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Windows slates in the coming months? Not much seen yet

July 13, 2010 2:06 am / 8 Comments on Windows slates in the coming months? Not much seen yet

On the first day of the Microsoft Worldwide Partner Conference this week there was not much about the Windows slates. It is not surprising given that Intel has just begun real and honest marketing of its sufficiently low power SoCs (see: Intel SoC for Cloud Clients [June 25]).

… what you’ll see over the course of the next year is us doing more and more work with our hardware partners creating hardware-software optimisations with Windows 7 and with Windows 7 Media Center …

  • Even more, Mr. Ballmer is emphasizing that whatever they will be doing on Windows 7 and Windows 7 Media Center basis will still not be the real thing, and everybody should wait for Windows 8 with real “Big Button touch” — i.e. (I would add) waiting till 2012:

… Media Center is big and, when people say ‘hey, we could optimise [that] more for clients’ I think what they generally mean is ‘Big Buttons’.  Big Buttons that’s, I think, a codeword for Big Buttons and Media Center is Big Buttons not Little Buttons. I’m not trying to trivialise that – it’s a real issue.

We’re not going to do a revamp of Windows 7 over the course of the next year for that purpose.  Whether we should, or we shouldn’t, we’ve put all our energy around doing a great job on that and other issues in the next version of Windows …

  • Related post on my other blog: Windows 7 UI overlays from Microsoft and elsewhere [Aug 30]. This is clarifying the UI situation for Apple iPad competitive Windows slates.
  • Related: Compal president pessimistic about non-Apple tablet PC shipments in 2011 [Digitimes, Sept 2]. His prediction is only 15 million units at max while Apple tablet PCs ~10-12 million. Also: “Wintel netbook sales have recently been devoured seriously by tablet PCs and if the two firms do not consider dropping prices or improve performance, sales will continue to drop.”
    Notebook supply chain still has no clear visibility for December orders [Sept 6]: “First-tier notebook makers Quanta Computer and Compal Electronics have recently adjusted their third-quarter notebook shipment forecast from positive growth to an up to 10% drop; however, they still forecast to see growth in the fourth quarter and are working aggressively to bring up their shipments for the quarter.”
  • Update: Even the most Windows slate concious manufacturers are publicly admitting now their dependence on Intel’s lagging chip capabilities (finally): MSI waiting on Intel Oak Trail for Win 7 tablet, Android version will hit before end of the year [Aug 23]. See also Mary-Jo Foley’s Another Windows 7 slate dropped from this year’s Christmas list [Aug 24].
  • Update: Toshiba’s dual-screen Libretto W100 laptop on sale in America for $1,100 [Engadget, Aug 16]. Excellent price for this unique, Intel U5400 based device which has only 0.8 kg weight and 3 cm thickness (when closed). See the complete offering on the Amazon site: Toshiba libretto W105-L251 7-Inch Dual Touchscreen Laptop (Silver/Black). Look at the picture on the right (copied here for convenience). Toshiba’s characterization is nothing less than: “ultramobile companion goes beyond slates and tablets to deliver something more: a full Windows 7 experience to be enjoyed across two touch screens. So now you can enjoy many different things – games, ebooks, movies, music, TV and so on – from a single handheld device.”
  • Toshiba is, however, mum on the battery life, just stating 36 Wh with the large capacity 8-cell Li-Ion battery. Considering Intel U5400‘s 18 W max TDP this is clearly not enough for even 2-3 hours of continuous use. This is why vendors should wait for Oak Trail’s Q1 2011 arrival for their Windows slates.
  • Update: and surely we will have the notebook convertibles with full touch screen capabilities like this: New Smaller LIFEBOOK T580 Is The Gateway to Fujitsu’s Tablet Line Up — Slate-beating LIFEBOOK tablet PC combines touch screen mobility with the convenience of a keyboard [Sept 2], see also the detailed specification. Notable differentiator: “Even in direct sunlight, the screen display is bright and clear thanks to high-definition LED backlighting with an Ambient Light Sensor that automatically adjusts display brightness, while a smear-proof coating means no distractions from fingerprints.” Price, availability: “The LIFEBOOK T580 is the lowest-priced tablet PC in Fujitsu’s line-up. Exact pricing varies by region.  Fujitsu’s LIFEBOOK T580 will be available for all regions in late November 2010”
  • Update: Acer to launch three tablet PC models featuring 5- to 7-inch panels [and Android 3.0 in the first quarter of 2011] [Sept 14]: “Before the Android models are released though, Acer will launch an x86 model using an Intel processor and Windows 7 to test the water in the market”.
  • Crucial issues for the future: What if a Microsoft Surface like functionality will go into this kind of handheld design? I mean a case when one of the screens is configured to work (via software added to Windows 7) as a Microsoft Surface which is even more enhanced with a tailored very general input functionality. I came to this idea when watching the concept video on YouTube (also available on the Amazon site). Even more: What if the Microsoft Courier prototype will also be adopted to this design and brought to the market? Those two things will change the whole market by themselves! And these are “just” software additions to the existing Windows 7. The screens are already multitouch!
  • This little device has been the best what Microsoft could demonstrate at this partner event. See all the detailed information below on that Toshiba Libretto W100 as mentioned at the partner event as well as elsewhere around the web.

This is what Microsoft could tell and demonstrate on this important event:

Microsoft’s Ballmer: Windows 7 slates are coming this year [Mary-Jo Foley’s “All about Microsoft” blog on ZDNet, July 12]

I think it’s way overdue for Microsoft to tell customers what’s coming on the slate front. We’ve heard that there will be Windows Embedded Compact tablets and slates coming, but it’s doubtful (I’d think) that those will be able to run Windows apps.

Microsoft execs can’t — with any credibility — keep pooh-poohing slates, claiming they’re nothing more than PCs, given how quickly the iPad has been gaining traction. Microsoft is known to be focusing on the slate form factor with Windows 8, but that operating system is still likely close to two years away from release.

All that said, there’s more to a slate than just the physical form factor. If there isn’t longer battery life, instant on/off and some kind of app store with not just the usual business apps, but also consumer-focused apps and games, I’m not so sure users are going to bite…

So let’s see in the speech transcripts what has exactly been said today about the slates:

Steve Ballmer: Worldwide Partner Conference 2010 [July 12]

… over the course of the next several months, you will see a range of Windows 7-based slates that I think you’ll find quite impressive. Tami is going to show you some of those today. They’ll come from the people you would expect, from Asus, from Dell, from Samsung, from Toshiba, from Sony. Windows 7-based slates, they’ll come with keyboards, they’ll come without keyboards. They’ll be dockable. There will be many form factors, many price points, many sizes. But they will run Windows 7. They will run Windows 7 applications. They will run Office. They will accept ink as well as touch-based input. And they will be very good for the kinds of scenarios that all of us are going to see for knowledge workers in the business that we serve that want to have something that works super well at work, but also supports their kind of personal interests as they travel.

Tami Reller: Worldwide Partner Conference 2010 [July 12]
(Video record: select from the presspass video gallery)

[Ryan Asdourian demoing for Tami Reller, [8:05 – 11:10]: none of the devices shown in this period of time are releated to the slates or tablets, they are rather variations on notebooks and netbooks]

… [11:10] but I’ve also got some surprises. I’ve got this right here, this Sony P. It’s a beautiful machine. Open this up, this is running the full version of Windows 7 right here. And it’s just really light, it’s beautiful, easy to carry around.
[11:35] Let me hand this one out as well. Just play with this for a second. While you do that, I’m going to show you this one last machine I’ve got. This is called the Toshiba Libretto. And it’s got two capacitive touch screens. You see here, I can actually interact with it right here, and it’s got a core i5 chip so it’s actually running an HD video and I’ve got a document open at the same time. It’s a beautiful machine. [11:50]

… [32:30] seeing apps is really what brings it to life. And seeing some of the great apps that have been built by you. So, let me ask Ryan to come and show us some of the great innovation out there. Welcome back. [[32:40] Ryan Asdourian demoing for Tami Reller] … the first demo I’m actually going to show is actually on this [Hanvon] slate I’ve got here. This is the Copia Reader. And what I can actually do here — I go ahead, I click into this, and what I see is a lot of articles here. I can actually go ahead and drag these right here to my reading queue. I can go ahead, save some of these in my favorites, and this app is actually tied into a bunch of my social networks, so I can see what my friends are doing as well, and they can comment, I can comment on their stuff. It’s a really interactive, rich way to interact and this is all built with Windows, WPF, and has Azure as a back end, so it’s a great example of rich client app and putting the cloud with that. [33:20]

The Sony P-series Lifestyle PC: Just don’t call it a Netbook [Jan 7, 2009]
VAIO P Series Lifestyle PC | Sony:
Estimated Battery Life with Standard Battery6 (included)
– Default Settings: Up to 4.5 hours
– Max. Brightness: Up to 4 hours
Estimated Battery Life with Extended Battery6 (sold separately)
– Default Settings: Up to 9 hours
– Max. Brightness: Up to 8 hours
Power Requirements: 68W + 10%

Toshiba Libretto W100 resurrects the classic UMPC brand with dual 7-inch displays [Engadget, June 21]
Toshiba libretto® Dual-Screen PC:
Toshiba libretto® W100 Dual-Screen PC (coming in August): “Enjoy up to 5 hours battery life” (see here) Warning[Aug 24]: This reference is for Toshiba’s UK site. Elsewhere Toshiba is mum on the battery life, just stating 36 Wh with the large capacity 8-cell Li-Ion battery. Considering Intel U5400‘s (used in current W100/105) 18 W max TDP this is clearly not enough for even 2-3 hours of continuous use. Vendors should wait for Oak Trail’s Q1 2011 arrival for their Windows slates! No question about that.
Toshiba Libretto W100 preview [Engadget, July 1]

So, what’s our overall takeaway after spending an afternoon with the W100? It’s definitely working better than the model we saw a few months back, but even when it did work there’s not much you can do with it. It’s neat as a web surfing device, but very few things take advantage of the two screens — for instance, we’d like to see a compelling e-reading app (eh hem Toshiba Book Place). In the end — even if Toshiba gets all the hardware and software kinks worked out — we’re far from convinced that there’s a place for the W100 in our lives for $1,100.

The latest showing of the lonely Hanvon slate device was just last weekend:

Hanvon Touchpad B10 tablet computer at CES China [July 12]

… new Touchpad B10 [linking to Hanvon’s product page] tablet computer. The 9.96 x 6.61 x 0.70 inch, 1.98 pound device is powered by a 1.3GHz ULV 743 Celeron processor and GMA X4500 display chip from Intel on a GS45 chipset with 2GB DDR2 memory and a 250GB hard disk drive.

Here is an earlier report from Asia already declaring local availability and even superiority: Chinese tablet maker Hanvon throws down the gauntlet to the iPad [May 20]

To mark the availability of its first slate tablet in China, the TouchPad, Hanvon chairman Liu Yingjian smashed an Apple-shaped ice sculpture with a hammer, insinuating that his products are superior to the iPad. He claimed that the Apple slate is like a mere toy which cannot satisfy the real needs of a consumer or business user, unlike the TouchPad B10 and B20 tablets which run on Windows 7.

Quite an ambitious company! E-Reading the Market – Hanwang sells nearly all the digital readers in China. Founder Liu Yingjian knows that won’t last for long. [Forbes, May 28]
(You could see a collection of related videos as well: Hanvon’s E-Reading Market [June 1])

China-based Hanwang Technology has denied rumors that its Hanvon-branded e-book reader sales have been seriously dampened by competition from the Apple iPad and its current inventory has piled up to as high as 500,000 e-book readers, according to a Chinese-language report on sina.com.cn.

Hanwang chairman Liu Yingjian is cited saying that although the second quarter was the weak season for e-book readers, Hanvon’s sales was significant, and the company expects at least 300% growth in net profit in 2010, the report noted.

The 3d party application shown on that slate is not less ambitous: Welcome to Copia

– We’re not just changing the format.
– We’re rewriting the whole reading experience.
– Introducing Copia, the world’s first social reading experience — reading, learning and sharing all in one.

And the latest report regarding the availability: Copia Coming in July? [June 20]
(There is an embedded video demonstration [June 7] of the software as well.)

Google App Inventor Beta for Android

July 12, 2010 6:11 pm / Leave a comment

Google’s Do-It-Yourself App Creation Software [The New York Times, July 11]

… has been under development for a year. User testing has been done mainly in schools with groups that included sixth graders, high school girls, nursing students and university undergraduates who are not computer science majors.

… The Google application tool for Android enables people to drag and drop blocks of code — shown as graphic images and representing different smartphone capabilities— and put them together, similar to snapping together Lego blocks. The result is an application on that person’s smartphone.

App Inventor for Android [Google Blog, July 12]
About App Inventor
App Inventor research project launch [Google Research Blog, July 31, 2009]

Android App Inventor lets you be the developer (video) [Engadget, July 12]

Google is following in Nokia’s footsteps today by offering its users a simple-to-use DIY app maker. Employing a design scheme that relies on visual blocks rather than oodles of arcane code, the App Inventor — still in Beta, of course — has functions for “just about anything” you can do with an Android handset, including access to GPS and phone functionality.

Is Google App Inventor A Gateway Drug Or A Doomsday Device For Android? [TechCrunch, July 11]

Because this new tool makes it easy for anyone to make their own apps, it makes the idea of trying to create your own app a much less daunting one. And that’s the powerful thing here. If this tool can get some kid to start messing around with app creation, maybe they’ll get more interested and start learning actual Java. And then maybe one day they’ll create the next killer app.

… they [Google] have to hope it doesn’t backfire and simply flood the Android Market with more junk apps than already exist. Google already has a problem with surfacing good apps in their market—interesting, given that they are the ones that surface good webpages as mentioned earlier—the problem could get worse if this tool is a success.

Still, I’m going to be cautiously optimistic that this tool is a good thing. Potentially a very good thing. And it’s something Apple should be taking very seriously.

Personal note: One thing is clear, there is a significantly increased momentum for Google Android as has been well indicated by my previous 4 infonuggets:

Android 2.2 (Froyo) excitement is just the tip of the iceberg for the current Android momentum

July 9, 2010 10:25 pm / 9 Comments on Android 2.2 (Froyo) excitement is just the tip of the iceberg for the current Android momentum

Ars technica had two articles in the last 3 days which have created quite an excitement on the web (66K+ hits):

  • This is, however, just “the tip of the iceberg”.
  • To understand that you could read first my two previous infonuggets on the subject if you want to grasp the extent of the current Android momentum:
    – Beyond Android 2.1 [July 4]
    – OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1 [July 5]
  • The mobile Internet technology momentum behind the Android in general could be well understood from my another infonugget:
    – 3.9G TD-LTE rollout in 2012 with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G? [July 19]
  • In addition, Android has just joined the ranks of the 1st tier cloud client software platforms, as has been indicated recently by my another infonugget, titled:
    – E-reading SaaS wars next to e-reader wars [June 30]
  • Finally, below is the whole discussion of Android 2.2 (Froyo) significance which will make the whole “iceberg” completely visible.

Ars reviews Android 2.2 on the Nexus One [July 6], giving the following conclusion about this latest release:

Android 2.2 is an incremental update, but the performance enhancements alone make it an important upgrade for Android enthusiasts. The improved responsiveness and smoother interface transitions really boost the user experience.

Several of the new features—particularly batch updating—offer immediate and obvious benefits. Other features, such as SD storage and cloud backup, aren’t going to start delivering real value until they get broader uptake among Android application developers. I’m particularly enthusiastic about the cloud messaging service—it seems like a capability that will deeply enrich Android and open the door for some innovation in the application development community.

Google’s aggressive development efforts are moving Android forward at a rapid pace. The platform has matured considerably since its initial launch two years ago. The introduction of a JIT [just-in-time compilation] in version 2.2 has largely resolved Android’s performance problems, making it more competitive than ever. As Google works towards version 3.0 and a rumored user interface overhaul, it’s likely that we will see even more innovation.

Android 2.2 demolishes iOS4 in JavaScript benchmarks [July 8] because:

In our recent review [i.e. the previous article] of Android 2.2, we conducted some tests on the Nexus One to measure the extent of the JavaScript performance improvements. SunSpider and V8 benchmarks show that JavaScript execution in Froyo’s Web browser is almost three times faster than in the previous version of the platform.

We compared these findings with that of our tests of Apple’s mobile Safari browser on the iPhone 4. The results show that the Android device delivers significantly faster JavaScript execution than the iPhone, scoring over three times better on V8 and almost twice as fast on SunSpider.

It is worth to combine the results of those two tests in a single chart (recalculated in order to show the performance improvement vs. the performance of the benchmark on the Nexus One with Android 2.1 as the baseline):

The performance improvement is especially remarkable for v8 benchmark which is quite understandable since the V8 Benchmark Suite by Google is:

… a suite of pure JavaScript benchmarks that we have used to tune V8 [JavaScript engine brought to the Android browser as part of 2.2]. …

With this the browser in Android 2.2 (Froyo) is having the same JavaScript performance as Google’s mainstream browser since:

V8 is Google’s open source, high performance JavaScript engine. It is written in C++ and is used in Google Chrome, Google’s open source browser. [see: V8 JavaScript Engine]

SunSpider is just delivering about half of the performance improvement of the V8 benchmark suite which could be because:

This [SunSpider] test mostly avoids microbenchmarks, and tries to focus on the kinds of actual problems developers solve with JavaScript today, and the problems they may want to tackle in the future as the language gets faster [see: SunSpider JavaScript Benchmark].

Note: The main characteristics of a microbenchmark are the following:
• Small program
– Datasets may be large
• All time spent in a few lines of code
• Performance depends on how those few lines are compiled
• Goal: Discover some particular fact
• Remove all other variables
[See: slide #8 of the How NOT To Write A Microbenchmark presentation from JavaOne 2002]
The V8 benchmark suite used for tuning the engine might be more “microbenchmarkish” than the SunSpider benchmark which is explicitly trying to avoid microbenchmarking!

Developers of Android are themselves declaring that:

This has resulted in a 2-3X improvement in JavaScript performance vs. 2.1. See: Android 2.2 and developers goodies [May 10, 2010].

which seems to well correspond to the performance improvement result by the SunSpider benchmark suite.

Ars technica, however, didn’t carry out benchmarking of the Java engine used in Android 2.2 (so called Dalvik, which is not a regular JVM) albeit vast majority of Android applications are coded in Java, and:

The new Dalvik JIT [just-in-time] compiler in Android 2.2 delivers between a 2-5X performance improvement in CPU-bound code vs. Android 2.1 according to various benchmarks.

This is from the same, Android 2.2 and developers goodies [May 10, 2010] blog post which contains other significant improvements from developers’ point of view as well.

Endnote: My statement in the name of the post, that the type of Android 2.2 (Froyo) excitement shown by Ars technica is “just the tip of the iceberg” is even more true from software developers’ perspective. A lot of professional developers in technologically well established and long mature camps, like Microsoft .NET and JVM based enterprise Java / community developed application frameworks (eg. Spring), are considering the Android framework quite underperforming and immature. I’ve met even misunderstanding among them, that Android is programmed in JavaSript or even C++.

With the introduction of Dalvik JIT there are no more reasons to underrate Android (2.2 and above)! To dismiss the wrong belief of “JavaScript and C++ only” programming myth for Android I am usually providing the following links and quotes as well:

http://developer.android.com/guide/basics/what-is-android.html

Android includes a set of core libraries that provides most of the functionality available in the core libraries of the Java programming language.

… Android includes a set of C/C++ libraries used by various components of the Android system. These capabilities are exposed to developers through the Android application framework.

Since June 2009 there is also a Native Development Kit (NDK) for which it is good to know that:

Android applications run in the Dalvik virtual machine. The NDK allows you to implement parts of your applications using native-code languages such as C and C++. This can provide benefits to certain classes of applications, in the form of reuse of existing code and in some cases increased speed.
… Please note that the NDK does not enable you to develop native-only applications. Android’s primary runtime remains the Dalvik virtual machine.
http://developer.android.com/sdk/ndk/index.html

As you know, Android applications run in the Dalvik virtual machine. The NDK allows developers to implement parts of these applications using native-code languages such as C and C++.
http://android-developers.blogspot.com/2009/06/introducing-android-15-ndk-release-1.html

… the NDK is a companion to the SDK that provides tools to generate and embed native ARM machine code within your application packages. This native code has the same restrictions as the VM code, but can execute certain operations much more rapidly. This is useful if you’re doing heavy computations, digital processing, or even porting existing code bases written in C or C++.
http://android-developers.blogspot.com/2009/09/now-available-android-16-ndk.html

Finally, the use of JavaScript requires absolutely different considerations, namely: Building Android Apps with HTML, CSS, and JavaScript, extensively elaborated in a so named and actually excellent book under development (and hence available online as just linked) by Jonathan Shark, which has a Chapter 1 with the following observations (to get a feeling of difference):

What is a Web App?

To me, a web app is basically a web site that is specifically optimized for use on a smartphone. The site content could be anything from a standard small business brochure site to a mortgage calculator to a daily calorie tracker–the content is irrelevant. The defining characteristics of a web app are that the user interface is built with web standard technologies, it is available at a URL (public, private, or perhaps behind a login), and it is optimized for the specifics of a mobile device. A web app is not installed on the phone, it is not available in the Android Market, and it is not written with Java.

What is a Native App?

In contrast, native apps are installed on the Android phone, they have access to the hardware (speakers, accelerometer, camera, etc.), and they are written with Java. The defining characteristic of a native app, however, is that it’s available in the Android Market–a feature that has captured the imagination of a horde of software entrepreneurs worldwide, me included.

…

Which Approach is Right for You?

Here’s where it gets exciting. The always-online nature of the Android phone creates an environment where the lines between a web app and a native app get blurry. There are even some little known features of the Android web browser that allow you to take a web app offline if you want.What’s more, several third party projects–of which PhoneGap is the most notable–are actively developing solutions that allow web developers to take a web app and package it as a native app for Android and other mobile platforms.

For me, this is the perfect blend. I can write in my native language, release a product as a pure web app (for Android and any other devices that have a modern browser), and use the same code-base to create an enhanced native version that can access the device hardware and potentially be sold in the Android Market. This is a great way to create a “fremium” model for your app – allow free access to the web app, and charge for the more feature-rich native version.

OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1

July 5, 2010 10:17 am / 9 Comments on OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1

… the carrier announced on Monday it was preparing to establish its Ophone Innovation Alliance, said Bill Huang, general manager of the China Mobile Research Institute.

“Our Ophone strategy is constantly moving forward,” Huang said during in a speech at a conference in Beijing. Huang did not give any specific details about the alliance, but encouraged potential partners to participate once more information is publicized. The company has spent over a year planning the alliance.

The announcement follows China Mobile’s effort to promote its OMS in April, when Huang urged developers in Taiwan to build more mobile applications for the operating system. At the time, Huang said there were around 600 apps developed specifically for Ophones. In contrast, Apple’s App Store features more than 300,000 third-party applications.

Building less expensive smartphones without sacrificing quality is critical to China Mobile’s business strategy, Huang added. “If we can effectively make an advanced smartphone less expensive, then more users will come to use China Mobile’s services in a shorter amount of time,” he said.

China Mobile is also working to introduce more middle and higher-end smartphones for its 3G network, said company chairman Wang Jianzhou during a speech at the conference.

While China Mobile may have a relatively small number of applications for OMS, the company’s app store continues to gain in popularity. Since it opened in 2009, the carrier’s Mobile Market has recorded 70 million downloads, Wang said. The store features apps and multimedia downloads for different mobile operating systems.

  • Update: Despite of recent reports on weakening OPhone support within China Mobile (see the below update) there are newer reports pointing just to the opposite direction:
    – China Mobile to procure 6 million TD-SCMA handsets, says Chinese media [Oct 8]: “Of the total, 3.6 million will be of entry-level models and 2.4 million mid-range products. … the latest procurement effort is largely due to the fourth phase of the China Mobile’s TD-SCMA network construction. When completed, demand for TD-SCMA end-use products is expected to increase substantially.”
    – China market: Inexpensive TD-SCDMA handsets to be available in 4Q10 [Oct 13]: “Pushed by China Mobile, TD-SCDMA handsets and smartphones at retail prices of about 500 yuan (US$75) and 1,000 yuan respectively will be available in the China market in the fourth quarter of 2010. … China Mobile is setting up its fourth-phase TD-SCDMA network of more than 100,000 base stations and expects the number of TD-SCDMA subscribers to increase from 13.42 million currently to 100 million in 2012.”
    – China Mobile: 4G network coming soon [Sept 15] is stating that “4G data card is close to debut and the carrier and partners are working on the research of 4G handset chip … China Mobile is expected to launch 4G mobile communication services as early as 2011 to boost its high-margin data services, according to the GSM Association.”
    – China Mobile to set up device sourcing company [Sept 17] is telling that “The planned device-sourcing company will begin to purchase TD-SCDMA-enabled feature phones with prices below 1,000 yuan (US$148) at the end of the year and then shift to smartphones priced below 2,000 yuan in the first half of 2011“.
  • Update: OPhone fails to connect [Aug 24] which reports that with the change of leadership in June all the technology initiatives started under the previous GM and managed by Bill Huang (Huang Xiaoqing), head of  China Mobile’s Research Institute, will get less support — this is the case of OPhone — or even have been put on hold — the case of mobile payment project. Reasons are the insufficient progress. The estimations are, for example, that OPhone sales are less than half of the number of iPhones bought in China. Quite important article on what is going inside China Mobile.

• OPhone 2.0 Platform Debuts in Beijing [June 28]
• Samsung first to unveil handset for oPhone 2.0 [June 29] – important to note: “Nokia is also planning a smartphone for the carrier using the oPhone overlay and hardware specs, but running on Symbian.”
• Samsung I7680 (Oscar) parameters – Google translated from Chinese
• The world’s first mobile phone Samsung I7680 evaluation OMS 2.0 [July 1] Google translated from Chinese
• Page 3: Fusion Android 2.1, OMS 2.0 magnificent transfiguration [From Android2.1 transfiguration OPhone2.0 evaluation Samsung I7680] – [5 July] all Google translated from Chinese

The developer of the platform is the Beijing based Borqs: http://borqs.com/index.jsp. They describe the OPhone OS (short for Open Mobile Phone Operating System) platform here: About OPhone OS. See also the recent interview with their CEO: BORQS Ophone OS & more & the China mobile revolution [May 27], important to note: “Borqs is the only company that has done significant Android customization.”

But the supporter is the world largest mobile phone company: China Mobile wants Android apps for its Ophones [April 7], launching the first version of the platform last year: China Mobile Ophone hopes [Sept 1, 2009], China Mobile Launches OPhone [Sept 1, 2009], China’s first OPhone-based mobile phone hits market [16 Dec, 2009]. The last, OMS 1.5 was Android 1.5 based: OPhone SDK 1.5 New features and API changes ENG.1 [Nov 19, 2009].

Note [updated with June data on July 20]: The 3G customer base of the China Mobile is still embryonic with just 1.9% (10.46 million) of the overall number of customers (554 million) at the end of June 2010. Also this number has not been increased significantly for the last 18 month, as shown by the chart below. Meanwhile the rival China Unicom has 4.8% (7.56 million) of the 2G+3G customer base (157 million) on 3G (by end of June 2010):

Another rival, China Telecom, is not publishing 3G numbers. The MIIT* Q1’CY10 3G numbers for China Telecom (CDMA2000) were 5.57 million, i.e. 8.5% of their total CDMA subscriber base (65.45 million).
*Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

Overall 3G market share in Q1’CY10 according to the above MIIT report:  42.5% China Mobile, 30.8% China Telecom, 26.7% China Unicom. For end of May a China Telecom “official said it now has between 6 million and 7 million 3G subscribers”, i.e. about the same number as China Unicom (6.5 million).

The follow-up MIIT report for end of June 2010 is indicating 7.18 million 3G subscribers for China Telecom. When combined with the company’s July 20 stock market closing report this would be 9.6% of their total CDMA subscriber base (74.52 million). Overall 3G market share at the end of H1’CY10 corresponding to the follow-up MIIT report would be: 41.5% China Mobile (-1% vs. Q1’CY10), 28.5% China Telecom (-2.3% vs. Q1’CY10), 30% China Unicom (+3% vs. Q1’CY10). A significant gain for the W-CDMA!

The 3G numbers in China are well below of other geographies. See: Could China close the gap in mobile Internet? It should! [July 21] The Chinese government and all the three mobile operators are therefore making extraordinary efforts to close the gap between China and the rest of the world.

There is also an OPhone SDN (OPhone Software Developer Network) community site: http://www.ophonesdn.com/. Here you can find the OPhone SDK Documentation in English, currently for v1.5: http://www.ophonesdn.com/documentation/index. The rest is in Chinese.

The platform is also going out of the mainland China:
first, to Taiwan: Taiwan-based III to cooperate with China Mobile to develop OPhone [brief, June 10], China, Taiwan agree on Android, Ophone, WiMax, TD-LTE, more [detailed, June 10]
then to US and RoW: China’s OPhone to find its way to US as Android+ [May 28, 2010]

China, Taiwan agree on Android, Ophone, WiMax, TD-LTE, more

Beyond Android 2.1

July 4, 2010 7:04 pm / 3 Comments on Beyond Android 2.1

UnwiredView: Android 3.0 Gingerbread details: 1280×760 resolution, 1Ghz minimum specs, mid-Oct. release [Jun 30]
then: Revisiting Android 3/Gingerbread details post. Some corrections, clarifications [July 2]

Between these two original English posts has been an avalanche like reporting and discussion (almost half million hits!) of the Android future, all based on this source alone (directly or much more indirectly).
Note: The funny thing is that UnwiredView’s Staska (definitely a Russian speaker) has used as a trusted source the [30:36 – 38:45] time duration part of the Russian podcast Айфономания, серия четвертая, Выпуск 19 (or this one). One thing I would include here from that podcast: “As of today the number of daily Android activations has reached 160 thousands. With this Android will be #2 behind Symbian before the end of 2010”.

This is a typical reporting based on the UnwiredView source:
• Android 3.0 may ship in mid-October, carry minimum specs [Electronista, June 30] originally named: Google may fork Android 3 to guarantee experience
which – however – worth to mention here because it has a whole chain of links to previous/other posts on the pressing issues with current Android versions, and these also validate very much the original rumor (indepedent of its origin): 
• Android 3.0 to hasten the end of custom UIs? [Electronista, June 16], originally named: Android’s Gingerbread may hurt HTC Motorola
• Android Team “Laser Focused” On The User Experience For Next Release [TechCrunch, June 16]
• Android to end app fragmentation by 3.0? [Electronista, March 29], originally named: Android to detach core apps from OS updates
• Exclusive: Android Froyo to take a serious shot at stemming platform fragmentation [Engadget, March 29]
• Sprint Android 2.2 plans trigger outrage, highlight OS woes [Electronista, June 25] originally named: Evo 4G and other Sprint phones reach 2.2 soon
• Sprint expects to launch Android 2.2 in near future [Sprint News, June 25]
• Adobe posts Flash 10 for Android, leaks Android 2.2 upgrades [Electronista, June 22] originally named: Adobe outs mobile Flash 10 only for android 2.2
• HTC promises Android 2.2 updates in 2010 [Electronista, May 20] originally named: Froyo coming to company’s latest Android phones
• Samsung won’t upgrade Behold II, shows Android fragmentation [Electronista, May 28, 2010] originally named: Samsung says Behold II can’t go past Android 1.6

Intel dismisses WiMAX Program Office

July 1, 2010 9:33 am / 6 Comments on Intel dismisses WiMAX Program Office

As has been reported in my infonugget WiMAX/WiBro <=>
TD-LTE and LTE in general Intel’s WiMAX initiative started in 2006 is not bringing the yields once hoped by chip giant.

As a result of that the Taiwanese DigiTimes has just reported an internal Intel announcement that Intel backs off WiMAX industry, dismisses WiMAX Program Office, say sources. Intel’s Taiwanese partners haven’t got any information from Intel yet and hope that this will not end the cooperation which started years ago.

Industry executives estimated MediaTek Inc. would likely become the world`s No.1 supplier of WiMAX chips in the second half of 2011 thanks to the unmatched strength of Taiwan`s networking-communications equipment industry, which has filled 80-90% of the world demands.

The projections arise at a time when Intel Corp., the foremost engineer behind WiMAX trend, exits the market because of low acceptance of its embedded WiMAX modules for laptops. Industry executives felt MediaTek would likely fill up the vacancy left by Intel in WiMAX.

[But WiMAX is, certainly, not the only bet for Mediatek: MediaTek, NTT DoCoMo Partner on LTE Mobile Tech [July 28]]

… affected by the WiMAX industry’s uncertainty in the future, executives and technicians of the company’s WiMAX department have started leaving and the business is generating monthly losses of NT$10 million for the company. …

[despite clarifications by Intel, as described in the update well below] Intel’s partners in Taiwan remain concerned whether Intel will continue to support WiMAX and fulfill promises made in an MOU signed with the Taiwan government …

… The move has also upset the government seriously, which has been cooperating closely with Intel in pushing investments in WiMAX technology. The Taiwanese government and industries have reportedly requested Intel to make three commitments, including transference of patented WiMAX technology and IOT (interoperability test) solution to Taiwan, signing of a letter of intent for cooperation with Taiwan, and maintenance of its Asia-Pacific WiMAX office or institution of a new unit dedicated to WiMAX business. …
… Industry insiders noted that the retreat from the WiMAX camp will jeopardize the trust of Taiwan in its long-standing cooperative link with Intel. Huang Chung-chiu, vice economics minister, however, noted that even if Intel decides to quit, the Taiwanese WiMAX industry will remain intact, since it has established a complete supply chain.

… Among advanced wireless broadband access technology standards, WiMAX is the best in terms of maturity of technological development and application and is expected to share 20-25% of the global market of wireless communications in the future, MOEA indicated. …

… The five WiMAX operators expressed a consensus that WiMAX has taken a considerable lead in technological development over its rival LTE (Long Term Evolution) whose development is not mature yet.

Far EasTone Telecommunications, the only WiMAX operator not attending the press conference, issued a statement stressing its support of the government’s promotion of WiMAX and its intentions to continue expanding its WiMAX operation. But it said it will also watch the development of LTE to assess the possibility of integrating the two standards.

But keep in mind: China Mobile and Far EasTone Enter Into Share Subscription Agreement and Strategic Cooperation Agreement [April 29, 2009], China Mobile, Far Eastone Team For TD-LTE Wireless Trials [April 8] and Taiwan’s Far EasTone, China Mobile to Offer Games, Music on Mobile Phones [July 8]

… Far EasTone shareholders have approved the sale of a 12 percent stake to China Mobile, which in April last year agreed to pay NT$17.8 billion ($554 million) for the stake in the Taiwan phone company. The two carriers have said they are awaiting the easing of the Taiwan government’s restrictions on Chinese investment in the island’s communications industry to complete the transaction. …

That is coming sooner than later, see: Mainland investment in Taiwan set to rise [June 29], President Ma orders Legislature not to tinker with ECFA [July 1], Government commission to implement ECFA in September [July 13]

  • Update [July 7]: Intel’s Director, Product and Technology Media Relations, Global Communications Group, Bill Kirkos responded to that on Intel’s technology blog Backing Off 4G WiMAX? Hold Your Horses [July 1] with saying:

There has never been one single wireless standard out there, and WiMAX, LTE, 3G et al will all co-exist. And who knows, others will probably pop up, too, in the coming years. As we’ve said before, 4G WiMAX and LTE are very similar and Intel could support both technologies. …

As for the WiMAX Program Office. Intel forms program offices to help create, support and get a technology, standard (and/or new customer) into market as fast as possible. We have a handful of them around the corporation. By definition, these offices are temporary. And that’s what has happened in the case of WiMAX. That office was formed some four years ago, and in that time, the standard was complete; testing and full-scale deployments have happened (>500 worldwide); and heck, even a really popular phone among several other devices have hit the market. The standards group has even identified the next generation enhanced 802.16e specification.

So for us, the mission of getting WiMAX off the ground and in the market is accomplished. The folks working in the program office merely are being housed under our existing Intel business groups.

  • There has been another response as well from Nick Jacobs, Intel APAC Regional PR Group Manager as the following comment to the TechEYE’s Intel pulls out of WiMAX post [July 1]:

Digitimes applied more than their usual license to this one – yes, Intel is reorganizing its WiMAX Program Office (WPO) to better integrate WiMAX into its existing platform and product groups. However, this change is intended to put WiMAX-focused resources and expertise within the teams that can best commercialize WiMAX as it moves beyond start-up phase to a mature wireless technology. Today there are already more than 500 WiMAX networks in 147 countries bringing broadband to over 10 million people.

This evolution is a normal process that takes place as technologies mature and become a standard part of existing computing platforms. Intel remains committed to WiMAX.

FYI, Digitimes called us to ask about what they’d heard from “sources” and we told them just this – but somehow the truth wasn’t allowed to get in the way of a good story…

GigaOM’ conclusion: Intel’s WiMAX Office Closure Could Open Doors for TD-LTE [July 1].

This failure is quite significant since only the investment done through Intel Capital (i.e. not speaking of billions spent on chip development by the mother company) is by far the biggest part of the fund’s portfolio with not less than $1B put into an estimated $12B deal between Clearwire and Sprint where additional non-telecom companies (Comcast, Time Warner, Google) have put together $2.2B alone:
• Clearwire Completes Transaction with Sprint Nextel and $3.2 Billion Investment to Launch 4G Mobile Internet Company [Dec 1, 2008]
– Combination of Sprint and Clearwire’s WiMAX Businesses with $3.2 Billion Cash Investment from Comcast, Intel, Time Warner Cable, Google, and Bright House Networks Creates New Opportunities for Next-Generation Services
• Big Tech Firms to Invest in Wireless [May 7, 2008]
– Sprint, Comcast, Google, Time Warner and Intel Join Forces in New Broadband Joint Venture
• Q&A: Intel Capital’s Arvind Sodhani explains Clearwire-Sprint deal [May 7, 2008]
• Intel’s $600 Million Clearwire Investment Shows Its WiMax Commitment [July 6, 2006]
• In Depth: Intel’s Chip Plans Give WiMax A Mighty Push Forward [July 3, 2006]

Considering Clearwire’s current market capitalisation of $6.9B the loss is quite evident. “As of December 26, 2009, our investment balance in Clearwire LLC was $261 million …” [see: Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, 2009 Annual Report]. The current state of services is well described in this recent article:
• Clearwire Expands 4G Wireless Service [June 28, 2010]
– Richmond, Va., Salt Lake City, and St. Louis join the growing list to receive WiMax Internet coverage from Sprint/Clearwire
Note: Originally WiMAX should have been capturing the 4G market well ahead of LTE because it is “two to three years ahead of any competing technology” (see the above Q&A). The stock market – however – had indicated as early as end of 2008 that ClearWire had much less business potential. “As a result of the year-end market price of Clearwire Corporation stock, Intel will impair the value of its investment, resulting in a non-cash charge to fourth-quarter earnings of approximately $950 million.” (see Intel Announces Preliminary Fourth-Quarter Financial Information [Jan 7, 2009]). Almost all of the original investment, and a year later that was just still $261 million in real value!

Intel Capital has also supported the WiMAX initiative worldwide by other, smaller investments targeted for accelerated deployment:
• Intel, Taiwan Government to Establish Mobile Device Open Source Software Development Center [Oct 30, 2008], Intel Capital Intends to Invest NT$386 Million in VMAX for Mobile WiMAX
• Intel Capital Makes RM50M Investment In Malaysia’s Green Packet To Advance WiMAX [May 19, 2008]
• Intel Capital Invests US$8 Million in Innowireless to Accelerate Wimax Deployment [Nov 27, 2007]
• Intel Capital and MCI have invested in Bulgarian WiMAX operator Nexcom [Sept 12, 2007]
• Intel Capital Extends WiMAX Investments Worldwide [May 22, 2006]

•

E-reading SaaS wars next to e-reader wars

June 30, 2010 8:08 pm / 4 Comments on E-reading SaaS wars next to e-reader wars

Monday’s announcement from Amazon, Free Kindle for Android App Now Available [June 28], has generated quite a stir on the web. My time duration (of the first 24 hours) and subject specific search brought back ~277 000 hits. From these I would just mention two which might best express the reasons for this excitement:

• With Kindle for Android, Amazon’s Winning Strategy Is Complete to which I would add the following image and acompanying text from the Amazon Kindle site to make it crystal clear:“Our Whispersync technology synchronizes your Kindle library and last page read across devices, so you can always pick up right where you left off. Buy a book once, and read it anywhere.”

• Let the e-Reader Content Wars Begin which I would rather call: e-reading SaaS wars.

This is in addition to the device wars started a week before:
• War of the e-readers: Kindle, Nook & Kobo
• Barnes & Noble Introduces NOOK Wi-Fi® and Lowers NOOK 3G Price, Giving Book Lovers Greater Choice and Even Greater Value [June 21]:
– At Only $149, Wi-Fi-Only Addition to NOOK Family is the Most Full-Featured, Low-Cost eBook Reader on the Market, Now Available Online at http://www.nook.com
– Bestseller NOOK 3G is First Dedicated eBook Reader with Free 3G Wireless and Wi-Fi Connectivity Available at $199
– Latest Software Update to Both NOOK Models Offers NOOK Customers Complimentary Access at All AT&T Wi-Fi Hot Spots and Improved Reading Features
• Amazon Kindle Now Only $189 [June 21]
• to which Barnes & Noble responded with a Product Comparison Chart, NOOK 3G and NOOK Wi-Fi and eBookstore factsheets, emphasizing that on $189 Kindle 2 there is no:
– color touch screen;
– Wi-Fi®/802.11b/g, Free Wi-Fi® in all Barnes & Noble stores and Free Wi-Fi® in all AT&T hotspots;
– memory expansion (via MicroSD);
– browsing and exclusive content in Barnes & Noble stores;
– EPUB and eReader formats supported;
– digital lending; and
– replaceable battery
(indicating just Word document support and text to speech as missing features)

The 3d, latecomer to this competition, Kobo has been represented in this battle by his business partner/shareholder, the US Borders Group:
• Borders Offers Best eReader Values on Market [June 22]
– Company Bundles $20 Gift Card with Purchase of Kobo eReader
– Company introduces application for the iPhone and the iPad
which were added to Borders’ previous market offensive actions:
• Borders(R) and Aluratek Partner on ‘Libre’ eBook Reader Pro [June 1], First $119 Device Featuring Link to Borders eBook Store Available for Pre-Order at Borders.com
• Borders Launches New E-commerce Site [May 27]
– Borders.com features unique Magic Shelf™ technology and exclusive video programming that brings a real bookstore experience online
– In-store kiosks will introduce Borders.com shopping option in Borders stores nationwide
for which they have secured all the necessary vendor alliances.
• Borders(R) Launches Digital Initiative [May 07]
– Pre-Orders Now Open for Kobo(TM) eReader;
– eBook Store and Apps Unveiled Next Month
• Spring Design and Borders Announce eBook Agreement [Jan 7]:
“an agreement in principle to feature the upcoming Borders eBook store powered by Kobo on the new dual display Alex(TM) eReader later this year”
• Borders Partners With Kobo to Deliver eBooks [Dec 15, 2009]:
“Through the partnership, Borders will launch a new eBook store integrated into Borders.com and powered by Kobo. In addition, Kobo will power a Borders-branded eBook store for multiple mobile devices. Sales through these Borders-branded eBook stores will be booked by Borders. Kobo’s mobile applications are device neutral, which will enable consumers to purchase eBooks from Borders on popular smartphones such as the iPhone, BlackBerry, Palm Pre and Android, as well as other devices. Borders and Kobo plan to launch these new services within the second quarter of 2010.”

Borders’ offering is therefore coming quite close to that of Amazon and Barnes & Noble. Because of the choice of e-readers it is even technically more flexible. From e-reading SaaS point of view their current [June 30] state is as follows:

It looks quite similar in concept and plan to that of current Amazon (see the picture in the beginning) and Barnes & Noble as well.
Note: from B&N’s product comparison chart it is clear that they are equal to Amazon’s offering from e-reading SaaS point of view, only the Android smartphone support is not there yet, see B&N Reader for Android Phones?.

Such a look however is deceiving. First of all the Kobo e-reader has just USB and Bluetooth connectivity (see Kobo’s eReader Device Comparison) nothing like Kindle 2’s USB and 3G, or Nook’s USB and 3G/WiFi. Also the $120 priced Aluratek‘s Libre Pro has just USB connectivity. For at least this very reason the “last page read across devices” functionality is not available in Borders’ current e-reading SaaS experience, supplied by Kobo. Competition however will force both Kobo and Borders to introduce e-readers with WiFi and/or 3G connectivity when their e-reading SaaS should also be upgraded for the smooth sharing and syncing experience provided now by both Kindle and Nook.
Note: without the WiFi / 3G connectivity – in addition – you cannot get e-books directly to your reader, your free e-reader desktop app (PC or Mac) should be used first and then the purchased e-books loaded over through the USB or Bluetooth connection. This is considered to be rather inconvenient by today’s standards.

The wars for both e-reading SaaS and e-readers is therefore very important to create a level playing field (in the US) in terms of complete experiences and affordable offerings. We should therefore welcome these wars as essential to mass adoption of e-reading (in the US, which then could be followed by other countries quite soon).

Additional information:

Kobo e-readers are already sold in other countries as well: currently in Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The Canadian Indigo Books & Music Inc, Canada’s largest book retailer, is actually the 58% majority shareholder of Kobo, while – in addition to Borders’ – there are other shareholders from Australia and Hong Kong as well. This coalition is definitely aiming at taking the international market not only in e-readers but in e-reading services launched by local book retailers as well. See: Kobo Powers its First International eBook Store.

The hardware used by Aluratek in his Libre Pro is from the Chinese manufacturer, JCNIP:
JCNIP M218A e-book device coming this month [Sept 5, 2006]
JCNIP new ereader—M218B [Oct 11, 2007]
which appeared under Dr. Yi brand for their original Chinese market as: Dr. Yi-M218A — Doctor M218A + Easy — Doctor M218A + enhanced trade — Dr. Yi M218B (sources translated by Google). Their latest model, the rechargeable battery powered M218C is sold currently in China for 999.00 yuan, i.e. for ~$150.

This hardware has also been introduced into the US market much earlier by ECTACO:
New jetBook e-book reader from ECTACO set to change the way we read forever! [Mar 21, 2008]
ECTACO Inc. releases the most affordable eBook Reader – the jetBook-Lite [Oct 27, 2009]
Ectaco Jetbook – a brief review [Feb 5, 2010]
Ectaco jetBook Lite eBook Reader Now $99 [June 17, 2010]
The $99 price is clearly showing that e-reader wars will continue to that price level, which could be reached by some other e-readers eas early as by Christmas this year.

All these devices are using a really low-cost, unique and almost unknown screen:
TOSHIBA MATSUSHITA DISPLAY TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD. STARTS MASS PRODUCTION OF 5-INCH VGA MONOCHROME REFLECTIVE-TYPE TFT LCD
[Jan 16, 2007] Features both High Resolution and High Reflectance
This manufacturer has since been renamed:
Toshiba to take over LCD joint venture with Panasonic [Apr 1, 2009]

Barnes & Noble Introduces NOOK Wi-Fi® and Lowers NOOK 3G Price, Giving Book Lovers Greater Choice and Even Greater Value

WiMAX/WiBro TD-LTE and LTE in general

June 28, 2010 6:37 pm / 6 Comments on WiMAX/WiBro TD-LTE and LTE in general

See also: Mobile Internet (Aug’11) which is a total update on Aug 26, 2011 with a lot of additions to the original July 19, 2010 content on the following subjects:
– LTE and LTE Advanced — HSPA Evolved (parallel to LTE and LTE Advanced) — Heterogeneous networks or HetNets — Femtocells and Picocells — Qualcomm innovations in all that — Ericsson’s LTE Advanced demo — Current roadmaps on evolutions of current 3G+ broadband mobile networks

Intel’s Bad Bet on WiMAX Pays Off for TD-LTE was the original post on last Friday. The title – for some, not-communicated reason – has been changed later to Intel’s Losing Big Money on WiMAX. Whatever the title is this has got quite a broad replication over the web in 3 days showing its significance.

… WiMax operators in the U.K. and The Netherlands are closing and … U.S. operators are considering re-applying their spectrum to other technologies.

… but LTE basestations are only just being rolled out in production quantities. “LTE basestations are on 18-month lead times and there is a problem with a lack of suitable sites for basestations.”

Whereas a 3G basestation cell could support 4,000 users, an LTE cell is smaller and can only support 600 users, so seven times as many basestations are needed to support the same number of users …. That means additional sites have to be found and, in addition, placing LTE equipment on the roofs of tall buildings doesn’t always provide street-level coverage as it normally did for 3G basestations.

The result is likely to be an inability to service the demand created by sales of smartphones. …

Comment by alan.varghese: The assertion that a 3G basestation cell can support 4000 users, while an LTE cell can only support 600 is not entirely accurate and needs further clarification.

… What the analyst may be referring to is that if you deploy LTE in the 2.6GHz band, and compare that to 3G in the 850 or 1900MHz bands, the LTE cell size looks smaller. But this is due to penetration and coverage limitations of the higher frequency, and is obviously not a valid apples-to-apples comparison.

To find more information regarding this bold statement one should get a paid subscription from the publisher GigaOM, so I will provide a couple of sources here which could clarify that statement equally well.

First, TD-LTE itself is a quite long discussion worth a more detailed essay on this blog (this is put on my essay plans now). So I will just recommend here a nugget-type brief overview from Mattias Ganslandt on the TalkStandards.com: TD-LTE’s Place in the 4G Wireless Landscape [June 17].

Second, the impetus for such a strong statement has come from the June 11 conclusion of the BWA (Broadband Wireless Access) spectrum auction in India, for which I could offer the view of a leading local analyst, Shiv K. Bakhshi: BWA spectrum auction leaves a changed telecom landscape in India. He is even daring to write:

In an earlier column, I had suggested that the BWA auction in India could finally put to rest the debate whether WiMAX or TD-LTE will triumph in the 2.3 GHz band unpaired TDD spectrum across the world. Unfortunately for WIMAX, this may well be the case. All data points suggest that WiMAX signals – hopes, if you prefer – may be beginning to fade in India.

Worse, this might be a precursor to a similar scenario unfolding across the world.

This is all despite of:
– CommunicAsia 2010: Intel Still Bullish on WiMax [June 15]
– LTE, WiBro to be global 4G standards [June 16, The Korea Herald]
– WiMAX vs LTE: The battle continues [June 28, The Jakarta Post]

Even the latter source is arguing:

Personally, I would still think that, although the worldwide market share of WiMAX is not going to grow as fast as it was first expected and that LTE will become the mainstream, will still have some hope. Let us not forget that Intel throws its weight behind WiMAX.

Just imagine if Intel, the world’s largest supplier of processors for personal computers, comes up with a new specification — akin to the Centrino — then combines the chipset for its processors with a built-in WiMAX module.

Meanwhile the biggest force behind LTE (original FDD variant), NTT DoCoMo is closing his LTE actions (started in 2006 as “Super 3G”) as follows (slide #26 of the June, 2010 Facts presentation):
・DOCOMO introduced its W-CDMA-based 3G service in 2001, and then eventually launched HSDPA(※) for high-speed data communication up to 7.2 Mbps
・DOCOMO’s 3G network is being overlain with HSPA(※), and later LTE(※) (Super 3G), for even faster data speed and greater data volume
・DOCOMO is developing a next-generation network to smooth the migration to a 4G (IMT-Advanced) service offering ultra high-speed communication of up to 1Gps


More information:
・DOCOMO to Begin Pre-launch Operation of LTE Network [June 8]
・Focus on the future – views of DoCoMo’s chief strategist on LTE deployment [May 28]
・NTT DoCoMo Achieves 250Mbps Downlink in Super 3G Field Experiment
— Key Step toward Realization of New High-Speed Mobile Network — [March 26]
・Dual W-CDMA/LTE remote radio equipment [introduced in Dec 17, 2009]

With this NTT DoCoMo is actually ahead of even TeliaSonera, launching LTE worldwide first in December 2009, because:

TeliaSonera decided not to conduct LTE trials so that it could be first to launch the next-generation mobile broadband technology, according to Ljunggren. “My advice is don’t make any trials,” he said. …

TeliaSonera’s LTE service, which uses LTE-only USB dongles from Samsung Corp. , is limited to a few thousand users. The operator expects to have soon multimode dongles supporting 2G, 3G, and LTE.
[TeliaSonera on LTE: Just Do It!, May 18; see also the video record of LTE: Tommy Ljunggren, Teliasonera interview]

Verizon Wireless will also launch LTE (FDD version) operations in the US this year:
・Verizon: LTE’s launch on the horizon; not worried about WiMax [March 24]
・A step closer to 4G: Verizon moves to ‘user trials’ in LTE [June 18]

Major rival AT&T will “… upgrade its 3G network to provide [3.75G] HSPA+ network access to 250 million people by the end of the year. AT&T still plans to begin its LTE roll out in 2011 [Feb 10]” as per:
・Exclusive: The Details on AT&T’s Bridge to LTE [May 17]
・AT&T refreshing backhaul efforts for LTE [June 24]

Other important information:
・Seybold’s Take: Developers need realistic view of LTE data speeds [June 21]
・LTE World Summit Interview Series by James Middleton[May 18 – June 10]
・the actual drivers encouraging carriers to follow the LTE route: Different strokes [25 June]
・Asian 4G developing rapidly but in fragmented pattern [June 2]
・LTE Tutorial – What is LTE? (the rest is quite technical)
・WiBro (Wireless Broadband) on wikipedia: “the South Korean service name for IEEE 802.16e (mobile WiMAX) international standard.”
・IMT-Advanced (4G) Mobile wireless broadband on the anvil
New ITU radio interface standards to revolutionize mobile communication [Oct 21, 2009]

Mobile search SaaS battle

June 28, 2010 9:09 am / 5 Comments on Mobile search SaaS battle

Excellent essay on the subject by Krishna Subramarian on TechCrunch:
Clash of the Titans: The Battle To Become The Mobile Search Leader.

The essence is well summarized in the introduction:

Mobile search is still one of the big unclaimed prizes on the mobile web. Everyone from Google and Yahoo to Apple is going after it, but Microsoft’s Bing may stealthily become the king of the castle by aggressively promoting Bing through mobile apps. Let’s look at each player’s mobile search strategy.

Update: there is a specific battle under formation in China which could significantly alter the worldwide search SaaS battlefield as well
– China Mobile Challenges Baidu With Plans for Online Search [Sept 16] which is making the mobile operators’ position pretty clear by observing that: « The operator joins carriers in the U.S., Europe and Japan in turning to data services to spur earnings as the Chinese phone market saturates. “For China Mobile to get a meaningful contribution from new businesses, they really have to turn into big successes to make a difference, as the company is so big,” said Jim Tang, who rates the stock “neutral” at Shenyin Wanguo Securities in Shanghai. “China Mobile gets about 70 percent of its revenue from voice, and growth is completely flat there.” »
– China Mobile: 4G network coming soon [Sept 15] is stating that “4G data card is close to debut and the carrier and partners are working on the research of 4G handset chip … China Mobile is expected to launch 4G mobile communication services as early as 2011 to boost its high-margin data services, according to the GSM Association.”
– China Mobile to set up device sourcing company [Sept 17] is telling that “The planned device-sourcing company will begin to purchase TD-SCDMA-enabled [3G] feature phones with prices below 1,000 yuan (US$148) at the end of the year and then shift to smartphones [likely with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G] priced below 2,000 yuan in the first half of 2011″.

Background information on this blog:
– 3.9G TD-LTE rollout in 2012 with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G? [July 19, with updates till Sept 17 and beyond]
– OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1 [July 5, with updates till Sept 17 and beyond]

The operator joins carriers in the U.S., Europe and Japan in turning to data services to spur earnings as the Chinese phone market saturates.

“For China Mobile to get a meaningful contribution from new businesses, they really have to turn into big successes to make a difference, as the company is so big,” said Jim Tang, who rates the stock “neutral” at Shenyin Wanguo Securities in Shanghai. “China Mobile gets about 70 percent of its revenue from voice, and growth is completely flat there.”

Microsoft strengths for the PC -> cloud transition

June 27, 2010 6:36 pm / 3 Comments on Microsoft strengths for the PC -> cloud transition

Great interpretations of the recently published Microsoft by the numbers post in TechCrunch: Decoding Microsoft’s Fantastic Passive-Agressive Numbers Post.

To understand the real short-term perspective on Windows 7 and Windows Phone 7 based clients for the cloud read my another news nugget: Intel SoC for Cloud Clients.

To make more sense of all that you could read/watch:

  • Whether tablet PCs can become market segment is still uncertain, says Microsoft VP particularly the quote: “Microsoft will not offer new Windows versions to support non-Intel architectures that are targeting tablet PC development”
  • Steve Guggenheimer: Computex Keynote when quite detailed explanation is needed on what Microsoft is going to do in this whole PC -> cloud transition, mainly from client perspective (although back-end / cloud server perspective has been given at the end as well). Here the kind of leading light quote for everybody is: “We have a tremendous opportunity to deliver the technology that at one point was only on the PC, and the content that at one point was only on the PC, across a much wider range of not PCs, but phones, TVs, and alternative devices.”
  • Regarding the TV opportunity, as an example, there is a just 4 min long excerpt from the video record of the keynote worth to see: COMPUTEX 2010: Guggenheimer Keynote, Windows Embedded Standard.
  • Regarding Microsoft updated, current way of thinking as platform software provider, there is also just a 6 min long excerpt from the video record of the keynote worth to see: COMPUTEX 2010: Guggenheimer Keynote, Platform Software. An essential quote from that: “… the truth of the matter is, technologies converge, but devices don’t. So, all of these devices start to share more and more technology over time, but we actually get more and more devices not less. At the same time we see more and more content going digital, right, we see more and more of the devices starting to move forward.”

So Microsoft’s strategy is to expand his main “Windows for PCs” platform as much as possible both downwards (the tablets/slates being the smallest, mobile devices) and upwards (TVs, larger interactive surfaces for the biggest, stand-alone devices) while continuing to stick to the Intel x86 platform hardware.

Note 1: Microsoft is continuing to support other hardware platforms (mainly ARM) with his, Windows Embedded CE derived, complementary offerings, mainly in the “true” mobility space:

as evidenced by the latest Microsoft Outlines Commitment to the Future of Enterprise Handheld Devices announcement, complementing the already announced Windows Phone 7 (Q4 2010 delivery)

while the next version of Windows Embedded CE, renamed to Windows Embedded Compact 7 (Q4 2010 delivery) will also continue to have the broadest possible appeal, with vision reformulated now as “… to create a device that seamlessly connects with PCs, media, online content, and data. You want to reinvent the way people interact with their devices”. So OEMs/ODMs could work on their own (building their own higher level software) as well, even for the tablet/slate area if they found the non-x86 hardware platform (mainly ARM) better for their offering but want to have Microsoft technologies as much as possible, at the same time.

Note 2: The above mobility strategy picture may confuse my statement about the more general role of Windows Embedded Compact 7. In order to prove the validity of that I am copying here the roadmap for the Windows Embedded Handheld.

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