “How do the platforms get better the more people use them?” Ahtisaari asked, pointing to Ovi Maps and its ability to not only intuit traffic and map information from multiple user feedback, but to track inaccuracies in core mapping data as it spots multiple users going off-course.

One future implementation, he suggested, was coupling GPS data with other sensor input, and using that to dynamically work out real-time activity. So, a sudden group of users in proximity could suggest the location of a party. The design team is also looking at how devices address updates and reminders of things like missed calls and new messages, though Ahtisaari didn’t show any UI mockups.

Split strategy for HTML 5 and Windows only enhanced development from Microsoft

This is how after Silverlight Firestarter event yesterday Microsoft cloud client software strategy is looking like.

More information from Tim Anderson’s ITWriting (providing a consistent and in depth reporting on this):
Silverlight 5 unveiled: more power, more Windows [Dec 2]: “There are a couple of ways to look at Silverlight. Microsoft’s lack of commitment to cross-platform parity and its unwillingness to address broad device support means it does not look good as a broad-reach browser plugin, despite its great features on systems that do support it. On the other hand, as an alternative to desktop Windows applications Silverlight looks increasingly attractive as its capabilities increase.”
The top Silverlight feature request: implement on more platforms [Dec 3]: “Looking at the comments, Android is a common request, and relatively easy for Microsoft to achieve given the open nature of that platform. This was apparently not part of the 70% though. Instead, Guthrie introduced more Windows-only features – showing that concerns about divergence between Windows and Mac implementations when Microsoft announced COM support at the 2009 PDC were justified.
Understanding the Silverlight controversy [Nov 3]

The cloud client space for 2001 and beyond is going to look as follows:

Gartner forecast for media tablets (in thousands):

2010 2011 2012 2013
19,490 54,781 103,425 154,150

Digitimes Research representing the forecasts of the device manufacturers (in millions):

Year Smartphones Tablet PCs Notebooks
2011 440 total (281 in 2010)
–>131 Android, 123 Symbian, 74 iPhone, 2 Blackberry, 22 Windows Phone
44 iPad
(15 in 2010)
20-30 non-iPad
227
Top 9
2013 800 100 300

Keep in mind that Digitimes Research is collecting its forecasts from the Taiwanese manufacturers who have rather precise forecast numbers for 2011 since the supply chain is quite long, so from brand names down to the smallest component makers the numbers should be well forecasted in order to have sufficient delivery druing the next year.

  • Update: Barnes & Noble to upgrade Nook Color e-book readers to tablet PCs [Dec 17]
    Non-iPad Tablet PC shipments by the end of 2010 from Top 5 notebook makers:
    – Wistron for Lenovo (LePad, Android) and Acer [?]: 50,000
    – Inventec for Barnes & Noble (Nook Color, Android 2.2) and HP (Slate 500, Windows 7): 1-1.5 million, which are mostly Nook Color “expected to reach one million units by the end of 2010”
    – Pegatron for Toshiba (Folio 100, Android): 50,000-100,00

For this reason Microsoft decision means that for the next year at least:
– they will cover 418 million newly delivered smartphones, the 44 million new Apple iPads and a certain portion of the 20-30 million non-iPad tablet PCs (those which will be Windows based) only with their HTML 5 [+ Jscript + JSON + SVG] technologies
– only 22 million new Windows Phones 7 smartphones will be covered by Silverlight technology
– plus 200+ million notebooks[/netbooks] and a certain portion of Windows tablet PCs out of total 20-30 million non-iPad tablet PCs will be covered with both Silverlight and Windows Presentation Foundation technologies
for the client side presentation development.

Now the $ 1 million question is, how the HTML 5 [+ Jscript + JSON + SVG] technologies part of client software development will be supported by Microsoft tools next year? The answer should come sooner than later from Microsoft otherwise they will miss that huge boat of ~ 430 million intelligent devices aimed for the cloud next year.

More information:
– The Future of Microsoft Silverlight
(Microsoft site)
– Announcing Silverlight 5
[Scott Guthrie, Dec 2]
Silverlight 5 Plans Revealed [Dec 2]
Silverlight 5 announced; the focus shift is made clear [Dec 2]
on “Experiencing the Cloud”:
Microsoft going multiplatform? [Sept 17]
Microsoft to lead standards compliance and implementation? … or how Microsoft is aiming to create a radically new Windows client platform via a set of “whole computer capable rich web” standards. [Sept 20]

Intel Oak Trail to beat ARM with MeeGo specific prices

As per Digitimes Intel starts mass producing Oak Trail platform [Nov 24]

… specifically for tablet PCs, with the combination of Atom Z670 processor and SM35 chipset the initial product, according to industry sources.

The Oak Trail platform will sell at about US$25 with MeeGo, and the price for Oak Trail and Microsoft’s Windows 7 will be higher.

There were a couple of news regarding the state of MeeGo a month ago as well:

For developers’ eyes only: MeeGo version 1.1 [Oct 21]

Today marks a new project release of the MeeGo software, the open-source next-gen operating system for computing devices that Nokia and Intel kicked off earlier this year. The release brings it to version 1.1. This includes updates to the Core operating system, together with the Netbook, In-Vehicle and Mobile Handset packages. An updated Software Development Kit (SDK) for version 1.1 will follow shortly. So MeeGo’s well on its way and showing great progress.

So what is a “project release”? Let’s start with what it isn’t. This isn’t a finished product for you to load up on to your phone and use on a day-to-day basis. The user interface is neither finished nor is it representative of what the experience will look like on future Nokia devices (we’re creating our own unique experience using Qt). What it is, is a generic version intended to allow developers and device manufacturers to get familiar with the code and the capabilities of future devices.

Version 1.2 is scheduled for April 2011, by which point the MeeGo handset user experience software should be pretty much complete. For all the technical details, jump to meego.com.

MeeGo 1.1 Release [Oct 28]

This release includes:

  • Core OS 1.1 – consolidated common base operating system for all UXs
  • Netbook UX 1.1 – complete set of core applications for netbooks
  • In-Vehicle Infotainment (IVI) UX 1.1 – includes a sample IVI home screen and taskbar built with Qt 4.7 and speech recognition
  • Handset UX 1.1 – technology snapshot implements basic development UX for voice calling, SMS messaging, web browsing, music and video playback, photo viewing, and connection management
  • SDK 1.1 Beta – SDK for MeeGo Core OS and supported UXs will be released during the coming days before the MeeGo Summit conference in Dublin.

Looking Ahead to MeeGo 1.2

MeeGo development continues forward on a six-month cadence. MeeGo 1.2 is scheduled for April of 2011 and it will include a Handset UX release with a complete set of applications, and support for other device usage models.

Relative to that nothing really new came out of the MeeGo camp. Chippy has a good Report: Timeline for MeeGo Netbooks, Tablets and Smartphones [Nov 20] for those who want to understand in all details what Meego will bring next year and when. Author’s final conclusion  is:

We could see MeeGo netbooks with AppUp as early as January with ‘features’ such as quick-boot, lower cost, a simple-to-use operating system with a social-networking slant. We’re unlikely to see too much excitement around these early devices though because platforms and applications need to develop to create products with any major selling points. ARM do have an opportunity to get MeeGo on a netbook-style device in order to create an interesting long-battery-life product.

Tablets could appear in the early part of 2011 as 3rd-parties are already working on UI solutions based on MeeGo 1.1 but for interesting multi-touch products, with an application store, this won’t happen until around June 2011.

The first MeeGo smartphone requires MeeGo V1.2 and won’t happen, either on Intel or ARM until around June 2011. That phone is likely to be a Nokia product and its success will be critical to MeeGo.

Everything up until this Nokia/MeeGo phone can be called Phase-1 – led by Intel/Nokia investment. If these products show class-leading features and the developers start to create applications then we’ll start to see Phase 2 products created through independent investment that are true indicators of MeeGo momentum. That story starts in Q3 2011.

This means that Intel cannot effectively compete against ARM for another half year at least. Intel’s ally in the MeeGo strategy is also under reorganisation:

The mid-2000s represent something of a high-water mark for Nokia. In 2005, it was the undisputed king of the mobile market having sold its billionth handset.

Today, while Nokia remains the world’s largest seller of mobile phones, its prospects have changed dramatically. The company now faces slipping market share, competing mobile operating systems and a world where Apple and Android are regarded as the smartphone leaders.

… The fightback will be headed by Stephen Elop, the former head of Microsoft’s business division, who replaced outgoing CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo on 21 September.

Nokia’s new CEO just hired a new chief marketing officer to help the once-hot cellphone maker fix its dying brand.

Digitimes recently also had the opportunity to talk with ARM president, Tudor Brown and share his views regarding the market for tablet PCs in 2011, and the role of Taiwan’s hardware manufacturers in the booming business. Brown also discussed ARM’s business opportunities in a PC industry that is moving toward increased mobility. See:

Tablet PCs are opportunities to redistribute profits among supply chain players, says ARM president [Nov 19
Toward increased mobility: Q&A with ARM president Tudor Brown [Nov 24]

The leading vendor in Taiwan  meanwhile unveiled its strategy as follows:

Acer adopts AMD CPU for tablet PCs [Nov 25]

Among Acer’s announced initial batch of tablet PCs, a 10.1-inch Windows 7-based model is believed to use AMD’s Ontario APU codenamed C-50, according to sources from notebook players.

… The dual-core C-50 APU, which consumes only 9W of power, is currently priced at about US$55-60 and includes an integrated Radeon HD 6250 graphics chip [and also UVD dedicated hardware acceleration for HD video including 1080p resolutions, see later].

Live and interact in total mobility – Tablets according to Acer [Nov 23]:

… support of its goal to simplify content consumption – a strategy which began with the development of Acer’s multimedia sharing system, Clear.fi. Acer’s strategy is based on the concept of sharing multimedia content and enjoying it across any device, and Tablets are ideal devices for this purpose.

A 10.1” Android tablet for a superb mobile and home entertainment experience … Designed for HD entertainment, this tablet comes with a high resolution, high color contrast display, allowing you to play or share HD video with your friends wherever you are. … Available April 2011

7” Android Tablet: the epitome of mobility … On the 7” (1280×800) 16:10 aspect ratio full touch screen, you can enjoy games, photos, videos while keeping up with your emails or your favourite social networks. Video chat or record a video with the front-facing HD camera. With HDMI support, hooking it up for a big screen video experience is easyier than ever! … Available April 2011

10.1” Windows Tablet: Versatility in a tablet form factor … an extremely innovative solution that combines touch screen user-friendliness with the comfortable experience of a physical keyboard. In fact, the tablet comes with a docking device that includes a full-size keyboard and more connectivity options to enhance the user experience. … Thin and light (only 15 mm and less than 1kg), and with a 10.1”, high resolution display, it’s easy to carry around and really unobtrusive. This tablet ensures outstanding entertainment and a superior touch experience. … Available February 2011

Acer debuts 10.1-inch Windows 7 tablet: AMD-powered, inbuilt 3G, coming February 2011 [Nov 23]

Acer aims at largest global market share for tablet PCs in 2-3 years, says CEO [Nov 26]. A detailed interview.
Compal, Wistron to station in Chongqing, says Acer source [Nov 23]:

…accepted an invitation from Acer to set up production bases in Chongqing, western China, to support Acer’s operational headquarters there, according to a source inside Acer.

Acer’s headquarters in Chongqing will start operations in the second or third quarter of 2011 and are expected to handle half of Acer’s PC shipments in 2012, which is about 30 million units, the source said.

More information regarding AMD’s new APUs based on brand new Bobcat cores see in my post SoC advances for client, server and mobile basestation level [Aug 25, with updates going as of Nov 25]

More information regarding Intel’s Oaktrail see in my posts:
Windows 7 tablets/slates with Oak Trail Atom SoC in December [Nov 1, with updates going as of Nov 24]
Intel SoC for Cloud Clients [June 27, with updates going as of Aug 23]

More information on the current leading edge in ARM offerings see in my posts:
Marvell ARMADA with sun readable and unbreakable Pixel Qi screen, and target [mass] manufacturing cost of $75 [Nov 4]
Marvell ARMADA beats Qualcomm Snapdragon, NVIDIA Tegra and Samsung/Apple Hummingbird in the SoC market [again] [Sept 23, with updates going as of Nov 2]

More information regarding Windows slates/tablets see in my posts:
Windows 7 tablets/slates with Oak Trail Atom SoC in December [Nov 1, with updates going as of Nov 24]
Windows slates in the coming months? Not much seen yet [July 13, with updates going as of Oct 9]

HTC: the most promising ICT brand in Taiwan

Major updates: HTC expects business performance to bottom out in 1Q12 [Feb 7, 2012]

Taiwan-based smartphone vendor HTC expects its business operation in the first quarter of 2012 to bottom out due to a decreased average selling price along with the process of transitioning from old smartphone models to new ones, with consolidated revenues projected to decrease by 31.0-35.9% on quarter to NT$65.0-70.0 billion (US$2.19-2.36 billion) while gross margins and net operating margins are expected to slip to 25% and 7.5% respectively, according to company CFO Winston Yung at an online investor conference on February 6.

HTC expects sales to increase beginning in the second quarter of 2012 along with the launch of several new flagship smartphone models, with gross margins and net operating margins to rise to levels seen in the first three quarters of 2011, Yung indicated.

HTC has been faced with hot competition from Apple and Samsung Electronics in the US market and less competition in the Europe market, but has performed well in the Asia market, especially in China, Yung pointed out.

As smartphones are increasingly popular, HTC will cater to each market segment by launching price competitive models yet with functional differentiation to increase added value to maintain gross margins, Yung pointed out.

While sales performance of LTE (Long Term Evolution) smartphones fell short of expectation in 2011, HTC expects increased adoption of LTE models by mobile telecom carriers in the US, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea in 2012, Yung indicated.

HTC: Financial report (NT$b)

Item

4Q11

Q/Q

2011

Y/Y

Consolidated revenues

101.42

(25.33%)

465.79

67.09%

Gross margin

27.12

down 0.89 percentage point

28.30%

down 1.79 percentage points

Net operating margin

12.71

down 2.15 percentage points

14.77%

down 1.06 percentage points

Net profit

10.94

(41.40%)

61.98

56.77%

Net earnings per share (NT$)

13.06

73.32

Source: Company, compiled by Digitimes, February 2012

Mid-market Android Meltdown – HTC Warns Big Again [Forbes, Feb 6, 2012]

HTC has issued another massive revenue warning.The company is now guiding 1Q12 revenues to T$65-70 Billion, way below the T$89 Billion consensus expectation. January revenue crashed by 52% YoY. You read that right – in the overall smartphone market where at least volume growth probably was close to 50% in January, HTC sales halved year on year. Operating margins are now heading below 8% in 1Q12. What seemed like a triumphant success story just last autumn is rapidly turning into a bitter rout that has some intriguing parallels with Motorola in 2007.

This follows two major warnings from 4Q11 – warnings that should have lowered analyst expectations to realistic levels for 1Q12. Instead, many leading firms like Sanford Bernstein have continued insisting that HTC will do just fine. The size of the latest sales guidance cut clearly indicates that HTC is suffering from a post-Christmas inventory hangover that is far more serious than Wall Street expected.

We see once more how dangerous the impulse to protect strong operating margins can be. It demolished Ericsson‘s once so proud handset division in mid-Nineties, it killed Nokia’s innovation in mid-Noughties, it hamstrung Motorola around 2006.

In 2011, HTC refused to dive deep into low-end smartphone market in order to protect its mid-teen operating margins. It opted to compete head-to-head against iPhone at the high-end.

As a result, HTC now risks losing the handset success it spent half a decade building. Welcome to the club.

The market capitalization showing the real value of HTC, however, is just right on the spot:

End of major updates

The news 4 days ago were HTC Becomes Most Profitable Listed Company in Taiwan [Oct 14, 2010]:

Thanks to increasing popularity of smartphones worldwide, the Taiwan-based High Tech Computer Corp. (HTC), a globally leading vendor of smartphones its under own brand, reported an EPS (earnings per share) of NT$30.29 for the first nine months of this year, unseating MediaTek Inc., a world-caliber handset IC designer, as the most profitable listed company on the island in the period. Launching a couple of hot-selling smartphones, such as Desire, Wildfire, Legend and Incredible, to boost its market shares worldwide, HTC has enjoyed explosive sales growth and remained one of the most successful brands in Taiwan.

…. The firm raked in NT$27.058 billion [US$0.88B] in combined revenue for September, sharply up 129.65% from a year earlier to hit an all-time high. This pushed up its combined revenue and net profits for the third quarter of the year to NT$75.849 billion [US$2.47B] and NT$11.098 billion [US$0.36B], or NT$13.61 per share, respectively. Meanwhile, HTC`s aggregate combined revenue and net profits for the first nine months of the year reached NT$174.756 billion [US$5.7B] and NT$24.735 billion [US$0.81B] …

HTC has set an internal goal of shipping 54 million smartphones in 2011 but the goal is expected to be difficult to attain because the company will be faced with strong competition from Apple’s new generation of iPhone and Nokia’s Windows Phone 7-based new smartphones in the fourth quarter, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

Based on the ASP of US$359 recorded in the first quarter of 2011, HTC’s second-quarter shipments of smartphones will top 11.5 million units, an increase of 18.6% from 9.7 million units shipped in the first quarter, and better than the company’s projection of 11 million units, the sources indicated.

With demand for HTC’s Android-based smartphones still growing steadily and HTC set to begin selling its naked-eye 3D model, the HTC EVO 3D, in Europe in July, the company is expected to garner revenues of NT$135-140 billion (US$4.7-4.88 billion) in the third quarter with its smartphone shipments reaching 12.5-13 million units, estimated the sources.

HTC is also expected to roll out new models for the year-end holiday season and to fulfill its annual shipment target, said the sources, noting that HTC will be able, at least, to ship 50 million smartphones in 2011, double from the amount shipped in 2010.

Smartphone vendor HTC has announced that unaudited consolidated revenues for December 2010 totaled NT$33.087 billion (US$1.131 billion). Total consolidated revenues of fiscal 2010 came to NT$278.761 billion [US$9.529 billion], up 92.92 % on year. Consolidated operating income was NT$44.185 billion, consolidated net income was NT$44.696 billion before tax and NT$39.330 billion or NT$48.24 a share after tax based on 815,239,000 weighted average number of shares.

HTC has reportedly informed its suppliers that it will eventually need parts and components for the production of up to 60 million handsets in 2011 compared to shipments of 20 million units projected for 2010, according to industry sources.

… to 50 million units in 2011 from an estimate of 25 million units for 2010, according to institutional investors.

… Worth mentioning is that HTC is likely to announce its foray into the tablet PC segment soon, and will launch its first model in 2011 as its ace in the hole to drive business operations. So far, the firm has kept completely silent on the product launch plan though.

HTC has reported consolidated revenues of NT$38.484 billion (US$1.258 billion) for November 2010, hitting a monthly record for the second consecutive time. HTC’s November consolidated revenues were 4-10% higher than the originally expected NT$35-37 billion, according to investors. HTC is expected to generate consolidated revenues of NT$33-35 billion in December, resulting in fourth-quarter figures of NT$105 billion [US$ 3.49B] which is higher than HTC’s forecast NT$100 billion, the sources pointed out.

HTC’s shipments of Android and Windows Phone 7 smartphones have been short of demand and its booming shipments will continue and reach 8.5 million units in the first quarter of 2011, the sources indicated.

… The office space is to accommodate HTC’s expanded R&D staff during the construction of its headquarters building 230 meters away from the purchased property, HTC pointed out. The building, with 17 stories and five basement levels, will have a total floor area of 85,620 square meters to accommodate 2,200 employees, with completion scheduled for the end of 2011, HTC indicated. 11 floors of the new building will be used to house R&D capacity, HTC noted.

In related news, HTC is expanding its production capacity at a factory in northern Taiwan, and another in Shanghai, eastern China, with combined monthly capacity to be increased to four million smartphones at the end of 2010, HTC noted. [This will be ~48% of total Taiwan handset output capacity. See the report below.]

Taiwan’s handset shipments hit a record in the third quarter of 2010. First-tier handset vendors Nokia, LG Electronics (LGE), Sony Ericsson and Motorola all expanded JDM or ODM orders to Taiwan, and Taiwan’s own-brand smartphone vendor High Tech Computer (HTC) also saw shipments increase, spurring Taiwan’s total handset shipments to top 21 million units.

In April this year HTC was positioned among the Global 2000 ICT companies from Taiwan as follows (source: Forbes Global 2000 Country List [Apr 21]):

Global 2000 Taiwanese ICT Stocks by Forbes -- 21-Apr-2010

The market value has dramatically changed since then for most of those companies (sources: Forbes Global 2000 Country List [Apr 21] and Reuters Stocks [from which market values were taken on Oct 15]:

Global 2000 Taiwanese ICT Stocks Market Value -- 15-Oct-2010

The red line above corresponds to the ~10% average increase for those ICT stocks, so here we can also see the above the average new increased (or below the average new decreased) value of the companies by looking at the columns themselves (while the data label numbers show the percentage value as of Oct 15 vs. March 1).

It is also worth to look at the exact numbers (by clicking on the link here you will get a PDF which provides all the source data links as seen on the image by the usual hyperlink presentations, so you could have full background, including company overviews):

Global 2000 Taiwanese ICT Stock Numbers Forbes-Reuters -- 21-Apr-15-Oct-2010

One could see here that HTC became the #3 most valuable ICT company from Taiwan jumping from the #5 place to the current #3 in just 7.5 months. Meanwhile such well established Taiwanese brands as Acer and Asustek are much behind of HTC. Also all of the PC/notebook ODMs (Original Design Manufacturers), Quanta, Compal, Wistron and Inventec are much behind HTC now. Only Hon Hai Precision Industries, well known outside Taiwan as Foxconn Technologies, is significantly bigger in market value, but Foxconn Technologies is a huge contract manufacturer owning 50+% of the worldwide Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) market. And certainly Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is even more valuable, not surprisingly, because TSMC is the #1 chip foundry in the world.

Ranking (2008 ranking)

Brand

Brand value (US$100 M.)

1 (3)

Acer

12.41

2 (1)

Trend Micro

12.35

3 (2)

ASUS

12.26

4 (4)

HTC

12.03

Source: Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA)

Here is an Oct 23, 2009 ranking from Global Recession Reshuffles List of Top-20 Taiwanese Brands 2009 rankings show China`s rising [Oct 23, 2009]:

The reason? Here are two press releases from iSuppli which might somewhat explain (I will devote a whole post later to this question):

Android Drives Success in Q2 Smart Phone Market by [Oct 14] – Makers of Android-based handsets outperform the market (emphasis is mine):

Droid phone specialist HTC Corp. achieved industry-leading growth, with its smart phone shipments rising by a stunning 63.1 percent in the second quarter compared to the first.

HTC’s Android success can be traced to wireless operators that want to showcase the capabilities of their upgraded networks by offering handsets with sophisticated features to subscribers. For example, U.S. wireless carrier Sprint Nextel Corp. is offering HTC’s EVO 4G, a feature-packed Android handset that can capitalize on the high speed of its WiMAX-based 4G network. To keep its momentum going, HTC is expected to offer an Android phone that supports Long Term Evolution (LTE)—the other major standard for 4G.

HTC’s share of global smart phone shipments in the second quarter rose to 8 percent, up from 5.3 percent in the first quarter, allowing the company to solidify its No. 4 position in the market.

HTC Intensifies Android Push, Starts Cloud Service [Sept 14]:

HTC shipped 5.4m smartphones in Q2 2010, an 80 per cent increase year-on-year. HTC owes this strong performance in no small part to its Android-based devices which were greeted with both critical and commercial success.

Initially a white label manufacturer catering to operators, HTC changed course two years ago and invested heavily in building its own brand identity, mostly on the high-to-mid end of the market. This led to the launch of Sense, which is aimed at maintaining a differentiator in a market increasingly crowded by Android devices. Screen Digest believes this strategy should prove successful in helping HTC reach 20m handsets shipped in 2010.

The move towards online services might seem surprising at first given the existing syncing options offered by Google as part of Android, but can be interpreted as a way for HTC to build further loyalty through additional complementary services.

Global Recession Reshuffles List of Top-20 Taiwanese Brands
2009 rankings show China`s rising

Google App Inventor Beta for Android

Google’s Do-It-Yourself App Creation Software [The New York Times, July 11]

… has been under development for a year. User testing has been done mainly in schools with groups that included sixth graders, high school girls, nursing students and university undergraduates who are not computer science majors.

… The Google application tool for Android enables people to drag and drop blocks of code — shown as graphic images and representing different smartphone capabilities— and put them together, similar to snapping together Lego blocks. The result is an application on that person’s smartphone.

App Inventor for Android [Google Blog, July 12]
About App Inventor
App Inventor research project launch [Google Research Blog, July 31, 2009]

Android App Inventor lets you be the developer (video) [Engadget, July 12]

Google is following in Nokia’s footsteps today by offering its users a simple-to-use DIY app maker. Employing a design scheme that relies on visual blocks rather than oodles of arcane code, the App Inventor — still in Beta, of course — has functions for “just about anything” you can do with an Android handset, including access to GPS and phone functionality.

Is Google App Inventor A Gateway Drug Or A Doomsday Device For Android? [TechCrunch, July 11]

Because this new tool makes it easy for anyone to make their own apps, it makes the idea of trying to create your own app a much less daunting one. And that’s the powerful thing here. If this tool can get some kid to start messing around with app creation, maybe they’ll get more interested and start learning actual Java. And then maybe one day they’ll create the next killer app.

… they [Google] have to hope it doesn’t backfire and simply flood the Android Market with more junk apps than already exist. Google already has a problem with surfacing good apps in their market—interesting, given that they are the ones that surface good webpages as mentioned earlier—the problem could get worse if this tool is a success.

Still, I’m going to be cautiously optimistic that this tool is a good thing. Potentially a very good thing. And it’s something Apple should be taking very seriously.

Personal note: One thing is clear, there is a significantly increased momentum for Google Android as has been well indicated by my previous 4 infonuggets:

Android 2.2 (Froyo) excitement is just the tip of the iceberg for the current Android momentum

Ars technica had two articles in the last 3 days which have created quite an excitement on the web (66K+ hits):

  • This is, however, just “the tip of the iceberg”.
  • To understand that you could read first my two previous infonuggets on the subject if you want to grasp the extent of the current Android momentum:
    Beyond Android 2.1 [July 4]
    OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1 [July 5]
  • The mobile Internet technology momentum behind the Android in general could be well understood from my another infonugget:
    3.9G TD-LTE rollout in 2012 with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G? [July 19]
  • In addition, Android has just joined the ranks of the 1st tier cloud client software platforms, as has been indicated recently by my another infonugget, titled:
    E-reading SaaS wars next to e-reader wars [June 30]
  • Finally, below is the whole discussion of Android 2.2 (Froyo) significance which will make the whole “iceberg” completely visible.

Ars reviews Android 2.2 on the Nexus One [July 6], giving the following conclusion about this latest release:

Android 2.2 is an incremental update, but the performance enhancements alone make it an important upgrade for Android enthusiasts. The improved responsiveness and smoother interface transitions really boost the user experience.

Several of the new features—particularly batch updating—offer immediate and obvious benefits. Other features, such as SD storage and cloud backup, aren’t going to start delivering real value until they get broader uptake among Android application developers. I’m particularly enthusiastic about the cloud messaging service—it seems like a capability that will deeply enrich Android and open the door for some innovation in the application development community.

Google’s aggressive development efforts are moving Android forward at a rapid pace. The platform has matured considerably since its initial launch two years ago. The introduction of a JIT [just-in-time compilation] in version 2.2 has largely resolved Android’s performance problems, making it more competitive than ever. As Google works towards version 3.0 and a rumored user interface overhaul, it’s likely that we will see even more innovation.

Android 2.2 demolishes iOS4 in JavaScript benchmarks [July 8] because:

In our recent review [i.e. the previous article] of Android 2.2, we conducted some tests on the Nexus One to measure the extent of the JavaScript performance improvements. SunSpider and V8 benchmarks show that JavaScript execution in Froyo’s Web browser is almost three times faster than in the previous version of the platform.

We compared these findings with that of our tests of Apple’s mobile Safari browser on the iPhone 4. The results show that the Android device delivers significantly faster JavaScript execution than the iPhone, scoring over three times better on V8 and almost twice as fast on SunSpider.

It is worth to combine the results of those two tests in a single chart (recalculated in order to show the performance improvement vs. the performance of the benchmark on the Nexus One with Android 2.1 as the baseline):

The performance improvement is especially remarkable for v8 benchmark which is quite understandable since the V8 Benchmark Suite by Google is:

… a suite of pure JavaScript benchmarks that we have used to tune V8 [JavaScript engine brought to the Android browser as part of 2.2]. …

With this the browser in Android 2.2 (Froyo) is having the same JavaScript performance as Google’s mainstream browser since:

V8 is Google’s open source, high performance JavaScript engine. It is written in C++ and is used in Google Chrome, Google’s open source browser. [see: V8 JavaScript Engine]

SunSpider is just delivering about half of the performance improvement of the V8 benchmark suite which could be because:

This [SunSpider] test mostly avoids microbenchmarks, and tries to focus on the kinds of actual problems developers solve with JavaScript today, and the problems they may want to tackle in the future as the language gets faster [see: SunSpider JavaScript Benchmark].

Note: The main characteristics of a microbenchmark are the following:
• Small program
– Datasets may be large
• All time spent in a few lines of code
• Performance depends on how those few lines are compiled
• Goal: Discover some particular fact
• Remove all other variables
[See: slide #8 of the How NOT To Write A Microbenchmark presentation from JavaOne 2002]
The V8 benchmark suite used for tuning the engine might be more “microbenchmarkish” than the SunSpider benchmark which is explicitly trying to avoid microbenchmarking!

Developers of Android are themselves declaring that:

This has resulted in a 2-3X improvement in JavaScript performance vs. 2.1. See: Android 2.2 and developers goodies [May 10, 2010].

which seems to well correspond to the performance improvement result by the SunSpider benchmark suite.

Ars technica, however, didn’t carry out benchmarking of the Java engine used in Android 2.2 (so called Dalvik, which is not a regular JVM) albeit vast majority of Android applications are coded in Java, and:

The new Dalvik JIT [just-in-time] compiler in Android 2.2 delivers between a 2-5X performance improvement in CPU-bound code vs. Android 2.1 according to various benchmarks.

This is from the same, Android 2.2 and developers goodies [May 10, 2010] blog post which contains other significant improvements from developers’ point of view as well.

Endnote: My statement in the name of the post, that the type of Android 2.2 (Froyo) excitement shown by Ars technica is “just the tip of the iceberg” is even more true from software developers’ perspective. A lot of professional developers in technologically well established and long mature camps, like Microsoft .NET and JVM based enterprise Java / community developed application frameworks (eg. Spring), are considering the Android framework quite underperforming and immature. I’ve met even misunderstanding among them, that Android is programmed in JavaSript or even C++.

With the introduction of Dalvik JIT there are no more reasons to underrate Android (2.2 and above)! To dismiss the wrong belief of “JavaScript and C++ only” programming myth for Android I am usually providing the following links and quotes as well:

http://developer.android.com/guide/basics/what-is-android.html

Android includes a set of core libraries that provides most of the functionality available in the core libraries of the Java programming language.

… Android includes a set of C/C++ libraries used by various components of the Android system. These capabilities are exposed to developers through the Android application framework.

Since June 2009 there is also a Native Development Kit (NDK) for which it is good to know that:

Android applications run in the Dalvik virtual machine. The NDK allows you to implement parts of your applications using native-code languages such as C and C++. This can provide benefits to certain classes of applications, in the form of reuse of existing code and in some cases increased speed.
… Please note that the NDK does not enable you to develop native-only applications. Android’s primary runtime remains the Dalvik virtual machine.
http://developer.android.com/sdk/ndk/index.html

As you know, Android applications run in the Dalvik virtual machine. The NDK allows developers to implement parts of these applications using native-code languages such as C and C++.
http://android-developers.blogspot.com/2009/06/introducing-android-15-ndk-release-1.html

… the NDK is a companion to the SDK that provides tools to generate and embed native ARM machine code within your application packages. This native code has the same restrictions as the VM code, but can execute certain operations much more rapidly. This is useful if you’re doing heavy computations, digital processing, or even porting existing code bases written in C or C++.
http://android-developers.blogspot.com/2009/09/now-available-android-16-ndk.html

Finally, the use of JavaScript requires absolutely different considerations, namely: Building Android Apps with HTML, CSS, and JavaScript, extensively elaborated in a so named and actually excellent book under development (and hence available online as just linked) by Jonathan Shark, which has a Chapter 1 with the following observations (to get a feeling of difference):

What is a Web App?

To me, a web app is basically a web site that is specifically optimized for use on a smartphone. The site content could be anything from a standard small business brochure site to a mortgage calculator to a daily calorie tracker–the content is irrelevant. The defining characteristics of a web app are that the user interface is built with web standard technologies, it is available at a URL (public, private, or perhaps behind a login), and it is optimized for the specifics of a mobile device. A web app is not installed on the phone, it is not available in the Android Market, and it is not written with Java.

What is a Native App?

In contrast, native apps are installed on the Android phone, they have access to the hardware (speakers, accelerometer, camera, etc.), and they are written with Java. The defining characteristic of a native app, however, is that it’s available in the Android Market–a feature that has captured the imagination of a horde of software entrepreneurs worldwide, me included.

Which Approach is Right for You?

Here’s where it gets exciting. The always-online nature of the Android phone creates an environment where the lines between a web app and a native app get blurry. There are even some little known features of the Android web browser that allow you to take a web app offline if you want.What’s more, several third party projects–of which PhoneGap is the most notable–are actively developing solutions that allow web developers to take a web app and package it as a native app for Android and other mobile platforms.

For me, this is the perfect blend. I can write in my native language, release a product as a pure web app (for Android and any other devices that have a modern browser), and use the same code-base to create an enhanced native version that can access the device hardware and potentially be sold in the Android Market. This is a great way to create a “fremium” model for your app – allow free access to the web app, and charge for the more feature-rich native version.

OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1

… the carrier announced on Monday it was preparing to establish its Ophone Innovation Alliance, said Bill Huang, general manager of the China Mobile Research Institute.

“Our Ophone strategy is constantly moving forward,” Huang said during in a speech at a conference in Beijing. Huang did not give any specific details about the alliance, but encouraged potential partners to participate once more information is publicized. The company has spent over a year planning the alliance.

The announcement follows China Mobile’s effort to promote its OMS in April, when Huang urged developers in Taiwan to build more mobile applications for the operating system. At the time, Huang said there were around 600 apps developed specifically for Ophones. In contrast, Apple’s App Store features more than 300,000 third-party applications.

Building less expensive smartphones without sacrificing quality is critical to China Mobile’s business strategy, Huang added. “If we can effectively make an advanced smartphone less expensive, then more users will come to use China Mobile’s services in a shorter amount of time,” he said.

China Mobile is also working to introduce more middle and higher-end smartphones for its 3G network, said company chairman Wang Jianzhou during a speech at the conference.

While China Mobile may have a relatively small number of applications for OMS, the company’s app store continues to gain in popularity. Since it opened in 2009, the carrier’s Mobile Market has recorded 70 million downloads, Wang said. The store features apps and multimedia downloads for different mobile operating systems.

  • Update: Despite of recent reports on weakening OPhone support within China Mobile (see the below update) there are newer reports pointing just to the opposite direction:
    China Mobile to procure 6 million TD-SCMA handsets, says Chinese media [Oct 8]: “Of the total, 3.6 million will be of entry-level models and 2.4 million mid-range products. … the latest procurement effort is largely due to the fourth phase of the China Mobile’s TD-SCMA network construction. When completed, demand for TD-SCMA end-use products is expected to increase substantially.”
    China market: Inexpensive TD-SCDMA handsets to be available in 4Q10 [Oct 13]: “Pushed by China Mobile, TD-SCDMA handsets and smartphones at retail prices of about 500 yuan (US$75) and 1,000 yuan respectively will be available in the China market in the fourth quarter of 2010. … China Mobile is setting up its fourth-phase TD-SCDMA network of more than 100,000 base stations and expects the number of TD-SCDMA subscribers to increase from 13.42 million currently to 100 million in 2012.”
    China Mobile: 4G network coming soon [Sept 15] is stating that “4G data card is close to debut and the carrier and partners are working on the research of 4G handset chip … China Mobile is expected to launch 4G mobile communication services as early as 2011 to boost its high-margin data services, according to the GSM Association.”
    China Mobile to set up device sourcing company [Sept 17] is telling that “The planned device-sourcing company will begin to purchase TD-SCDMA-enabled feature phones with prices below 1,000 yuan (US$148) at the end of the year and then shift to smartphones priced below 2,000 yuan in the first half of 2011“.
  • Update: OPhone fails to connect [Aug 24] which reports that with the change of leadership in June all the technology initiatives started under the previous GM and managed by Bill Huang (Huang Xiaoqing), head of  China Mobile’s Research Institute, will get less support — this is the case of OPhone — or even have been put on hold — the case of mobile payment project. Reasons are the insufficient progress. The estimations are, for example, that OPhone sales are less than half of the number of iPhones bought in China. Quite important article on what is going inside China Mobile.

OPhone 2.0 Platform Debuts in Beijing [June 28]
Samsung first to unveil handset for oPhone 2.0 [June 29] – important to note: “Nokia is also planning a smartphone for the carrier using the oPhone overlay and hardware specs, but running on Symbian.”
Samsung I7680 (Oscar) parameters – Google translated from Chinese
The world’s first mobile phone Samsung I7680 evaluation OMS 2.0 [July 1] Google translated from Chinese
Page 3: Fusion Android 2.1, OMS 2.0 magnificent transfiguration [From Android2.1 transfiguration OPhone2.0 evaluation Samsung I7680] – [5 July] all Google translated from Chinese

The developer of the platform is the Beijing based Borqs: http://borqs.com/index.jsp. They describe the OPhone OS (short for Open Mobile Phone Operating System) platform here: About OPhone OS. See also the recent interview with their CEO: BORQS Ophone OS & more & the China mobile revolution [May 27], important to note: “Borqs is the only company that has done significant Android customization.”

But the supporter is the world largest mobile phone company: China Mobile wants Android apps for its Ophones [April 7], launching the first version of the platform last year: China Mobile Ophone hopes [Sept 1, 2009], China Mobile Launches OPhone [Sept 1, 2009], China’s first OPhone-based mobile phone hits market [16 Dec, 2009]. The last, OMS 1.5 was Android 1.5 based: OPhone SDK 1.5 New features and API changes ENG.1 [Nov 19, 2009].

Note [updated with June data on July 20]: The 3G customer base of the China Mobile is still embryonic with just 1.9% (10.46 million) of the overall number of customers (554 million) at the end of June 2010. Also this number has not been increased significantly for the last 18 month, as shown by the chart below. Meanwhile the rival China Unicom has 4.8% (7.56 million) of the 2G+3G customer base (157 million) on 3G (by end of June 2010):

Another rival, China Telecom, is not publishing 3G numbers. The MIIT* Q1’CY10 3G numbers for China Telecom (CDMA2000) were 5.57 million, i.e. 8.5% of their total CDMA subscriber base (65.45 million).
*Ministry of Industry and Information Technolog
y

Overall 3G market share in Q1’CY10 according to the above MIIT report:  42.5% China Mobile, 30.8% China Telecom, 26.7% China Unicom. For end of May a China Telecom “official said it now has between 6 million and 7 million 3G subscribers”, i.e. about the same number as China Unicom (6.5 million).

The follow-up MIIT report for end of June 2010 is indicating 7.18 million 3G subscribers for China Telecom. When combined with the company’s July 20 stock market closing report this would be 9.6% of their total CDMA subscriber base (74.52 million). Overall 3G market share at the end of H1’CY10 corresponding to the follow-up MIIT report would be: 41.5% China Mobile (-1% vs. Q1’CY10), 28.5% China Telecom (-2.3% vs. Q1’CY10), 30% China Unicom (+3% vs. Q1’CY10). A significant gain for the W-CDMA!

The 3G numbers in China are well below of other geographies. See: Could China close the gap in mobile Internet? It should! [July 21] The Chinese government and all the three mobile operators are therefore making extraordinary efforts to close the gap between China and the rest of the world.

There is also an OPhone SDN (OPhone Software Developer Network) community site: http://www.ophonesdn.com/. Here you can find the OPhone SDK Documentation in English, currently for v1.5: http://www.ophonesdn.com/documentation/index. The rest is in Chinese.

The platform is also going out of the mainland China:
first, to Taiwan
: Taiwan-based III to cooperate with China Mobile to develop OPhone [brief, June 10], China, Taiwan agree on Android, Ophone, WiMax, TD-LTE, more [detailed, June 10]
then to US and RoW: China’s OPhone to find its way to US as Android+ [May 28, 2010]

China, Taiwan agree on Android, Ophone, WiMax, TD-LTE, more

Beyond Android 2.1

UnwiredView: Android 3.0 Gingerbread details: 1280×760 resolution, 1Ghz minimum specs, mid-Oct. release [Jun 30]
then: Revisiting Android 3/Gingerbread details post. Some corrections, clarifications [July 2]

Between these two original English posts has been an avalanche like reporting and discussion (almost half million hits!) of the Android future, all based on this source alone (directly or much more indirectly).
Note: The funny thing is that UnwiredView’s Staska (definitely a Russian speaker) has used as a trusted source the [30:36 – 38:45] time duration part of the Russian podcast Айфономания, серия четвертая, Выпуск 19 (or this one). One thing I would include here from that podcast: “As of today the number of daily Android activations has reached 160 thousands. With this Android will be #2 behind Symbian before the end of 2010”.

This is a typical reporting based on the UnwiredView source:
Android 3.0 may ship in mid-October, carry minimum specs [Electronista, June 30] originally named: Google may fork Android 3 to guarantee experience
which – however – worth to mention here because it has a whole chain of links to previous/other posts on the pressing issues with current Android versions, and these
also validate very much the original rumor (indepedent of its origin)
Android 3.0 to hasten the end of custom UIs? [Electronista, June 16], originally named: Android’s Gingerbread may hurt HTC Motorola
Android Team “Laser Focused” On The User Experience For Next Release [TechCrunch, June 16]
Android to end app fragmentation by 3.0? [Electronista, March 29], originally named: Android to detach core apps from OS updates
Exclusive: Android Froyo to take a serious shot at stemming platform fragmentation [Engadget, March 29]
Sprint Android 2.2 plans trigger outrage, highlight OS woes [Electronista, June 25] originally named: Evo 4G and other Sprint phones reach 2.2 soon
Sprint expects to launch Android 2.2 in near future [Sprint News, June 25]
Adobe posts Flash 10 for Android, leaks Android 2.2 upgrades [Electronista, June 22] originally named: Adobe outs mobile Flash 10 only for android 2.2
HTC promises Android 2.2 updates in 2010 [Electronista, May 20] originally named: Froyo coming to company’s latest Android phones
Samsung won’t upgrade Behold II, shows Android fragmentation [Electronista, May 28, 2010] originally named: Samsung says Behold II can’t go past Android 1.6

Mobile search SaaS battle

Excellent essay on the subject by Krishna Subramarian on TechCrunch:
Clash of the Titans: The Battle To Become The Mobile Search Leader.

The essence is well summarized in the introduction:

Mobile search is still one of the big unclaimed prizes on the mobile web. Everyone from Google and Yahoo to Apple is going after it, but Microsoft’s Bing may stealthily become the king of the castle by aggressively promoting Bing through mobile apps. Let’s look at each player’s mobile search strategy.

Update: there is a specific battle under formation in China which could significantly alter the worldwide search SaaS battlefield as well
China Mobile Challenges Baidu With Plans for Online Search [Sept 16] which is making the mobile operators’ position pretty clear by observing that: « The operator joins carriers in the U.S., Europe and Japan in turning to data services to spur earnings as the Chinese phone market saturates. “For China Mobile to get a meaningful contribution from new businesses, they really have to turn into big successes to make a difference, as the company is so big,” said Jim Tang, who rates the stock “neutral” at Shenyin Wanguo Securities in Shanghai. “China Mobile gets about 70 percent of its revenue from voice, and growth is completely flat there.” »
China Mobile: 4G network coming soon [Sept 15] is stating that “4G data card is close to debut and the carrier and partners are working on the research of 4G handset chip … China Mobile is expected to launch 4G mobile communication services as early as 2011 to boost its high-margin data services, according to the GSM Association.”
China Mobile to set up device sourcing company [Sept 17] is telling that “The planned device-sourcing company will begin to purchase TD-SCDMA-enabled [3G] feature phones with prices below 1,000 yuan (US$148) at the end of the year and then shift to smartphones [likely with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G] priced below 2,000 yuan in the first half of 2011″.

Background information on this blog:
3.9G TD-LTE rollout in 2012 with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G? [July 19, with updates till Sept 17 and beyond]
OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1 [July 5, with updates till Sept 17 and beyond]

The operator joins carriers in the U.S., Europe and Japan in turning to data services to spur earnings as the Chinese phone market saturates.

“For China Mobile to get a meaningful contribution from new businesses, they really have to turn into big successes to make a difference, as the company is so big,” said Jim Tang, who rates the stock “neutral” at Shenyin Wanguo Securities in Shanghai. “China Mobile gets about 70 percent of its revenue from voice, and growth is completely flat there.”