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A too early assesment of the emerging ‘Windows 8’ dev & UX functionality
Update on the recent craze in mass media to call the new era “post-PC” by Frank X. Shaw Microsoft Corporation [19 Aug 2011 3:37 PM]:
Where the PC is headed: Plus is the New “Post”
In the past year, and again in the past few weeks, I’ve seen a resurgence of the term “post” applied to the PC in a number of stories including The Wall Street Journal, PC World and the Washington Post. Heck, I even mentioned it in my 30th anniversary of the PC post, noting that “PC plus” was a better term.
…
… eReaders, Tablets, Smartphones, Set top boxes, aren’t PC killers, but instead are complementary devices. They are each highly optimized to do a great job on a subset of things any PC can also do. …
…
I’ll be the first to admit that these new “non-PC” objects do a great job at enabling people to communicate and consume in innovative and interesting ways. That’s not surprising, because they were expressly designed for that purpose. But even their most ardent admirers will not assert that they are as good as PCs at the first two verbs, create and collaborate. And that’s why one should take any reports of the death of the PC with a rather large grain of salt. Because creating and collaborating are two of the most basic human drives, and are central to the idea of the PC. They move our culture, economy and world forward. You see their fingerprints in every laboratory, startup, classroom, and community.
At Microsoft, we envision a future where increasingly powerful devices of all kinds will connect with cloud services to make it all the more easier for us social beings to create, communicate, collaborate and consume information. I encourage you to tune into our BUILD conference in mid-September where our vision for this world of devices will become clearer.
Update on development timeframe by Steven Sinofsky Microsoft Corporation [17 Aug 2011 11:48 PM]:
@TrooperKal — we finished Windows 7 in July of 2009 and had started our long lead work on Windows 8 a little before that. That’s similar to how we worked on Windows 7 relative to the previous release.
[Re: TroperKal’s question: “It is pretty obvious from your team structure and the already discussed features of v.8 that work has been underway for some time. Just for curiosity’s sake, when did work properly begin on this new version?” ]
June 20-24:
Windows 8 for software developers: the Longhorn dream reborn? [by Peter Bright, June 23, 2011]
…
Windows 8 will ship with a pair of runtimes; a new .NET runtime (currently version stamped 4.5), and a native code C++ runtime (technically, COM, or a derivative thereof), named WinRT. There will be a new native user interface library, DirectUI, that builds on top of the native Direct2D and DirectWrite APIs that were introduced with Windows 7. A new version of Silverlight, apparently codenamed Jupiter, will run on top of DirectUI. WinRT and DirectUI will both be directly accessible from .NET through built-in wrappers.
WinRT provides a clean and modern API for many of the things that Win32 does presently. It will be, in many ways, a new, modern Win32. The API is designed to be easy to use from “modern” C++ (in contrast to the 25 year old, heavily C-biased design of Win32); it will also map cleanly onto .NET concepts. In Windows 8, it’s unlikely that WinRT will cover everythingWin32 can do—Win32 is just so expansive that modernizing it is an enormous undertaking—but I’m told that this is the ultimate, long-term objective. And WinRT is becoming more and more extensive with each new build that leaks from Redmond.
WinRT isn’t just providing a slightly nicer version of the existing Win32 API, either. Microsoft is taking the opportunity to improve the API’s functionality, too. The clipboard API, for example, has been made easier to use and more flexible. There will also be pervasive support for asynchronous operations, providing a clean and consistent way to do long-running tasks in the background.
DirectUI is built around a core subset of current WPF/Silverlight technology. It includes support for XAML, the XML language for laying out user interfaces, and offers the rich support for layouts that Win32 has never had. This core will give C++ programs their modern user interface toolkit and, at its heart, it will be the same toolkit that .NET developers use too. (DirectUI is a name Microsoft has used before, internally, for a graphics library used by Windows Live Messenger. The new DirectUI appears to be unrelated.)
Jupiter is essentially Silverlight 6; a fully-featured, flexible toolkit for building applications. The exact relationship between DirectUI and Jupiter isn’t entirely clear at the moment. It’s possible that they’re one and the same—and that DirectUI will grow in functionality until it’s able to do everything that Silverlight can do. It’s also possible that DirectUI will retain only core functionality, with a more complete framework built on top of its features. Another option is that Jupiter refers specifically to immersive, full-screen, touch-first applications.
XAML and the WPF-like, Silverlight-like way of developing GUIs are going to be absolutely central to Windows development in the future. Testament to their new importance is a reorganization that occurred at the start of this week. Instead of operating under DevDiv’s roof, the XAML team has been broken into three parts. The group working on XAML and related technology for use in Windows has moved to WinDiv, and the group working on it for Windows Phone, Xbox, and the browser plugin has moved to Windows Phone. Only the group that works on the developer tools—including Visual Studio and Expression Blend—is staying behind in DevDiv. The internal Microsoft e-mail announcing the change notes that the XAML team has been working with the Windows team for the duration of Windows 8’s development; this move simply makes them a formal part of the UI team.
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What of HTML5 and JavaScript? They’ll be an option too. Microsoft has ventured down the HTML application path before, with its HTAtechnology. HTAs—HTML Applications—are packages of HTML, JavaScript, CSS, and other resources that run in a special trusted mode. The normal constraints that regular HTML webpages are governed by—for instance, an inability to access local resources—don’t apply to HTAs: HTAs can write to the file system, access arbitrary network resources, and more. In other words, they’re webpages stripped of some of the limitations that make webpages unsuitable replacements for desktop applications.
New-style HTML5 immersive applications won’t be distributed as HTAs, but many of the same principles are likely to apply. Like HTAs before them, they’ll gain greater access to operating system functionality than regular webpages—so they’ll be able to call Windows APIs and have a user interface that feels less like a webpage, more like a native application. Feature-wise, they should be at the same level as .NET and native programs. It’s just that they’ll use an HTML5 programming model and JavaScript. The net result should be something that’s familiar to Web developers, but without the functional deficits that Web applications normally suffer.
Far from being a developer disaster, Windows 8 should be a huge leap forward: a release that threatens to make development a pleasure for native, managed, and Web developers alike. The unification of the .NET and native worlds; the full hardware acceleration; the clean, modern APIs; Avalon as the primary solution for creating Windows UIs—this is what Longhorn’s WinFX promised all those years ago, and this time around it looks like it might actually happen.
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Microsoft splits up its XAML team: What’s the fallout? [June 23, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
… Microsoft on June 20 split up its XAML team, sending part of it to Windows, part to Windows Phone and leaving part in the Developer Division, according to an e-mail from Developer Division chief Soma Somasegar dated June 20. …
From: S. Somasegar
Sent: Monday, June 20, 2011
To: Client and Mobile Team
Cc: Developer Division FTE; Steven Sinofsky; Julie
Larson-Green; Terry Myerson; David Treadwell
Subject: Bringing together client platform effortsMICROSOFT CONFIDENTIAL
Over the last couple of years, our Client and Mobile team has done a fantastic job of building a number of XAML related technologies that have been a huge value add to the Microsoft client platforms and an instrumental part of delighting our developer customers. The agility and customer focus that the team has demonstrated over the years has been a pleasure to watch.
Today, we are making some organization changes to bring our platform technologies under a single management structure. These changes are centered around three focus areas:
• The team working on XAML technologies for Windows will move to Windows.
• The team working on XAML technologies for Windows Phone, Xbox and browser plugin will move to Windows Phone. [Microsoft Mobile Communications Business is now the Windows Phone Division [by Mary Jo Foly in ZDNET, June 16, 2011]]
• The Client and Mobile tools teams, including Windows Phone tools and XAML tools, will stay in DevDiv.
These changes are all effective immediately. From a performance review perspective, we will do this year’s performance review underthe DevDiv organization model.
I want to thank Kevin Gallo [publicly so far: General Manager on Silverlight, he was originally writing the graphics engine of WPF but by 2007 was already product unit manager for Silverlight, now he has been moved to the Windows Phone where the Silverlight heritage will continue to live] and the team for all the great work that they have done over the years. Moving forward, I’m very excited to bring the client platform efforts closer to the platform teams. There is a lot of very exciting and critical work underway as part of our next wave of platform releases and I am very eagerly looking forward to seeing the team’s work in the hands of our developers and customers.
The follow-up emails will provide more details on thechanges to those impacted. Please join me in wishing Kevin and the team all the very best as we move forward. If you have any questions about this change, please let your manager or me know.
-somasegar
Please welcome the XAML platform team to Windows! [by Scott Barnes, June 24, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
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From: Julie Larson-Green Sent: Monday, June 20, 2011 9:35 AM To: Grant George; Jon DeVaan; Julie Larson-Green; John Cable; Yves Neyrand; Craig Fleischman; Bambo C. Sofola; Scott Herrboldt; Greg Chapman; Julie Bennett; Jeff Johnson; Ales Holecek; Mohammed El-Gammal; Chuck Chan; Michael Fortin; Eric Traut; Jensen Harris; Linda Averett; Alex Simons (WINDOWS); Gabriel Aul; Dennis Flanagan; Iain McDonald; Samuel Moreau; Dean Hachamovitch; Michael Angiulo; Antoine Leblond; Tami Reller; Chris Jones (WINDOWS LIVE); Jonathan Wiedemann; Ulrike Irmler; Adrianna Burrows Cc: XAML Team; Kevin Gallo; S. Somasegar; Terry Myerson; Sharman Mailloux Sosa; Brad Fringer; Steven Sinofsky
Subject: Please welcome the XAML platform team to Windows!
We’re pleased to announce the transition of the XAML platform team from the Developer Division to the Windows team. While the team has been working side-by-side with the Windows team for the entire project, this step brings them into our team formally.
The team will continue their work on Windows 8 as planned and will join our Developer Experience (DEVX) team. This transition allows us to bring together our platform development team in a single-management structure.
The dev, test, and pm leaders who will be leading the team reporting to AlesH, YvesN, and LindaAv are:
- Sujal Parikh, Development Manager
- Eduardo Leal-Tostado, Test Manager
- Joe Stegman, Group Program Manager
The leads and individuals joining our team are receiving this mail and have received communication on next steps.
These changes in leadership and organization are effective today. For the purposes of finishing out the fiscal year and the performance review process the team will operate under the existing management structure.
There will be an informal Q&A session today to welcome everyone and answer any questions that folks might have.
– XAML team welcome – 2:00-3:00 in building 37/1701Please join me in welcoming these folks to our organization! Julie…
Somewhat may be related: Non-iPad tablet vendors likely to launch new Wintel-based models to compete with Apple in 2012 [June 24, 2011]
Intel and Microsoft are jointly touting a new Wintel-based platform for tablet PCs, raising hopes among non-iPad tablet PC vendors that they may be able to compete more effectively with Apple in the segment in 2012 with models other than ARM/Android-based products, according to industry sources.
Most non-iPad table PC vendors have been frustrated recently due to lower-than-expected performance of their tablet PCs built with ARM/Android. While attributing the slow sales to the instability of Android and the strong brand image that Apple enjoys, some vendors have also begun mulling new strategies to strengthen their competitiveness.
Knowing the demand from tablet PC vendors, Intel and Microsoft have recently revealed a roadmap for their Wintel platform to production partners, said the sources, noting that the new platform will come with a less than 5W low-power CPU from Intel paired with Microsoft’s Windows 8 OS.
While Intel is also expected to lower prices for its new CPUs, tablet PC vendors also hope that the new Wintel platform will help them tackle the compatibility issues found between Android 3.0 and 3.1.
June 14-21:
Premature cries of Silverlight / WPF skill loss. Windows 8 supports all programming models [by David Burela, June 14, 2011]
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A few people have been digging into the Windows 8 Milestone 3 leak and peeking into the UI framework and .dlls that exist. The most vocal of these have been @JoseFajardo and people in this forum thread http://forums.mydigitallife.info/threads/26404-Windows-8-(7955)-Findings-in-M3-Leak
What people have found so far is that while yes it is possible to create applications using HTML + Javascript, there is a whole new framework laying underneath that can be programmed against by almost any language / framework.
The first piece of the puzzle comes from the new application model for creating applications. There are a number of codenames here that need to be sorted out
- DirectUI: The underlying framework that creates, draws the visual elements on the screen.
- Jupiter: The new packaging format of applications on Windows 8. Allows apps to be written in language of choice.
- Immersive applications: Current theory is that these are apps that execute within the ‘new shell’ in windows 8. And are aware of being split paned and resized. Like was shown with the RSS feed reader.
Direct UI
Direct UI has been around since Windows Vista days. Previous is seemed to be focused around UI basics for the OS such as theming app windows in the ‘new vista style’ vs. classic theming in WinXP. http://blog.vistastylebuilder.com/?tag=directui
Now it seems that Direct UI is being overhauled to have additional functionality to load XAML applications, new animations, etc.
…
Jupiter
interesting rumor fact : WP8 rumored to be codenamed Apollo, and Apollo is the son of Jupiter
Jupiter being the new UI framework of Win8
http://twitter.com/#!/josefajardo/status/78826337250451457…Jupiter is shaping up to be a very very lean SL/WPF implementation
http://twitter.com/#!/josefajardo/status/79423110755008512…your SL/WPF skills will be invaluable for DirectUI apps, and you get a new framework that is seriously lean!!!
http://twitter.com/#!/josefajardo/status/79425349938712577DirectUI.dll is basically Silverlight (agcore.dll) ported to Windows/WinRT
http://forums.mydigitallife.info/threads/26404-Windows-8-(7955)-Findings-in-M3-Leak?p=441627#post441627Jose Fajardo has been a great source of information on Windows 8 leaks. From information he has dug up, as well as information on the forums, it seems that the new Jupiter programming API is a mashup between WPF & Silverlight.
…
While the new Jupiter programming model may not be a direct continuation of WPF or Silverlight it does seem to have a lot of code from both technologies. Jupiter instead seems to be a ‘Next generation’ XAML based framework. A framework that can be targeted against by all main current languages used by the typical .Net developer (C#, HTML, etc)
*speculation* This could be because of the calls from the development community to make WPF & Silverlight more aligned. Perhaps we’ll see an updated ‘Silverlight’ framework when Windows Phone 8 is released that is compatible with Jupiter.
Creating applications with Jupiter
As further evidence that Jupiter applications can be created with your language of choice, and that it has roots in Silverlight, here are some examples of how to create applications.
C# & XAML
Here is an example of using C# to invoke a new Jupiter based application. The really interesting thing to notice here is that the loading screen has the iconic Silverlight loading animation!
…
C++
Example of an application being created in C++ with a single call to CreateImmersiveWindowFunc
…
HTML + Javascript
There are some initial attempts at getting HTML working with the new frameworks. The apps and manifests have been created, but a few more hooks may be required to get a fully working version
http://forums.mydigitallife.info/threads/26404-Windows-8-(7955)-Findings-in-M3-Leak?p=446552&viewfull=1#post446552There are mentions that you can hooks into Direct UI through the COM hooks from Javascript. And also that you may be able to use Direct UI XAML + Javascript. Similar to how Silverlight was done in the original Silverlight version 1.
Immersive applications
There is some confusion over the distinction between a “Jupiter app” and an “Immersive app”. Immersive apps require a call to CreateImmersiveWindow and can make calls to the new immersive namespace
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Immersive applications are ones that were shown to live inside of the new Windows 8 shell. Examples of functions that an immersive app can do can be seen with the RSS reader app. When it was docked and resized, it knew to display its data in a different format.
- Classic / Jupiter applicationswill run in the ‘classic windows’ desktop view that was seen when they fired up excel
- Immersive applications will be embedded within the new shell
Will this work for existing applications?
There is evidence that existing applications can be wrapped up in the new packaging format.
WindowsStore is basically written in C++ and leverages Windows Runtime. HTML5/JavaScript is just a (very very) thin layer for the interface
http://forums.mydigitallife.info/threads/26404-Windows-8-(7955)-Findings-in-M3-Leak?p=442463&viewfull=1#post442463So while existing applications may not run with the new Direct UI framework, it seems they will still be able to be packaged and distributed through the Windows 8 App store. This was discovered by Long Zheng a few months ago.
The AppX format is universal enough so it appears to work for everything from native Win32 applications to framework-based applications (WPF, Silverlight) and even *gasp* web applications. Games are also supported.
http://www.istartedsomething.com/20110405/first-look-at-the-future-of-application-deployment-on-windows-8-appx/Conclusion
While Microsoft only showed off the HTML hooks into Jupiter, I am a LOT more excited about the upcoming XAML based framework.
If you are an existing WPF, Silverlight or Windows Phone 7 developer, it seems that your XAML based skills will carry across fine to the new development framework on Windows 8.
My thoughts are that Microsoft announced that applications can be created in HTML in the same way that they announced it in WindowsXP with active desktop, and then again in Vista with “HTML based sidebar gadgets”. It was a way of saying “hey you can use your existing web skills to create applications on Windows 8.
And that Microsoft plans on unveiling the new Jupiter SL/WPF hybrid framework for all of the “Real developers” at BUILD in 3 months.…
riagenic [Scott Barnes, the harsh critic being a previous insider, see much below] Says:
June 14, 2011 at 7:13 pmHmmm… my memory is flooding mah brain with “remember…” moments… Before I left the team etc I remember hearing the windev teams wanted to put a 3rd Animation framework on the market. At first we laughed and ignored it with “oh great, what well need…a third option to confuse the already converted..”
Now thinking on it more, me thinks its this mystery framework coming to haunt us all. Now, i’m thinking this concept has existed but was already ported across to the XAML way of life around Windows 7 timelines (memory is sketchy on this one). If that’s correct then i think this is an official code-reset on WPF/Silverlight but with reduced capabilities (ie less the bloat).
Question is how mature is it compared to the two? it’s all well and good to throw a FILE->NEW->UX Platform onto the table, but if it lacks parity with the existing? what have we gained?….performance?…i’ll wait until i see how the fundametals found in most photoshop effects filters gets applied here and performs under what i call “developer-art load”….lots of glows, dropshadows and crazy ass animations..
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Win8 M3 (7955) findings relevant to Managed .net & WPF/SL developers [[Jose Fajardo] June 14-17, 2011]
[Forum discussion on comparing WPF UIElement, Silverlight UIElement, WP7 Silverlight UIElement and WinMD(DirectUI)]
@vbandi András Velvárt
Don’t worry abt Silverlight! Jupiter has dep props, similar API & layout logic, RenderTransform, UIElement, etc http://bit.ly/mdL06i [Win8 M3 (7955) findings relevant to Managed .net & WPF/SL developers]
16 Jun via MetroTwit@vbandi András Velvárt
After analysing http://bit.ly/mdL06i , Jupiter SEEMS to me like a customized Silverlight for Win8. Much like SL 4 WP7, but more custom.
16 Jun via MetroTwit…
jmorrill Jeremiah Morrill
@josefajardo @markmacumber The other hard part is these guys are reverse engineering, so they might be looking at some private impls.
16 Junjosefajardo Jose Fajardo
@jmorrill @markmacumber exactly, they could be doing things with the beta bits that it was never intended to do. Wrong assumptions 😉16 Jun
@vbandi András Velvárt
@josefajardo @jmorrill @markmacumber Still better than burying an entire technology based on half a sentence. 🙂
16 Jun via MetroTwit
Continuation of that: Win8 M3 (7989) findings relevant to Managed .net & WPF/SL developers [[Jose Fajardo] June 19-24, 2011]
…
SilverlightWPF [Jose Fajardo] 21 Jun 2011 11:27 AM
Originally Posted by NaiveUser
- God, this article got so many things wrong, or I should say I beg to differ
so here is my take
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/…-trenches/9738 [Under the Windows 8 hood: Questions and answers from the trenches [by Mary Jo Foly in ZDNET, June 20, 2011]]- I guess there are two possible meanings for ‘Jupiter’, it could be the DirectUI.dll, or, it could be the whole api framework that exposed by WinRT/WinMD, includes DirectUI.dll and Windows.*.dll and some more. so basically Jupiter == DirectUI eitherway.
- essentially Windows Runtime is just ‘Modern COM’, which is just an interface for exposing code. its not an actual ‘runtime library’ like CLR. I think you can expose code written with any ‘runtime library’ as WinRT components, just like you can write COM components in C/VC++/VB6/Delphi/.NET/etc.
- DirectUI applications live in a HWND with a class called ‘JupiterWindowClass’ and a caption ‘Jupiter Window’, personally I think this IS strong ‘correlation’ betwwen Jupiter and DirectUI. and, as far as I can see there is ‘no direct correlation’ between DirectUI.dll and the old ‘DirectUI’ in dui70.dll which uses the ‘duixml’ markup.
- and I have never seen any connections between SLR/WCL and ‘everything else’. wcl*.dll exposed as WinRT ? where ? Windows Runtime is the marketing name for the SLR ? where does that come from ?
[Jose Fajardo:]
Jupiter could be an entire ecosystem too, could be the tooling + api that goes into creating jupiter apps.
Jupiter could be the next marketing buzz world, like “Silverlight” was!
Who the hell knows! I know I’m not confident enough to say that Jupiter==DirectUI!
Nor am I confident in saying WindowsRuntime is COM version next..
Regardless it’s all interpretation until MS come out and explain themselves.
Power to you if you can conclude all this, personally I only talk about things i know are factually correct that I’ve chased down to registry settings, code in exe’s/dll’s, or reproduced in code myself.
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June 1 – June 3 and 6:
TINY FACTUAL INFORMATION FROM MICROSOFT
(say just HTML5 for now, not a bit more)
ilyen világos megfogalmazásokban én ezt mondanám:
– amit láttunk és hallottunk a demókban az olyan UX funkcionalitás, ami HTML5 és JavaScript ALAPÚ fejlesztési környezetből érhető el
– azt is láttuk, hogy amikor “az Interneten végzendő teendőkhöz nincsen ehhez az új UX környezethez szabott (“tailored”), új stílusú (“new style”) alkalmazásunk”, akkor az IE9-hez képest “touch first”-re áttervezett IE10-et használjuk
– ebben ugyanúgy vannak “odatűzött” webhelyek (“pinned sites”, vagyis URL-ekkel azonosított webalkalmazások vagy webhelyek), de vagy a Start Screen csemperendszerében vagy egy teljesen új kialakítású, amennyire meg tudom ítélni dinamikusan megjelenő (pl. “Frequent” illetve “Pinned” listák a képernyős billentyű felett) task bar-on helyezkednek el
– az új UX környezethez szabott (új stílusú) alkalmazások a Windows eszközökhöz (facilities) — tehát a natív platform eszközökhöz — is hozzáférhetnek, tehát nincsen két shell, csak egyetlen shell
– ugyanakkor arra a kérdésre, hogy miért nem írja át az Office részleg alkalmazásait erre az új UX környezetre, a konkrét válasz: “Valamit lehetséges, hogy tesznek a jövőben, most azonban az volt a célunk, hogy megmutassuk, nem kell az embereknek a meglévő alkalmazásaikat, melyeket jól ismernek, feladniuk ahhoz, hogy egy mobilabb form factorhoz jussanak. Vagyis az embereknek egy billentyűzetet kell csatlakoztatniuk és használhatják [régi alkalmazásaikat] ugyanúgy, mint eddig.”
The factual details:
Metro styled new entertainment experience on Xbox 360 [June 6, 2011]
Next-generation cloud client experiences based on the Metro design language [Jan 24, 2011]
Metro Design Language of Windows Phone 7 [on-line tutorial from Microsoft, Dec 5, 2010]
Building “Windows 8” – Video #1 [June 1, 2011]
– related press release: Previewing ‘Windows 8’ [June 1, 2011
… a few aspects of the new interface we showed today:
- Fast launching of apps from a tile-based Start screen, which replaces the Windows Start menu with a customizable, scalable full-screen view of apps.
- Live tiles with notifications, showing always up-to-date information from your apps.
- Fluid, natural switching between running apps.
- Convenient ability to snap and resize an app to the side of the screen, so you can really multitask using the capabilities of Windows.
- Web-connected and Web-powered apps built using HTML5 and JavaScript that have access to the full power of the PC.
- Fully touch-optimized browsing, with all the power of hardware-accelerated Internet Explorer 10.
… also talked a bit about how developers will build apps for the new system. Windows 8 apps use the power of HTML5, tapping into the native capabilities of Windows using standard JavaScript and HTML to deliver new kinds of experiences. These new Windows 8 apps are full-screen and touch-optimized, and they easily integrate with the capabilities of the new Windows user interface. There’s much more to the platform, capabilities and tools than we showed today.
… we have much more to reveal at our developer event, BUILD (Sept. 13 – 16 in Anaheim, Calif.)
Microsoft’s Steven Sinofsky, live from D9 [June 1, 2011]
… Oh yeah, we built these in house, but we’re giving devs APIs and an SDK based on HTML5 and Javascript that allows them to create apps like this. We have lots of new tools, but still you can connect to our file tools, etc. … Apps can connect to each other. It’s not just apps alone, it’s applications connecting to each other. … You design for touch, and then we translate the touch commands to mouse and keyboard. …
Microsoft’s Windows 8 Demo From D9 (Video) [June 1, 2011]
Microsoft Unveils ‘Windows 8’ to World on 2011 Computex in Taiwan [June 2, 2011]
– the same with Silverlight Smooth Streaming video: Microsoft Unveils “Windows 8” to World
– the related Microsoft press release on 2011 Computex in Taiwan: Microsoft Previews ‘Windows 8’
Windows 8 NUI GUI Preview Video Shoots Past 2 Million Views the First Day [June 3, 2011]
… everything that users see in the demo videos will actually make it in the RTM Build of Windows 8, otherwise, Steven Sinofsky, President, Windows and Windows Live Division would not have allowed it to be made public, per the translucency communication strategy he implemented even before Windows 7.
In the end, I think it’s a safe bet to expect Sinofsky to underpromise and overachieve with Windows 8, just as he did with Windows 7.
Office and other apps:
Why not the Office team will rewrite the Office into that kind of aproach?
[Walt Mossberg, [6:45-6:51]]
They may do something in the future but we don’t think people should give up everything they know online just to get to a more mobile form factor. So people can plug-in a keyboard and use just like they would use otherwise.
[Julie Larson-Green [6:51-7:06]]
Windows 8: It’s the Applications, Stupid! [June 3, 2011]
It’s a huge question. While Larson-Green said that the current version of Office would behave in touch-friendly fashion in Windows 8, it’s obvious that it’s not going to feel like it was written for the new interface. (You could tell that when she fumbled with Excel as she tried to drag it off-screen with her fingertip.)
I imagine that the real answer to Walt and Kara’s queries is that yes, of course, Microsoft is going to reimagine Office for Windows 8. But even then, it’s not obvious whether the company is going to give Office a truly touch-centric interface as the default. (Sounds hugely risky and probably impossible to do well–all the Office apps are rife with features that will never work well without a mouse and keyboard.) Or mirror what it’s doing with Windows 8 and give Office two different interfaces. (That also sounds extremely tricky.) Or do something akin to what Apple did with its iWork suite, and build a separate version of Office with fewer features and a wholly new interface. (That sounds like it could make sense.)
Every other significant software developer is going to have to deal with similar questions. It’s not yet clear what the right answers are–it’s possible that Windows’ new look will be a bust and it’ll be silly to invest energy in supporting it. And the right answers will be different for different companies. But ignoring Windows 8 won’t be an option.
Could You Turn A Windows 8 Smartphone Into A Windows 8 Computer? [June 2, 2011]
I caught Sinofsky after his D9 talk and asked — would Windows 8, the full-blown operating system, be running on future phones?
Sinofsky smiled, and smiled big, but he only said that’s not something Microsoft has announced yet. So, we wait to see.
What if it happens? Getting to that unification “first” doesn’t necessarily mean that Microsoft somehow “wins” in doing so. For one, would it really run that well on phone-sized devices? That remains to be seen.
For another, it also means that Windows 7 Phone users would be upgrade-orphaned. The apps they have for that platform probably wouldn’t run on Windows 8 devices.
BUILD:
Does this [BUILD] event replace PDC this year and in the future?
Dr. Know said on June 2, 2010
BUILD isn’t a replacement of the PDC but a new event that takes a broader view of a developer community that now extends far beyond the realm of just “pro developers”. From hardware, to the web, to software and the PC … BUILD is the key developer event you should attend in 2011 (there won’t be a PDC this year).
Jennifer Ritzinger [Microsoft] said on June 3, 2010
BUILDing a bright future [June 1, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
… At BUILD, Microsoft will show off the new app model that enables the creation of web-connected and services-powered apps that have access to the full power of the PC.
The conference name, BUILD, reflects a call to action for the more than one hundred million developers driving the pace of technology: build experiences with the next version of Windows that will transform the computing experience for billions of people across the globe. …
Today, everyone can be a developer; the most tech-savvy generation we’ve ever seen is fueling demand for new tools and technologies. Many of the developers building web sites and apps that make an impact have no formal education in computer science or engineering. BUILD will be a gateway to new opportunity for all developers.
The professional developer community continues to be a vital part of the Microsoft ecosystem. We value the longstanding and deep relationship with this group and will continue to engage with this important audience in a way that best meets its needs. For these developers, BUILD connects Microsoft’s past to Microsoft’s future.
June 1 – June 6:
UPHEAVAL OF ENORMOUS PROPORTIONS (or more questions than answers)
- Food for harsh criticism because of absolutely no communication for the previous dev stories [ENORMOUS LENGTH]
- From a quite opinionated but quite unsatisfied previous insider: http://twitter.com/#!/MossyBlog[ENORMOUS LENGTH]
Food for harsh criticism because of absolutely no communication for the previous dev stories:
Windows 8: A missed opportunity. [June 3, 2011]
So the rumors were true. Microsoft was planning to radically reimagine Windows as we knew it. It would feature a modern, fluid touch interface, it was to be heavily inspired by Metro on Windows Phone, and it was to have an app store.
Good. Right? Not exactly. Its a bitter sweet outcome, because another rumor ended up being true. This one started by Scott Barnes, the sometimes controversial, seemingly always right former Silverlight PM. This rumor said that there was an internal struggle inside Microsoft, and the factions at war were the .NET/Wpf/Silverlight heads versus the Windows division heads.
The war is over. We lost. In an ironic, but telling turn of events, hot of the heels of the Mono guys forming a start up based around .NET, the inventors of the technologies themselves have seemingly given up on the platform.
Sounds dramatic, even outlandish right? Well so did the rumors about Silverlight, WPF, et all’s death. Yet here we are, and its sad because it represents a monumental missed opportunity.
Consider the following:
Microsoft had rare opportunity to throw backwards compatibility to the wind and make a clean cut. A fresh start. A new Windows.
Microsoft had the chance then to simplify and unify their developer story. Slim down .NET, remove the legacy cruft (Winform, older depreciated APIs) and simply call it “Silverlight”. Make it the de facto development platform on Windows, like it is on Windows Phone.
Say to developers: Here’s our Windows App store. The ONLY way to get published on the app store is to write a cross platform Silverlight application. This application will work on x86, x64, and ARM based environments. Its resolution independent, completely hardware accelerated, and secure.
You do many things at once: You simplify, unify, and move forward your developer story. You ensure a verifiable, secure execution environment on Windows 8. You solve the cross platform problem. You KEEP YOUR DEVELOPERS HAPPY. People who have invested years into your technologies do not appreciate being essentially shown the door.
Its fine to embrace HTML5/JS, if web developers want to cause themselves pain, then hey, thats them. Do NOT subject your loyal, devoted, armies of developers to the horrors of the web platform.
Microsoft: WTF?
We dont just need to #fixwpf, we need to #fixwindows8.
Microsoft refuses to comment as .NET developers fret about Windows 8 [Tim Anderson, June 3, 2011]
There is a long discussion over on the official Silverlight forum about Microsoft’s Windows 8 demo at D9 and what was said, and not said; and another over on Channel 9, Microsoft’s video-centric community site for developers.
At D9 Microsoft showed that Windows 8 has a dual personality. In one mode it has a touch-centric user interface which is an evolved version of what is on Windows Phone 7. In another mode, just a swipe away, it is the old Windows 7, plus whatever incremental improvements Microsoft may add. Let’s call it the Tiled mode and the Classic mode.
Pretty much everything that runs on Windows today will likely still run on Windows 8, in its Classic mode. However, the Tiled mode has a new development platform based on HTML and JavaScript, exploiting the rich features of HTML 5, and the fast JavaScript engine and hardware acceleration in the latest Internet Explorer.
Although D9 is not a developer event, Microsoft did talk specifically about this aspect. Here is the press release:
- Today, we also talked a bit about how developers will build apps for the new system. Windows 8 apps use the power of HTML5, tapping into the native capabilities of Windows using standard JavaScript and HTML to deliver new kinds of experiences. These new Windows 8 apps are full-screen and touch-optimized, and they easily integrate with the capabilities of the new Windows user interface. There’s much more to the platform, capabilities and tools than we showed today.
Program Manager Jensen Harris says in the preview video:
- We introduced a new platform based on standard web technologies
Microsoft made no mention of either Silverlight or .NET, even though Silverlight is used as the development platform in Windows Phone 7, from which Windows 8 Tiled mode draws its inspiration.
The fear of .NET developers is that Microsoft’s Windows team now regards not only Silverlight but also .NET on the client as a legacy technology. Everything will still run, but to take full advantage of Tiled mode you will need to use the new HTML and JavaScript model. Here are a couple of sample comments. This:
- My biggest fears coming into Windows 8 was that, as a mostly WPF+.NET developer, was that they would shift everything to Silverlight and leave the FULL platform (can you write a Visual Studio in Silverlight? of course not, not designed for that) in the dust. To my utter shock, they did something much, much, much worse.
and this:
- We are not Windows developers because we love Windows. We put up with Windows so we can use C#, F# and VS2010. I’ve considered changing the platform many times. What stops me each time is the goodness that keeps coming from devdiv. LINQ, Rx, TPL, async – these are the reasons I’m still on Windows.
Underlying the discussion is that developers have clients, and clients want applications that run on a platform with a future. Currently, Microsoft is promoting HTML and JavaScript as the future for Windows applications, putting every client-side .NET developer at a disadvantage in those pitches.
What is curious is that the developer tools division at Microsoft, part of Server and Tools, has continued to support and promote .NET; and in fact Microsoft is soon to deliver Visual Studio LightSwitch, a new edition of Visual Studio that generates only Silverlight applications. Microsoft is also using Silverlight for a number of its own web user interfaces, such as for Azure, System Center and Windows InTune, as noted here.
Now, I still expect that both Silverlight and native code, possibly with some new XAML-based tool, will be supported for Windows 8 Tiled mode. But Microsoft has not said so; and may remain silent until the Build conference in September according to .NET community manager Pete Brown [response #1 to the Silverlight Forum discussion [06-02-2011 6:44 PM]]:
- You all saw a very small technology demo of Windows 8, and a brief press release. We’re all being quiet right now because we can’t comment on this. It’s not because we don’t care, aren’t listening, have given up, or are agreeing or disagreeing with you on something. All I can say for now is to please wait until September. If we say more before then, that will be great, but there are no promises (and I’m not aware of any plans) to say more right now. I’m very sorry that there’s nothing else to share at the moment. I know that answer is terrible, but it’s all that we can say right now. Seriously.
While this is clearly not Brown’s fault, this is poor developer communication and PR from Microsoft. The fact that .NET and Silverlight champion Scott Guthrie is moving to Windows Azure is no comfort.
The developer division, and in fact the whole of Server and Tools, has long been a bright spot at Microsoft and among its most consistent performers. The .NET story overall includes some bumps, but as a platform for business applications it has been a remarkable success. The C# language has evolved rapidly and effectively under the guidance of Technical Fellow Anders Hejlsberg. It would be bewildering if Microsoft were to turn its back on .NET, even if only on the client.
In fact, it is bewildering that Microsoft is being so careless with this critical part of its platform, even if this turns out to be more to do with communication than technical factors.
From the outside, it still looks as if Microsoft’s server and tools division is pulling one way, and the Windows team the other. If that is the case, it is destructive, and something CEO Steve Ballmer should address; though I imagine that Steven Sinofsky, the man who steered Windows 7 to launch so successfully, is a hard person to oppose even for the CEO.
Update: Journalist Mary Jo Foley has posted [June 6] on what she “hears from my contacts” about Jupiter:
- Jupiter is a user interface library for Windows and will allow developers to build immersive applications using a XAML-based approach with coming tools from Microsoft. Jupiter will allow users a choice of programming languages, namely, C#, Visual Basic and C++.
Jupiter, presuming her sources are accurate, is the managed code platform for the new Windows shell – “Tiled mode” or “Tailored Apps” or “Modern Shell – MoSH”; though if that is the case, I am not sure whether C++ in this context will compile to managed or unmanaged code. Since Silverlight is already a way to code using XAML, it is also not clear to me whether Jupiter is in effect a new Windows-only version of Silverlight, or yet another approach.
Microsoft needs to tell Windows 8 developers now about ‘Jupiter’ and Silverlight [Mary Jo Foley, June 6, 2011]
I’ve blogged before about the XAML layer that Microsoft is building for Windows 8 as part of its “Jupiter” initiative. Yes, it still exists, I hear from my contacts. And yes, this will enable support of native Silverlight applications. (Does this mean Windows Phone apps written using Silverlight will be able to run on Windows 8 with no/few tweaks? I don’t know.)
…
Microsoft is still going to support Silverlight with Windows 8, and not only as a browser plug-in, my sources say.
At the 50,000-foot level, Microsoft wants to find a way to reinvigorate the Windows-development ecosystem. (I believe that’s one reason the Internet Explorer team has been talking all that “native HTML” nonsense. They really mean they’re trying to get developers to write HTML/JavaScript apps that use IE’s hardware acceleration for the “best” HTML experience.)
…
At the more granular and immediate level, Jupiter is the way that Microsoft is planning to get developers to write new “immersive” applications for Windows 8 that will use the IE 10 rendering engine while using the .Net and Silverlight technologies they already know. Jupiter is aiming to provide these developers with a managed code XAML library, so that developers can access the sensors, networking and other Windows 8 elements in a way to which they’re accustomed.
Applications built using Jupiter won’t be targeting the “classic” mode/shell that Microsoft showed off last week during its Windows 8 preview, I hear. They’ll be the same class of immersive apps targeting the new Modern Shell (MoSH) that Microsoft will be writing itself and/or trying to convince others to write using HTML5 and JavaScript.
It definitely seems Microsoft’s ultimate goal is to wean developers off Silverlight and to convince them to use HTML5 and JavaScript to write new apps for Windows, going forward. But until there’s better tooling for HTML5 (beyond what Microsoft provides via the F12 HTML tools in Internet Explorer), it seems the Softies are going to support .Net and Silverlight via new versions of Visual Studio, the .Net Framework and Expression.
I believe Jupiter is key to enabling Microsoft to continue to insist that Silverlight’s not dead (as far as a development platform) — at least for now. But anything that’s not a new Windows 8 “immersive,” modern application, going forward, is now going to be considered “legacy,” from what I can tell.
All of what I’ve said here is from sources who have asked not to be identified, not from Microsoft officials associated with Microsoft’s Windows or Developer Division. Like many devs I’ve heard from, I don’t believe Microsoft can’t afford to wait three more months to let its developer base know what its intentions are. So far, however, ill-advised silence seems to be the Softies’ plan….
[Pete Brown had a numerous other responses on that thread [Windows 8 apps going html5, wtf [from 06-01-2011 8:06 PM to 06-03-2011 3:23 PM when locked by Pete Brown] as until 3 days later having enormous visibility of 10,030,100 views] but being just kind of moderation responses, including – not a usual thing – editing responses by other for “non-civil” words, and finally closing the first thread and responding to another one with same topic [Windows 8 apps going html5, wtf – part 2 [from 06-03-2011 3:46 PM still on] as until 3 days later having large visibility of 1,118,657 views].
Besides Pete Brown’s responses the enormous bad publicity caused by that huge developers visibility will cost Microsoft quite a lot as Steve Barns nicknamed MossyBlog [See also his other responses after Pete Brown’s responses] remarked quite well on twitter:
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes: 900k views of just “Microsoft you suck” forum warfare.. thats over 500k eyeballs that Microsoft has to repair in min 2 years.. #fail 8 hours ago via web
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josephcooney Joseph Cooney by rickasaurus @ @MossyBlog The stats on this page say it’s 9M going on to 10M http://forums.silverlight.net/forums/17.aspx?PageIndex=3 8 hours agorickasaurus Richard Minerich @ @MossyBlog We had an internal meeting today to discuss if we should discontinue all Silverlight development. It’s that bad.
rickasaurus Richard Minerich @ @MossyBlog Oh yeah, plus all of the Kinect hate they’re getting from E3 8 hours ago
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @rickasaurus oh? i’ve missed reading the E3..on my afternoon todo list… whats the gist of it? 8 hours ago via web
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rickasaurus Richard Minerich @ @MossyBlog Mostly just that hardcore gamers don’t give a toot about Kinect 🙂 8 hours ago
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @rickasaurus i’d prefer to see more info around Kinect beyond gaming and into windows market(s)..well whats left of it post win8 lol 8 hours ago
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @rickasaurus well Kinect as a game platform is really a wii style approach to it.. hardcore gamers arent really a good mkt for it 8 hours ago
@rickasaurus Richard Minerich @MossyBlog Sure, but E3 is a hardcore gamer conference, and MS was all Kinect! Kinect! Kinect! Kineeecccttttttt! 8 hours ago via TweetDeck
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MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @rickasaurus heheh well in Microsoft you ride the new shiny object until it loses its appeal..so they are in the peak of the kinect orgy 8 hours ago
rickasaurus Richard Minerich @ @MossyBlog That’s the MS navel gazing culture for you. They’re so myopic and it drives me insane to watch. 8 hours ago
in reply to ↑
@KristoferA KristoferA @MossyBlog @rickasaurus I presume there will be a JavaScript library for Kinect integration shipping with Win8… HTML + Kinect = Win 🙂 9 hours ago via web
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MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @KristoferA @rickasaurus i can’t wait to combine jQuery and Kinect..it will be awesome… yay.. #celebratemediocrity 8 hours ago
rickasaurus Richard Minerich @ @KristoferA Why not :). That could make for some cool surfing. 8 hours ago
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes Sinofsky’s team need to be fired. thats my thoughts. 8 hours ago via web
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VicKlien Vic Klien @ @MossyBlog – Any counterweights to team-Sinofsky internally? Assuming ScottGu and Soma would have other ideas, I guess they’re outranked. 7 hours ago
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @VicKlien well i always thought @scottgu and team-sinfosky were two dueling titans internally anyway..but bobmu left, scotts in azure..so.. 7 hours ago
VicKlien Vic Klien @ @MossyBlog – The current when-to-reveal issue aside, do we really know Soma and ScottGu don’t also support promoting HTML5/JS above .NET? 7 hours ago
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @VicKlien Of course they support it… just like i support <insert your belief system> when you have a gun to my head 🙂 7 hours ago
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes 9 million is more than that site gets in a year almost… HOLY FUCK… 9 million people all seeing “Silverlight is kinda dead” undercurrent 8 hours ago via web
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traskjd John-Daniel Trask @ @MossyBlog Bet all the advertisers paying per impression on the SL forum are getting great ROI… 8 hours ago
josephcooney Joseph Cooney @ @MossyBlog plus the follow-up post (which is presumably what you saw) is nearly at 1M. That’s a lot of discontent. 8 hours ago
Pete_Brown Pete Brown @ @MossyBlog @josephcooney And there’s an open letter thread with 100k views. Smaller threads too, mostly OT, but I’m letting them stay 8 hours ago
in reply to ↑
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes I feel for guys like @Pete_Brown who later have to clean this shit up. Pete needs to clone himself fast… /cc @josephcooney
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes
I am so glad I’m not a Microsoft Evangelist still.. i mean..fark me.. talk about walking into the lions den. 8 hours ago via web
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes 10 million pageviews so lets assume 50% of that is uniques… 5 million ppl around the world seeing “HTML5 vs JS is the future” undercurrents 8 hours ago via web
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malcolmsheridan Malcolm Sheridan @ @MossyBlog I think you should stop computing and take up gardening! 8 hours ago
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes There goes 3 years+ of hard work around Silverlight branding… nice one Sinofsky you jackass 8 hours ago via web
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jcdickinson Jonathan C Dickinson @ @MossyBlog the whole Win8 + HTML5 thing is easily fixed: <object data=”data:application/x-silverlight-2,”… 🙂 7 hours ago
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes windows internal politically objectives was to make Silverlight / .NET fail.. Mission accomplished.. you just undid 3 years of work in ~1wk 8 hours ago via web
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jtango18 Justin Taylor @ @MossyBlog I think you overestimate the liklihood of MS devs walking away from the platform. 8 hours ago
mstrobel Mike Strobel @ @MossyBlog the Windows team really doesn’t have the clout to effect change of this magnitude; devs aren’t going to abandon .NET for HTML. 8 hours ago
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @mstrobel well that and lets just say we just sized the market of who they have to convince..5 million devs need to believe HTML5 8 hours ago via web
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes 5million+ is now your baseline for html5 convince metrics msft in 2yrs need to say They have more than this in adoption 8 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes What if the Blend team were working on a HTML5 design tool… what would you all say… 😀 8 hours ago via web
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shrage Shrage Smilowitz @ @MossyBlog Html 5 design tool? yea and they’re going to call it Microsoft FrontPage? 7 hours ago
SilverlightMan Noah Addy @ @MossyBlog I would love that idea!!! Spitting out Javascript code for HTML5 development is no fun! 7 hours ago
lazycoder Scott Koon @ @MossyBlog “Please stop” 8 hours ago
KristoferA KristoferA @ @MossyBlog If the new Win8 UI instead was C# + HTML5/MSHTML instead of HTML5+JS then I would be less sceptical about it. 8 hours ago
kitron kitron @ @MossyBlog They better be working on something like that. 8 hours ago
mstrobel Mike Strobel @ @MossyBlog Same thing I said to Blend: no thanks. 8 hours ago
KristoferA KristoferA @ @MossyBlog .net is strong on the language and framework side. UI design tools is only a tiny part of the dev story… 8 hours ago
KristoferA KristoferA @ . @MossyBlog HTML5 and the HTML DOM is *not* the weak part. JavaScript is. A C# compiler that emits JS would be a different story. 8 hours ago
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @KristoferA its possible 😉 …but to what gain? XAML out..HTML5 in? ..what gain? 8 hours ago via web
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KristoferA KristoferA @ @MossyBlog You know that SL and WPF sucks performance wise. If IE can supply a rendering engine that can be used from .net then it is a Win 8 hours ago
KristoferA KristoferA @ @MossyBlog A good app framework (.net fx), a solid language (C#), and a good rendering engine is all I ask for. JS is not a C# replacement. 8 hours ago
KristoferA KristoferA @ @MossyBlog XAML to HTML5 would be status quo. Maybe better performance. But what I am saying is: the UI rendering is a tiny part of apps. 8 hours ago
—————-
mstrobel Mike Strobel @ @MossyBlog Same thing I said to Blend: no thanks. 8 hours ago
mabster Matt Hamilton @ @mstrobel I was shocked at the number of hands (including mine) that went up at #mvp11 when asked who hand-codes XAML. /cc @MossyBlog 8 hours ago
in reply to ↑
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @mabster @mstrobel i stopped being shocked and it grew into frustration.. “if only there was a tool that did that for you?” hmmm.. 8 hours ago via web
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mstrobel Mike Strobel @ @MossyBlog @mabster I mean, would you use a tool that wrote C# code for you? I loathe Blend. Hand-coding w/ R# is so much better IMO. 8 hours ago
mabster Matt Hamilton @ @MossyBlog I’ll try Blend at some point I guess. Hand coding works really well for me. /cc @mstrobel 8 hours ago
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes Heh sinofsky gets on stage and suddenly 10m voices all vanish at once – starwars / sl forum joke Tehehehe 5 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone
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redboltsnz Guy Robinson by MossyBlog @ @MossyBlog bottom line is D9 was about the end UX. Should never have talked about the technology unless they wanted to engage with devs. 3 hours ago
in reply to ↑
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @redboltsnz that’s actually a great insight… i agree! ..they should of just said “this is purty win8”.. 3 hours ago via web
Back to Pete Brown’s real responses: I will consider his first non-moderating response on that as his real response #2 (almost a whole day passed between those, he probably got permission from the above to really respond):]
Pete Brown’s #2 response [06-03-2011 4:30 PM] (Microsoft Community Program Manager – WPF, Silverlight, XNA, Windows Phone, more) (emphasis is mine)
That first link is a gizmodo article [Windows 8 and Its Incredibly Cool New Touch Interface [June 1, 2011]]. Nowhere in there is a microsoft person saying that HTML/Javascript are the exclusive way to write applications. It’s a new way, it’s an exciting way, and, let’s face it, a way that is likely to be hugely popular with web developers.
News outlets make assumptions. I can’t respond to that, neither does MS PR for reasons I don’t entirely fathom.
The press release shows only what we showed that day and is carefully worded to state as much. It doesn’t speak to Windows 8 as a whole.
I’m not a PR person. I don’t know why we word things the way we do, or why we show certain things. I’m just asking folks not to make assumptions here (one way or the other) based on information we haven’t actually shared.
We can’t say anything else until September. Trust me that the previous thread was visible at some of the highest levels inside Microsoft (one reason I edited to remove the trolls and insulting that was a problem and obscuring the message the thread was sending)
To be very clear: I’m not saying anything here other than “wait for //build/” and our press release is the official word until you hear otherwise from PR or top Microsoft leadership. There are no promises being made here. I’m not stating support or lack of support for any specific technology or group of technologies.
Pete Brown’s #3 response [06-03-2011 5:33 PM] (emphasis is mine)
Guys, don’t make it personal. It’s heading down the same road as next time.
Keep it to issues on topic. Keep it civil. Don’t be mean. Be respectful. Remember, we’re all peers here, not enemies.
Pete Brown’s #4 response [06-03-2011 6:32 PM] (emphasis is mine)
g.t.:
We spent 2 years developing a WPF project, and after all what I have seen, I am defiantly going html5 + JavaScript.
This makes zero sense to me and seems reactionary rather than a well-thought-out architectural decision.
You saw that you can write WPF apps for Windows 8. “Existing apps will run”. TBD if they can use the new shell, but they do run in classic mode at a minimum.
While I’ll be happy to be proven wrong, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the majority of internal business applications are not going to make use of the new tile interface in a big way. Why? From my own informal surveys and 15 years in consulting (I’ve been at Microsoft just over 1.5 years), most business users, developers, and managers, are still stuck in “500 fields and a 100 column datagrid” mode when designing apps. It’s rare to find a team with a real UX pro involved up-front and who have the capability, skill, desire (and time/funding) to move beyond that. In addition, many businesses still run XP, or they run Windows 7 and will continue to do so for a long time. Windows 8 won’t be released for some time, and 7 is a very good OS with long legs. I’ve even seen businesses that require their users to stick with the classic Win2k style shell no matter what OS.
That all said, we’re squarely targeting WPF at ISV type applications, and Silverlight at business developers. I’ve been saying that one for a while now. That has no bearing on what we’re doing for Windows 8. Whether or not you can target the tile interface using anything beyond HTML/JS/CSS is a question for the //build/ conference to answer.
Silverlight 5 is still in progress. WPF v.next is still in progress. Both are scheduled for release. Both are real products with real features that real developers find really useful 🙂
Finally, we don’t have the full story. Making future architectural decisions based on assumptions from demos is irresponsible. Saying we should tell you more does not change the fact that you are making a decision based on a very minimal amount of evidence.
Pete
Pete Brown’s #5 response [06-05-2011 1:52 AM] (emphasis is mine)
GOD_G:
In september I expect to see in Pete’s blog articles like “The Present of Silverlight and WPF!” and “A lap around HTML5!”
I’m not a good Javascript developer. I dabble from time to time just with my site, but I have other people on my team who are currently doing an awesome job covering that side (Jon and Joe). Plus, if you knew me or my history in the WPF and Silverlight community (I doubt you do given your newness here), I’m not really one for party-line messaging.
History will be the only thing that shows what I do in September. Anything else is just additional speculation.
Until then, fire away. Going after me is easy at the moment (as a community guy, I expect this), but unfortunately that’s doing nothing to further your purposes. I’m not offended, but I feel like if you’d apply that energy to a different approach, you might accomplish something.
FWIW, With the exception of the few posts that came in after the thread lock in the old thread (*I* think there was a race condition there, but the site dev team doesn’t quite agree<g>), I haven’t deleted posts criticizing me or Microsoft, just those attacking other members, and none in this new thread so far.
Pete Brown’s #6 response [06-05-2011 2:02 AM] (emphasis is mine)
HephaistosX:
“The interface is so new that applications will have to be re-written for it from the ground up, just like DOS applications had to be re-written for Windows. These new applications will have interesting qualities. For example, they’ll be written in either HTML5 or JavaScript”
Unless it came directly from the mouth of Microsoft – specifically through our press releases, it’s not “fact”. It’s “speculation”.
Unfortunately, that’s what news outlets do – it helps to pull in readers when they appear to be offering additional detail. They don’t have access to any more detail than the rest of the public.
Pete Brown’s #7 response [06-05-2011 2:48 PM] (emphasis is mine)
Light Crystal:
I invested 3 years of my life to study C#, XAML and Silverlight framework, MVVM pattern to build games. 2 Years ago, it was a party, was all super happy times, just before the damn iphone take foot along the market. And now “ipèd” too. Apple and Google have no dev tools, so they leverage the standard one just to not be pitiful, and they have had success, unfortunately.
Now, i’m ready to start a new company with a huge project, and i’m BLOCKED until September.Why are you blocked? Why does an operating system your customers won’t have for years block you from using tools that are out *now*? Silverlight 5 will be released before end of year, as promised. Nothing has changed there.
While I know direction is very important for long-term planning, as developers we need to stop chasing the shiny ball and instead use what best serves us and our customers today. Keep an eye to what is in the future, but don’t block your current projects because of that.
It’s like buying PC components. I’ve built every PC I’ve owned since my last and only boxed purchase: an IBM PS/1 286 (which itself followed the Commodore 128 I got for Christmas). Each time I do that, I have to make a decision as to what CPU/memory/motherboard etc. to purchase as there is *always* something better coming down the pike. Those better chips often mean different memory architectures and lots of other things. However, if I waited each time instead of using the best of what I had right then, I’d still be running that 286 I had before I built my first computer, a 486dx33.
This is by no means a comment on how the message is being handled, nor am I downplaying the impact here. I totally understand what’s going on; I haven’t had enough Kool-aid to lose that 🙂
As a former consultant for 13 years (where I did VB4,5,6, SQL Server, .NET, WPF, Silverlight and more) and internal IT guy for 4 years before that (doing lots of projects in a mix of VB3, Powerbuilder, Delphi, dBase, FoxPro, QBasic, and Borland C++ – when was the last time our portfolios were that diverse?), I’m just hoping to offer a little perspective. We should work with what we have today, and with what we know for sure is coming short-term, especially when all we have to go on otherwise is speculation.
At its core, last week’s questions, votes, threads and more come down to:
- What can we use to write Modern / Immersive applications in Windows 8
- What’s going to run on tablets
I’m not sure that either of those impact that vast majority of business developers in a real day-to-day way other than peace of mind (which is important, but not business critical). For sure there will be lots of app developers targeting the new stuff, but for most, it won’t come for quite a while. There’s the Windows release schedule, then the adoption schedule, then the internal IT adoption schedule (which is always way behind), then the ramp up on taking advantage of the new features of the OS.
For a bit now, we’ve been saying “Silverlight for high-end media and business applications, HTML for broad reach and consumer-oriented stuff, Silverlight/XNA on phone, and WPF for ISV (big shrinkwrapped apps)”. I haven’t heard/seen anything that would make me change that recommendation.
For the people who are quick to jump on “Silverlight is dead” at companies, I can’t help you there. Those folks were looking for any excuse. Every nugget of news that comes out gets reinterpreted as that, despite Microsoft having come out and explicitely stated several times that these technologies aren’t dead. We had a Silverlight firestarter 7 months ago, and despite the HTML-heavy messaging at MIX, we also had a bunch of Silverlight 5 sessions *and* the release of Silverlight 5 beta.
And when things do change sometime in the future (eventually, everything has to change – nothing is forever, this is not a comment about anything short-term) you and your management should take a measured approach to transition to the new technology. This is no different than many other migrations. Heck, I’ve been trying for a while to get people to move from Windows Forms (a technology which is being maintained, but not enhanced) but folks want to stay there. When I give Silverlight talks at events like Tech Ed, the vast majority of the room is still doing Windows Forms projects, many on Windows XP or Vista. That’s the reality of what’s actually out there in businesses. You will have plenty of time to adapt as necessary (or not, as appropriate) and make reasonable and educated decisions about where you want to take your skills personally, and your company as to where it what it wants to leverage.
I have to question any time I hear rumors about projects being canceled or put on hold based on a rumor of where we may take a technology several years down the road. While some of those are certainly sound, the rest seem like either knee-jerk reactions, or the management wasn’t sold on the technology to begin with.
I don’t think anyone here has been wasting time learning these skills.
And while I don’t agree with the extremes on either side of this debate (the “nothing is wrong, why are you complaining” and the “I’ve wasted my career” sides) I do think that, as developers, diversifying your technology portfolio is always a good idea. Specialization can be good, but just like with stocks, if you invest too much in just one thing, your results are going to have lots of peaks and valleys instead of being more even. Of course, the person saying that has spent the last 4+ years deeply specialized, so take that as you will 🙂
Pete Brown’s #8 response [06-05-2011 2:53 PM] (emphasis is mine)
.netdan:
Why doesn’t the Silverlight.net home page get updated as often as it used to?
The blogs keep coming, but what about the News, Community Samples? There used to be loads of samples now theres about 5 a month if were lucky.
The showcase hasn’t been updated for ages, there used to be 10+ new showcases every 2 weeks or so, what’s happened to that?
Silverlight has a future I’m sure, I just wonder what exactly it is.
I curate a fair bit of this stuff. Here’s an explanation
Community Samples: They need to be written by the community. They’re just not coming as quickly as they used to. This is both because what’s there already covers almost all the easy scenarios, and because many Silverlight devs are doing WP7
Showcase: I took it upon myself to start weeding out old stuff, and to raise the bar for new submissions. Showcase needs to be showcase-level material, not a dumping ground. While I’m not yet where I want to be there, we have certainly rejected a lot more things than we had before. If the submission doesn’t meet the bar and they’re willing to include source code, I ask them to submit to the community samples.
Even blogging has slowed down. That’s partially because it’s the summer, partially because folks are waiting for the next release, and partially because many Silverlight devs are doing WP7 work.
FWIW, we’re also working on the next version of this site. Check it out at http://beta.silverlight.net
Just some insight 🙂
Pete Brown’s #9 response [06-05-2011 3:29 PM] (emphasis is mine)
SilentObserver:
ray reymond:Lure disheartened SL/WPF/.Net folks to Android world, “Look Java and C# are almost the same so there’s not much transition pain, and we are serious about supporting Android. We will not back-stab you guys like Microsoft just did.
And it’s working for them. My team needs to kick off building a relatively simple app for tablets during this and next month. Since Microsoft is giving us the silent treatment until September, I’ve started watching the android dev videos here: http://developer.android.com/videos/index.html#v=Oq05KqjXTvs . We will be evaluating the platform while waiting for clarifications from Microsoft. It’s a familiar concept for every SL developer. Their tools aren’t as good and C# has surpassed Java, so it would be a step down for us. But not as big of a step down as moving to javascript. The back-stabbing argument is probably the most important of all. We need to be able to trust our OS vendor and Microsoft has lost a tremendous amount of developer loyalty.
I’m with you all in that we could have/should have handled this better. However, I don’t think we’ve back-stabbed anyone. No one at Microsoft said HTML is the only way to go here, it’s just an approach we’re highlighting at the moment.
Unfortunately, we have a long-standing policy of not responding to press rumors and whatnot, so we can’t say anything about the interpretations the press has put out based on this small demo. I’m not even supposed to be posting about this here, but as the community guy for SL/WPF etc., I can’t help myself.
Yeah, “Wait until September” sucks for people who want to know *now*, but it’s not backstabbing. Remember, most other companies simply tell you nothing until the product is launched. We tried to give some info about something that we know will excite a segment of the community. I’m very concerned that the backlash is going to lead to silence being SOP in the future. 😦 I’m not blaming anyone, just pointing out a possible outcome.
Pete Brown’s #10 response [06-05-2011 3:43 PM]
Just a quick reminder for folks to keep it civil. I’ve seen a few posts that are starting to lean a little too far over the edge. Let’s keep language wars out (you won’t resolve anything), and no personal attacks.
Thanks.
Pete Brown’s #11 response [06-05-2011 3:57 PM] (emphasis is mine)
SilentObserver:
If the above is true, there is nothing to be gained by keeping it secret. So we must conclude that it isn’t true, at least as of now.
We know we can get the “legacy desktop” experience. However, our customers are doctors who own the lastest Apple gadgets. They expect us to deliver the same experience on their medical devices. If we are confined to the legacy desktop, we won’t be able to do that.
If you’re planning to develop for Windows 8 tablets, you have plenty of time. The wait until September is pretty short in comparison.
You’re also making an assumption based on the absence of information. “I didn’t hear from Joe, so he must be dead.” seems far less logical than just keeping it unknown – well, until some reasonable period passes anyway. There’s something about a box and a cat that applies here, but I’m not going there 🙂
I know it’s going to be a long summer now, and I know this is very frustrating and has everyone on edge, but I encourage you to reserve judgment until //build/. Then, once we’ve come forth with a good and full picture of Windows 8 plans, rather than just a quick consumer-focused preview, make your informed decisions.
Pete Brown’s #12 response [06-05-2011 4:59 PM] (emphasis is mine)
SilentObserver:
I appreciate you trying to calm everybody down . You’ve been given an impossible task by your PR people.
Thanks. Not anything that was given me. In fact, we’re supposed to just be quiet. That’s not in my genes, though.
I’m not so much interested in calming folks down as I am interested in getting to the core issues here and getting folks to keep any criticism on target (not attacking HTML devs or Silverlight devs, for example). And, of course, to remind folks that we’ll be talking much more about Windows 8 at //build/
Pete Brown’s #13 response [06-05-2011 5:00 PM]
SilentObserver:
A more accurate analogy would be : “I know Joe and Jim were fighting in the parking lot, and Jim just showed up very happy, so Joe must be badly bruised.” 🙂
lol. You win that one 🙂
Pete Brown’s #14 response [06-05-2011 5:06 PM] (emphasis is mine)
brosner88:
A pretty, elegant or easy to use shell UI is can be a nice selling feature to end users. It does nothing for developers.
And here we get to the crux. That demonstration video was not for developers. //build/ is for developers. HTML was mentioned as pretty much everyone gets it, even non-developers. And, quite frankly, that’s pretty cool that we’re doing that; a company that has gotten (in some cases, deserved) flak for not adopting standards is now incorporating one into the heart of their flagship product.
Yes, we mentioned HTML, but no one showed code. If it was meant for developers, you *know* we’d have had someone up there with an IDE open.
So: that demo, the walk-through video, and the related press release were all for non-devs, //build/ is for devs.
Pete Brown’s #15 response [06-05-2011 5:16 PM] (emphasis is mine)
jackbond:
Psychlist1972:know it’s going to be a long summer now, and I know this is very frustrating and has everyone on edge, but I encourage you to reserve judgment until //build/.
What if we say no, and that that’s simply unacceptable? I for one am willing to withdraw my app from the marketplace. Anybody else?
That’s entirely your right. I just don’t think it’s a particularly savvy move given that it is based on speculation and rumor which themselves are based on a consumer-focused demo of an unreleased operating system and the related consumer-focused press release.
Pete Brown’s #15 response [06-06-2011 1:11 AM] (emphasis is mine)
kimsk112:
Anyone knows if the Prism group (patterns & practices) is now working mainly on this Silk project (HTML5/JQuery) instead of Silverlight/WPF Prism?
If they stop committing to Silverlight/WPF Prism, I think we know what Microsoft is thinking now.
P&P is a peer team to mine (although much larger), in the same side of devdiv, called EPX. I believe they’re still working on Silverlight/WPF prism; I haven’t heard anything to the contrary. They’ve been beat up a bit in the past, however, for not having enough web guidance. Silk is part of the effort to make up the difference there.
That said, I’m not sure what else there is to add to prism. I haven’t looked at the backlogs, but it has to be getting pretty mature by this point.
The prism book was one of the hottest things at the Developer Guidance/P&P booth at Tech Ed 🙂
Pete Brown’s #16 response [06-06-2011 3:44 PM] (emphasis is mine)
FWIW, we don’t use third-party media outlets to announce things or do damage control unless it’s a quoted interview or video of MS folks. Even then, it’s rare not to have the real annoncement on our PR site.
Pete Brown’s #17 response [06-06-2011 9:29 PM] (emphasis is mine)
In case you haven’t seen this, Hanselman’s “Don’t give bile a permalink” is a good read.
[Why? For things like that: “If you’re a nudist and you give your technical talks on C# naked, I likely won’t be there to watch your talk. You may feel REALLY strongly about nudism, and I wish you well. You may believe in the legalization of drugs and prefer to give your technical presentations high, and I say, kudos, but I and others may not show. There are some social norms, and you should know what they are and know how strongly you feel about them when you take your message to a larger audience. ”]
From a quite opinionated but quite unsatisfied previous insider: http://twitter.com/#!/MossyBlog
Scott Barnes
@MossyBlog Brisbane
Former Product Manager (Silverlight/WPF) Microsoft Corp, UX Specialist, The guy leading the mob on FIXWPF.org and blogging dude behind RIAGENIC.com
http://www.riagenic.com
his response to the on going debate on Silverlight Forum
MossyBlog response #1 [06-06-2011 10:03 PM] (emphasis is mine)
A few points if I may:
- Not saying anything is one thing admitting it… dear god why. This isn’t directed at Pete to all staff members, if you can’t get involved in the discussion then avoid the discussion completely. Jumping into the fray and asking all to calm down while at the same time not offering answers is not wise. It only fuels further conspiracy theories for one and secondly it creates a focused point of frustration for all to increment geek-rage at. Either join the discussion or don’t but not half-way.
- Perception vs Reality. The amount of times when we use to deal with constant battles around Silverlight mainly from a perception base vs the reality was a daily occurenceso Microsoft Staff, while I admire your bravery here by jumping into the fray with “probably” correct is a diasterous way of handling the corporate communication(s). You’re actually doing more harm that way and if i was still in the Silverlight team i’d be making moves to put a gag order on you for it – its not your motivates aren’t righteous but you are actually now validating some of the speculation by keeping it half-yes half-no.
- New Joins vs Trolling. On one hand its great to see new members whilst on the other hand its sad under these circumstances. The point of order here is this, Corporate Comms 101 is a tire fire right now, people are frustrated and having an outlet like this to voice such concerns is a beast that well – staff – you created. If people are joining to either remain anonymous and voice their rage or so on, so be it all you can all do is reallly just sit and listen …that..or join the conversaton and start squashing some of the rumous / speculation mentioned earlier. Time to get involved.
- Moderation. If you have a situation whereby the villagers are going to storm your gates, its better to marshall them into an area you can control more to the point you can isolate. Having such a firm strict hand on a forum such as this isn’t smart as what you’re really saying to the hordes of both positive & negative emotion is “take your fight elsewhere”. You don’t want that, you want this isolated and pocketed to one area of the web as much as possible as when you do finally do your reveal in September you can then provide a much more sturdier platform to voice your smackdowns. Right now this is just plain stupid.
Pete. Personally I am fan of your work and will often support you even when I think you’re wrong because at the end of the day you work very hard to make a difference to communities like this. My personal advice to you is step aside, don’t take this bullet as the Windows team have some damage to fixand as some managers in the Silverlight team used to say “If you going to break up a fight, be prepared to be punched in the face”.
Let the horde vent their rage, its fast creating a marshalling point for you to provide some much needed corporate communication(s) to down the track.
To the masses here on this thread: You can argue amongst yourselves all you want, to what end? all you’re really doing is seeing who can bark the loudest.. the reality is this won’t have impact as the decisions around this entire messaging framework if you want to call it that goes much higher than those who moderate / read these forums. At best all staff like Pete can do etc is provide a thread or snippet of quotes to execs in a “quoted” format with “Please help me help you” call to action. It’s more than likely that email will be ignored.
My advice – wait this HTML5 bubble gum pop idea out as it’s one thing to say “all devs will create HTML5 apps” and its entirely another to have it happen. This is about the 4th time Windows team have tried to kickstart the HTML pipedream and what they fail to realise is that folks who do adopt Microsoft tech enjoy .NET [while] folks who don’t, just don’t like Microsoft as a brand and it mainly has nothing to do with technology discussion. Can’t imagine why they loose faith in the brand though? can you 😉
–
Scott Barnes
Former Product Manager (well 1yr ago lol) for Silverlight/WPF 🙂
–
Scott Barnes
Anti-Evangelist
To which came the following:
npolyak1 reminder [06-06-2011 11:29 PM]
And here is an article by Scott Barnes written last September warning everyone about what is coming (would we all listen to him)
npolyak1 addendum #1 [06-06-2011 11:40 PM] (emphasis is mine)
Excerpt from Scott’s article:
I’m simply about highlighting the disconnect here and if the Windows 8 / IE teams of today think that Silverlight / WPF is something they can deprecate because they dislike people in DevDiv or its current model then think again, as this is one of those rare moments in time where you have a hung jury in terms of which of the two is really the best bet.
npolyak1 addendum #2 [06-06-2011 11:41 PM]
Apparently Windows 8 / IE teams decided that they indeed can deprecate WPF and SL. Moreover, MS seems to allow them to get away with it.
npolyak1 addendum #3 [06-06-2011 11:48 PM]
Windows team seem to have gotten what they wanted – they destroyed the developer tools division, but they are also destroying a large part of Microsoft – in my estimate this crazy idea will cost at least $50 billion in market capitalization.
Drzog response to npolyak1 [06-06-2011 11:51 PM] (emphasis is mine)
Interesting article – it explains much, and is very disconcerting. Call it conspiracy theory, but I’ve noticed a number of HIGHLY VISIBLE Silverlight marketing links are not functional on the following prominent Microsoft websites:
(1) http://www.microsoft.com/silverlight/ This is the entry point URL for anyone inquiring about Silverlight, and ranks first or second when searching on “Silverlight”. Guess what? Click the first thing you see — the “Play” button — and then “Launch Demos” and sadly, none of the first three video streaming examples work. SHAMEFUL.
(2) http://www.microsoft.com/silverlight/future/ This is Microsoft’s “The Future of Microsoft Silverlight” page. Click the first call to action button “Watch the Silverlight Five Announcement” — guess what? NO VIDEO. Then try the “High Quality WMV” link. Guess what — staggered and strobed pixelation. SHAMEFUL.
These are Microsoft’s leading URLs for Silverlight information. Go figure.
Scott Barnes response to the erietta [user experience designer. news hound. art lover. in Sydney] 10 hours ago [vs 06-07-2011 11:00 CET]
UI experts upbeat on Windows 8 preview itnews.com.au/News/259674,ui… via @itnews_au what say you @MossyBlog ?
So copied here: UI experts upbeat on Windows 8 preview [June 6, 2011] (emphasis in bold is mine)
But are icons more effective?
User interface experts have expressed surprise at the re-design of the Windows OS interface, giving Microsoft the thumbs up for touch-based gestures and use of web app development standards.
The new interface, previewed late last week, replaces menu bars and icons with tiles akin to Windows Mobile 7.
A panel of Australian user interface gurus told iTnews the preview was significant.
Whereas web applications were once developed to mimic richer desktop applications, users now prefer the simplicity and ease of navigation of web applications.
Today, the desktop OS attempts to mimic the web.
“Hallelujah, at last, someone got it!” said Anthony Colfelt, Creative Director at web user experience firm, Different.
Microsoft’s tiles “take the best from informational web-design and applies it to the main computer UI,” he said.
He was particularly impressed that Microsoft has chosen to run applications developed with HTML 5 and Javascript, to prepare for an “inevitable shift toward light-weight terminal computers that rely on web-served applications.”
Colfelt said Microsoft was “finally attempting to lead in the area of UI and experience, rather than following Apple.”
“It has always been to Microsoft’s advantage to open up their system (for a reasonable fee) to the masses of developers and hardware manufacturers,” he said.
”Lots of programmers and machines equals lots of cheap programs and computers, and that means lots of accessibility for the consumer.”
Richard Edwards, Principal Analyst at Ovum said the preview proved Microsoft is still a “viable market-maker.”
Made for tablets
Shane Morris, director at UI specialists Automatic Studio said the interface “shows that Microsoft is serious about embracing touch and slate-based modes of use within Windows itself – as it should be.
“Clearly Microsoft has thought hard about how to integrate the casual consumption model of tablet devices with ‘real’ operating system features like multi-tasking, file system access and rich applications that require extensive user input, like Office.” he said.
“Why abandon the power and familiarity of Windows if they can possibly help it?
“The use of scrolling panels of tiles is a natural extension of the use of tiles and panning ‘panoramas’ in Windows Phone 7, which are proving popular with users,” he said.
“Swiping left and right to scroll through choices is a very natural action, and leverages both spatial memory and muscle memory to help users find and re-find what they need.”
But Morris pointed out that the preview did not reveal any on-screen cues to users to show them how swiping in from the edge of the screen could activate operating system features like task switching. This could prove a sticking point until users grew used to the concept, he said.
Colfelt also noted that many of these same interactions would “feel clumsy using a mouse.
“That could cause RSI if the user gets too excited about using them,” he noted.
The only point on which the experts disagreed was the use of tiles on the home page. Whilst Colfelt felt it was a solution to what he calls “information spelunking” (areas of a site easy to fall into and hard to find your way back out of), Morris felt Microsoft was abandoning icons that have historically proven far more effective.
Tiles, Morris said, are difficult to differentiate and can crowd the screen.
“The use of larger, consistently sized tiles containing dynamic content has the potential to create a vista that ‘yells’ at the user – and the demonstrated use of bright, saturated colours might actually make it difficult for users to discriminate between tiles and to focus on individual tile content,” he said.
“We know that people use various cues to search the visual field. Outline shape is one of the primary prompts to help people discriminate and identify objects visually. The dominant and consistent rectangular shape of the tiles themselves means Windows 8 users cannot use this outline shape as the primary cue. They must instead rely on colour and the actual tile contents. Compare that to the carefully designed icons in Microsoft Office products. Those icons present unique outlines – for good reason.”
Morris raised concerns as to whether Microsoft would continue to support stylus and other pen-based input as well as touch.
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @erietta @itnews_au UI Experts? hah.. thats like saying “Lifecoaches enjoy windows 8” 🙂 9 hours ago
in reply to ↑ @MossyBlog Scott Barnes @erietta @itnews_au the only expert in that conversation was @shanemo and he nailed his remarks well.. wouldn’t say it was upbeat tho 9 hours ago
erietta erietta @ @MossyBlog is your microsoft bias shining through? Anthony is a well qualified UX designer (& my boss you ratbag!) @colfelt @itnews_au. 7 hours ago
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @erietta @colfelt @itnews_au he is? so am i? so is everyone.. UX Expert is an oxymoron imho 🙂 7 hours ago
erietta erietta @ @MossyBlog @colfelt @itnews_au and I was after YOUR thoughts as you are on the record of sledging microsoft UX design. What say you? 7 hours ago
in reply to ↑ @MossyBlog Scott Barnes @erietta @colfelt @itnews_au i personally think the Tiles Windows8 concept is still unproven firstly & secondly it’s lazy design that furthermore, I don’t think as much thought as one is lead to believe has been put into the science behind it.. the design behind current MS Metro is a state of confused schizo ver of Intrinsic & Extraneous cognitive load. 7 hours ago
in reply to ↑ @erietta erietta @MossyBlog @itnews_au @colfelt This is the Scott I was looking for! Will be interesting to see if the process behind design is revealed. 7 hours ago
replies ↓ MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @erietta @itnews_au @colfelt yeah i mean i feel like a crack record though on my metro insighs..basically i like its attitude not execution 7 hours ago
——————————–
colfelt Anthony Colfelt @MossyBlog @erietta @itnews_au having worked alongside a few MS UX team members, I know PLENTY of thought went into the design. 9 hours ago
in reply to ↑
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @colfelt @erietta @itnews_au pink had potential and there were far better ideas on the table early on
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @colfelt @erietta @itnews_au it’s principles are great it’s execution is lazy 9 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone
colfelt Anthony Colfelt @MossyBlog @erietta Isn’t it a tad insulting to them to suggest otherwise? 9 hours ago
in reply to ↑
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @colfelt @erietta so? Want to play in the big leagues be prepared to backup the science behind it all 9 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @colfelt @erietta this execution panders to making engineers I to designers without context or personality 9 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @colfelt @erietta current metro designs are what I call shoplifting for designers
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @colfelt @erietta it’s in my view the same as buying ui art from a $1 or less store
colfelt Anthony Colfelt @MossyBlog @erietta I doubt most those reading @itnews_au cares abt the science. But next time, maybe they’ll ask a REAL expert to comment. 9 hours ago
in reply to ↑ @MossyBlog Scott Barnes @colfelt @erietta @itnews_au let me know if u meet one. I watched $1m usd research try and find one and it failed :$
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @colfelt @erietta @itnews_au btw i’m not looking to attack you per say, just the concept of “UX Experts say..”.. its kind of “wtf?” is my pt 8 hours ago
brettatitnews Brett W @ @colfelt @erietta @itnews_au I’m guessing if I’d included @MossyBlog there would be no argument on using the word “expert”. 7 hours ago
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @brettatitnews @colfelt @erietta @itnews_au wanna take that bet ? 🙂 .. The word expert is an alt word for Life Coach in my vocab 🙂 7 hours ago
brettatitnews Brett W @ @MossyBlog @colfelt @erietta @itnews_au how would you rather be addressed Scott? 7 hours ago
in reply to ↑
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes @brettatitnews @colfelt @erietta @itnews_au Me? why would you address me.. i’m just a developer who designs. 7 hours ago via web
replies ↓
erietta erietta @ @MossyBlog @brettatitnews @colfelt @itnews_au What have I started here?! </flamewars> 7 hours ago
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @erietta @brettatitnews @colfelt @itnews_au haha 🙂 no.. its just that article came up light..i want more meat on the bone.. 7 hours ago
brettatitnews Brett W @ @MossyBlog @erietta @colfelt @itnews_au I’ll be sure to include you next time Scott. 6 hours ago
MossyBlog Scott Barnes @ @brettatitnews @erietta @colfelt @itnews_au hah.. that’d be funny. 6 hours ago
MORE FROM SCOTT BARNES
@MossyBlog Scott Barnes Blog Post:: Understanding “Why would Microsoft do that?” http://bit.ly/m8lRiL 8 hours ago via RIAGENIC Blog
China Mobile repositioning for TD-LTE with full content and application aggregation services, 3G [HSPA level] is to create momentum for that
Follow-up: – Good TD-LTE potential for target commercialisation by China Mobile in 2012 [July 13, 2011]
See also: Mobile Internet (Aug’11) which is a total update on Aug 26, 2011 with a lot of additions to the original July 19, 2010 content on the following subjects:
– LTE and LTE Advanced — HSPA Evolved (parallel to LTE and LTE Advanced) — Heterogeneous networks or HetNets — Femtocells and Picocells — Qualcomm innovations in all that — Ericsson’s LTE Advanced demo — Current roadmaps on evolutions of current 3G+ broadband mobile networks
China Mobile to accelerate TD-LTE commercialization [June 10, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
China Mobile reportedly has decided to accelerate its investment in TD-LTE technology aiming to push the commercialization of TD-LTE networks one year ahead of its original schedule, according to industry sources.
The affects of poor sales on the commercialization of its 3G TD-SCDMA networks has pushed China Mobile to move forward into the 4G segment, the sources indicated.
The move by China Mobile has attracted attention from a number of chipset makers including Qualcomm, Sequans Communications, MediaTek and VIA Technologies as well as China-based Spreadtrum Communications, Hisilicon Technologies and Innofidei, as they have all been eyeing the 4G chipset market in China, the sources noted.
MediaTek has decided to expand its R&D team for the development of LTE and WiMAX chips in Taiwan and China, with plans to raid talent from other wireless chipmakers as well as from HTC, said the sources, noting that MediaTek also does not rule out the possibility of acquiring related LTE R&D teams at home and abroad later.
Global opportunities for LTE TDD [Ovum, February 2011]
Quite often, LTE TDD (also known as TD-LTE) is wrongly presented as a Chinese technology. … However, unlike TD-SCDMA, which was originally a Chinese technology that was subsequently adopted by 3GPP, LTE TDD has been part of the 3GPP standardization effort since its inception. … China Mobile learned at its cost with TD-SCDMA that being a 550 million customer mobile operator helps to attract vendor attention but is not enough to make a technology a global success. The operator consequently built a strategy to position LTE as the next GSM, making LTE the de facto global standard for mobile broadband – something most cellular operators would welcome for cost reasons.
…
China Mobile is facing several challenges with TD-SCDMA. One of the most acute relates to the smaller economies of scale associated with a weaker device ecosystem compared to UMTS/HSPA. This is why China Mobile quickly oriented its long-term mobile broadband strategy towards LTE TDD. … In terms of LTE TDD network expansion, we believe that it could be faster than TD-SCDMA as the network will leverage many aspects of the current TD-SCDMA network including cell site facilities, backhaul, and even parts of the base stations. … Despite the large scale of the trials, the drawback of a 1H12 launch is the impact it may have on the development of the LTE TDD ecosystem. Fortunately for the technology, another significant market, India, may launch commercial LTE TDD services before the end of 2011.
…
It is Ovum’s view that LTE TDD will become widely adopted in the global market, but this will take time, as exemplified by our forecasts. There will be a delay of 12–18 months between the take-off of the two LTE variants. For LTE FDD take-off should be around 2012–13, while it is expected that this will be around 2013–14 for LTE TDD. We forecast 89 million LTE TDD connections by 2015, representing roughly 25% of total LTE connections.
First Pre-commercial LTE TDD/FDD Uni-Mode Single Chipset USB Dongle to be Launched in June [June 9, 2011]
In June 2011, the world’s first pre-commercial LTE TDD/FDD uni-mode, multi-band, single chipset USB dongle supporting LTE TDD/FDD idle mobility (cell reselection) will be launched by Huawei Hisilicon. Successful completion of the IOT tests with all of the 10 infrastructure vendorsindicated that it had fully satisfied the Uu IOT and terminal test requirements of MIIT and CMCC.
Detailed design parameters are as follows:
The TD-LTE USB Dongle makes an unprecedented advance in functionality, performance, form factor, and interoperability. Prior to the launch of this pre-commercial TD-LTE dongle, 3 other critical development stages were completed:
- The first release of TD-LTE single-mode USB dongle test samples were released at the Shanghai World EXPO in mid 2010. All the terminals were custom-designed for the trial/ demonstration with the 65nm chipset design. Most of them passed the IOT tests with 1-2 infrastructures.
- The first release of LTE TDD/FDD dual-mode Single Chipset USB (65nm design) dongle test samples were released at GSMA MWC 2011 in February 2011. The USB dongles provided by Huawei Hisilicon and Qualcomm can support TD-LTE and LTE FDD in a single chip. The dongle is designed to support TD-LTE or LTE FDD based on the software that is loaded. IOT tests with 3-4 infrastructrues were passed during this phase.
- The pre-commercial TD-LTE single-mode multi-band USB dongles (45nm design) were launched during the GTI 1st workshop in April 2011. These were targeted for trial applications and installations. More than 20 TD-LTE USB dongles from ZTE provided problem free services during the two-day GTI workshop. The DL peak data rate reached 80Mbps and the average single user DL data rate reached 4Mbps. The dongle demonstrated the commercial readiness, stable performance and rapid development of the TD-LTE dongle.
The development quickly progressed from a 65nm test sample to a pre-commercial, Full IOT, Uni-mode, 45nm solution in less than a year. TD-LTE Large Scale Trials in China and commercial deployment in India and Japan will speed up its commercial readiness. The TD-LTE dongle will be commercially available in 2011.
Spreadtrum Communications Acquired Stake in MobilePeak Holdings, Ltd., a Leading UMTS/HSPA+ Modem Chipset Designer [June 9, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Spreadtrum Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPRD; “Spreadtrum” or the “Company”), a leading fabless semiconductor provider in China with advanced technology in both 2G and 3G wireless communications standards, today announced that it has acquired approximately 48.44% of the total outstanding shares of MobilePeak Holdings, Ltd. (’MobilePeak’), a privately held fabless semiconductor company based in Shanghai and San Diego that specializes in the design of highly integrated UMTS/HSPA+ modem chipsets.
Spreadtrum acquired approximately 48.44% of MobilePeak’s total outstanding shares, and provided a short-term loan to MobilePeak for the repayment of MobilePeak’s outstanding convertible bridge loans, for an aggregate cash consideration of approximately US$32.58 million. Spreadtrum intends to purchase all of MobilePeak’s issued and outstanding shares, and expects to complete the acquisition in the third quarter of 2011. Thanks to MobilePeak’s efficient operations, Spreadtrum expects the acquisition to have a minor impact on its earnings per share in Q2 and the remaining quarters in 2011, and Spreadtrum maintains its Q2 2011 guidance in terms of revenue, gross margin, and operating expenses as a percentage of revenue.
Commenting on the transaction, Spreadtrum’s Chairman, President and CEO, Dr. Leo Li, said, ’We are very pleased and excited to welcome the MobilePeak team. The synergies between the two companies and the opportunities created by this transaction are clear. With MobilePeak’s complete UMTS/HSPA+ solution, we will broaden our portfolio of worldwide wireless handset technologies, and make inroads into the WCDMA feature phone, smart phone and tablet markets.
“Utilizing our advanced 40nm technology, mature GSM/GPRS/EDGE and TD-SCDMA platforms, and working closely with MobilePeak’s Shanghai and San Diego teams, we will be well equipped to expand our international market shares. These capabilities are also a solid foundation for developing the next generation multi-mode FDD-LTE/WCDMA and TDD-LTE/TD-SCDMA technologies over the next two years.”
Mr. Qiuzhen (Joe) Zou, Chairman and President of MobilePeak, said, ’ We are eager to work with the Spreadtrum team. Since MobilePeak’s inception in 2005, our team has developed world-class baseband chipsets with support for 3GPP Standard through Release 7, including HSPA+ technology up to Category 14 with 21Mbps maximum downlink speed and 11Mbps maximum uplink speed. MobilePeak has more than 100 patents granted or pending worldwide, and its solutions have passed GCF tests and top-tier handset makers’ strict in-house tests. We are confident to roll out the first 40nm HSPA+ solution platform for feature phones and smart phones by 2012.’Mr. Zou will assume the role of Chief Technology Officer at Spreadtrum.
Mr. Zou founded MobilePeak in 2005 and has since served as MobilePeak’s Chairman. He served as MobilePeak’s Chief Technology Officer from 2005 to 2010 and assumed the position of President in 2010. Mr. Zou has more than 18 years of experience in the wireless communications industry. From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Zou held various positions with QUALCOMM, Inc., where he became a Vice President of Engineering in 2000. At QUALCOMM, Mr. Zou led various semiconductor design projects, including multiple generations of CDMA baseband chipsets. Mr. Zou received a BSEE from Southeast University in Nanjing, China in 1992, followed by an MSEE from Stanford University in 1993.
China market: 3G network investment totals CNY289 billion [June 14, 2011]
China Mobile, China United Telecommunications and China Telecom have cumulatively invested a total of CNY289 billion (US$43 billion) in setting up 3G networks consisting of 697,000 base stations around China, China-based http://www.xinhua.com has cited Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officials as indicating.
The three carriers had 67.57 million 3G subscribers in total as of the end of April 2011, the report indicated.
Goal for domestic 3G network set at 50m users [June 9, 2011]
The Chinese government has set a target of achieving more than 50 million third-generation (3G) mobile users by the end of 2011 for its homegrown telecommunication standard, but analysts predict the technology may not be the biggest winner in the 3G era.
Zhao Bo, deputy director of the electronics and information department with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said on Wednesday that China should continue to push forward its TD-SCDMA (Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access) 3G technology.
“The TD-SCDMA technology should realize its strategic target of acquiring at least one-third of China’s market, and grab 50 million users by the end of this year,” Zhao said.
He said he is confident that China Mobile Ltd, the world’s biggest telecom carrier by users, will achieve the goal within the schedule.
China Mobile is building the TD-SCDMA 3G network in China, while its domestic rivals, China Unicom Ltd and China Telecom Corp Ltd, adopted the WCDMA and CDMA2000 3G technologies.
Ye Lin, an official from the technology department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said since the three Chinese telecom operators obtained 3G licenses in early 2009, China has made major progress in 3G network development.
The three carriers have invested a total of 289 billion yuan ($44.6 billion) in 3G network construction in the past three years, Ye said. More than 697,000 3G base stations have been set up in the same period, he added.
The ministry recently announced that the number of 3G users in China reached 67.6 million by April.
China Mobile topped the list with 29.4 million, and China Unicom followed with 20.4 million. The smallest telecom carrier, China Telecom, had 17.8 million by April.
The great leap forward: How the world’s largest operator aims to jump one generation [Ericsson Business Review, June 10, 2011] interview with Bill Huang, GM of the China Mobile Research Institute (emphasis is mine)
China Mobile is pushing the time division (TD) flavor of LTE hard. Why is it necessary to have more than one kind of LTE, and what benefits does TD offer end users?
To understand, you must look back at what caused this technology evolution. There was an understanding that to go digital we must have a global standard. There were many candidates but they fell apart. GSM was a very good effort and succeeded in becoming the first real global standard. Then came 3G. In retrospect, 3G was a questionable development. It optimized voice capacity and quality but data traffic was kind of an afterthought. GSM did the job just fine. The best example is China Mobile. We deployed the world’s largest GSM network with the lowest tariffs, and never saw the need for a better voice service. 3G was a solution looking for a problem. And indeed, WCDMA did not take off until HSPA was developed. So from a historical perspective, HSPA was the only killer application for WCDMA, and internet access is the only reason HSPA took off.
Mobile internet is the only growth area for mobile communication … LTE carries the heritage of GSM and WCDMA with it … the selection of TD technology as a strong candidate in the evolution of LTE gives us an internet advantage. Historically, mobile communication has been symmetrical, dominated by voice. Internet traffic is not symmetrical. Downlink is typically 10 times faster than uplink, and addresses this. TD is unique in the way you can adjust the uplink and downlink ratio. And that’s why TD has become very useful – not only does it allow operators to use spectrum more efficiently, it also offers consumers a better user experience and lower costs.
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How will China Mobile use 3G?
We will accelerate. For China Mobile 3G is an important licensing issue, and we are building a 3G infrastructure to create the momentum [with 3G HSPA level?] with which we move towards 4G.
Isn’t that a long way off in the future? Don’t you need to develop mobile broadband now?
Completely wrong! We are targeting commercialization next year, not in five years. In fact, operators in India and Japan plan to go commercial this year, but we are not that aggressive. So you see: 4G is not being pushed by the vendors, like 3G was. 4G is being pushed by the carriers. LTE is the only standard in the industry where, if you have a product, people will buy it right away. It’s the reverse of how things used to be, and very interesting. LTE is being developed fast, but not fast enough.
…
Instead of looking at data volume, we can charge for downloading a movie, regardless of size, or a song or a book. We have all of that already in place. But frankly I don’t think consumers are used to content based billing, so we need to educate them – in many cases. … China Mobile’s strategy is that we will be a content and application aggregator, therefore becoming a smart pipe – not a dumb pipe that just provides access without aggregating anything. So we become the Walmart of information.
Instead of charging for content or traffic we can create a club. People are familiar with that concept. You pay one monthly charge and everything is free. It’s very effective; Netflix is a good example of a subscription based service that I think has a very good future as a business model. At China Mobile we can do anything with scale, but we can’t do everything in a niched or personalized way. So, if we provide a club we get to leverage that scale. We have 600 million subscribers. If only 10 percent sign up, that’s already 60 million members. If just 1 percent sign up, that’s 6 million members.
How do you handle the threat from the over-the-top (OTT) players, the internet companies?
It is a very real threat: OTT services can now replace almost any communications service imaginable. ott services are usually free, so this business model is based on backward billing. … What we hope to entice the user with is the quality of service – that’s our most important competitive advantage. … we must also look to reduce the cost of our services, potentially making them free as well. If we use other ways to generate revenue – like advertising or the club concept, and the user subscribes to a bandwidth bundle – we could provide the voice club service for a fixed fee, while guaranteeing the quality. Then I think we could kill off OTT very easily.
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What do you expect from the cloud?
For mobile internet we have established a three-front strategy: LTE; the smartphone (operating Ophone, which is based on Android plus); and cloud computing. Only by combining all three can we create a really competitive and successful mobile-internet business.
We believe the cloud is an infrastructure technology that can address the cost of computing, reduce energy consumption and become a common platform for society, consumers and companies. Historically telecom operators have been reluctant to embrace it, but this was a mistake. In the US, I think carriers have already given up. They allow Google, Amazon and Microsoft to run cloud computing. But there are opportunities for China Mobile. If anything, we can do infrastructure on a large scale, data centers and so on. We do not have to develop all of the internet services in the world to compete with Google or Facebook. What we could do is build a cloud-computing infrastructure and invite all the internet companies to partner with us.
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The most important phenomenon that will drive change in the mobile communications industry today is the evolution of smart phones. What used to be a communications device is now an all-purpose computing device. Today, fewer than 20 percent of our subscribers use smartphones. We think that in three to five years over 80 percentof our subscribers will use smartphones.
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Have tablets changed this picture?
No, I see them as just bigger smartphones. In fact, Microsoft and others have tried for many years to introduce tablets and failed. But when Apple introduced the iPad, which is just a big iPhone, everybody loved it. So, this proves that a successful tablet is a big smartphone. The look and feel is very similar to that of a phone.
How do you work with the app store concept?
We embraced it completely and the way we differ from Apple is that we support all operating systems – including iOS if Apple wants us to. … We hope to create a platform that is independent of operating systems. … The reason China Mobile chose Android was that we need the flexibility to differentiate. We need to add components, APIs and functionality to Android. That’s why we call it Android plus.
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I don’t know if video is going to be a major revenue stream, but I am sure it’s going to be a major application. I say that because making video calls on IMS [IP Multimedia System]will become an internet application, so it depends on how we charge for it. It opens up the potential for more creative billing strategies. We would be able to deliver a level of quality that would be very difficult for an ott player to achieve.
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We studied what kind of apps users download and you’d be surprised how similar people’s tastes are. The top 1,000 apps have a 99-percent share of the market. That’s very good news for operators. We are not very good at long tail, but we are definitely good at short tail.
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We want a mobile phone to be able to transmit TV to a large screen – so you can watch the program on your phone’s small screen or your computer screen, but also take it with you when you visit someone and watch it together on a large screen, in high definition. You won’t need the DVD. The mobile becomes the set-top box. So China Mobile doesn’t need a three-screen strategy – we only need a one-phone strategy. We are working on a wireless multimedia transmission technology called WiMo for this, and expect it to be available in two to three years.
Are you ready for mobile banking?
To be frank, we have not figured out which technology’s the right one to get the credit card or the payment mechanism into the phone. The most viable one for phones would be near-field communication (NFC). We have already established our architecture for mobile commerce and an account system with connections to all the banks, so from a service point of view we already have everything in place. What we need right now is for more phones to have the capability to carry the mobile payment and transaction engine – the right chip and components to support it, along with NFC.
Is banking a comfortable area for operators?
We don’t necessarily have to compete with the banks. We can rather just be the wallet and charge a monthly fee for the service. In other words, the banks can issue the cards and put them into our phones. We will make our platform open for all the banks. We don’t have to issue our own cards; all we have to do is to become the channel for the credit cards. And then we can make money. It is a great service – to sign up you don’t have to fill in a lot of forms; we have all the customer data that is needed.
How China institutional changes influence industry development? The case of TD-SCDMA industrialization [May 25, 2011]
… in view of that China state capitalizing on different SOEs and accompanying institutional changes, we further break framework into two time-periods:
– During stage 1 (2002- 2008) that China central government started to support Datang Group, aiming to commercialize TD-SCDMA technology into products. State also assigned Datang to lead TDIA [TD-SCDMA Industry Alliance designed to function as the platform of TD-SCDMA development, involving the activities of setting standard, sharing IPR, organizing supply chain, and coordinating among members] for TD-SCDMA industrialization.
– In stage 2 (2009-present), China state turned to mandate China Mobile to promote TD-SCDMA, not only responsible for networking building and service providing, but also for organizing of mobile handset supply chain (Wang and Tsai, 2010).…
The R&D capacity of Datang Group as a whole is questionable, despite that Datang set home-grown TD-SCDMA standard (interview ES1). Since 1992, CATT had received national grant to undergo the earliest home-grown standard (SCDMA, 2G), but failed to commercialize due to weak R&D capacity in commercialize large-scale system development (Chen, 2005; Soh and Yu, 2010)11. Second, Datang XiAn, founded in 1993 and specializing for telecommunication equipment manufacturing for digital automatic switching (SPC) product, can not compete with local minying enterprise Huawei and mixed enterprise ZTE since late 90’s to early 2000’s (Fuller, 2005: 201; Harwit, 2007; Liu, 2008).
… the Datang Group is state-owned enterprise spin off from CATT, and they didn’t directly confront market and no pressure for survival(interview ES1and IS1). Although state continuously channeled national resources to compensate the loss (cf. Table 1 2004 negative profit) from developing TD-SCDMA and that Datang Mobile indeed deployed on R&D and accomplish some patents, Datang Group as a whole can not develop innovation capacity in designing parts and testing whole TD-SCDMA network system. One of the reason is that Datang Group lacked of associated knowledge and experience before (Soh and Yu, 2010).
The same situation occurs in TD-SCDMA mobile terminal products. The joint ventures IC design firms of Datang and MNCs, such as T3G or Commit, launched none of TD-SCDMA products to the market and ended up merged by ST-Ericsson or bankrupted. Likewise, Datang Mobile fruited no complete TD-SCMDA handset, so the state turned to university and public-sector research institutes to support the development of TD-SCDMA (Liu, 2008, 2009).
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TDIA also confronted frustration in knowledge sharing and organizing of supply network. There’s no patent license-out or cross-license among member (Sumtttier et al., 2006; Whalley et al., 2009), except occasional license out from Datang to ZTE and Putian (Soh and Yu, 2010). Theoretically, Datang supposed to invite and global companies, such as Huawei and ZTE, into the supply chain of TD-SCDMA and leverage on their experience. But Datang, as the father of TD-SCDMA, tried to protect and guard their child (interview ES1). On the other hand, the R&D capacity of Huawei and ZTE outperformed Datang, so Huawei and ZTE won’t bother to join Datang on patent sharing and further on TD-SCDMA technology/product (interview RS4 and RS6).
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State pick winner [and looser] SOE as national team
By contrast to Datang, the state evolves to pick China Mobile as the new national team by assessing past performance as selection criteria. First, China Mobile has near 500 million (end of 2008) users, making it as the largest telecom operator worldwide (BMI, 2010). So it’s a feasible path to migrate most China users from 2G (GSM) to home-grown standard (Interview, ES1). Second, China Mobile is most profitable and potential operator in China that China Mobile had the capacity and capital to promote TD-SCDMA (Interview ES1, SS2, ES1).
… the state threatens China Mobile: TD-SCDMA or none of 3G licenses. Coupled with impact on Mr. Wang’s political career, China Mobile has no choice but to promote TD-SCDMA (Interview ES1). On the other hand, the state also subsidizes RMB$10 billion (SinoCast, 2009) to compensate for potential loss estimated RMB $30 billion each year (Interview RS5).
In short, China state changes institutional means of supporting core SOE by both subsidies and threat, rather than carrot without stick. The state also changes to assess SOE’s past performance for prospects of TD-SCDMA. Despite the mandatory mission, China Mobile indeed starts to recruit R&D staff with high salary (Interview RS5) and experiments several innovations on TD-SCDMA network deployment, mobile phone launch, and service package to users (Interview IS1).
…
For the particular case of TD-SCDMA development, this paper contributes to discover that China state experiments and adapts institutions, along with the mentality adjusted from ‘standard matters’ to ‘R&D capacity rules’. More, the macro-level institutional learning also leads to meso-level institutional adaptation in the telecommunication industry. China Mobile acts as a mediator between state and network of firms, with the resources re-distribution and demand for collective action through the whole supply chain. Therefore, China Mobile not only managed to offer users with innovative service and networking build through in-house R&D, but also to organize the preliminary formation of TD-SCDMA production networks.
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China Mobile, as a customer rather than rival of equipment manufacturers, had invested RMB$148 billion during 2008 to 2010 through four stages bids of infrastructure construction (BMI, 2010; IEK, 2010). Both local and global firms, such as SOEs Datang and Putian, minying Huawei and MNCs Nokia-Siemens, all compete for TD-SCDMA network building (Wang and Tsai, 2010). The final winners are Huawei and ZTE, for their cheaper but good product quality than MNCs’ and SOEs’ (Interview ES2). It indicates that China Mobile also selects their cooperating partners basing on market performance as the foremost criteria. This is different from the previously protectionism signal that Datang sent, since the SOE was targeted to dominate China market under the umbrella of MIIT, and which formulated the national industrial policy.
China Mobile also realizes that the biggest problem of TD-SCDMA industrialization is the shortage of TD-SCDMA handsets in the market. Under the pressure from mission and profit, China Mobile urges their current partners (e.g. Nokia and Motorola) to produce TD-SCDMA products through replicating the same incentives tools that state imposed upon China Mobile. That is, China Mobile, basing on their market significance, threatens their main suppliers (e.g. Nokia and Motorola): TD-SCDMA products or none of other business (Interview IS1). On the other hand, China Mobile first offered RMB$ 600 million to three chipsets designers and nine handset suppliers, to induce these leading firms to offer cheap products to penetrate China market. Thus, Nokia, HTC, Samsung and some local firms started to launch TD-SCDMA handsets. Most of all, China Mobile plays as a coordinator to integrate the supply chain, from upstream IC design firms to downstream manufacturers (Interview IS1).
China Mobile awards 12 companies TD-SCDMA research grants [May 17, 2009] (p. 4, emphasis is mine)
China Mobile will provide funding of RMB 600 million ($87.77 million) to 12 mobile phone and chip manufacturers for the research and development (R & D) of terminal devices based on the homegrown TD-SCDMA standard, China Mobile announced on May 17.
According to the announcement, the 12 companies include nine mobile phone manufacturers, namely Motorola Inc., Samsung Corp., Yulong Computer Telecommunication Scientific Co. Ltd., Dopod Communication Corp., LG Electronics (China) Co. Ltd., ZTE Corp., Hisense Group, Guangzhou New Postcom Equipment Co. Ltd. and Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. along with three chip makers, namely T3G Technology Co. Ltd., MediaTek Inc., and Spreadtrum Communications Co. Ltd.
As China Mobile stipulated that chip makers and mobile phone manufacturers pair up in the R & D project, T3G will work with Motorola, Samsung, Dopod and Huawei while MediaTek will work with Yulong, ZTE and LG. Spreadtrum will collaborate with Hisense and New Postcom.
Motorola, Samsung, Yulong, Dopod and LG, together with their chip maker partners [T3G and MediaTek], will receive combined funding of RMB 310 million ($45.35 million) from China Mobile for R & D of high-end TD-SCDMA mobile phones. The remaining mobile phone manufacturers [Huawei, ZTE, Hisense and New Postcom], together with their chip maker partners [T3G, MediaTek and Spreadtrum], will be responsible for R & D of low-end TD-SCDMA mobile phones and will receive combined funding worth RMB 290 million ($42.42 million) from China Mobile, the announcement said.
China Mobile Reveals TD-SCDMA Handset Subsidy Bidding Results [May 17, 2009] (emphasis is mine)
On May 17, China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; 0941.HK) held a signing ceremony for subsidies targeted at joint TD-SCDMA handset R&D, with nine handset manufacturers and three chip manufacturers signing a “cooperative R&D” agreement. China Mobile will invest RMB 600 mln in the subsidies, driving total investment of over RMB 1.2 bln in TD-SCDMA R&D, with the remaining contributions coming from participating vendors.
6 joint bids won subsidies for China Mobile’s “Flagship Broadband Internet Handset” project: Motorola and 3G chip manufacturer T3G; Samsung and T3G; mobile handset manufacturer Yulong and TD-SCDMA chipmaker Leadcore Technology; Smartphone manufacturer Dopod and T3G; LG Electronics and Leadcore; and ZTE and Leadcore. China Mobile will invest approximately RMB 310 mln in the project.
For the “Low Cost 3G Handset” project, the five successful bids were ZTE and Leadcore; LG and Leadcore; Hisense and wireless baseband chipset provider Spreadtrum Communications (Nasdaq: SPRD); Guangzhou New Postcom and Spreadtrum; and handset manufacturer Huawei and T3G. China Mobile will provide approximately RMB 290 mln of funding for this project.
7 months later these 11 handsets were shown [as per China Mobile’s Dec 17, 2009 press release in Chinese
China Mobile‘s 200 Models of TD Mobile Phone Listing This Year [March 18, 2011]
Recenly Li Yue, president of China Mobile, attended the Results Announcement said that China Mobile has an adequate supply in the 3G mobile phones. Currently, 50 companies are available to TD phones, and another 200 models will be able to supply soon.
At the end of last year, China Mobile has conducted 6 million low-end TD mobile phones tender. And in February this year, China Mobile has conducted 12.2 million high-end TD mobile phones procurement, of which, about 150 million units flagship Internet terminals, 30 million units dual card dual standby terminals, 320 million units multimedia intelligent terminals, 400 million units fashion and entertainment terminals and 320 million units universal intelligent terminals.
Xue Taohai, vice president of China Mobile, said the group will control the handset subsidies in 17.5 billion yuan. It is reported that China Mobile set a new goal for 25 million 3G users this year, and the current 3G network has covered 656 cities.
China Mobile Changes Strategy in Terminal Procurement [April 22, 2011]
Foreign mobile phone makers that has been disappointed in the bidding invitation of China Mobile Ltd. (SEHK: 0941 and NYSE: CHL) for centralized procurement of 6 million TD-SCDMA terminals last year, have turned things around in this year’s first round of centralized procurement kicked off by the leading telecommunications carrier.
Reporters find out that foreign mobile phone makers have won more than half of the share in recent centralized procurement, indicating that China Mobile has adjusted its philosophy in terms of the development of TD-SCDMA terminals, pointed out an insider who declines to reveal his name, saying that the company is not satisfied about current situation for the distribution of TD-SCDMA mobile phones.
A top executive of China Mobile opens out that the sales volume of TD-SCDMA terminals is small, indirectly confirming the report, saying that TD-SCDMA mobile phones have bad quality and high prices.
In the opinion of a researcher of iSuppli, China Mobile has changed its strategy to snatch market share and enlarge user base through low-end TD-SCDMA terminals and will improve the brand influence and boost the sales volume of TD-SCDMA mobile phones through the promotion of flagship terminals.
At the end of 2010, a domestic TD-SCDMA chipmaker has begun preparing for the next year’s centralized procurement of TD-SCDMA mobile phones by China Mobile, since the distribution of TD-SCDMA terminals completely relies on telecom carriers.
The top management of the chipmaker has been determined to win the centralized procurement. However, in February 2011, the announcement of China Mobile about the result disappointed them.
China Mobile has focused on medium- and high-end mobile phones in this year’s first round of centralized procurement while bid winners were all domestic TD-SCDMA terminal makers last year.
The changing philosophy of China Mobile is unfavorable to domestic mobile phone makers, which are mostly oriented to the manufacturing of medium- and low-end TD-SCDMA terminals.
Take the example of upstream chipmaker Leadcore Technology Co., Ltd., its shipment of TD-SCDMA chips topped 13 million in 2010. In last year’s centralized procurement, the company took over half of the share.
In contrast, US IC designer Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (Nasdaq: MRVL) that is oriented to the medium- and high-end TD-SCDMA smart phone market is likely to snatch more than half of the share in the latest centralized procurement.
Whatever strategy China Mobile adheres to, its aim will not change. That is to attract more customers for TD-SCDMA mobile phones. A top executive of Leadcore Technology believes that high-end TD-SCDMA terminals will help China Mobile improve its brand influence. But, to boost sales volume, the company still has to rely on medium- and low-end mobile phones.
(1 USD = CNY 6.51) Source: http://www.nf.nfdaily.cn (April 22, 2011)
Muted group procurement result of TD smartphone in May, indicating backend loaded demand with low SP mix in 2011 [May 24, 2011]
Leadcore, Huawei, and Borqs indicated that China Mobile (CM) procured only 1.2mn TD smartphone (SP) with a minimum order of 200,000 for each model, well below the market expectation of 12mn units with minimum guaranteed order of 800,000 per model. CM has selected six models (three Ophone, two Android, and one feature phone) from Huawei, ZTE, Samsung, Lenovo, Motorola, and Coolpad. They attributed the disappointing central procurement result of TD smartphone to relatively poor quality of phones. That said, Leadcore believes that MIIT has required CM to add 30mn TD-SCDMA subs in 2011 and TD terminal or chipset shipment is likely to be 53mn in 2011. Leadcore is hopeful that feature phone and SP could represent most of the TD phones with fixed wireless terminals at only 3-4mn in 2011. Leadcore expects CM to shift to open channels, which also receives a subsidy through contracts with provincial or local CM subsidiaries; and we predict the mix of open channel and central procurement to increase from 30% and 70% in 2011 to 70% and 30% in 2012, respectively. Similarly, Spreadtrum also expects TD chipset market to reach 45-50mn in central procurement (fixed wireless 35%, feature phone 50%, smartphone 10-15%), and 60mn-70mn units in total (including the open channel). Spreadtrum has seen strong recent demand from open channel. We note that open channel tends to sell more feature phones and fixed wireless phones.
Leadcore and Spreadtrum aim to gain TD market share in 2011
Leadcore believes that it has 50% of TD market share together with Mediatek. Marvell has relocated some of its R&D resources to China and is getting support from OEM. CM would like to give 60% of its SP orders to Marvell. However, in a recent stability test by CM, Leadcore scored at 95% pass rate, with T3G at 93% and MRVL at only 65%.
Rumor: China Mobile Establishes National Handset Procurement Arm [May 27, 2011]
An industry source said recently that China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; 0941.HK) has circulated a memo internally announcing the establishment of a terminals center, to be announced officially in August, that will operate as a national-level handset procurement subsidiary. The operator is currently making necessary internal adjustments in order to transfer staff to the new center.
The new terminals center will be operated like a division of China Mobile, overseen directly by China Mobile headquarters, and will focus on terminal procurement and sales. The center will be comprised of several departments, including products, procurement, marketing, channels, systems support, general services, and finance. While it is being referred to internally as the “mobile terminals center,” externally it will operate like a company.
Previously, the source said, China Mobile’s headquarters had been separate from provincial-level procurement operations, which it will now unify under the new terminals center. If a handset manufacturer is not on the center’s supplier list, it will be unable to promote its handset through provincial subsidiaries.
Earlier reports claimed that China Mobile had planned to transform handset distributor Topssion, which it acquired in March, into a terminal sales subsidiary.
Borqs Unveils Latest OPhone Handsets at 14th China Beijing International High-tech Expo [May 20, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
With the coming of the World Telecommunications Day, the 14th China Beijing International High-tech Expo (the Expo) opened at China International Exhibition Center from May 18th to 22nd, 2011. This Expo was co-organized by several state departments of China, including the Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Education, and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Many innovative enterprises participated into the Expo with their innovation achievements. Borqs, one of the members of China’s National Special Key Projects, were also invited and exhibited the new serial of TD smartphones running on OPhone OS 2.0 or higher.
From “Made in China” to “Created in China”, and then to “China Standards”, enterprises based in Zhongguancun have always been committed to innovation and development since their establishment. As technology advancement and industry transfer are seen everywhere around the world, China Mobile developed and launched the first 3G standard in China, TD-SCDMA, a decade plus ago. As of today, China Mobile has maintained 61.9 million 3G mobile users as well as 26.99 million TD-SCDMA users. Recently, Mr. Jianzhou Wang, the Chairman of China Mobile, pointed out that TD system was no longer a test network but a commercial one covering 656 cities around China with the joint efforts of China Mobile and its industry partners from within and outside the country. Especially, the TD-SCDMA industry chain has emerged in recent years,, consisting of near 50 telecommunication enterprises, including many manufacturers and providers of network, terminals and chips, in and outside China.
OPhone OS is closely related to TD. Up to now, OPhone smartphones account for 50% of TD smartphones. At the Expo, a wide range of TD terminals are exhibited, including many new OPhone-based models. Following its receiving recognition from the state officials at the prior 11th Five-year Plan Major Science & Technology Achievements Exhibition, OPhone OS continued to be all the rage and attracted many visitors at the Expo.
TD-LTE Industry Briefing – May 2011 by China Mobile [May 27, 2011]
TD-LTE Large Scale Trial in China Update –All 6 Cities Have Launched Base Stations
- All 6 cities have launched base stations. The number of launched Base Stations has reached 20% of the planned ones.
- The planning of continuous coverage in hot spot areas has been completed in all 6 cities. The constructions are under way:
– 78% supporting facilities modification accomplished
– 69% equipments arrived
– 35% equipments installed
- Transmission tests have been completed in several cities
- EPC and Security tests initiated in several cities in April 2011
- RANtests are planned to start in the end of May 2011TD
…
GTI Official Website: http://www.lte-tdd.org
The GTI official website was launched during the 1st GTI Workshop [on 27-28 April 2011 in Guangzhou, China]. The website shares the latest information about TD-LTE related News, Events, Reports and Statistics. GTI operators have the rights to access the Working Space on GTI website for technical presentations and further deliverables of GTI.
China Mobile Almost Finishes Pilot TD-LTE Network Deployment [June 7, 2011]
China Mobile, one of the Big Three telecom operators in the country, has completed deployment of a pilot TD-LTE network in most of the cities selected for a planned test, disclosed people familiar with the matter today.
Most of the system equipment makers have completed the first TD-LTE call in cooperation with the branches of China Mobile, according to one of the people, noting that additional telecom equipment makers are expected to make a presence in the program for an expansion of the test.
The TD-LTE network test, kicked off on March 24 with the releasing of document from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), has been going on smoothly reflected by a group of telecom equipment makers’ success in TD-LTE call.
Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., one of the top-ranking telecom equipment makers in the country, helped launch the first TD-LTE wireless connection in Shenzhen on April 6, facilitating the rollout of high-speed download service and high-definition video service based on the TD-LTE data card.
TD LTE to revolutionize wireless broadband [May 31, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
During the second international LTE conference held in New Delhi, the industry said that it has become imperative to deploy LTE technology to set standards. With numerous benefits of TD LTE, the industry is graping with deployment challenges while early availability of devices has become another area of concern. Bharti Airtel is conducting trial in Chandigarh. The deployment of TD LTE at right time as well as availability of devices will be a challenge, and it is coming out with a lot of hope.
Speaking at the event, J Gopal, Advisor (Technology), DoT said that they are looking forward for this technology to bridge digital divide and facilitate economic growth. With various consumer-centric advantages, TD LTE is becoming an important tool for every operator today while some of them have already begun trials.
“Eventually we see migration from WiMax to TD LTE and significantly there is a global initiative to promote it. India and China are the leading contenders of this technology, which is mature now,” said Sujit Bakre, head, 4G business development and product management (APAC), Nokia Siemens Networks. Large investments have already been done on 2G/3G and now we should leverage voice onto TD LTE, he added. Bakre reiterated that they bagged two commercial deals in Middle-East and Latin America but however couldn’t name the operators.
Puneet Garg, VP, Networks, Bharti Airtel said that TD LTE is a next step towards broadband wireless and is the fastest BWA technology and has become a realty now. “It will make high speed wireless broadband affordable to urban and rural consumers. This technology facilitate low TCO”, he added.
Rajan S Mathews, director general, Cellular Operators Association of India said that broadband is the single big imperative for the country. “As we are poised to be the largest economy by 2050, therefore we couldn’t afford to miss the broadband bus,” he said. Mathews said that the government is aggressively implementing the national policy on broadband and TD LTE is a great opportunity for the country to get into building standards.
20 Operators Have Joined GTI [May 19, 2011]
Following the 1st GTI Workshop, GTI has gained strong momentum. Till May 19th, 20 operators from Europe, Asia, America and Oceania have formally joined GTI.
These 20 GTI operators are:
Aero2, Belltell, Bharti Airtel, China Mobile, Clearwire, Datame, E-Plus, FarEastone, First International Telecom Corp,KT, Omantel, Nextwave, Packet One, Smoltelecom, SoftBank, Tatung Infocomm, Vividwireless, Vodafone, Voentelecom, Woosh.
GTI was formed to promote the TD-LTE ecosystem as a major standard in mobile broadband technology and drive the early development TD-LTE networks. Seven operators including Aero2, Bharti Airtel, China Mobile, Clearwire, E-Plus, Softbank Mobile and Vodafone jointly kicked off GTI activities in February during Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.
GTI objectives are:
1) Energizing the creation of a world-class and a growth-focused business environment;
2) Delivering great customer experience and bringing operational efficiencies;
3) Promoting convergence of TD-LTE and LTE FDD in order to maximize the economy of scale;
4) Facilitating multilateral cooperation between and/or among operators.
GTI has started preparing the 2nd Workshop and initiated the discussions on the technical areas which will be investigated among GTI operators.
Vividwireless joins global TD-LTE promotion initiative [May 19, 2011]
vividwireless a Seven Group Holdings Limited [media-related] company, owns and operates Australia’s first 4G wireless broadband network. vividwireless launched in Perth in March, 2010. The network has since been expanded to cover select parts of metropolitan Sydney and Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra and Brisbane.
Vividwireless – which presently operates mobile WiMAX networks in capital cities – has joined the Global TD-LTE Initiative (time division long term evolution) launched at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in February.
GTI, which held its first working meeting in Guangzhou earlier this month, was formed to promote the TD-LTE ecosystem as a major standard in mobile broadband technology and drive the early development TD-LTE networks. Its founding members were ChinaMobile, Bharti Airtel, Softbank Mobile, Vodafone, Clearwire, E-Plus, and Aero2. Vividwireless says it was invited to join at the launch.Commenting on the launch of GTI at the time, Julien Grivolas, principal analyst at Ovum said: “A certain scale for LTE TDD was guaranteed by strong support from China Mobile, the largest operator in the world. However, as TD-SCDMA [China’s 3G mobile standard] proved to its cost, this is not necessarily enough to make LTE TDD technology a global success. China Mobile consequently considered it strategically vital to garner support from other key players.”
He added: “This LTE TDD evangelism started years ago, often behind the scenes, and finally came to fruition with the creation of the GTI. As a consequence, the main merit of the GTI announcement really lies in the official support for LTE TDD (and better harmonisation with LTE FDD) from a number of international players.
“With heavyweights such as China Mobile, Bharti Airtel, Softbank Mobile, and Vodafone Group – serving more than 1.1 billion subscribers in total at the end of 2010 – the GTI is certainly heading in the right direction. However, to further contribute to the virtuous cycle that the GTI aims to fuel, the organisation remains fully open to all operators and technology vendors interested in promoting LTE TDD.”
Vividwireless said that the GTI would “organise a series of activities to bring TD-LTE operators and vendors together to share development strategies and technology know-how, expediting the development of terminals and fostering global roaming and low-cost terminals.”
Vividwireless trialled LTE in Sydney earlier this year and says “The trials…demonstrated that TD-LTE can deliver wireless broadband that is faster than ADSL2+, with peak speeds as high as 128Mbps and consistent ‘real world’ speeds between 40 – 70Mbps.”
Following the trial the company said it was sufficiently impressed to consider using TD-LTE rather than WiMAX for its planned major east coast network rollouts. CEO Martin Mercer said “The technology is far more mature than we had expected. The Huawei SingleRAN solution [used in WiMAX mode in Vividwireless’ networks today] is basically ready to go today and is at a price point that would enable us to take service to market at prices comparable to what we offer today.
“We could deploy this technology in our east coast rollout and provide customers with services superior to those we provide today and equivalent prices. The question for us now based on the results of the trial is: do we rollout TD-LTE on the east coast…and do we deploy it in other markets as well?“
vividwireless First To Trial 100Mbps Broadband TD-LTE In Australia [Nov 10, 2010] (emphasis is mine)
Leading 4G wireless broadband provider, vividwireless, today announced the first
Australian trial of superfast mobile wireless broadband – TD-LTE – (Time-Division
Duplex Long Term Evolution) which can deliver peak speeds of more than 100Mbps.
vividwireless CEO Martin Mercer said the trial with technology partner Huawei Australia
was part of the company’s continuing technology roadmap assessment.“vividwireless is trialing the advanced TD-LTE technology to evaluate and determine the
very best mobile voice and broadband service to meet our customers’ future needs.
vividwireless is determined to ensure that it retains its ranking as Perth’s fastest wireless
broadband provider,” he said.Huawei’s global experience with the technology has found TD-LTE can deliver wireless
broadband that is much faster than ADSL2+, with peak speeds of more than 100Mbps.
The trial will cover the market readiness of TD-LTE, including the technology’s capacity,
coverage and ‘real world’ performance.“Demand for high speed wireless connectivity is increasing rapidly. Customers want fast,
reliable HD video streaming, gaming, communications, transactions and other
entertainment to be available wherever they are,” said Mr Mercer.“Our current network satisfies this demand and this trial will help us to ensure that we
continue to be Australia’s leading wireless broadband provider,” he added.The trial will commence in December 2010 in inner-city Sydney around Redfern, as well
as Western Sydney around Horsley Park. These locations will allow vividwireless to test
the performance of the technology in high demand, high density, inner city conditions
such as apartments and cafes, as well as suburban conditions.Huawei Australia Chief Technology Officer Peter Rossi said, “Having worked with
vividwireless in rolling out its Perth network and the initial footprints in Sydney,
Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra and Brisbane, we are delighted to be working on this
TD-LTE trial.“Huawei’s SingleRAN solution allows vividwireless to make a smooth transition from
WiMAX to TD-LTE to suit its network requirements, and with Huawei holding the title of
the world’s number-one LTE essential patent holder, vividwireless will always have a
cutting-edge mobile network,” he concluded.
Ovum encourages operators in developed countries to be pragmatic [May 6, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Ovum has highlighted the potential of LTE TDD on many occasions, but has also pointed out the various challenges it faces. In particular we have highlighted that the current status of the device ecosystem may negatively impact the pace of rollout. Devices are always a crucial success factor for any kind of technology, but for LTE TDD they are even more important. This is largely due to the fact that most of the operators that have announced aggressive LTE TDD plans are based in emerging markets (China, India, and Russia).This means that low-cost devices will have to be made available quickly to serve these markets. In that sense, the creation of the Global TD-LTE Initiative at Mobile World Congress 2011 is a step in the right direction.
Launch of the GTI accelerates ecosystem development
In February 2011, China Mobile, Bharti Airtel, Softbank Mobile, Vodafone, Clearwire, E-Plus, and Aero2 officially launched the Global TD-LTE Initiative (GTI). The organization will focus on promoting the fast development of LTE TDD technology, promoting the convergence of LTE TDD and FDD modes to maximize economies of scale, and sharing the ecosystem with other TDD technologies, such as the Japanese eXtended Global Platform (XGP) technology.
In the mobile telecoms industry, scale is vital – something that WiMAX can testify to. A certain scale for LTE TDD was guaranteed by strong support from China Mobile, the largest operator in the world. However, as TD-SCDMA proved to its cost, this is not necessarily enough to make LTE TDD technology a global success. China Mobile consequently considered it strategically vital to garner support from other key players (as stated in our report TD-LTE, China Mobile’s long-term engagement with ‘TD’, OVUM051850). Attracting vendors’ interest was the easy part given China Mobile’s size, but making sure that other operators would consider the LTE TDD option required more imagination. This LTE TDD evangelism started years ago, often behind the scenes, and finally came to fruition with the creation of the GTI. As a consequence, the main merit of the GTI announcement really lies in the official support for LTE TDD (and better harmonization with LTE FDD) from a number of international players. With heavyweights such as China Mobile, Bharti Airtel, Softbank Mobile, and Vodafone Group – serving more than 1.1 billion subscribers in total at the end of 2010 – the GTI is certainly heading in the right direction. However, to further contribute to the virtuous cycle that the GTI aims to fuel, the organization remains fully open to all operators and technology vendors interested in promoting LTE TDD.
China Mobile will not be the first to launch commercial LTE TDD services
The GTI launch event in Barcelona confirmed what we expected (see the report Global opportunities for LTE TDD, OT00063-016): with a launch expected in 2012, China Mobile will not be the first operator in the world with commercial LTE TDD services. However, it is true that the operator’s large-scale trial networks to be deployed in seven cities in 2011 will be much bigger than the majority of LTE (TDD and FDD) commercial networks available at that time.
Among the LTE TDD frontrunners, the GTI event confirmed Aero2 from Poland as a candidate to become the first with commercial services, in as early as May 2011. The operator will use equipment from Huawei to construct a converged LTE FDD/TDD network. Softbank Mobile also unveiled plans to commercially launch LTE TDD services in Japan before the end of 2011. Like Aero2, the Japanese operator will use the 2.5GHz spectrum band. Softbank Mobile recognizes that the timeline set for its LTE TDD project is aggressive, but claimed that it has full confidence in vendors to overcome the various challenges. In Softbank’s opinion, LTE TDD is better suited to handle mobile data services. This is because the technology’s asymmetric nature fits well with mobile broadband data usage patterns and because of the greater technical efficiency of LTE TDD versus LTE FDD in terms of smart antenna systems. Finally, the official support of LTE TDD by Bharti Airtel means that there are now three 2.3GHz broadband wireless access spectrum owners committed to rolling out the technology in India. Speaking at the event, the CEO of Bharti Airtel, Sanjay Kapoor, stated that support from operators in India and China will ensure scale for LTE TDD and definitely signals the end of WiMAX’s hopes.
Ovum encourages operators in developed countries to be pragmatic
So far, operators have continued to favor the FDD variant of LTE, especially in developed markets. However, we recommend that these operators, which sometimes own unused TDD spectrum, closely monitor the development of the LTE TDD market. The reason is simple: given the rise of data traffic, all spectrum is valuable. They should continue to adopt a very pragmatic approach to LTE TDD. This consists of ensuring LTE FDD/TDD integration into network equipment now and into devices once the LTE TDD device ecosystem is sufficiently mature. If LTE TDD becomes widely adopted, by 2014-15 LTE FDD operators may well be tempted to leverage LTE TDD cost benefits to add extra capacity to their networks.
The E-Plus Group, China Mobile and ZTE sign a MOU for TD-LTE field trial in Germany [Feb 14, 2011]
The E-Plus Group, China Mobile Communications Corp. and ZTE will work together to launch a TD-LTE field trial in Germany in Q1 2011. The trial is based on 2.6 GHz spectrum that E-Plus acquired in the German spectrum auction. China Mobile, with its leading position and rich experience in the operation and maintenance of TDD networks, will empower this trial. ZTE will provide base stations developed on the advanced SDR platform and co-siting solution of LTE FDD/TD-LTE, which is a breakthrough in the industry.
The E-Plus Group is the third largest mobile network operator in Germany. The E-Plus Group has been one of the most innovative mobile operators during years. After revolutionizing the mobile voice market for larger user groups E-Plus is now opening the mobile data market for the masses with low-priced data tariff schemes and the roll-out of a HSPA+ network with speeds up to 21.6 Mbps. On top of the high speed mobile data network roll out, E-Plus will now test TD-LTE in the field. The E-Plus Group is one of the founding members of the Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) Alliance.
The E-Plus Group and ZTE agreed and scheduled a field trial program for 2011 consisting of several streams to investigate the capabilities of ZTE’s commercial SDR equipment and best utilisation of the spectrum holdings of E-Plus in 1.8 GHz, 2.1 GHz and 2.6 GHz, both TD-LTE and LTE FDD.
China Mobile claims the largest number of mobile subscribers in the world. From TD-SCDMA to TD-LTE, China Mobile is devoted to promoting TDD industry being equipped with rich experience in TDD network deployment. Furthermore, China Mobile is pro-active in TDD technology globalization and convergence of TD-LTE and LTE FDD industry by seeking cooperation with overseas operators in Europe, Asia, America and Australia.
With joint effort of the E-Plus Group, China Mobile and ZTE, this trial will not only demonstrate the latest progress of TD-LTE/LTE FDD convergence in standards and industry development, but also lay an excellent ground for the full commercialization of TD-LTE.
About the E-Plus Group
The E-Plus Group is the challenger on the German mobile communications market. Simple services tailored to customer needs and a major reduction in call and data charges can be traced back to the initiative of the third-largest mobile network operator in Germany. After revolutionizing the voice market for larger user groups now the company opens the mobile data market for the masses by its massive network roll-out and highly attractive low-priced data tariff schemes. As a result of innovative business models, modern structures and strong partnerships the E-Plus Group was able to significantly strengthen its market position and show a more dynamic and profitable development than the market. Since 2005 E-Plus Mobilfunk GmbH und Co. KG has developed into a family of brands offering target group-specific services and thus breaks new ground in mobile communications in Germany. More than 20 million customers are using the network of the E-Plus Group to make calls and send text messages or data. The Group generates an annual revenue of €3.2 billion (2010) and employs more than 2,500 people (FTE) in Germany.
326 Million Dual-Mode 4G Devices to be Activated by 2016 [May 31, 2011]
326 Million Dual-Mode (3G + LTE) Devices will be Activated by 2016 according to Maravedis’ latest research titled “Global 4G Device Forecast 2011-2016”.
“All LTE devices activated during 2010, including USB data cards, modems and notebooks, were single-mode,” said Cintia Garza, author of the report. “However, LTE+3G smartphones have emerged during 2011 as more LTE operators begin to add LTE to their device offering, in particular smart phones whose adoption will be key to LTE uptake.”
In the United States, Sprint’s early success with WiMAX smart phones suggests a very promising uptake for LTE smart phones. Many other carriers around the world are also looking at introducing smart phones in their LTE device portfolio by the end of 2011, such as NTT DoCoMo (Japan), and Yota (Russia).
“By 2013, more than 50% of LTE devices activated worldwide will support both FDD and TDD duplex modes, once TD-LTE deployments consolidate in China, India, Malaysia, Korea and other APAC countries,” continued Garza. “On the other hand, 75% of the LTE devices will support legacy systems (2G/3G) and 9% will support WiMAX technology; these devices will mainly include smart phones, tablets and USB dongles”.
Tablets are also one of the most promising devices in the 4G device market. Maravedis’ report predicts tablet shipments will grow from 46 million in 2011 to nearly 150 million by 2016. Apple iOS is expected to remain the most popular tablet for the coming years, reaching 46% market share by 2016.Additional Research Findings:
- 260 million dual-mode (TD LTE + FDD LTE) devices will be activated by 2016
- Android will account for 48.5% of the smart phone market, Windows 21% and iPhone (iOS) 16.5% by 2016.
- APAC and Europe will account for the largest number of smart phones and tablets activated by 2016.
- By 2016, 95% of the tablet installed base will be 3G/4G enabled.
Source:Maravedis
LTE Subscriptions to Experience Growth of over 3,400% Between 2011 and 2015 [June 9, 2011]
Between mobile applications, data, voice, and streaming and broadcast video, global wireless bandwidth usage has increased ten-fold since 2008, and there are no signs of it stopping. This obsession to connect anywhere, any time, on any device, viewing any type of digital content is about to have a very real and sudden impact on the wireless world. In-Stat (www.in-stat.com) forecasts that LTE subscriptions will experience a 3,400% explosion of growth between 2011 and 2015.
“Although there are regional variations in the adoption of cellular services, due in part to current available technology, LTE will clearly be the 4G service of choice moving forward,” says Chris Kissel, Analyst. “3G will remain the predominant service subscription, also with robust growth, but over the next 5 years things will trend toward LTE as 4G service availability is ramped up.”
Recent research by In-Stat found the following:
- North American FDD-LTE subscriptions are set to increase roughly 2100% from 2011 to 2015. In 2015, the ratio of North American FDD-LTE subscribers to TDD-LTE subscribers will be almost 14 to 1.
- 3G subscriptions remain dominant with WCDMA technology capturing 26% of 3G subscriptions. CDMA Rev B will be the smallest segment of the 3G technologies based on subscriptions.
- 2G service subscriptions will peak in 2012, then they will begin a slow decline during the remainder of the forecast period.
- More than half of all new deployments are LTE.
Mobile broadband subscribers overtake fixed broadband [June 7, 2011] (“in the text” emphasis is mine)
Market research firm Infonetics Research today released excerpts from its latest Fixed and Mobile Subscribers market forecast report
ANALYST NOTE
“As we predicted, mobile broadband subscribers surpassed wireline broadband subscribers in 2010 (558 million vs. 500 million). Fixed-line services are not dead, though, especially with China giving a boost to the worldwide wireline broadband base with its massive fiber-based program led by the Chinese government, which has set a 20Mbps benchmark for all broadband subscribers, where most today receive 2Mbps to 3Mbps at best,” notes Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research’s principal analyst for mobile infrastructure.
FIXED AND MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
- Infonetics forecasts the number of mobile phone subscribers to grow to 6.4 billion in 2015 (the current global population is 6.9 billion)
- In 2010, Asia Pacific accounted for nearly half of all mobile subscribers
- The number of cellular mobile broadband subscribers jumped almost 60% in 2010 to 558 million worldwide and should top 2 billion by 2015
- Access lines (residential, business, and wholesale PSTN, POTS, and ISDN connections) are forecast to continue declining, falling to 759 million worldwide by 2015
- As access lines disappear, new forms of wireline broadband continue to thrive; the number of wireline broadband subscribers (DSL, cable, PON, Ethernet FTTH, FTTB+LAN) hit 500 million worldwide in 2010
- WiMAX, in high demand in many regions with inadequate wired infrastructure, remains modest in scale but not growth: despite the global recession, the number of WiMAX subscribers grew 75% in 2010, with more strong growth ahead, reaching 126 million in 2015
- The number of VoIP subscribers (including VoIP over access lines and over other broadband lines, such as cable) is forecast to grow from 157 million in 2010 to 264 million in 2015
- While growth in the number of video subscribers is being challenged by over-the-top (OTT) and free-to-air services, telco IPTV subscribers are forecast to triple between 2010 and 2015, and digital and satellite cable subscribers will see healthy annual growth as analog cable video subscribers continue their inevitable decline
REPORT SYNOPSIS
Infonetics’ report provides worldwide and regional market size and forecasts through 2015 for access lines and fixed and mobile subscribers, including cable broadband, DSL, PON and Ethernet FTTH, residential and SOHO VoIP, telco IPTV, cable video, satellite video, mobile (GSM, W-CDMA, TD-SCDMA, cdmaOne, CDMA2000), cellular mobile broadband (W-CDMA/HSPA, CDMA2000/EV-DO, LTE, WiMAX, phone-based, PC-based), WiMAX (802.16m, 802.16e, 802.16d), and IMS subscribers. See report prospectus for details.
The report includes customizable pivot charts and analysis comparing subscriber types, regional service provider subscriber highlights, fundamental drivers of the market, technology developments, excerpts from Infonetics’ service provider capex reports, and analysis of overall market conditions for service providers, enterprises, subscribers, and the global economy.
Larry Page to boost Google even more as becoming CEO again
Choose any of the thousands (if not tens of thousands) mirrored reports by AP that Google founder hopes to prove he’s ready to be CEO [April 1, 2011] to learn the hopes and worries of the fans and anxious investors about the return of Larry Page [38] as CEO of Google after 10 years of Eric Schmidt’s [55] leadership.
Warning update: Google as an evil enterprise: the perception changes as vital APIs are shut down [June 1, 2011]
An update from the Chairman [Eric Schmidt, Jan 20, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
When I joined Google in 2001 I never imagined—even in my wildest dreams—that we would get as far, as fast as we have today. Search has quite literally changed people’s lives—increasing the collective sum of the world’s knowledge and revolutionizing advertising in the process. And our emerging businesses—display, Android, YouTube and Chrome—are on fire. Of course, like any successful organization we’ve had our fair share of good luck, but the entire team—now over 24,000 Googlers globally—deserves most of the credit.
And as our results today show, the outlook is bright. But as Google has grown, managing the business has become more complicated. So Larry, Sergey and I have been talking for a long time about how best to simplify our management structure and speed up decision making—and over the holidays we decided now was the right moment to make some changes to the way we are structured.
For the last 10 years, we have all been equally involved in making decisions. This triumvirate approach has real benefits in terms of shared wisdom, and we will continue to discuss the big decisions among the three of us. But we have also agreed to clarify our individual roles so there’s clear responsibility and accountability at the top of the company.
Larry will now lead product development and technology strategy, his greatest strengths, and starting from April 4 he will take charge of our day-to-day operations as Google’s Chief Executive Officer. In this new role I know he will merge Google’s technology and business vision brilliantly. I am enormously proud of my last decade as CEO, and I am certain that the next 10 years under Larry will be even better! Larry, in my clear opinion, is ready to lead.
Sergey [Brin, 37] has decided to devote his time and energy to strategic projects, in particular working on new products. His title will be Co-Founder. He’s an innovator and entrepreneur to the core, and this role suits him perfectly.
As Executive Chairman, I will focus wherever I can add the greatest value: externally, on the deals, partnerships, customers and broader business relationships, government outreach and technology thought leadership that are increasingly important given Google’s global reach; and internally as an advisor to Larry and Sergey.
We are confident that this focus will serve Google and our users well in the future. Larry, Sergey and I have worked exceptionally closely together for over a decade—and we anticipate working together for a long time to come. As friends, co-workers and computer scientists we have a lot in common, most important of all a profound belief in the potential for technology to make the world a better place. We love Google—our people, our products and most of all the opportunity we have to improve the lives of millions of people around the world.
Then watch this Perspective from Google: Eric Schmidt & Larry Page – Zeitgeist Europe 2010 [May 19, 2010] to understand the quite subtle differences between the two leaders. Note that Larry Page is introverted vs. the typical extroverts as business leaders. Note as well (from reply to a question) that Google is not doing the typical business planning exercise but Larry and Brin ideas are simply financed because the operation is generating sufficient revenues for that. This is giving them a unique competitive advantage of moving along innovative things while all the rest of the industry is loosing time with planning.
From Zeitgeist 2010 Google Partner Forum Europe held 17-18 May 2010. Featuring Eric Schmidt (Chairman of the Board & CEO, Google) & Larry Page (Co-Founder & President, Products, Google).[from 1:20 he is talking about how much he was struck by captioning and translation …]
Note: Switch on the caption and try also the translation on this video. Generally it is a great experience (although not always perfect, since it depends on the clarity of the speech). More information on the technology is available under the Captions tag on the YouTube blog. Best to start is probably here: The Future Will Be Captioned: Improving Accessibility on YouTube [March 4, 2010] and here: Happy Birthday Automatic Captions! Celebrate with more videos and higher quality [Nov 19, 2010]
For detailed analysis – however – of the possible effects of Larry Page becoming CEO again it is better to turn to Fast Company’s earlier 7 Ways Larry Page Is Defining Google’s Future [March 16, 2011] article (quite long). Here is the essence:
The company line on Page’s ascension is that it does not mark any effort to “fix something” at Google. After all, the company reported stellar earnings the day it announced that Page would replace Eric Schmidt. It generated more than $29 billion in revenue in 2010 and 24% annual growth. Page has been part of what has been an unusual but effective ruling troika with Schmidt and fellow cofounder, Sergey Brin.
And yet Page is becoming CEO at a crucial inflection point in Google’s history. The company is beset by rivals everywhere — Apple and Facebook, both of which are closing off chunks of Internet activity beyond Google’s reach; Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, and others that compete fiercely against it in multiple markets; and even the U.S., the EU, and other governments that want to curtail Google’s ambition. Lately, Google has had more and more public whiffs (see Google Wave, Google Buzz, Google TV).
It’s true that Page is not stepping into a dire situation as Steve Jobs did at Apple in 1997. Page doesn’t need to be a turnaround artist. Yet he has to do something potentially harder: make changes to a winning formula in the face of intense scrutiny, when momentum appears to be against him. To borrow a sports aphorism, winning your first championship is easy compared with trying to repeat.
To outsiders, Page might seem an odd choice to be CEO. He’s personally reserved, unabashedly geeky, and said to be introverted. We won’t be seeing him keynoting A-list conferences with grand vision statements or sitting down for intimate conversations with the press (Google declined to make him available for this article). But after talking to high-level Google executives who work closely with Page, as well as ex-Googlers and other outside observers, a picture begins to emerge of how the search company will change under him. Here’s our seven-part guide to the Google of today — and tomorrow.
1. A Little Top-Down Leadership Goes a Long Way
For much of its early life, Google reveled in its bottom-up culture. The governing philosophy was “Let’s hire lots of really smart people and let them do whatever they want,” says Brian Kennish, a Google engineer from 2003 to late 2010. Employees — especially engineers — were given unparalleled leeway in deciding what they wanted to work on and encouraged to use 20% of their time to come up with new ideas.
The archetypal product of this era was Gmail, which was born when engineer Paul Buchheit hacked it up in a single day in the summer of 2001. He showed the prototype to his colleagues, and when they expressed interest, Buchheit pulled other promising engineers onto his team. This kind of thing happened time and again at Google; among other products conceived deep within the company’s ranks were Google News, search suggestions, and AdSense, the contextual advertising system that accounted for nearly $9 billion in revenue in 2010.
Kennish, echoing several other former Googlers, adds, “This system worked really well until the company reached about 10,000 workers. After that, things started to break down.” (Google now has 24,000 employees and plans to hire another 6,000 in 2011.)
Android represents a new order, one that Page, who has long played a role in product strategy, will accelerate. … Page and Brin pushed Google into mobile, buying Android when the project was an eight-person startup in 2005. (Schmidt later joked that they didn’t tell him about it until after the deal.) At the time, Google’s mobile strategy was a hodgepodge effort to install its apps on lots of different mobile phones. Page realized that game would never scale. Eustace says it would have required “5,000 people, each one trying to port apps to all the different phones.” For Google to truly benefit from the transition to mobile phones, it would need to shoot for something bigger. Page gave Andy Rubin, Android’s indomitable chief, the resources to run the division as an autonomous unit. Their ambition helped Google settle on a course to release an entire operating system, rather than a single phone. What’s more, Google made Android free and allowed phone manufacturers and carriers to tinker with the software.
Android, then, is as much a marvel of management as it is of engineering. “It wasn’t that Larry handed down his vision on stone tablets,” Eustace says. (In other words, he’s not Steve.) But Page had the founding idea that “what was necessary was an ecosystem,” and Android wouldn’t be where it is today if he hadn’t pushed for Google to do something more ambitious.
Page has done this elsewhere. Google’s recent success with YouTube in the face of an unrelenting stream of criticism can be chalked up to a similar management tactic: Page empowered YouTube CEO Salar Kamangar in much the same way he has Android’s Rubin. … As Page takes over, he’ll still find product seedlings everywhere. Google’s product lineup is replete with services that offer overlapping, needlessly duplicative functionality. Android’s triumph should serve as a sweet reminder of the value in imposing just enough discipline before letting the kids chase the ice-cream truck.
See also:
– Google Buys Android for Its Mobile Arsenal [Aug 17, 2005]: “The 22-month-old startup, based in Palo Alto, Calif., brings to Google a wealth of talent, including co-founder Andy Rubin, who previously started mobile-device maker Danger Inc.”
– CrunchBase on Android
In July 2005, Google acquired Android, a small startup company based in Palo Alto, CA. Android’s co-founders who went to work at Google included Andy Rubin (co-founder of Danger), Rich Miner (co-founder of Wildfire), Nick Sears (once VP at T-Mobile), and Chris White (one of the first engineers at WebTV). At the time, little was known about the functions of Android other than they made software for mobile phones. This began rumors that Google was planning to enter the mobile phone market, although it was unclear at the time what function they might perform in that market.
– Introducing Android [Nov 5, 2007]
[2:19] The creators of Android talk about their new open platform for mobile phones and the Open Handset Alliance. To learn more, visit: http://www.openhandsetalliance.com
– Where’s my Gphone? [Andy Rubin, Nov 5, 2007]
Android is the first truly open and comprehensive platform for mobile devices. It includes an operating system, user-interface and applications — all of the software to run a mobile phone, but without the proprietary obstacles that have hindered mobile innovation. We have developed Android in cooperation with the Open Handset Alliance, which consists of more than 30 technology and mobile leaders including Motorola, Qualcomm, HTC and T-Mobile. Through deep partnerships with carriers, device manufacturers, developers, and others, we hope to enable an open ecosystem for the mobile world by creating a standard, open mobile software platform. We think the result will ultimately be a better and faster pace for innovation that will give mobile customers unforeseen applications and capabilities.
– Google, Bidding For Phone Ads, Lures Partners [The Wall Street Journal, Nov 6, 2007]
Among the handset makers that have signed on to the initiative are Taiwan’s HTC Corp., Samsung Electronics Co. and Motorola Inc. Operator partners include Deutsche Telekom AG’s T-Mobile, Sprint Nextel Corp. and Japan’s NTT DoCoMo Inc. (See the entire list of Google’s partners.) …
But until new handsets based on Android come to market, it won’t be clear how far operators have gone to satisfy Google’s desire for open mobile software. Some carriers have said they still want to make sure Android doesn’t allow sensitive user information to fall into the hands of rogue third-party developers, leading to invasions of privacy and security risks. Those issues partly explain why large U.S. operators such as AT&T Inc. and Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group PLC, have yet to sign on to Google’s initiative.
Verizon Wireless is still weighing whether to join, a person familiar with the company’s thinking said. AT&T, in part because it exclusively carries Apple Inc.’s iPhone in the U.S., is restricted from partnering with Google, people familiar with the matter say. …
Sprint hasn’t agreed to carry a Google-powered phone yet, but signed on to the Android alliance while it continues talks. John Garcia, the carrier’s senior vice president of product development, said using Android in phones would make it easier to get a variety of mobile applications to consumers. Mr. Garcia said mobile-game makers routinely have to test their applications on an array of Sprint phones, writing specific programming code for each one. That could become a thing of the past if an open platform becomes widespread.
– Android Open Source Project [Oct 20, 2008]
[4:26] An introduction to Android Open Source Project. Android is the first free, open source, and fully customizable mobile platform. Android offers a full stack: an operating system, middleware, and key mobile applications. It also contains a rich set of APIs that allows third-party developers to develop great applications. Learn more at source.android.com.
From this (my own) blog:
– OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1 [July 5, 2010]
– Android 2.2 (Froyo) excitement is just the tip of the iceberg for the current Android momentum [July 9 – Sept 10, 2010]
– Android 2.3 (Gingerbread) and 3.0 (Honeycomb) [Dec 30, 2010 – Feb 4, 2011]
– What’s behind Android’s race to No. 1? [March 8, 2011]:
It’s no longer the era of the BlackBerry — or the iPhone. According to a market research report released this week, Google’s Android operating system now is the most popular smartphone platform in the United States.
The first phone running Android, the T-Mobile G1, wasn’t announced until September 2008. Only 2½ years later, the research firm comScore says Android is No. 1 in the U.S. with 31.2% of the market, compared with 30.4% for BlackBerry’s business-friendly operating system and 24.7% for the iOS from Apple, which powers the seemingly omnipresent iPhone.
What accounts for this meteoric rise? Here’s a summary of what makes Android popular, based on conversations with smartphone experts, buzz on the tech blogs and reader responses to our query posted on the @cnntech Twitter feed.
- Consumers like choices
- There’s basically one iPhone
- There are dozens of Android options
- Integration with the internet
- Openness of the Android Market
- Apps that do what you need, not what you don’t: In terms of app numbers, Android is losing big to Apple. Google’s Android Market has 150,000 apps. Apple has more than 350,000. But Gikas said the Android apps pretty much cover everything an average consumer would want a phone to do, so having more apps isn’t necessarily the best selling point.
- Stealing the best of everything and then giving it away
– Platform Versions [Android Developers site, extracted on April 1, 2011]
| Platform | API Level | Distribution |
| Android 1.5 | 3 | 2.7% |
| Android 1.6 | 4 | 3.5% |
| Android 2.1 | 7 | 27.2% |
| Android 2.2 | 8 | 63.9% |
| Android 2.3 | 9 | 0.8% |
| Android 2.3.3 | 10 | 1.7% |
| Android 3.0 | 11 | 0.2% |
2. Spur On Your Frenemies [encourage your “enemy friends” to do something]
2009.04.30. [2:33] What is a browser? was the question we asked over 50 passersby of different ages and backgrounds in the Times Square in New York. Watch the many responses people came up with.Less than 8% of people who were interviewwd on this day knew what a browser was.
[But most of them knew Google, and most of them considered Google a browser.]
Two years ago, Google sent a camera crew to Times Square, in New York, and asked passersby a simple question: What is a web browser? “A browser’s a search engine,” said one guy. Another respondent was pretty sure that “it’s what I search through — like, to find things.” When asked which browser they use, most people said Google, while a few renegades stuck to Yahoo and AOL. None of these, of course, are browsers.
…
So if you’ve ever wondered why Google needed its own web browser, called Chrome, here’s why: It needed Chrome to goad Microsoft, Apple, and other browser makers into reigniting innovation in what had become a moribund market. Everyone’s efforts collectively improve the web as a whole, which is good for Google and its ad business. Even if its rivals merely copied Chrome’s advancements — superfast, stable, and, thus far, impossible to hack — Google saw that it could achieve its larger goals.
… Expect Page to launch even more initiatives that may seem futile when considered alone but that are, in fact, designed to wake up drowsy competitors. Think about such “puzzling” Google moves as releasing its own branded phones — the Nexus One and Nexus S — and competing against the handset makers and carriers that it’s supposed to be courting. Or about Google’s initiative to wire America with fiber-optic lines, as its plan to roll out superfast Internet to several cities suggests. Google really wants Verizon and others to pick up the pace. And when those rivals do, Google will benefit from the innovations that result.
See also: Sun Valley: Schmidt Didn’t Want to Build Chrome Initially, He Says [July 9, 2009]
Comment: Chrome came out in September 2008.
3. When in Doubt, Check the Data
Deciding questions by data is to Google what eye-catching design is to Apple, or what global supply-chain management is to Walmart. It forms the spine of every major decision, and nearly every minor one. Data’s preeminence in Google’s culture helps prevent anyone at the company from pulling rank. It also wards off resistance to change. This will only become more important as Page takes over as the top decision maker at a company whose core search algorithm, PageRank, is named for him.
… Even Page has proved willing to reverse himself if the numbers don’t bear him out. …
Google’s devotion to data isn’t always an asset (as we’ll explore momentarily), but there’s likely no other way for the company to conceive of itself because that’s how Page operates. “I was talking to Larry on Saturday,” says Nikesh Arora, Google’s chief business officer, when we sit down to talk the following Tuesday. “I told him that I’d gotten back from nine cities in 12 days — Munich, Copenhagen, Davos, Zurich, New Delhi, Bombay, London, San Francisco. There’s a silence for five seconds. And then he’s like, ‘That’s only eight.’ “
4. When in Creative Mode, Don’t Start With Data
… As Google grows into more arenas where engineering alone can’t carry the day, most notably in social and handheld interfaces, Page will have to tweak this data-driven mind-set to embrace more creative types if the company is to thrive. Google has never invested heavily in hiring classically trained designers, and insiders say that due to a constant shortage of creative staff, engineers sometimes decide the look of their own products. …
And yet, despite Page’s personal inclinations, there are signs that Google is pushing itself to transcend its design deficiencies. Matias Duarte joined the company’s Android team last year from Palm, where he was lauded for creating the well-regarded user interface for its mobile operating system called WebOS. Duarte admits that since signing on, he has come to rely on data as a tool in the design process — but not, he insists, as a crutch. Whereas the look and feel of Apple’s software and hardware are kept secret and revealed to just a few people, Duarte’s designs are shared widely inside Google and with other partners and testers. (Google routinely tests products this way before sharing them with the world, calling the process “dogfooding,” as in the company eats its own dog food. Or, in Duarte’s case, “Droid-fooding.”)
Duarte points out that this openness has led to novel insights into what users want. Honeycomb, Google’s new tablet-specific version of Android, includes an eye-catching interface to show people all the recent applications they’ve been using. It’s a feature that the iPad sorely misses — and it came about only because of extensive statistical analysis of usage patterns. The lesson: Google can succeed in more creative pursuits if it pushes the limits of its data-centric culture but still relies on that culture to enhance creative solutions. “We don’t design by committee; we don’t design by focus group,” Duarte says. “But we do verify everything we’re trying to do with our design with stringent, large-scale user testing.” …
5. A Social Life Is Overrated
… Page’s apparent lack of personal interest on the web’s major social sites creates a convenient narrative for Google’s dreadful record in the space — a string of failures that include Dodgeball, Jaiku, Lively, Buzz, and Wave. Orkut, the social network that Google engineer Orkut Büyükkökten launched in 2004, is still alive (it’s big in Brazil), but few Googlers consider it a success. Meanwhile, Google has had several social-networking savants in the ‘plex and let them slip away to found other companies, among them Evan Williams (Twitter) and Dennis Crowley (Foursquare). …
… “There’s an EQ — an emotional intelligence — around social software, and it just might be out of Google’s reach,” says Jason Shellen, who spent four years as a business-development exec at Google after it acquired Blogger and who now works at AOL. …
… But that’s not to say Google is giving up on social. Far from it. Its success relies on understanding how the web works, and the web is getting more social all the time. Google has continued to acquire social startups — most recently Slide for $228 million (not to mention its rumored interest in buying Twitter for $10 billion). According to sources, Google isn’t planning a Facebook clone but rather it intends to roll out new social features across all its products. Its ultimate aim seems to be to collect and analyze the social activity that’s going on across the web, beyond Facebook’s walls. …
… If Google can’t compete with Facebook directly, perhaps it can render Facebook moot by making everything else on the web feel like Facebook. Still, building a fun web-based community turns out to be harder than building a great smartphone (witness the utter failure that is Apple’s Ping). Don’t be surprised if this is one arena where Page is happy merely to have a credible offering.
6. Listen Up: Talk Is Cheap
…
The company became the biggest search engine in the world because it built a better product, not because it created better TV ads than Yahoo.
Google’s build-it-and-they-will-come naïveté seems almost cute in the age of Apple. Many of Google’s advances go unnoticed by the public because nobody hears about them. Do iPhone owners know that Android lets you dictate email by voice? Imagine the marketing fun Apple would have there. Or that Google Voice rings all your phones when someone calls you, and transcribes your voice mail to boot?
…
With its new CEO an introvert, perhaps Google will never tap its inner Apple. But maybe, in the bigger picture, that’s a trade-off worth making. Page is not a CEO out of central casting, despite the fact that Wall Street and the media tend to prefer extroverts as leaders: the superhero who puffs out his chest and delivers bold, motivating pronouncements. According to some surprising forthcoming research from management professors at Harvard Business School, the University of North Carolina, and Wharton, though, introverts can be more successful leaders — particularly in dynamic, uncertain, and fast-changing environments like the tech industry. “They tend to be less threatened by others’ ideas,” says Adam Grant, a Wharton professor and coauthor of the study. “And they’ll collect a lot of them before determining a vision.” Because introverts spend more time listening than talking, they hear more ideas.
The hallmarks of Google culture, including the weekly TGIF [Thank God It’s Friday] sessions where Page and Brin take questions from employees, are precisely about creating dialogue. Even if the company relies less on 20% time for unfettered product development, Page’s personal style is likely to keep new ideas flowing. The key for Page is to “surround himself with some extroverts,” Grant says. “Extroversion and introversion are the only personality traits where you need a balance between the two to be an effective team.” As the success of the Bing sting indicates, Page seems to be listening to his extroverts in embracing a bolder public profile — not for himself, but for Google.
See also: What’s it like to work in Mountain View? [Google]
Transparency is a staple of Google’s working environment – all voices matter and Googlers enjoy a variety of opportunities to share information and voice questions and opinions. For example, every Friday we host a “TGIF” [Thank God It’s Friday] event in Charlie’s Cafe, where Googlers can learn about the company’s latest news and ask their tough questions in live Q&A sessions.
7. No Goal Is Too Big (And Some Are Too Small)
That audaciousness — the ambition to tackle a seemingly unsolvable problem with deep reservoirs of money and data — is the ultimate insight into what makes Google Googley. “When people come to Larry with ideas, he always wants it bigger,” says one ex-Googler. “His whole point is that only Google has the kind of resources to make big bets. The asset that Larry brings is to say, ‘Let’s go and make big things happen.’ ” (This may explain why Page isn’t interested in a Facebook killer: “With social, there isn’t a problem for Google to solve,” says the former Googler Shellen.)
…
That’s what’s thrilling about Page taking the helm at Google right now. You get the sense that under his leadership, Google could try its hand at anything. More than anything else during my interviews with people who know Page, one comment stands out: “I don’t care what you put in the article,” says David Lawee, Google’s head of acquisitions. “To me, this is the real story: Larry is a truly awesome inventor-entrepreneur. My aspiration for him is that he becomes one of the greatest inventors-entrepreneurs in history, in the realm of the Thomas Edisons of the world.”
The example used in the above article to prove the point is the Statistical Machine Translation research applied in Google’s machine-translation system:
[Franz] Och oversees Google’s machine-translation system, a spectacularly ambitious effort that analyzes text found on the web to create statistical models that can transform one language into another. Machine translation is far from perfect, but Google’s project, which began in 2004, has succeeded far beyond what most experts thought possible. Including Och. Google spent a year trying to recruit him; each time, he explained to Page and other execs that what they were asking for couldn’t be done. “They were very optimistic, and I tried to tell them to be cautious,” he says. “It’s really complicated, extremely expensive, and you need very large amounts of data.”
…
The company hired Och despite his skepticism, and today, machine translation (along with speech recognition) is one of Google’s best-known artificial-intelligence projects. It’s also a key competitive advantage. Even on the iPhone, you’ll use Google’s software to help you read that French road sign or to transform your voice commands into text searches. Och now seems bemused by this success. Google, he says, simply had far more resources — more data, more computing power, more money — than he ever thought possible. Google can now translate 58 different languages. “When I started at Google, if you told me that five years later we’d be able to translate Yiddish, Maltese, Icelandic, Azerbaijani, and Basque, I would have said, That’s just not going to happen,” he says. “But [Page and Brin] didn’t believe me. And I guess they were more right than I was.”
Inside Google Translate [July 9, 2010]
Let’s see for more details a presentation by Franz Och who oversees that work:
Google Faculty Summit 2009: Statistical Machine Translation [Oct 5, 2009]
Google Tech Talk, July 30, 2009 [49:50] Most state-of-the-art commercial machine translation systems in use today have been developed using a rules-based approach and require a lot of work by linguists to define vocabularies and grammars. Several research systems, including ours, take a different approach: we feed the computer with billions of words of text, both monolingual text in the target language, and aligned text consisting of examples of human translations between the languages.
[13:28 – 14:24] … some of the languages we’ve launched recently, Hindi, Thai and Hungarian … It is quite challenging for some of the languages to find data …
Doubling Up [Franz Josef Och, Sept 29, 2008]
Machine translation is hard. Natural languages are so complex and have so many ambiguities and exceptions that teaching a computer to translate between them turned out to be a much harder problem than people thought when the field of machine translation was born over 50 years ago. At Google Research, our approach is to have the machines learn to translate by using learning algorithms on gigantic amounts of monolingual and translated data. Another knowledge source is user suggestions. This approach allows us to constantly improve the quality of machine translations as we mine more data and get more and more feedback from users.
A nice property of the learning algorithms that we use is that they are largely language independent — we use the same set of core algorithms for all languages. So this means if we find a lot of translated data for a new language, we can just run our algorithms and build a new translation system for that language.
As a result, we were recently able to significantly increase the number of languages on translate.google.com. Last week, we launched eleven new languages: Catalan, Filipino, Hebrew, Indonesian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Serbian, Slovak, Slovenian, Ukrainian, Vietnamese. This increases the total number of languages from 23 to 34. Since we offer translation between any of those languages this increases the number of language pairs from 506 to 1122 (well, depending on how you count simplified and traditional Chinese you might get even larger numbers). We’re very happy that we can now provide free online machine translation for many languages that didn’t have any available translation system before.
So how far can we go with adding new languages in the future? Can we go to 40, 50 or even more languages? It is certainly getting harder, as less data is available for those languages and as a result it is harder to build systems that meet our quality bar. But we’re working on better learning algorithms and new ways to mine data and so even if we haven’t covered your favorite language yet, we hope that we will have it soon.
See also:
– Statistical machine translation live [April 28, 2006)]
– Google Translate adds 10 new languages… [May 15, 2008]: “We’ve recently added translation capabilities for 10 new languages to Google Translate, bringing the total to 23 languages. The newly featured languages include Bulgarian, Croatian, Czech, Danish, Finnish, Hindi, Norwegian, Polish, Romanian and Swedish.”
– Translate between 41 languages with Google Translate [Feb 26, 2009]: “recently added Turkish, Thai, Hungarian, Estonian, Albanian, Maltese, and Galician to the mix. The rollout of these seven additional languages marks a new milestone: automatic translations between 41 languages (1,640 language pairs!). This means we can now translate between languages read by 98% of Internet users.”
– 51 Languages in Google Translate [Aug 31, 2009]: “we’ve added 9 new languages to Google Translate: Afrikaans, Belarusian, Icelandic, Irish, Macedonian, Malay, Swahili, Welsh, and Yiddish, bringing the number of languages we support from 42 to 51.”
– A new look for Google Translate [Nov 16, 2009]:
Translate instantly: Say goodbye to the old “Translate” button. Google Translate now translates your text right as you type.
Read and write any language: Want to say “Today is a good day” in Chinese, but can’t read Han characters? Click “Show romanization” to read the text written phonetically in English. Right now, this works for all non-Roman languages except for Hebrew, Arabic and Persian.
Text-to-speech: When translating into English, you can now also hear translations in spoken form by clicking the Speaker Icon.
– Giving a voice to more languages on Google Translate [May 11, 2010]:
One of the popular features of Google Translate is the ability to hear translations spoken out loud (”text-to-speech”) by clicking the speaker icon beside some translations, like the one below.
We rolled this feature out for English and Haitian Creole translations a few months ago and added French, Italian, German, Hindi and Spanish a couple of weeks ago. Now we’re bringing text-to-speech to even more languages with the open source speech synthesizer, eSpeak.
By integrating eSpeak we’re adding text-to-speech functionality for Afrikaans, Albanian, Catalan, Chinese (Mandarin), Croatian, Czech, Danish, Dutch, Finnish, Greek, Hungarian, Icelandic, Indonesian, Latvian, Macedonian, Norwegian, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian, Russian, Serbian, Slovak, Swahili, Swedish, Turkish, Vietnamese and Welsh.
– Five more languages on translate.google.com [May 13, 2010]: “In 2009, we announced the addition of our first “alpha” language, Persian, on Google Translate. Today, we are excited to add five more alpha languages: Azerbaijani, Armenian, Basque, Urdu and Georgian — bringing the total number of languages on Google Translate to 57.”
– Poetic Machine Translation [Oct 5, 2010]: “A Statistical Machine Translation system, like Google Translate, typically performs translations by searching through a multitude of possible translations, guided by a statistical model of accuracy. However, to translate poetry, we not only considered translation accuracy, but meter and rhyming schemes as well. In our paper we describe in more detail how we altered our translation model, but in general we chose to sacrifice a little of the translation’s accuracy to get the poetic form right.”
– Franz Josef Och site
– Google Translate blog
– Google Technology RoundTable: Human Language Technology [Aug 21, 2008]
Human language technology experts at Google, Franz Josef Och and Mike Cohen discuss their exciting research in machine translation and speech technology with Alfred Spector, Google VP of Research and Special Initiatives.
Acer’s decision of restructuring: a clear sign of accepting the inevitable disintegration of the old PC (Wintel) ecosystem and the need for joining one of the new ecosystems under formation
Acer’s latest decision is also based on the so called Stan’s Smiling Curve — see much below — which was used already twice for understanding the restructuring needs in times of radical changes in the industry. This is the reason why product value, associated R&D and focusing on telecom channels (= more effective distribution, marketing and sales/aftersales) are emphasized along with consumer oriented products:
Follow-Up (Aug 2, 2011):
– Acer & Asus: Compensating lower PC sales by tablet PC push [March 29, 2011 with comprehensive update on Aug 2, 2011] which is showing serious technical and market problems with the original version of Honeycomb
Update: Global PC Shipments Dip 3.2% in Q1: IDC [April 29]
Although the forecast for the quarter was already conservative–IDC expected a mere 1.5% growth in shipments–a steady but still cautious business mentality and waning consumer enthusiasm persisted. A spike in fuel and commodity prices and the disruptions in Japan added to the mix, further dampening a market struggling to maintain momentum, the major international market research firm said.
Despite promising economic sentiments, mature regions appear to be more focused on necessary replacements as a relative dearth of compelling reasons were present to buy secondary PCs. Emerging markets fared better due to lower saturation rates, but also slowed somewhat with Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) region (APEJ) slowing to a 5.6% growth and China continuing to cool off after a momentous 2010.
Taiwan-based Acer was affected by continued turbulence in Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region, its biggest market. Moreover, the vendor is stilling feeling the pullback in the Mini Notebook (netbook) and consumer space, while its upcoming tablet PCs have yet to fill in the void. In the U.S., Acer also ceded its place to a surging Apple in the major market.
Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, Q1` 20111 (Preliminary)
(Units Shipments are in thousands)Rank Vendor Q1`11 Shipments Market Share Q11`0 Shipments Market Share YoY
Growth1 HP 15,191 18.9% 15,624 18.8% -2.8% 2 Dell 10,284 12.8% 10,469 12.6% -1.8% 3 Acer Group 9,039 11.2% 10,733 12.9% -15.8% 4 Lenovo 8,172 10.1% 7,028 8.4% 16.3% 5 Toshiba 4,809 6.0% 4,634 5.6% 3.8% Others 33,062 41.0% 34,712 41.7% -4.8% All Vendors 80,557 100.0% 83,200 100.0% -3.2% Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, April 13, 2011
Worth to read along with this: Gartner: media tablets are the new segment next to mobile PCs and desktops, as well as web- and app-capable mobile phones [April 16, 2011]
Update: Acer appoints new president, adjusts corporate organization [April 20, 2011]
Acer on April 19 announced the appointment of Jim Wong, originally corporate senior vice president and IT Products Group president, as new corporate president effective immediately. The company has also separated its IT product global operations into two independent entities, Touch Business Group (Touch BG) and PC Global Operations (PCGO).
Touch BG consists of the original tablet PC and smartphone teams and is led by the new corporate president Jim Wong, while PCGO was originally the main PC product team and is led by president Campbell Kan, former vice president for smart hand-held business unit.
Acer has also set up three functional offices, Chief Marketing Office responsible for brand positioning and marketing strategies, Chief Technology Office for mid- to long-term business planning and integration of technologies, and Operation Analysis Office for studying and analyzing company business models and financial affairs.
In addition, Acer forecasts that its PC shipments in the second quarter of 2011 will decrease 10% on quarter mainly due to the impact of the corporate reorganization, inventory adjustments in main markets, and off-season effects.
Update: Acer changes business strategy from pushing volume to value, says chairman [April 8, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Acer, in the future, will no longer push only shipment volumes, but will spend more time seeking product value and developing products that consumers need. To accomplish this, Acer will be seeking more R&D talent in the future, Wang noted.
…
Wang pointed out that a revolution is already in progress in the IT industry and Acer’s change in strategy is a must and the revolution will not only appear in the smartphone and the tablet PC industries. Wang used examples and noted that Microsoft’s Windows 8 operating system for 2012 will add support for ARM-based system-on-chip (SoC) platforms, and the software giant’s new move will completely change notebook and netbook’s designs in the future as future notebooks and netbooks will also feature instant boot capability, and Acer must catch up with all these opportunities.
In addition, Acer will also put more focus on developing technologies such as Clear Fi, touchscreen and software user interfaces, as well as working deeply into telecom channels.
Update: Acer increases Iconia tablet PC orders for April [April 12, 2011]
Taiwan-based PC brand vendor Acer has increased its April tablet PC orders to 500,000-800,000 units, aiming to compete against Motorola, RIM and Hewlett-Packard’s (HP’s) tablet PCs, according to sources from upstream component makers.
The sources pointed out that the 10-inch model is assembled by Compal Electronics with 7-inch model handled by Quanta Computer. Although Acer only placed a small amount of tablet PC orders in March, the company has significantly raised its orders in April with volume for 10-inch models reaching 400,000-600,000 units.
As US-based telecom carrier AT&T is already set to start selling Acer’s Iconia Tab A501, if Acer can also cut into Verizon’s channel, the company is expected to be able to challenge Motorola’s Xoom tablet PC. Acer internally forecasts to ship 5-7 million tablet PCs in 2011.
Acer has also recently started reducing its shipment proportion for netbooks and is aiming to have its tablet PC products cover the gap.
Acer also released a new company logo to show that the company is heading into a new direction and is aiming to create a new brand value.
Update: Acer changes its logo, hopes to start afresh [April 11, 2011]

Acer to initiate corporate restructuring, chairman says [April 1, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
The emergence of tablet PCs has made a strong impact on sales of consumer notebooks and netbooks, making Acer’s strategy ineffective, and therefore Acer has to initiate a corporate restructuring, Acer chairman JT Wang has said.
Wang, who has assumed the post of CEO at Acer after former CEO Gianfranco Lanci resigned on March 31, said Acer will appoint a global president at the end of April.
Wang said as CEO he will be responsible for finance, personnel and global marketing, while the president will supervise product design, product innovation, procurement and logistics services.
Acer’s president for Europe Walter Deppler, president for North America, Emmanuel Fromont, president for China, Oliver Ahrens and chief marketing officer Gianpiero Morbello are all expected to stay at their current posts, Wang said.
Wang also insisted that it is still not necessary for Acer to lower its shipment target for tablet PCs at the moment. Acer aims to ship 5-7 million tablet PCs in 2011.
See as well the following trend-tracking posts of mine. Without reading of them this trend-tracking post of “further information collection” could not be complete:
– Acer & Asus: Compensating lower PC sales by tablet PC push [March 29, 2011]
– Changing purchasing attitudes for consumer computing are leading to a new ICT paradigm [Jan 5, 2011]
– ASUS, China Mobile and Marvell join hands in the OPhone ecosystem effort for “Blue Ocean” dominance [March 8, 2011]
– Be aware of ZTE et al. and white-box (Shanzhai) vendors: Wake up call now for Nokia, soon for Microsoft, Intel, RIM and even Apple! [Feb 21, 2011]
– Marvell to capitalize on BRIC market with the Moby tablet [Feb 3, 2011]
‘Mutant viruses’ sicken Acer, Asustek [March 29, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Sales of their own-branded computers have taken a big hit and now the companies are scaling back unit volume projections for the first quarter. In fact, growth will be negative as these two netbook pioneers struggle to regain their footing in the face of the iPad onslaught.
Back in September, Stan Shih called Apple products “mutant viruses,” telling the Asian technorati gathered to hear his speech that his company, Acer, and other Asian PC boxen makers would eventually overcome the threat posed by the iPad, iPhone and insurgent Mac. However, that pronouncement was followed in October by the news that Apple Mac unit volume surpassed Acer in the US.
Talk of the day — Acer needs reengineering: founder [March 30, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Acer Inc., the world’s second-largest computer vendor, needs reengineering and repositioning because its previous winning formula is not effective any more, its founder Stan Shih said Tuesday.
Shih, who no longer manages the Taiwan-based multinational computer group but still controls a huge stake in the company, made the suggestion on the sidelines of a cultural seminar.
His advice came after Acer unexpectedly lowered its PC sales estimate for the first quarter of this year last Friday and gave a conservative forecast for its Q2 business prospects.
Acer revised its forecast on Q1 PC sales downward, from an annual increase of 3 percent to an annual decline of 10 percent, citing weaker demand in western Europe and the United States.
The following are excerpts from the local [Taiwanese] media coverage of Shih’s remarks:
Economic Daily News:
Shih acknowledged that smartphones and tablets have had a significant impact on the personal computer industry.
He expressed the view that Apple’s products, such as iPhone and iPad, have brought new visions and new concepts to the technology industry.
“The prevalence of smartphones and tablets has made Acer’s original target of expanding its global PC market share obsolete, ” Shih said. “It’s no longer meaningful for Acer to pursue growth in sales volume. Acer should from now on focus upgrading its profit margins.”
Because of changing business environment, Acer underwent a major re-engineering almost once every 10 years.
In 1992, Acer reshaped its increasingly bloated organization under a lean and mean strategy. During the period, Shih came up with a “smiling curve theory” that stressed the importance of branding and research and development.Its second reengineering effort came in 2000 when the company incurred huge losses because its contract production often hindered its branding efforts. Acer decided that year to spin off its contract manufacturing business while focusing on selling its brand-named PCs.
Over the past decade, Acer has emerged as the world’s second largest PC brand.
Now the company is at a crossroad again. Shih said Acer has only lowered its business forecast and has not incurred any losses.
“But its misforecast indicates that the PC market is undergoing substantial changes, ” Shih said. “The unexpected slow sales in Q1 should serve as a wake-up call. It’s time for Acer to undergo its third wave of re-engineering and re-positioning.”
Noting that Apple not only sells products but also sell services and that HP has announced its decision to install its Web OS system in its PCs, Shih said Acer should come up with new strategies to sustain its growth. (March 30, 2011).
Commercial Times:
Shih said it’s all too common for a business corporation to hit snags or face challenges.
“What counts most is change and re-engineer,” Shih said.
For Acer, he noted, the most urgent now is re-positioning and reshaping in order to achieve a breakthrough.
Shih suggested that Acer maintain transparency in its reengineering efforts and strengthen communications with the business community to bridge gaps in market expectations.
Thanks to Apple’s contributions, new business models have emerged, with close cooperation between smartphone and telecommunciation service operators, Shih said.
In the face of this new market trend, Acer should act quick and change fast, he stressed. (March 30, 2011).
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Stan’s Smiling Curve
Smiling (Smile) Curve theory was invented by Stan Shih Ex CEO of Acer Computer in his 1992 book. The theory gained its popularity due to the fact it outlines the industrial structure of Taiwan, specifically the electronic industry at the time. The smile curve’s left hand side includes the technology, patent, research and development. The middle section includes assembly, manufacturing. On the right hand of the curve is marketing distribution and after service. The x-axis is showing the value chain (stage of production) from the concept to end user. The y-axis is for the value-added.
Based on this vision, Acer has adopted a business strategy to recreate itself from a manufacturer into a company that focuses on global marketing of brand-name PC-related products and services. Meanwhile, Acer also has invested aggressively in R&D to develop innovative technology. The concept later became widely cited to describe the distribution of value-adding potentials in various industries to justify business strategies aimed at higher value-adding activities.
More information on that in terms of recent (2007) circumstances see: The Knowledge Based Economy [April 25, 2007]:
Michael Nystrom: … manufacturing does indeed appear to be the lowest value input. This is why, the capitalists say, the world has evolved to the point that it has. “We think, they sweat,” they say. We of course, are the Americans and they are the sweating Asians.
Clever, isn’t it? But I have a nagging feeling there is something wrong with the theory, though I’m not exactly sure what. Perhaps I’m too rooted in the old economy, unable yet to adjust to the idea of the “knowledge economy.” But I have a feeling there is something more.
What is wrong, if anything, with the model? Or am I just a dinosaur?
Mike Shedlock / Mish: … there is nothing wrong with that chart. One can clearly look at China, India, and SE Asia in general and see without a doubt what is happening. And in spite of enormous increases in [the price of] raw materials, the prices of finished goods have barely risen.
Are cars, boats, pottery, computers, monitors, printers, light fixtures, etc keeping up with the prices of raw materials that make them? Clearly the answer is no. The curve reflects what is happening. In fact, the curve represents additional profit that can be had by shifting manufacturing to low cost providers. That is in essence the very foundation of global wage arbitrage. However, You are missing several key points.
Key Points
- Global wage arbitrage is not just about manufacturing
- The US has no intrinsic brainpower advantage
- The smile curve is flattening
… [worth to read in entirety]
Comments by Stan Shih at Year 2004 (from Me Too Is Not My Style, Update Edition* [August 8, 2010]):
[to the Chapter 3: A Lesson in Intellectual Property]
According to Stan’s Smiling Curve, the research/development innovation in the intellectual properties (IP) portion is the key of future industrial and corporate competitiveness, in the knowledge-based economics. The IP development should be based on the market need; otherwise it will be un-marketable technologies which are the mistakes many entrepreneurs and IP owners often make. In the new economy, creating a new business model is also a kind of an IP development. Again, it has to be profitable to be sustainable; if not, it will be just self-indulgence. Acer has set up Acer Value Lab to master the market need and develop the technologies and products, from the viewpoints of the users. (Please refer to Chapter 7 “The Smiling Curve for a New Century” in “Millennium Transformation—Change Management of New Acer”.)
[to the Chapter 9: Paradigm Shift in the Information Technology Industry]
I proposed the theory of “Stan’s Smiling Curve” to illustrate the new tendency in 1992, at which time the information technology industries had started to dis-integrate into up-, mid-, and down-streams. This was
different from the integrated PC business by those earlier computer companies. After the onset of dis-integration, PC industries have gone through many important changes, including a complete outsourcing model, the merger of Fujitsu and Siemens, and HP merged Compaq. Recently, some investors propose that do not invest the PC companies except Dell and Apple Computer, both whose positioning are exceeding a PC company. During the process of this industrial change, Acer has successfully repositioned. We gradually expand the product lines and
enhance the IT service businesses, and have become an exceeding PC company. We were lucky to catch the earlier opportunity and have transformed into a branding and marketing service company.
[to the Chapter 11: “Go Game Strategy” and “Stan Smiling Curve”]
“Stan’s Smiling Curve” theory has been well-recognized internationally in a variety of industries. In addition to the IT industries, consumer-electronics, and software industry, the similar development has been seen in semiconductor, digital learning, and agricultural industries. All the industries and companies should go toward the both ends on “Stan’s Smiling Curve”. That is, to enhance the research and development, and marketing, so that the corporate value can be generated. I had also designed two value formulas: corporate value formula and brand value formula. (Please refer to Chapter 8 “Creating Brand Value” in “Millennium Transformation – Change Management of New Acer”.)
* original publication: Stan Shih, Me-Too Is Not My Style: Corporate visions, Strategies and Business Philosophies of the Acer Group, 1996; The Acer Foundation
Millennium Transformation – Change Management for New Acer [August 8, 2010]):
[from the Preface for the New Edition [Me Too Is Not My Style, Update Edition] Learn the Future from the Past:]
Then, I wrote the book “Millennium Transformation”, in which Acer’s highlights from 1996 to 2004 was recorded, following the first two decades of Acer described in this book. During the eight years illustrated in “Millennium Transformation”, Acer had gone through several significant transitions, especially the second re-engineering at the year end of 2000. The changes of background and decision processes of these transitions were more dramatic than that in the first re-engineering in 1992. After the 2nd re-engineering, Acer has successfully broke the growth limit and created another peak of business.
From: http://www.stanshares.com.tw/StanShares/portal/ebook/index.aspx
This is a Chinese based website [www.stanshares.com.tw ]. It is mainly about Mr. Stan Shih, the founder of Acer Group/ Chairman of iD SoftCapital Group, sharing his concept of management and philosophy of life.
It also includes 2 English books by Mr. Stan Shih – “Me Too Is Not My Style” and “Millennium Transformation – Change Management for New Acer“. If you are interested, you are welcomed to read it on-line or download the books for free.
[all his books: http://www.stanshares.com.tw/stanshares/portal/book/index.aspx]
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CEO and President Gianfranco Lanci’s resignation:
Acer trade volume erupts after pep talk by founder [March 31, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Trade volume for shares of Acer Inc. erupted yesterday after its founder gave a pep talk, urging that the company should not focus on being No. 1 so much as it should on increasing profitability, in the midst of fierce competition from smart phone and tablet PC makers.
Acer last Friday shocked the PC industry by slashing its sales forecast for Q1 from an increase of 3 percent year-on-year to a decline of 10 percent. The company’s stock fell to its daily limit both on Monday and Tuesday, with foreign institutional investors selling a total of 6,273 units on Tuesday alone. Each stock unit is 1,000 shares of that stock.
Investment trust firms pretty much followed in foreign investors’ footsteps, while securities firms were on the buy side both on Monday and Tuesday.
What was seen as motivational talk by ever so iconic Acer founder Stan Shih Tuesday put an end to the selling spree yesterday, as the shares closed with total trade volume of 148,000 units. The stock however closed down again, albeit by a much smaller margin of 3.8 percent, to NT$60.7, still above the critical NT$60 level. The TAIEX dropped nearly 50 to 8,646.31.
Tuesday, Shih, who still serves as a director on Acer’s board, urged the PC giant to undergo another restructuring effort to ward off competition from smart phone and tablet PC makers.
“We’re only slashing our sales forecast, not reporting a loss,” he said. “Yet the mere fact that we had to downgrade a number that we had had wholehearted confidence in suggests the kind of challenge we’re faced with.”
He pointed out that Acer undergoes a major restructure effort about every ten years. “Now is about the time,” Shih said.
He said Acer first has to abandon its “No. 1 in the market” mentality. Given diminishing profit margins that PC manufacturers are faced with, the correlation between No. 1 and profitability is no longer absolute, he said.
“Being No. 1 in the market is only a superficial victory, something that makes our faces look good,” he said. “Yet realistically, we could have lost more through an erosion of earnings and profitability.”
He said what Acer needs to do, as Apple has proved time and again, is to “sell products” as well as “sell service.” The business model in which a manufacturer purely makes hardware will no longer work, he said.
Acer must seek to change: founder [March 31, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Acer Inc founder Stan Shih on Tuesday (March 29) said that the the world’s second largest PC maker must “seek to change.” The company has repeatedly made inaccurately forecasts for its performance outlook, seriously disappointing shareholders and damaging the company’s image.
Shih told Taiwan PC maker’s management team that it was common for enterprises to encounter operating difficulties, though he was quick to add that Acer’s current problems may suggest its past formula for success has now become outdated.
Shih’s remarks are viewed by many in the industry as a sign that Acer will launch a third round of restructuring in the near future following similar moves in 1992 and 2000.
Acer’s latest inaccurate forecast was admitted on Friday (Mar. 25) when the company unexpectedly revised downward its revenue forecast for the first quarter. However, just a week earlier, senior Acer officials had assured foreign investors at a forum that their previous export growth prediction for the company for January to March remained unchanged.
The subsequent revision seemed to indicate Acer had failed to grasp the trend in a fast-changing world market.
Last year, the Acer founder also raised the idea of restructuring. However, his remarks this week were more direct and strident. “When a company is faced with problems and difficulties, it must make internal adjustments, change the old mode of thinking, establish new core competencies and look forward,” he said.
Shih said that when the broad circumstances are changing, companies must face up to the challenges and devise countermeasures. “This industry very obviously has entered into the era of mobile phones and telecommunications. Tablet computers and handsets have become the mainstream. I must say we should thank Apple for opening a way for everyone to follow.”
Looking back to the company’s 2000 reforms, a change which Shih said he had originally expected to take two to three years to push through. In fact, he said, it took only one year for the company to achieve its goals.
Shih attributed the latest gap between forecast and performance to a lack of good communication with the outside world. As for whether Acer will continue to pursue the target of becoming the world’s top 1 own brand PC maker, he said, “No. 1 is no longer that important, because even if you occupy the largest market share, it still would not guarantee high profits. So what is important is to look for change.”
Acer’s 1992 corporate reforms proved successful in part because the company acquired the laptop computer division of Texas Instruments and also partly because it recruited an outsider, Gianfranco Lanchi, as its general manager.
However, in the last two to three years many of Acer’s senior executives have retired, with the company bringing in larger numbers of foreign nationals to join its management team. This development has raised worries among employees that Acer has been following a policy of “de-Taiwanizing.”
In the last two trading days, Acer’s shares have dropped by the daily limit, causing the company’s market valuation to shrink by NT$26 billion (US$882 million).
Acer CEO and President Gianfranco Lanci resigns – With immediate effect [Acer press release, March 31, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Acer CEO and President Gianfranco Lanci has resigned from the company, with immediate effect. Acer Chairman J.T. Wang takes acting role in the interim. The company has commenced with the planning of organizational and operational adjustments for the sustainable future of Acer.
The resignation was approved at a meeting of Acer’s Board of Directors today, and the company has communicated internally with its worldwide employees.
On the company’s future development, Lanci held different views from a majority of the board members, and could not reach a consensus following several months’ of dialog. They placed different levels of importance on scale, growth, customer value creation, brand position enhancement, and on resource allocation and methods of implementation.
The change does not affect current operations which are functioning as normal. Acer’s strong management team of multi-nationals has been well-informed and is committed to overseeing and implementing the company strategies, as does the amicable company relations with industry partners persist. Acer will continue to push for globalization, follow its multi-brand and channel business model, develop competitive products and services, and foster closer relations with key vendors and channel partners.
Acer Chairman, J.T. Wang expresses, “The personal computer remains the core of our business. We have built up a strong foundation and will continue to expand within, especially in the commercial PC segment. In addition, we are stepping into the new mobile device market, where we will invest cautiously and aim to become one of the leading players.”
“In this new ICT industry,” continued Wang, “Acer needs a period of time for adjustment. With the spirit of entrepreneurship, we will face new challenges and look to the future with confidence.”
In his role as President and CEO, Lanci has contributed significantly toward Acer’s growth. The company expresses its true appreciation for Lanci’s efforts and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.
Some reports on that resignation:
– Acer CEO Lanci Quits After Clashing With Board; Wang Takes Over [Bloomberg BusinesWeek, March 31, 2011]:
The 56-year-old executive earned a civil engineering degree from the Politecnico of Turin, where he was born. He joined Texas Instruments Inc.’s Italian unit in 1981 and became country manager for the Portable Computers and Printers Division in Italy, the Middle East and Africa by age 37, according to Acer’s website. In 1997, he was named managing director of Acer Italy after Texas Instruments’ portable PC business merged with Acer.
Lanci, who enjoys reading and playing tennis, was promoted to president of the International Operations Business Group in 2003 after heading Acer’s operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, according to Acer.
Wang, born two months before Lanci, became chairman in 2008 after Lanci succeeded him as CEO. Wang has a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from National Taiwan University and an Executive Master of Business Administration degree from Taiwan’s National Cheng-Chi University.
– Acer CEO Lanci quits after boardroom bust up [MicroScope.co.uk, March 31, 2011] (emphasis is mine):
Acer has the lowest operating expense in the PC industry base and used strong relationships with the Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs) to offer price points that lured consumers in and underpinned its rise to the top.
However, consumer confidence and growing interest in tablet PCs resulted in an abrupt end to booming mainstream notebook sales, and highlighted Acer’s reliance on the segment, despite its efforts to diversify through acquisition.
…
Ranjit Atwal, principal analyst at Gartner, told MicroScope that Acer had made a good fist of becoming a major player in the PC space but the consumer boom was over and its efforts to build in the professional market were more muted.
“Fundamentally, Acer’s business model is predicated on maintaining volumes in consumer mobile PCs which allows them to maintain and increase margins. But consumers are now generally backing off buying traditional PCs,” he said.
Atwal said that Acer’s efforts in the professional mid-market, led by the Gateway brand in Europe, had not compensated for the drop in consumer demand.
“Given that the professional market is moving away from a box mentality – most vendors are trying to provide solutions – the whole sale is becoming more complicated in terms of how you get to the business customer,” he said.
– Acer Joins AMD In Not Having a CEO [Softpedia, March 31, 2011]:
Hearing that AMD, even after so much time, still doesn’t have a permanent head figure probably has consumers wondering, but it looks like Acer might just go through a similarly tumultuous period now that its own CEO resigned.
Consumers keeping track of happenings on the IT industry will most likely have learned of how Advanced Micro Devices has been bereft of a Chief Executive Officer for months now.
The previous one, Dirk Meyer, left the company about two months ago and actually came as a surprise.
Now, Acer has provided onlookers with a similar surprise, as CEO and President Gianfranco Lanci has submitted his resignation.
– Gianfranco Lanci Calls It Quits As Acer CEO [mocoNews.net, March 31, 2011] (emphasis is mine):
Has the impact of the iPad 2 claimed its first executive victim?
…
In November the company made a big splash showing off its newest mobile computing devices.
This was a departure from its traditional main line of business of making PCs, and the hybrid culture resulted in at least one curious product that, depending on who you asked, was either innovative or just plain odd: the Iconia (pictured), in which what appears to be a laptop on the outside unfolds to reveal a two-screened tablet on the inside.
But since November, things, as they say, have moved on, and new product launches from other Android players as well as Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) with its iPad 2 have clearly shaken up Acer.
J.T. Wang remaining at the helm:
2010 Time 100 selects Acer’s J.T. Wang as one of world’s most influential people [April 30, 2010]
CEO of Acer Group and also the chairman of Taipei Computer Association (TCA) was listed in number two spot under the Leaders category of the recently Time Magazine’s annual top 100 world’s most influential people. Top world’s leader and individuals including Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, US Pres. Barack Obama, former US Pres. Bill Clinton, Sarah Palin, Apple’s Steve Jobs, Oprah Winfrey, Lady Gaga and etc were listed.
J.T. Wang By Michael Schuman [Time Magazine Apr. 29, 2010] (emphasis is mine)
One of the great trends of the next decade will be the rise of Asian companies. Long known for efficiency and manufacturing prowess, they’re now becoming more adept at the “soft” elements of business — marketing, design, branding and strategy — and that’s making them fiercer competitors.
J.T. Wang, 55, CEO of the Taiwanese PC maker Acer Group, is a harbinger of the future. When Wang became top executive in 2005, it ranked fifth in the global PC market. Acer has since stormed up the charts to No. 2, with more than 14% of the market, ahead of Dell and behind only HP.
Wang, who has worked at Acer for 29 years, is winning out with his knack for tapping into consumer trends — jumping headfirst, for example, into the craze for netbooks. “We don’t judge,” Wang once said. “We do what the customer really wants.”
Acer’s old directional statements back in November, 2010:
– Acer Aims for 15% Revenue Growth in 2011 [Nov 2, 2010] (emphasis is mine)
Optimistic about PC market prospects, the Taiwan-based Acer Inc., now the world`s second largest PC vendor now, aims to achieve a 15% sales revenue growth in 2011, with notebook PC shipment to exceed 50 million units, according to the firm`s chairman J.T. Wang. This has showed Wang`s ambition to unseat HP in the market.
…
Wang also shows his optimism about PC market outlooks in 2011, indicating that prices of notebook PCs in the global market will remain steady throughout the year. The market situation will also help to stabilize the ASP (average selling price) of its products in the year.
Not worried about Apple`s iPad tablets gradually replacing netbook PCs in sales, Wang also commented on the rise of Apple`s iPad tablets, saying that the phenomenon has brought about positive momentum in the global PC market, and that scale of the segment will continue growing in 2011. Worth mentioning is that Acer will accelerate its foray into the segment, planning to release its newest tablet PC running Microsoft`s operating system this month. The firm`s Android-based tablet is slated for debut next year.
To adapt his firm to an ever-changing market, Wang stated that each of Acer`s devices will be installed with the software “Acer Clear.fi” starting in the first quarter of next year, which will satisfy its customers with better hardware integration so as to help enhance value of its products.
Acer`s CEO Gianfranco Lanci added that the firm will step up exploring emerging markets as Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, etc. [i.e. BRIC] Hopefully, the firm will take over HP`s leading position in the global market for notebook PCs next year.
– Acer to Set Up 2nd Chinese Headquarters in Chongqing [Nov 4, 2010] (emphasis is mine)
Acer will also rally its contract manufacturers, including Compal and Wistron, and supply-chain member firms to establish factories in the city, thereby forming a complete manufacturing clustering. The company is scheduled to sign a contract with Chongqing City government for the project in December.
…
The Chongqing headquarters will be essential for Acer to expand its presence in the Chinese market, in order to become the world`s leading PC brand. Gianfranco Lanci, chief executive officer of Acer, reported that the company has targeted raising the share of the Chinese market in its total revenue to 20% by 2013, up from 7% now.
– Acer Steps Up Market Push in Mainland China [March 23, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Acer Inc. is stepping up market push in mainland China by building partnership with the mainland`s retailers.
Almost one month after signing a pact to provide electronics retail chain Suning Corp. with US$500 million worth of computers in two years, Acer recently licensed online electronics retail chain 360buy.com to offer after-sales service in the mainland for it.
It`s the first ever after-sales service licensing that Acer has signed with a mainland Chinese retailer, showing the company`s determination to boost sales in the mainland. 360buy.com raked in revenue of RMB10 billion (US$1.5 billion at US$1:RMB6.5) in 2010, up 100% from 2009.
Last year, Acer signed a contract to provide the online retailer with RMB100 million (US$15 million) worth of notebook computers.
When a trade mission composed of representatives from heavyweight enterprises in Nanjing visited Taiwan in February, Acer signed an agreement to supply US$500 million worth of computing products to the Nanjing-based Suning.
Acer Chairman J.T. Wang pointed out that his company`s sales through Suning spiked seven folds in the second half last year from the same period of a year earlier. The retailer is operating 1,400 shops in the mainland. Wang estimated Acer`s sales through the chain to further rise three folds this year.
Acer has projected its sales in the mainland at US$2.5 billion for the year, surging 70% from last year. In the meantime, the company`s market share in the mainland is estimated to rise to 13-15%, up from current 10%.
Acer`s sales in the West have slumped because of maturity of the markets there, prompting the company to depend on mainland China for huge growth in the years to come.
Thus the originally planned BRIC focus, especially the mainland China part has been unable to sustain Acer’s old strategy of growth!
Regarding what one of the options for restructuring could be:
– Should Acer consider a Nokia type deal with Microsoft – but for laptops? [March 30, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
If the agreement between Nokia and Microsoft works out in the end it is a big win for both companies, and the consumer. Microsoft gets a dedicated partner willing to do whatever it can to promote Windows Phone 7 and Nokia gets the inside track to the Windows Phone 7 OS.
Now, I have said here before that I believe that Microsoft should be taking a strong role in the hardware end of the business that its Windows platform runs on. We have that in a limited scope with the Microsoft Signature brand laptops and desktops available in the Microsoft Stores.
In this aspect the consumer is a big winner because they know that they are getting a computer that has been optimized to run the Windows operating system at its best. No more of the crap ladened computer with sub-optimal components in pretty boring shells.
Today Stan Shih, Founder of Acer, said at an event in Taipei that the company needed to rethink its philosophy when it comes to being the world’s biggest PC vendor and focus on better and more distinguishable products.
If this indeed the case maybe Stan and Steve should sit down together and see if they can help each other out in the same fashion that Nokia is working with Microsoft.
There is no doubt that Acer build some really good hardware but by forging an alliance with Microsoft they could possibly gain some freedom to come up with some innovative and cool shells for their good hardware.
From Microsoft’s side I am sure that a special deal could be offered up in regards to its software whether it be consumer or enterprise.
This doesn’t even bring up the fact that Acer is getting into the mobile market as a handset maker, although this might be off the table given the Nokia deal.
This is pure speculation and will likely never happen but an interesting idea all the same.
Deeper background:
This is what happens when the essential creator of the PC (Wintel) ecosystem, Microsoft Corporation is repeatedly failing to deliver the next great client offering despite its numerous claims in the row from as far back as January 2010.
See what happened in that regard:
– HP’s Windows 7 Slate Device Revealed by Steve Ballmer [Techmeme, Jan 6 – Jan 10, 2010]
– Windows slates in the coming months? Not much seen yet [this trend-tracking blog, July 13 – Oct 9, 2010]
This is what happens when:
– things are continuing with Microsoft stance of just talking about Windows slates but no products on the horizon plus Windows Phone 7 will come out only in November
– while at the same time Apple and Google/Android are creating a very fast growing, new consumer market for computer powered client devices, and as a consequence:
1. Goldman downgrades Microsoft, makes case for major overhaul [Oct 3, 2010] along with which a radical proposal was put forward:
A break-up of the consumer businesses could potentially unlock hidden value, or more discipline on cost could turn the businesses into contributors to profitability and shareholder value. For example, the Xbox products could be an appealing stand-alone entity, given the historical success of the Xbox and the products’ brand strength, and the business could show unlocked value with forced cost discipline compared to as a piece of Microsoft. To date the company’s comments suggest that management still sees significant value in combining the consumer and enterprise efforts, but we view a foot in both camps as preventing a successful focus on one strategy, a la Oracle in the enterprise or Apple for consumers.
2. And still in A Mastermind Interview With Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft [Oct 21, 2010, see the video record which is clickable from there] on the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo Orlando 2010 Ballmer said (when confronted by that opinion) that Windows is Microsoft’s biggest consumer product and continued:
When people say nutty things like Goldman you ask what part of Windows would you like to spin out? There is no rationale. The reuse of technology across the consumer and enterprise is the way forward.
3. Moreover he argued for his position that Linux and Android is reused for both markets with the same code base—just like Windows. Then he put forward his best argument against the idea that Microsoft should spin out a consumer business:
… is next to crazy. It’s next to the craziest discussion I’ve ever had. Nobody wants a different UI per device. … People want the same thing at work they wanted at their home. …
… [the fact that there were] 200 million plus Windows consumer PCs in the last year alone says there is a lot of people are thinking in that direction, across the world. … I know we have competitive challenge, but part of the challenge is people walk in [to their IT department] with their iPad saying I want it at work. They do want the same things at work that they have at home, whether that comes from us or from our competition. … People will ask for things at work that they love, that they buy with their own money .
4. While answering the 4th part of Gartner 630 (6 short anwers to simple questions in 30 seconds max) about the coolest product introduced or to be introduced in 2010 and indicating the Xbox Kinect coming in November he is getting teased by a quick question whether that will be the consumer version or the enterprise version to which he responds with (turning like an artist away from the interviewers and towards the audience):
Let me help these guys! What they don’t understand: cool starts at home.
This is what happens when despite of this clear understanding by Microsoft and its CEO that recognition was starting to be delevired ways too late as reported in detail by my other trend tracking posts:
– ASUS Eee Slate based Windows marketing from Microsoft [March 21, 2011]
– CES 2011 presence with Microsoft moving to SoC & screen level slot management that is not understood by analysts/observers at all [Jan 7, 2011]
while still unanswered questions remain:
– How Microsoft is going to solve the problem of assuring HTML5 et al platform stability for web developers? See more information.
– Microsoft’s upcoming CES 2011 announcement of a Windows slate overlay software for touch-first HTML5 applications could have true competitive impact on the overall tablet (iPad etc.) market, see more information. <<< this had not been delivered there (see CES 2011 presence with Microsoft … )
– Microsoft has a new overall platform strategy based on evolving HTML 5, and an enhanced one for its own Windows client devices, see more information.<<< this had not been delivered yet (see CES 2011 presence with Microsoft … )
and generally it is still true that:
– Microsoft and HTML 5: new platform? — leading compliance?
although the new platform? question goes back to Microsoft going multiplatform? [Sept 17, 2010].
ASUS, China Mobile and Marvell join hands in the OPhone ecosystem effort for “Blue Ocean” dominance
Follow-up: First real chances for Marvell on the tablet and smartphone fronts [Aug 21 – Sept 25, 2011]
Information about China Mobile’s related efforts on this blog:
– OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1 [July 5 — Dec 13, 2010]
– 3.9G TD-LTE rollout in 2012 with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G? [July 19 — Dec 14, 2010]
– Could China close the gap in mobile Internet? It should! [July 21 — Oct 21, 2010]
– IMT-Advanced (4G) for the next-generations of interactive mobile services, China is triumphant [Oct 24 — Nov 24, 2010]
– Cloud Computing Strategy for Digital China: Taiwan is leading the way except IOT [Nov 8 — Dec 30, 2010]
– Marvell beaten by Chinese chipmakers in sub 1,000 yuan handset procurement tender of China Mobile [Nov 15, 2010]
Follow-up: High expectations on Marvell’s opportunities with China Mobile [May 28, 2011]
Marvell and ASUS Team Up to Enable Mass Market Availability of TD-SCDMA Smartphones [Marvell press release, Feb 23, 2011] (emphasis is mine):
Marvell … today announced that ASUS has chosen Marvell as a strategic partner to launch a new series of TD-SCDMA (Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access) smartphones in China. ASUS‘ new T10 and T20 series smartphones are powered by Marvell(R) PXA920 platform, the first commercially available single-chip solution which supports China Mobile’s latest version of OPhone OMS system. … delivers gigahertz speed, dynamic multimedia for mobile TV, live video, gaming and many exciting new applications, all to be unified by Marvell’s beautiful and easy-to-use Kinoma(R) software experience.
In fact there were additional three devices, T25, T60 and T Pad, as well. See the following Forbes blog article (and even more below, or a very detailed event report with plenty of photos in Chinese, or look at an English translation by Google):
Asus Brings Five Android [rather OPhone OMS, see later] Devices To China In Bid For Billions Of New Customers [Feb 23, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
On Thursday afternoon in Beijing, Asus plans to announce a wide-ranging partnership with China Mobile that will make four Asus smartphones and one tablet available to the carrier’s millions of customers.
The deal is the cornerstone of Asus’ newest strategy to boost its mobile devices business. Though Asus is widely known for its computer parts, laptops and netbooks, it remains a bit player in the global cellphone and smartphone markets.
The company hopes a tie-up with China Mobile, which is both China’s largest wireless operator and the world’s biggest carrier by subscribers, will raise its mobile profile. “China will be our biggest mobile market,” said Benson Lin, Asus’ head of mobile devices, in an interview. “China is very important to our future.”
The partnership will be something of a gamble for Asus. China Mobile, like all Chinese carriers, uses a unique technology standard (TD-SCDMA) for its 3G cellular network. That means the phones Asus is providing to China Mobile — known as T10, T20, T25 and T60 — can’t be offered to any other operator.
Lin said the potential is worth the risk. He declined to share specific sales goals, but noted that China Mobile currently has nearly 590 million subscribers. Capturing 10% or even just 5% of that audience is “still a huge number,” he said.
Though all handset makers are interested in China, many are waiting for the country to upgrade its networks to the 4G technology LTE, said Lin. Asus believes it will benefit from forging a relationship with China Mobile now, when other phone vendors “aren’t paying attention,” added Lin. Europe is currently Asus’ largest mobile market, but Asus anticipates China will replace it soon.
The opportunity has pushed Asus to customize its “T” series of phones to Chinese tastes. Instead of automatically connecting to Google for browsing, the devices will link to the popular Chinese search engine Baidu. And instead of Facebook, they will access the Chinese social network RenRen.
…
All of the T phones run on the 2.0 version of China Mobile’s Ophone operating system, which is a variant of Google’s mobile platform, Android [not a variant since it has a Linux core and another user interface, as the most different aspects, but compatible with Android through source code reuse – see much below]. They also utilize special processors from California-based chipmaker Marvell. The design, which combines a CPU and modem on a single chip, is more affordable, efficient and compact than systems that use two chips, said Lin.
…
Developing the T phones took a year and a half of intense development at Asus’ Taipei campus, said Lin. Asus already has some phones in the Chinese market, but they are at a smaller carrier, China Unicom, which uses a different 3G standard called WCDMA.
Asustek to sell new line of smartphones through China Mobile [Feb 25, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Designed specially for the TD-SCDMA network in China, this chip [the PXA 920] will help bring down the cost, size, and power consumption of Chinese mobile devices, Asustek said in a statement by email.
“The information technology industry is turning from personal computing to cloud computing, and mobile phones are expected to become the most important cloud computing devices due to a wide range of applications,” Asustek chairman Jonney Shih said in the statement.
This type of industry collaboration [with China Mobile and Marvell] represents a shift in Asustek’s strategy for its smartphone line. Last October, Asustek, which had been selling smartphones under the Garmin-Asus brand since early 2009, said it would not introduce any more co-branded handset models.
Media reports estimate that China Mobile will purchase a total of 12.2 million TD-SCDMA-based handsets this year. This includes 4 million phones designed for entertainment use, 3.2 million multi-media smartphones, 3.2 million entry and mid-level smartphones, 1.5 million high-end connected devices, and 300,000 dual-network phones.
ASUS Four New TD-SCDMA Smartphones in China [Feb 27. 2011]
The ASUS T10, T20, T25 and T60 smartphones are powered by an 806MHz Marvell PXA920 processor and known as the world’s first single chip supporting TD-SCDMA. These new handsets are utilizing a Marvell Avastar 88W8787 chip for enabling Wi-Fi 802.11b/g/n, Bluetooth 3.0, and FM radio.
ASUS T10 smartphone has a 3.2-inch resistive touchscreen display with resolution of 320 x 480 (HVGA), 5-megapixel autofocus camera, front-facing camera for video calls, 512MB RAM, 512MB ROM, MicroSD card slot, and GPS.
The ASUS T20 similar the T10 handset, but it has 3.2-inch capacitive touchscreen display, TV tuner, CMMB and a more powerful battery. The Asus T25 comes with a 3.5-inch display, while the Asus T60 feature a 4-inch display.
Beside that, ASUS has also showcased the fifth handset that sports a 4-inch screen and support 4G TD-LTE network. All five smartphones are running on OPhone OS 2.0 which modified version of Android 2.1.
Marvell PXA920 Mass Market Smartphone Communication Platforms [Feb 17, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
The Marvell® PXA920 communication platform [also called Pantheon platform elsewhere, see the same Pantheon Platform Brief [Feb 17, 2011] as well] is an advanced, highly integrated 3G platform for multimedia-centric handsets. The PXA920 platform solutions incorporate the performance of Marvell’s mobile application processor with Marvell’s mature and proven 3.5G technology to provide low-cost Linux™ and Android™ handset platforms. The combination of Marvell’s advanced, high-performance, low-power application processor technology with Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access (TD-SCDMA)/High Speed Downlink and Uplink Packet Access (HSxPA)/Enhanced Data for GSM Environment (EDGE) communication support for next-generation cellular services enable breakthrough end-user experiences for imaging, HD video, music, games, and other popular handset applications.
With Marvell’s 3G technology, seamless wireless connectivity, application processing, and support for next generation cellular data services — the new PXA920-powered smartphones offer exceptional performance for browsing, instant live video, access to personal music, 3D gaming, and other popular handset applications at attractive price points. The PXA920 supports Android and other major mobile operating systems (OS).
Tri-core, Shared Memory Hardware Architecture
- Dedicated Modem and Applications Processor Cores
– Modem RISC Core: Marvell-designed ARM9 [their pre-Sheeva core] with packet processing accelerators and L1/L2 caches
– Modem DSP Core: Micro-Signal Architecture VLIW DSP core with L1/L2 caches
– Marvell [Applications] CPU Technology with ARMv5 core [Sheeva PJ1 core, which is the less performant synthesizable Sheeva core, see: Marvell ARMADA beats Qualcomm Snapdragon, NVIDIA Tegra and Samsung/Apple Hummingbird in the SoC market [again] [Sept 23, 2010]] supports up to 806 MHz operation (1130 DMIPS)- Shared External Memory Interface
…
Multimedia (video, 3D, audio, imaging, display)
- Video Playback 720p at 30 fps for H.264, WMV, MPEG-4, H.263; Video Capture D1 at 30 fps for H.264, WMV, MPEG-4, H.263
- 3D Graphics capability up to 10Mtriangle/s sustained and 20Mtriangle/s at 50% cull rate; Integrated 2D accelerator; Supports industry standard APIs.
- Marvell’s unique Audio Accelerator Subsystem offers low power audio playback via audio streaming
- Image Sensor support for primary and secondary smart image sensors with MIPI CSI-2 and parallel interfaces; Supports one MIPI-CSI2 serial interface
- LCD Controller supports parallel LCD displays over an 8/16/18-bit parallel smart panel interface or a 16/18/24bit parallel active matrix interface with sync signals; Primary/secondary display supports up to 4 simultaneous overlays with base + rotation scaling
All details about Marvell’s System-on-a-Chip (SoC) products and related strategies on this blog:
– Marvell ARMADA beats Qualcomm Snapdragon, NVIDIA Tegra and Samsung/Apple Hummingbird in the SoC market [again] [Sept 23, 2010 — Jan 17, 2011]
– Marvell ARMADA with sun readable and unbreakable Pixel Qi screen, and target [mass] manufacturing cost of $75 [Nov 4, 2010 — Jan 11, 2011]
– Marvell beaten by Chinese chipmakers in sub 1,000 yuan handset procurement tender of China Mobile [Nov 15, 2010]
– Marvell to capitalize on BRIC market with the Moby tablet [Feb 3, 2011]
– Kinoma is now the marvellous software owned by Marvell [Feb 15, 2011]
Blue Ocean Strategy [Wikipedia] (emphasis is mine, see also: What is Blue Ocean Strategy? Ten Key Points) ![]()
Blue Ocean Strategy is a business strategy book first published in 2005 and written by W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne of The Blue Ocean Strategy Institute at INSEAD. The book illustrates what the authors believe is the high growth and profits an organization can generate by creating new demand in an uncontested market space, or a “Blue Ocean”, than by competing head-to-head with other suppliers for known customers in an existing industry.
…
Unlike the “Red Ocean Strategy”, the conventional approach to business of beating competition derived from the military organization, the “Blue Ocean Strategy” tries to align innovation with utility, price and cost positions. The book mocks at the phenomena of conventional choice between product/service differentiation and lower cost, but rather suggests that both differentiation and lower costs are achievable simultaneously.
…
The authors criticize Michael Porter‘s idea that successful businesses are either low-cost providers or niche-players. Instead, they propose finding value that crosses conventional market segmentation and offering value and lower cost. Educator Charles W. L. Hill proposed this idea in 1988 and claimed that Porter’s model was flawed because differentiation can be a means for firms to achieve low cost. He proposed that a combination of differentiation and low cost might be necessary for firms to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage.
China Mobile 2010 Interim Results [Aug 19, 2010]
China Seeks Blue Ocean Dominance in Mobile Internet [Borqs company news, Jan 8, 2011]
China Mobile is striving for blue ocean dominance in China’s mobile Internet, during which, the launching of OPhone has become an important milestone. At a recent conference, Xi Guohua, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology of China, recognized the development and achievements of OPhone over the past two years since its birth, and expressed his wish for introducing OPhone to the global market.
… the mobile Internet is the largest breakthrough innovation in the communication industry in the 21st century. Those who have dominated any blue ocean of the industry will obtain the greatest benefits and lasting advantages. The strategy and development of the mobile Internet is essential to China if the country wants to win an appropriate industry position and take the power to reshuffle the communication industry.
…
With the help of iPhone, China Unicom has achieved great market performance in a very short time. However, the success of iPhone attributes more to the worship of Steve Jobs by millions of Apple fans than to the product innovation of Apple. … China Unicom has no say on iPhone and has not entered into any cooperation in technology during the cooperation with Apple. Therefore, in my view, a great risk may sneak in the success of iPhone since China Unicom rests its market on a single product from its partner. This is almost against the “Blue Ocean Strategy” of the mobile Internet industry.
Quite differently, China Mobile has avoided this dependency relation wisely. Based on Android, an international advanced operating system, it develops a technical platform within its control, further cooperates with upstream and downstream vendors, and creates a global system featuring complete industrial chain with its advantage of leading position in user base. That is the origin and development strategy of OPhone.
Talking about OPhone, Mr. Li Yue, new President & CEO of China Mobile, defines the company’s short-term strategy as “Giving priority and building quality in par with competitors”. This strategy reveals the correct attitude and understanding of China Mobile in terms of the development of OPhone: The exclusive support policy used in China before shall be thoroughly abandoned to help OPhone become a powerful weapon for controlling mobile Internet. With priority given, OPhone must be built with the same and even higher quality than its competitors. OPhone, from its version 1.0 to 2.0, is reported to undergo an extensive rage of development and test in the aspects of web data processing, multimedia performance, graphic/entertainment performance, and full-range service processing. For China Mobile, whether mobile Internet is the “last ocean” in the communication industry remains unclear. But I believe that we will never act before it’s too late.
Guided by the idea of “Giving priority and building quality in par with competitors”, OPhone is breaking the monopoly of iPhone in mobile Internet. Thus, our understanding of mobile Internet is experiencing slight changes. … mobile Internet users have no real “loyalty”: they have switched to iPhone from Blackberry today, and in future they may again switch from iPhone to OPhone. Sticking to the strategy proposed by President Li , OPhone will substitute for iPhone, and easier to use. Openness is the key to realize these two advantages. The first character “O” of “OPhone” does stand for “open”.
Other strategy related communication of relevance from the new CEO Li Yue:
– China Mobile chief not optimistic on industry’s growth [Nov 18, 2010] (emphasis is mine)
“There are some who think the increase in data usage will lead to growth, but I am not so optimistic,” Li said at the GSMA Mobile Asia Congress conference in Hong Kong yesterday.
The head of the world’s biggest phone carrier by market value said operators need to offer services that integrate well with the daily lives of consumers and businesses.
Li is adding services such as a search-engine for mobile phones and wireless payments to sustain growth at China Mobile, where he took over as chief executive this year.
– New China Mobile CEO builds bridges [Nov 17] (emphasis is mine)
There is a big opportunity for mobile operators to act as the bridge between different partners within the telecoms space and between the telco industry and others, and future revenue is to be found in penetrating the daily lives of mobile users, according to the new man at the helm of the world’s largest mobile operator, China Mobile.
“The mobile market will become the future channel for all walks of life,” said Li Yue, president and CEO of China Mobile, in his first international keynote speech since taking over at the telco in August.
…
He also highlighted some of China Mobile’s new services, including the mobile reading offering launched by the telco in May. The service has attracted more than 30 million users, and now has 6 million paying customers, Li explained.
In a bid to drive mobile data services forward, China Mobile has created a platform to engage with content creators and partners, including a pool of terminals and operating systems to aid applications developers. The company believes it can create a “win-win situation” in the mobile marketplace, where all members of the value chain benefit.
China Mobile aims to be “a bridge with all suppliers… and also a hub,” said Li, adding that the telco is working on signing up more partners.
“[The mobile Internet] is changing our traditional ecology as a mobile operator,” said Li, since it has changed the way end users collaborate. And changing customer behaviour provides “a lot of opportunities” for mobile providers, he said.
Those opportunities also include vertical markets.
“[We will] try whatever possible to penetrate into all kinds of industries,” said Li. “We are the connecting bridge with all kinds of industries.”
Related development: Government Drives New Chinese Search Engine [Feb 24, 2011]
Transcript by http://www.newsy.com
BY KELSEY WAANANEN
You’re watching multisource tech video news analysis from Newsy.
If you want something done right, you have to do it yourself. That seems to be China’s approach to the Internet. State-owned news agency Xinhua and state-owned China Mobile – China’s largest phone carrier – are teaming up to run Panguso – China’s newest – and government-approved search engine.This joint venture was announced last summer – right after Google decided to pull out of China because the search giant refused to continue censoring material. A CBS report details the repercussions of Google’s departure.
“Now when users in mainland China go on to use this site, like this, they’re automatically redirected to a different site based in Hong Kong, where Google isn’t legally required to censor itself. … China’s own filter, known as the ‘Great Firewall of China’ is still at work screening out sensitive material. In fact there are concerns that China could now clamp down even harder…”
And it certainly looks like they have. In terms of just what Panguso is leaving out, PC Magazine notes…
“According to Panguso, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Liu Xiaobo doesn’t exist. The same is true for the People’s University in Beijing, the first university founded after the 1949 communist revolution. “Dalai Lama” returns only tourism sites or state-sponsored criticism.”
But Panguso isn’t the only search engine on the market. Baidu, the current prominent search engine, accounts for more than 75 percent of web searches. But as TMCnet notes, Panguso offers a platform that Baidu doesn’t.
“…Baidu only controls about 36 percent of the mobile search market. By partnering with China Mobile, Xinhua may soon have a leg up on its competition in the mobile space.”
But a blogger for Download Squad suggests the Chinese government might have an ulterior motive — trying to get a slice of the search engine market.
“China already has a very strict policy on censoring politically-sensitive material, which Baidu strictly abides by — so unless it wants to further extend its control of information inside its borders, why would the Chinese government be interested in offering an alternative?”
According to Xinhua, the search engine will primarily focus on news for now. Xinhua will provide the news content — and China Mobile – the mobile subscriber base.
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Transcript by Newsy
ASUS Joins Hands with China Mobile to Launch ASUS TD Smart Phones [Borqs company news, Feb 28, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
On February 24th, ASUS held the ASUS TD Smart Phone Launch & Strategy Press Conference jointly with China Mobile and Marvell in Beijing. At this conference, the strategic cooperation of ASUS with China Mobile and Marvell has become the industry focus in addition to the launch of new TD smart phones and a TD slate.
Distinguished attendants at the conference include Mr. Wang Jianzhou, Chairman of China Mobile, Ms. Li Huidi, Chairman Assistant, Mr. Wu Wining, General Manager of Terminal Business Department of China Mobile, Mr. Huang Xiaoqing [also known as Bill Huang], President of the Research Institution of China Mobile, Mr. Shi Chongtang, ASUS President, Mr. Pat Chan, President & CEO of Borqs (accompanied by some other vice presidents of the company), and Ms. Dai Weili, President of Marvell.
Mr. Wang Jianzhou, Chairman of China Mobile, comments that China Mobile is very pleased to work with ASUS for the TD industry; since the emergence of this industry, terminal vendors have helped drive China’s TD industry. All terminals launched by ASUS at this time use OPhone OS and Marvell’s chips with significantly reduced costs, meeting the demand of China Mobile for low-price smart terminals. Also, Chairman Wang says that China Mobile will promote TD terminals this year, and purchase middle- and high-end TD terminals following its purchase of middle- and low-end TD terminals in 2010, bringing more choices to consumers.
At this conference, ASUS launches five new TD-SCDMA smart phones, including T10, T20, T25, T60 and TD-LTE, and one TD slate [TD Pad]. Based on the latest OPhone OS, these products adopt Marvell PXA 920 – the first TD-SCDMA single chip solution in the industry as core processor. TD smart phones with a single chip-based processor feature a slim body, high efficiency, and low price. By applying single chip solution into TD smart terminals, ASUS has maintained a benign partnership with Borqs and Marvell. This helps them meet the market demands for both quality but price. Furthermore, ASUS has become the first TD smart phone manufacturer applying single chip solutions in the world.
China Mobile has maintained a good share in China’s communication market and a great potential in OPhone OS system. This may be the main reason that ASUS has chosen to partner with it. As an open operating system developed by China Mobile, OPhone OS allows users to create personalized interfaces and install applications upon their demands, delivering users the operating experience of “My phone, my decisions”. By empowering mobile terminal products to deliver innovative, easy-to-use applications and enhanced experience, OPhone OS is a better choice for Chinese users.
The joining of ASUS has further expanded China’s TD camp, signifying a brand new beginning in the TD-SCDMA industry between the Mainland and Taiwan. This will promote and expand the development of the TD industry and OPhone-based terminals, also showcasing ASUS’s robust competitiveness in the Mainland market.
Borqs OPhone OS Roadmap [Feb 2011]
Greatest Shanzhai may prove to be an OS, not a handset [March 2, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
OMS is based on the Linux Kernel, and uses Android source code and integrated Java application framework to provide a complete software platform for application developers and users. … OMS is the first Android customization project where the developer (China Mobile and partners like Borqs) customized the entire user interface and applications of Android for a non-English language (in this case, Chinese).
… In a short span of time, China Mobile has been able to rope in the world’s leading mobile manufacturers to launch smartphones in China based on OPhone mobile OS. Motorola, LG, Philips, Dopod, Lenovo, ZTE, Samsung, and Sony are just a few of the distinguished makers of China Mobile’s OPhone range.
The extensive range of phones running the OPhone OS, based on the OMS platform, supercharged the 3G business and value added services of China Mobile. The OPhone OS, although it’s a variant of Android, doesn’t support Android Market; however, it has been tailored to include a built-in mobile app market called Mobile Market (MM), and other exclusive applications like Flying Letters, 139 Email, wireless music players and many more value-added services.
China Mobile is happy with the progress of the OPhone OS and unlike the rumors of it being shelved [see: China Mobile’s Ophone is Dead [Dec 16, 2010]], they have plans to provide new upgrades in 2011. Lu Zhihu, a deputy director at the China Mobile Research Institute, confirmed new updates at the 2010 International Mobile Internet Conference in Beijing. Version 2.5 will be out somewhere in February or March 2011 and version 3.0 later in 2011, with advanced features like voice recognition and better connectivity to mobile services.
China Mobile’s partner, Borqs, has already rolled out an international version of OPhone, which has been used by Dell and will run on AT&T. China Mobile has also established an industry alliance, the OPhone Innovation Alliance, to encourage developers and manufacturers to the OMS platform and OPhone OS. Rumor has it that China Mobile now want to show more convergence with Papa Android and they are planning to bring support for Android Market and many Android features into future releases to attract more users.
Important and quite illustrative information about the significant user interface improvements in 2.0 version:
Mobile OPhone2.0 design documents Exposure: compatible Android2.1_China Mobile China Mobile G3 / TD-SCDMA [June 4, 2010]
All other details about Ophone (OMS) on this blog:
OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1 [July 5 — Dec 13, 2010]
Asustek announces 4 TD-SCDMA smartphones [Digitimes, Feb 24, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
… and the Taiwan-based company noted that it will participate in telecom carrier China Mobile’s open bid for TD-SCDMA handsets in February with result announcement scheduled for April.
The smartphone launch marks Asustek’s first foray into the TD-SCDMA segment. The devices include the T10, T20, T25 and T60. At the press event, the company also showcased a TD-LTE smartphone, and indicated it plans to incorporate TD-SCDMA modules in its tablet PC for China Mobile networks.
Asustek’s TD-SCDMA line is based on the Marvell 920 chip. The T10 is Ophone OS 2.0 enabled.
AsusTek Announces New Handsets, Partnership with China Mobile [Feb 25, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Taiwan’s AsusTek Computer Inc announced a strategic partnership with China Mobile in Beijing on Feb. 24 while unveiling several customized products for the Chinese telecom operator.
At a press conference, AsusTek launched five smartphones and one tablet computer, using the Chinese time division-synchronous code division multiple access (TD-SCDMA) standard for mobile communication, with China Mobile chairman Wang Jianzhou attending the event.
This is the first time that Wang has taken part in such a product launch, which market observers viewed as a move by China Mobile to show the importance of its cooperation with AsusTek.
Wang’s presence was also seen as a positive sign for the Taiwan company, which made a bid with three of its models — the T20, T25 and T60 — in response to China Mobile’s announcement on Feb. 23 that it wanted to place orders for 12.2 million smartphones.
While China Mobile is not expected to announce its decision on suppliers until April, Wang said that the company plans to purchase more high-end smartphones to offer better options to its customers using third-generation (3G) mobile services.
Meanwhile, Benson Lin, general manager of AsusTek’s hand-held devices business, said that the company’s T-10 smartphone will make its debut on the market in March.
China Mobile to procure over 10 million TD-SCDMA handsets [March 2, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
China Mobile will announce suppliers in the second quarter, with large shipments slated for the second half of 2011, the sources indicated.
China Mobile had previously placed more emphasis on low-end smartphones since international handset vendors lacked higher end devices supporting the TD-SCDMA platform. Smartphones represent less than 20% of China Mobile’s revenues versus 40% for China Unicom and more than 20% for China Telecom, according to the sources.
Since China Mobile plans to procure higher-end TD-SCDMA handsets this time, both international and China-based vendors will see orders, unlike last round of procurement when China-based companies dominated the mainstream segment.
…
Both Taiwan’s HTC and Asustek Computer have already formed strategic alliances with China Mobile, the makers said, adding that the two companies should receive orders as long as their pricing and specifications match the procurement criteria.
Marvell Technology Group’s CEO [dr. Sehat Sutardja] Discusses Q4 2011 Results – Earnings Call Transcript [Seeking Alpha, March 3, 2011] (emphasis is mine):
Last year, we introduced the PXA920 [see: Marvell Drives $99 Smartphones to Market With New Pantheon Platform [Feb 12, 2010] and Marvell Empowers Mass Market TD-SCDMA OPhones with PXA920 Chipset [Sept 8, 2009]]. 920 is a single-chip solution enabling mass-market availability of high-end TD smartphone markets specifically to the China market. These solutions that we provide includes a modem, application processor, management and RF devices. We are the first and only suppliers in the world with the complete high-performance TD smartphone solution for this market.
…
At the Mobile Congress last month, we announced the follow-on of the 920 device. The 978 [PXA978] device is a single-chip solution of TD-SCDMA but now is combined with rigorous performance and advanced 3D graphics and 1080p multimedia, as well as the traditional 3G UMTS release [indiscernible] solution to address the requirements of the rest of the world. With these new solutions, cellphone OEMs will now no longer need to design separate development platforms to accommodate different wireless standards for the rest of the world and China. And they will be able to target markets around the world saving at the same time in development cost.
Now hopefully, you can see how our TD platform strategy unfolding. The 920 introduced last year initially targeted TD high-end and as well as medium-end smartphones. However, over time, as we reduce cost of the silicon, the wafers that used to build the 920, this platform will quickly transition to low-end and high-volume smartphones replacing the feature phones, which is the sweet spot market for many of the smartphones in this market. While the 978 will emerge as the new high-end TD-SCDMA phone, as well as high-end global phone.
… At Mobile World Congress, we, Marvell, introduced Kinoma, a software platform that is dedicated to dramatically transform the consumer interactions with electronic devices. Kinoma is a new foundation for creating and delivering fast, simple user experience for a wide range of devices and offers an experience and solution that is truly integrated of silicon to applications, creating new opportunities for OEMs and manufacturers.
…. Last year, when they [China Mobile] introduced the first-generation OPhones, the first-generation OPhones were selling for $300, $400, even $500, U.S. dollars. … In contrast, today, the 920 devices … are high-end smartphones targeted for prices the range of $100 to $150 smartphones. So now, we just need to figure out. The time will tell what will be the difference in the volumes of the TD smartphones when it’s priced between $100 to $150 versus when it was priced at $300 to $500.
Update: The PXA920 opportunity was realized only in September 2011, two years later than the September 2009 launch. See:First real chances for Marvell on the tablet and smartphone fronts [Aug 21, 2011]
ARM at MWC 2011 with Marvell – Kinoma [Feb 25, 2011]
All details about Kinoma on this blog:
Kinoma is now the marvellous software owned by Marvell [Feb 15, 2011]
Marvell Announces First ‘World Phone’ Single Chip Solution: 3G TD-SCDMA Baseband Combining High Performance 1.2 GHz Application Processor with Advanced 3D Graphics and 1080p Multimedia [Feb 14, 2011] (emphasis is mine)
Marvell (Nasdaq: MRVL), a worldwide leader in integrated silicon solutions, continues to build on its heritage of mobile communications innovations with the announcement of its world phone platform based on the Marvell® PXA978 communications processor with Marvell HSPA modem. Marvell’s PXA978 is the industry’s first single-chip solution to feature 3G UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System) and China’s TD-SCDMA (Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access) standard with HSPA (High-Speed Packet Access) support and is intended to enable mobile developers to design 3G cellular devices and tablets that can be used and supported globally.
“… It’s truly amazing that a tiny chip like the PXA978 integrates both 3G and TD-SCDMA basebands, a powerful application processor, all advanced 3D graphics capability, with a very low-power profile and affordable cost structure ideal for mobile devices, such as smartphones and tablets,” said Weili Dai, Marvell’s Co-Founder. “With the addition of Kinoma‘s elegant and intuitive software experience and integration of cutting-edge mobile technologies, Marvell has enabled the entire ecosystem – in both its depth and breadth – to convert conventional cell phones into multi-functional mobile gadgets ideal for gaming, video chatting, live news, and more. This small device has the potential to make a huge impact on our world. I envision that a true world phone will transform the global economy by lowering the cost and barriers to entry for billions more consumers and innovators.”
Unlike current technology on the market, the Marvell world phone development platform is the world’s first and only available solution of its kind featuring R7 3G UMTS and TD-SCDMA with HSPA. Additionally, the platform will feature the industry’s first Mobile MIMO, Avastar(TM) 88W8797, an 802.11n 2×2 dual-band Wi-Fi SoC designed to support high data rates for next-generation mobile devices.
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) no longer need to design separate development platforms to accommodate different wireless standards and target markets around the world, saving months of design time and cost. Instead, they can focus on creating a wide portfolio of 3G UMTS supported phones that can be used globally with other UMTS carriers worldwide – all based on a single development platform.
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Marvell’s PXA978 single chip solution uses advanced 40nm process technology and is designed to deliver 3G TD-SCDMA baseband combining high performance 1.2 GHz application processor with advanced 3D graphics and 1080p multimedia, ensuring a feature-rich, fast and exceptionally smooth user experience. Additionally, the processor’s extremely high power efficiency and true multitasking capabilities is intended to enable OEMs to design mobile devices that represent a significant leap beyond today’s most advanced smartphone and tablet devices. The platform will support all leading OS platforms.




The images leaked online provides glimpses of new HTC Windows Phone 7, currently being called ‘Eternity’. HTC Eternity will land as one of the first most smart phones running Microsoft Windows Phone 7 Mango (WP7) operating system.
The i8350 has also received its very own (blank, for now) page in Samsung’s UK support database, pretty much confirming that it’s real. You can see a screengrab of that above.


1.0 Program Overview





so here is my take

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