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Microsoft to lead standards compliance and implementation? … or how Microsoft is aiming to create a radically new Windows client platform via a set of “whole computer capable rich web” standards.

September 20, 2010 2:25 pm / 12 Comments on Microsoft to lead standards compliance and implementation? … or how Microsoft is aiming to create a radically new Windows client platform via a set of “whole computer capable rich web” standards.

This is the question and the final conclusion I came to after studying all the details related to the announcement of Microsoft and Top Sites Celebrate the Beauty of the Web With Internet Explorer 9 Beta Release [Sept 15]. Let’s see the accompanying fact sheet Windows Internet Explorer 9 New Features at a Glance which has the following grouping and the related to my question major statement excerpts about the IE9 Beta (emphasis used within the excerpted text detail is mine):

Hardware-accelerated graphics

As an example of how Internet Explorer 9 takes advantage of the power of the whole computer, the rendering of graphics and text has been moved from the central processing unit (CPU) to the graphics card (the graphics processing unit or GPU), using the Direct2D and DirectWrite sets of Windows application programming interfaces (APIs). Hardware-accelerated text, video and graphics mean that your websites perform like applications installed directly on your Windows-based computer.

New DOM and new JavaScript engine

The newly optimized document object model (DOM) in Internet Explorer 9 provides dramatic speed improvements by interacting more efficiently with Chakra, the new JavaScript engine. Chakra interprets, compiles and executes code in parallel by taking advantage of multiple CPU cores. Although each of these is significant on its own, combining these changes, along with using hardware-accelerated graphics, makes the browser all-around fast.

F12 developer tools

Clean site-centric design makes sites shine and integrates them with Windows 7:

Clean browser user interface Pinned Sites JumpLists Windows Aero Snap for your websites Thumbnail preview controls

Icon overlays Notification Bar New tab page One Box Address Bar Top Result

Feel the confidence and trust that you are in control with Internet Explorer 9:

Download Manager with SmartScreen filter integration Add-on Performance Advisor Hang recovery

Compatibility View Automatic updates Group Policy support

Write interoperable markup with HTML5 and Internet Explorer 9:

Extensive support for HTML5, Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG), Cascading Style Sheets Level 3 (CSS3), ECMAScript5 and DOM provides a new set of capabilities that will help enable developers to write one set of markup and know that it will work and look the same in all modern browsers. Internet Explorer 9 was designed with support for industry standards built in to help ensure that the same markup works the same across browsers.

• HTML5 support. Internet Explorer 9 builds on the work done to implement HTML5 features in Internet Explorer 8, and adds several compelling features. Support for the video and audio elements enables native, hardware-accelerated video and audio content on a Web page without the need for a plug-in. Developers can now insert a video or audio clip onto their page as easily as they do images. Plus, support for the canvas element enables easy and dynamic graphics rendering, all while taking advantage of hardware acceleration through Windows and the graphics card. In addition, support for the selection APIs enables programmatic selection of text on a page, and HTML parsing improvements help make HTML authoring more versatile.

• DOM Level 2 and Level 3. Internet Explorer 9 adds support for more of the Document Object Model Level 2 (DOM L2) and Level 3 (DOM L3), and improves DOM L2 support over existing implementations. These DOM additions are taken from several DOM specifications, including DOM L2 and L3 Core, DOM L2 Views, DOM Element Traversal, DOM L2 and L3 Events, DOM L2 HTML, DOM L2 Style, DOM L2 Traversal and Range, and WebIDL (interactive data language).

• SVG. As the SVG standard has developed, developers have been requesting native support in Internet Explorer, and it is available in Internet Explorer 9. Support for SVG in Internet Explorer 9 enables powerful, attention-grabbing visuals with incredible detail, all without the need for a separate download or plug-in. Like all the graphics, text and media features in Internet Explorer 9, SVG in Internet Explorer 9 takes advantage of hardware-accelerated graphics.

• CSS3. Building on the work that was done in Internet Explorer 8, which is fully compliant with the Cascading Style Sheets Level 2.1 (CSS2.1) specification, Internet Explorer 9 adds support for many components of CSS3, enabling even more flexibility and functionality for Web designers and developers. Internet Explorer 9 introduces features from several CSS3 modules, including the Backgrounds & Borders Module, Color Module, Fonts Module, Media Queries Module, Namespaces Module, Selectors Module, the Values & Units Module, and support for the Web Open Font Format (WOFF).

• ECMAScript 5. The JavaScript implementation in Internet Explorer 9 is enhanced with many features defined by the latest edition of the ECMAScript standard. New ECMAScript 5 features introduce significant improvements to the JavaScript language and increase developer productivity. In addition, the Internet Explorer 9 DOM is designed to natively support ECMAScript 5, providing a consistent and natural programming model for developers when programming the Internet Explorer 9 DOM from JavaScript.

With things like that it is clear that Microsoft is aiming at a radically new Windows client platform creation which is based on the latest “rich web” standards capable of taking advantage of the power of the whole computer. In that sense what has debuted now as Internet Explorer 9 Beta is not less than:

the fist implementation of that new Windows client platform, and also
the live laboratory of platform development alongside with the development of new “rich web” standards.

The final questions are certainly how efficient is the current implementation and how much the latest “rich web” standards are covered by IE9 Beta?

To answer those two question let’s turn to the technology media leaders on the web having the opportunity to analyze the new release not less than week before it has been released by Microsoft:

Engadget Internet Explorer 9 Beta review [Sept 15] concentrated on completely redesigned fuctionality and performance, not advancements in the standards space (btw a pretty complicated issue):

IE9 bested Firefox 3.6 in lots of the tests, but Chrome still won out in them all. … What doesn’t really come through in those benchmarks is the browser’s hardware accelerated graphics. … There isn’t all that much in terms of graphics-heavy HTML5 sites at this point in time and Flash 10.1 already relies on the GPU, but we did try Microsoft’s Test Drive suite of sites in a number of different browsers. The JavaScript-based Amazon Shelf demo … is pretty stunning; on the M11x with the GPU activated, the demo ran at 60fps (about 55fps when we turned a page in a book). With the GPU off, the experience was a bit more sluggish – it ran at 16fps and 9fps when turning a page. … How does that Amazon Shelf demo work in other browsers? Both Chrome 6.0.4 and Firefox 3.6 don’t take advantage of the GPU, so even when it was turned on it notched 6fps. The results were much better in Firefox 4 Beta 5 which is optimized for GPU acceleration — it hit the 60fps mark

ZDNet Internet Explorer 9 beta review: Microsoft reinvents the browser [Sept 15] tried to answer questions readers were typically asking: Is it fast enough? Is it compatible enough? Is it cool enough to win back former IE users who have switched to other browsers, first to Firefox and more recently to Google Chrome? And will this shiny new browser be able to rehabilitate the tarnished Internet Explorer brand? From ZDNet’s review there was again answer only to my performance question (emphasis in the quoted text is again mine):

The single biggest performance boost in IE9 comes from its support for hardware acceleration. Because IE9 runs only on Windows Vista SP2 and Windows 7, it can be tuned to offload some rendering tasks to modern graphics hardware, which often has more raw processing power than the rest of the PC. (Microsoft claims that current browsers use only 10% of a PC’s power, which might be a bit of hyperbole.) It’s clear from daily use, though, that hardware acceleration really does make a difference in rendering text, images, and graphics. As a result, Microsoft finds itself in an unaccustomed position, out in front of other browsers, which are furiously trying to play catch-up.

I tested the IE9 beta alongside Firefox 4 beta 5, which was released in September 2010 and is the first Mozilla offering to support hardware acceleration. I also tested it against the most recent beta of Google Chrome 6, which doesn’t use the GPU for rendering. (Google has reportedly placed that feature on its roadmap for Chrome 7.) … The biggest performance differences, not surprisingly, were apparent on Microsoft’s own graphics-oriented tests at its IE Test Drive site. On the FishIE Tank example, which uses the new HTML5 Canvas tag, here’s how the three browsers compared: … IE9’s frame rates stayed high as I kicked up the number of animated fish in the virtual tank. Performance remained smooth and glitch-free even when I moved the window across multiple monitors and docked it to the side of the display using Aero Snap. Firefox 4, by contrast, was able maintain high frame rates for short bursts, but moving the browser frame caused performance to plummet and even froze the display for long periods. Using Firefox, frame rates plummeted dramatically when I selected the most demanding settings (500 and 1000 fish). …

For a more independent performance test, I enabled all three browsers for YouTube’s HTML5 channel and tried playing a handful of high-definition videos at 720p and 1080p resolution. All three browsers performed admirably within a window and at full-screen resolution. IE9 and Chrome 6 were able to maintain full-fidelity playback even when tearing a tab out of the browser pane and dragging it to its own window. Firefox 4, on the other hand, failed this test, stopping the playback and starting the clip over when it landed in a new window.

The other new performance-enhancing component in IE9 is the new Chakra JavaScript engine, … ran the SunSpider benchmark using only the most recent beta releases of IE9, Firefox, and Chrome. The difference between each browser is only about one-tenth of a second, and that composite result includes dozens of complex operations. The independent JSBenchmark test produced similar results, with the IE9 beta running 21% faster than the latest Firefox 4 beta but 29% slower than the latest test build of Google Chrome 6. The conclusion? JavaScript performance isn’t a significant differentiator between modern browsers, and IE9 can hold its own with any Webkit-based browser on this score.

Based on these two indepedendent reviews (and a lot of others with similar findings) I can conclude that performance-wise Microsoft is on track to create the radically new Windows client platform. From the point of view of upcoming “rich-web” standards, however, I should do my own investigation. That will come in the next post in this blog.

Microsoft going multiplatform?

September 17, 2010 11:32 pm / 6 Comments on Microsoft going multiplatform?

Microsoft Has No Plans To Make Another Smartphone, Exec Says [Sept 16] wrote The Wall Street Journal yesterday. Is it big news? Some say so. Wired’s reaction to the internals of that article is the most notable one: Microsoft’s New Mobile Strategy: Software for Every Platform [Sept 17].

Microsoft’s Tivanka Ellawala told the WSJ that the company’s done with smartphone hardware (beyond in-house prototypes, presumably): “We are in the software business and that is where our business will be focused,” he said. That means no follow-ups to the Kin social media smartphone, definitely; no resuscitation of the Courier e-reader/tablet project, probably; and a new focus on making apps for other platforms, quite possibly.

Then there is a reference to “Microsoft blogger Paul Thurrott confirmed the rumors on Twitter”:

Shhh…. It’s true: Microsoft is working on iPad apps. [Paul Thurrot is a Penton Media technology analyst creating all the content of the SuperSite for Windows]

By the rumors it is meant what has been written in the WSJ blogpost as:

He [Tivanka Ellawala ] made the remark in response to a question about rumors that the Redmond, Wash.-based behemoth is working on a new phone.

So we should still get more information, rumors or otherwise, to accept Wired’s interpretation which essentially means that Microsoft is becoming a multiplatform software vendor.

Until we have that further information we should collect the already existing evidence indicating such a direction for Microsoft:

1. Market neccessity. The Wall Street Journal is coming again handy with the news that Retailers Turn to Gadgets — Best Buy, Others Stock Up on Handhelds for Holidays as TVs, PCs Lose Luster [Sept 14]:

The new priorities are plainly evident in the changing strategy of Best Buy Co., the nation’s largest electronics retailer by revenue, which is now morphing into a mobile gadget specialist after decades of promoting the latest in big-screen televisions, desktop computers and high-fidelity stereos. Best Buy … said it will showcase devices such as Apple Inc.’s iPad tablet computer and Amazon.com Inc’s Kindle e-reader* this holiday season. … internal estimates showed that the iPad had cannibalized sales from laptop PCs by as much as 50%.

Note on the Kindle (*): This is showing perfectly well the reality that iPad is not cannibalizing single-purpose e-reader sales, so the FUD described in my Undermining E-Ink and single-purpose E-readers [Aug 23, updated till Sept 17 and beyond] could have very little effect on the market.

Subsequently Engadget has relayed these news as iPad has halved laptop sales, claims Best Buy CEO [Sept 17], while Wired went as far as declaring Best Buy Chief: iPad Cannibalizes Laptop Sales by 50% [Sept 17].

2. Microsoft has already a well developed “multiplatform” strategy for its Software + Services approach. Look at their latest summary of Microsoft cloud computing & cloud services – So much more than just BPOS [Aug 23]. Microsoft Office Web Apps and Windows Live Essentials are the most visible manifestations of the AJAX multiplatform technology underlying these applications. We know only – in fact for almost two years already – that a C# to JavaScript tool, called Script# is an essential part of that. And there are continuous improvements in both set of applications, see the MSDN blog of the Microsoft Office Web Apps team, as well as the Inside Windows Live and the Windows Live for Developers blogs.

While the current Office Web Apps (an only 2:37 long video) has much more functionality than the current Office Mobile version we should understand that the highly portable AJAX code beneath Office Web Apps could relatively easily be tweaked for any strategic smartphone or media tablet/pad platform.

3. The current Windows 7 platform will stay with x86 only as has been shown in my posts here: Microsoft strengths for the PC -> cloud transition [June 27] and Windows slates in the coming months? Not much seen yet [July 13]. At the same time there are a number of indications that the next Windows 8 platform might extend to the ARM architectures as well. All the speculations are based on the fact that Microsoft Licenses ARM Architecture [July 23]. Interpretations are abound. See: New Microsoft, ARM licensing agreement; Could a Windows Phone tablet be coming? [July 23 with updates], or a digest of several of them: What can Microsoft do with ARM chips? [July 23].

4. Internet Explorer will be even more closely tied to the Windows platform, so Microsoft’s browser will not become multiplatform as per Sinofsky on IE9, Windows Live, and more (Q&A) [Sept 16]:

Browsing is the thing that a lot of people do, obviously. What we really wanted to make sure of is that when you get Windows you get the very, very best browsing experience, period. Among all the people who make browsers, we’re uniquely committed to doing a great job for Windows, which is the platform that the vast majority of people use when they are browsing.

We think there is something there and that you shouldn’t be constrained by a least common denominator across operating systems.

It’s a fact that we are not encumbered by trying to do browsers on all of the operating systems that have very small numbers of users. Other people can do that and that’s great, but with that come a set of decisions and a set of hard challenges.

And Windows Live is an essential extension of that:

We think that the combination of Windows plus Windows Live–and of course with the latest Internet Explorer–offers what we think of a complete Windows experience. It connects Windows up with services that you care about and it also provides rich experiences for photos, for movies, and for Messenger. There’s some really exciting and innovative things in it and they also tap into the power of hardware. Movie Maker and Photo Gallery are all hardware accelerated and do a really great job using accelerated video and accelerated graphics in general. It’s that whole complete experience. It’s the things we have been doing in the very immediate term with Windows Live–connecting it up to Facebook and over 100 service providers.

5. In the broad “productivity solutions” space Microsoft is already going multiplatform: Microsoft and Nokia form global alliance to design, develop and market mobile productivity solutions [Aug 12]

… the two companies will begin collaborating immediately on the design, development and marketing of productivity solutions for the mobile professional, bringing Microsoft Office Mobile and Microsoft business communications, collaboration and device management software to Nokia’s Symbian devices. These solutions will be available for a broad range of Nokia smartphones starting with the company’s business-optimized range, Nokia Eseries.

… Next year, Nokia intends to start shipping Microsoft Office Communicator Mobile on its smartphones, followed by other Office applications and related software and services in the future. These will include:
– The ability to view, edit, create and share Office documents on more devices in more places with mobile-optimized versions of Microsoft Word, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Excel and Microsoft OneNote
– Enterprise instant messaging and presence, and optimized conferencing and collaboration experience with Microsoft Office Communicator Mobile
– Mobile access to intranet and extranet portals built on Microsoft SharePoint Server
– Enterprise device management withMicrosoft System Center

Since just a week ago the Microsoft executive in charge of this alliance changed the seats and became Nokia’s new CEO – see: Stephen Elop to join Nokia as President and CEO [Sept 10] – this agreement will not only be carried out in the full but also might significantly be extended in the future. See also a good summary of that turn of events: Will Microsoft And Nokia Team Up To Take On Apple, Google? [Sept 15].

Conclusion: as one could see from the above 5 points Microsoft is already multiplatform or at least multiplatform capable in a number of key application segments, while in the core Windows segment it might become multiplatfrom with the next Windows 8 version.

Be aware of mainland China and Taiwan stronger manufacturing links in ICT

September 2, 2010 12:35 pm / 2 Comments on Be aware of mainland China and Taiwan stronger manufacturing links in ICT

A current article from Knowledge@Wharton is drawing our attention to the fact that mainland China and Taiwan are fast becoming essentially one in the important ICT sector, and this will further increase their global influence. See: Computer Compatriots: Taiwan and China Draw Economically Closer [Sept 1]

We are talking here about things like the already existing fact that more than 90% of notebook and netbook computers manufactured worldwide are from the combined manufacturing bases of Taiwan and mainland China. Things like that will be significantly increased in the future due to the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) that Taiwan and China signed in June.
Important updates:
– ECFA to Further Drive China`s Procurements in Taiwan [Jan 5, 2011]: “Last year China organized 13 official buy-Taiwan groups, which together purchased products worth about US$20 billion. This year the projected groups may focus their purchases of 539 duty-free items as on the ECFA fast-track gainer list. The first group to arrive in 2011 will be from Liaoning, said to be led by provincial governor Chen Zhenggao and slated to arrive in Taiwan in mid-February.”
– Taiwanese Banks Lend Over US$31 B. to Clients in China [Oct 11]: “Some say that large enterprises in Taiwan borrow from domestic banks and then transfer part of the loan to affiliates in China. So, including such transferred loans, China would have borrowed more than NT$1 trillion or US$31.25 billion from Taiwan. However, some say that the value is unknown for the exact amount of loans flowing to Taiwanese firms in China through their parent companies in Taiwan is not tallied.”
– ECFA to Bring Strong Boost to Taiwan`s Economy [Sept 21]: “In its initial period, ECFA calls for the removal of tariffs on more than 800 items on an “early-harvest” list in three stages over a two-year period. The list includes 530 items included at Taiwan’s request (worth an annual US$13.8 billion in shipments to China) and 267 items included at China`s request (worth an annual US$2.86 billion in shipments to Taiwan). ECFA will also further open up cross-straits financial dealings. … Given Taiwan`s growing dependence on the Chinese market, the institutionalization of economic relations across the Taiwan Straits is vital to the continued development of the island`s economy.”
– Cross-Strait Investment Protection Agreement May Be Signed by Year End [Sept 17] — With cross-Taiwan Strait Economic Cooperation Agreement (ECFA) having taken effect, Taiwan and China can start talk on investment protection agreement.
– Taiwan should emulate investment strategies of local governments in China, says Acer founder [Sept 29]: “The Taiwan government has been encouraging international enterprises to set up regional headquarters and R&D centers in Taiwan for a while, but has said more than it has actually done for incentives it offered and promises made. … Shih also recommended that Taiwan-based manufacturers shift some of their resources to own-brand business operations and those related to proprietary intellectual property so as to avoid price competition.”

ECFA is prompting both sides to capitalise on this opportunity. Only the Taiwanese interest is, certainly, well manifested in the public media:
– Ministry [of Economic Affairs in Taiwan] works to attract major ICT and auto firms [July 4]
– Ma expects Taiwan to become a regional trade hub after ECFA [Aug 18]

This is all despite of the current political and economic interests, ties:
– Inconvenient impacts of Taiwan-PRC ECFA [Aug 5]

3d Parties are aiming to capitalise on the opportunity as well, which could only enhance the role of new mainland China and Taiwan cooperation further:
– Beyond Geopolitics – The Case for a Free Trade Accord between Europe and Taiwan [July 8, 70 pages]
– ECFA could open way for EU-Taiwan FTA [July 8]
– ECFA could be Taiwan’s window for trade deals: [a European] think tank [July 29]
– Israel welcomes ECFA as good for business [Aug 26]

Keep in mind, however, that ECFA is quite controversial from general social and public interest point of view. There are even some unexpected contradictions for outside observers unaware of the peculiarities of the “internal” situation. To demonstrate that, here is a notable exerpt from Taiwan: Let’s go poking around under the rock of ECFA [Aug 24] blog post, written after the Legislation Yuan of Taiwan approved the ECFA agreement on August 17:

After Hong Kong signed CEPA, it has become the city with the largest wealth inequality in the world. We don’t want an ECFA that let the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Some general background information on the “players” and the “play” (not ECFA in particular):

– Taiwan: About Taiwan [April 11, 2008]

Over the past 20 years, Taiwan has become the world’s fourth largest ICT (Information and Communication Technology) hardware producer and holds #1 ranking WW ICT product market share with more than 10 particular products (e.g. Notebook PC, Desktop PC, Computer Motherboard, Computer Server, CDT monitor, LCD monitor, Optical Disk Drive, Digital Still Camera, WLAN, Mobile Phone, and PDA etc.) By estimation, 75% of PCs installed in the world with Windows OS are produced by Taiwanese IT companies. Today, the entire production base has mostly migrated to mainland China due to low cost in labor and land factors. However, the Taiwanese entrepreneurs are dominating at least 75% of the ICT hardware production value produced in the PRC (People’s Republic of China). Impressively, Taiwan is also the fourth largest semiconductor industry in the world. Naturally, Taiwan is a major procurement center (One-Stop-Shopping) for global ICT companies.

– Taiwan [from wikipedia]
– Distinctive Characteristics of China’s Path of ICT Development: A Critical Analysis of Chinese Developmental Strategies in Light of the Eastern Asian Model [May 12, 2008]
– Adapting to the China Challenge: Lessons from experienced multinationals [Sept 20, 2007]
– Sons of The Yellow Emperor Go Online: The State of the Chinese Digital Diaspora [July 2, 2010]

SoC advances for client, server and mobile basestation level

August 25, 2010 10:48 am / 1 Comment on SoC advances for client, server and mobile basestation level

Hot Chips 22 (for now, later at Archives) has shown for the first time that System-on-Chip (SoC) technologies are moving beyond their usual realm of relatively small performance and/or dedicated applications, right into the leading edge mainstream.

Update #2:
– Acer adopts AMD CPU for tablet PCs [Nov 25]

Among Acer’s announced initial batch of tablet PCs, a 10.1-inch Windows 7-based model is believed to use AMD’s Ontario APU codenamed C-50, according to sources from notebook players.

… The dual-core C-50 APU, which consumes only 9W of power, is currently priced at about US$55-60 and includes an integrated Radeon HD 6250 graphics chip [and also UVD dedicated hardware acceleration for HD video including 1080p resolutions, see later].

– Live and interact in total mobility — Tablets according to Acer [Nov 23]:

… support of its goal to simplify content consumption – a strategy which began with the development of Acer’s multimedia sharing system, Clear.fi. Acer’s strategy is based on the concept of sharing multimedia content and enjoying it across any device, and Tablets are ideal devices for this purpose.

A 10.1” Android tablet for a superb mobile and home entertainment experience … Designed for HD entertainment, this tablet comes with a high resolution, high color contrast display, allowing you to play or share HD video with your friends wherever you are. … Available April 2011

7” Android Tablet: the epitome of mobility … On the 7” (1280×800) 16:10 aspect ratio full touch screen, you can enjoy games, photos, videos while keeping up with your emails or your favourite social networks. Video chat or record a video with the front-facing HD camera. With HDMI support, hooking it up for a big screen video experience is easyier than ever! … Available April 2011

10.1” Windows Tablet: Versatility in a tablet form factor … an extremely innovative solution that combines touch screen user-friendliness with the comfortable experience of a physical keyboard. In fact, the tablet comes with a docking device that includes a full-size keyboard and more connectivity options to enhance the user experience. … Thin and light (only 15 mm and less than 1kg), and with a 10.1”, high resolution display, it’s easy to carry around and really unobtrusive. This tablet ensures outstanding entertainment and a superior touch experience. … Available February 2011

– Acer debuts 10.1-inch Windows 7 tablet: AMD-powered, inbuilt 3G, coming February 2011 [Nov 23]

Update #1: AMD’s upcoming SoCs first described on Hot Chips 22 are hybrid CPUs/GPUs called by AMD Accelerated Processing Units (APUs)
– AMD Benchmarks Zacate APU [Sept 13]:

… the parts that will begin shipping in Q4 2010: Zacate for mainstream notebooks (18W TDP) and Ontario for netbooks (9W TDP).

Both APUs will have a pair of low-power Bobcat cores and an AMD DX11 GPU. AMD isn’t publicly confirming how many cores the GPU side will have but both will share the same die manufactured on TSMC’s 40nm process.

AMD’s 9W Ontario part clearly goes after Atom in the netbook space (and Bobcat’s out-of-order architecture should ensure performance success), Zacate is going to go after the ~$500 mainstream notebook market. To prove its point AMD setup a Core i5 notebook and a Zacate test platform running City of Heroes at the same settings …

– AMD’s Zacate APU Performance Update [Sept 15]:

… AMD gave us full access to the Zacate platform to do whatever we wanted. AMD wanted us to be completely comfortable with the Zacate comparison. We downloaded the Batman Arkham Asylum demo off of Steam and loaded it on both the Zacate and Core i5 systems.

… The actual gameplay was noticeably quicker on Zacate and the numbers show a 45% performance advantage. This is huge. To sanity check that data we fired up City of Heroes on both machines and played around with them. … On average we saw a 55% improvement over the Core i5 system. … AMD wanted to highlight the DirectCompute performance of Zacate and let us publish the first results from the platform running the N-Body Simulation benchmark: 23 GFLOPS on Zacate and 8.8 GFLOPS on Intel Core i5-520M.

… At the end of the day my take on Zacate (and Ontario) hasn’t changed: these two APUs have the potential to make the low end netbook/notebook market interesting again.

The most glaring examples of the learnings on the Hot Chips 22 were:

Lifting the veil on the hybrid processor-graphics chip in the new Xbox 360 [Aug 23]. This SoC technology has enabled the new Xbox 360 S device’s power consumption and noise significantly reduced, not to speak of the price, which is now $200 for a 4GB version. Because of this Microsoft’s new Xbox 360 S [is a] smash hit, although some are questioning the durability of this trend, attributing it rather to previous Xbox replacements and expecting the bigger trend of the video game industry being down to come into play later. See: Xbox 360 Sales Surge, but Is It an Anomaly? [Aug 16].

AMD Discloses Bobcat & Bulldozer Architectures at Hot Chips 2010 [Aug 24]. These are brand new architecture cores which soon will be integrated into different SoCs, with sub 1 W Bobcat coming into the Ontario SoC (with a yet undisclosed GPU core) aimed at netbooks, ultra-low voltage tablet (slate etc.) and notebook devices the earliest. This might happen by the end of the year, or in Q1 2011.
More information:
– AMD update from IFA 2010 [Sept 6]:

AMD plans to ramp production here in 2010, with systems available in early 2011. So here at IFA 2010, we’re both demonstrating the capabilities of low-power AMD Fusion APUs, and providing a little more information on the individual products. “Brazos” is the codename for the notebook, netbook and desktop platforms that will be built from the APU. But the APU itself comes in two flavors based on performance and (low) power draw:

An 18-watt TDP APU codenamed “Zacate” for ultrathin, mainstream, and value notebooks as well as desktops and all-in-ones.

And a 9-watt APU codenamed “Ontario” for netbooks and small form factor desktops and devices.

Both low-power APU versions feature two “Bobcat” x86 cores and fully support DirectX11, DirectCompute (Microsoft programming interface for GPU computing) and OpenCL (cross-platform programming interface standard for multi-core x86 and accelerated GPU computing). Both also include UVD dedicated hardware acceleration for HD video including 1080p resolutions.

– AMD’s Bobcat mobile architecture will play it straight [Aug 27]: “Bobcat will smoke Atom clock-for-clock in raw performance, but the performance per watt picture is a bit less clear. This is because it is quite apparent that AMD will have a harder time keeping its power consumption down than Intel does with Atom. … Bobcat is more of a threat to Atom in the netbook and laptop segments than it is in the kinds of appliance-type niches that Intel is now aiming its Atom-based SoCs at. And nobody is going to try to squeeze Bobcat into a smartphone form factor anytime soon”.
– AMD Bobcat & Bulldozer Hot Chips Presentations Online [Aug 25],
– AMD Sets New Mark in x86 Innovation with First Detailed Disclosures of Two New Core Designs [AMD press release, Aug 24],
– AMD Bulldozer and Bobcat Hot Chips Press Kit [Aug 24]
– ”Bulldozer” 20 Questions, Round One [AMD, Aug 23]
– Keeping AMD’s 2011 Code-Names Straight [Aug 24]
– AMD’s Bulldozer Architecture Preview: New from the Ground Up [Aug 24]
– AMD Heats VISION – Hot Chips 22 [Aug 24]

Mindspeed to Present Next Generation of 4G Base Station Technology at HOT CHIPS 22 Conference [Mindspeed press release, Aug 23]. Here the essence is:

“3G and 4G network operators are looking to migrate to a more flexible cellular landscape, which can accommodate compact base stations, such as microcells, picocells and metro femtocells. Mindspeed has designed the Transcede family of baseband processors to enable tomorrow’s network architects to deploy powerful 4G macrocells and ‘small cells,’ which are built on a common framework.”

Launched earlier this year at the 2010 Mobile World Congress trade show in Barcelona, Spain, the Transcede family of SoCs integrates an unprecedented 26 programmable processors into a single device, including two ARM^(R) Cortex A9^(R) multi-core symmetric multiprocessing (SMP) reduced instruction set computer (RISC) processors, ten CEVA^(R) digital signal processors (DSPs) and ten DSP accelerators that support the complete wideband code-division multiple access (W-CDMA), LTE or WiMAX (Layers 1, 2 and above) processing needs of single- and multi-sector base stations.

More information:
– Transcede 4000 Series Product Brief [Jan 24]
– Documentation

Undermining E-Ink and single-purpose E-readers

August 23, 2010 1:16 pm / 3 Comments on Undermining E-Ink and single-purpose E-readers

The Mobile Broadband reality by Akamai

July 29, 2010 9:02 pm / 1 Comment on The Mobile Broadband reality by Akamai

Akamai, the leading CDN, has just released Q1 2010 report on the state of the Internet [July 23] which contains quite interesting actual information on average and average maximum connection speeds from 109 mobile carriers around the world. Only networks where Akamai believes that the entire system is mobile were included.

Note: Akamai defines these speeds as follows:

The “average maximum connection speed” metric represents an average of the maximum measured connection speeds across all of the unique IP addresses seen by Akamai from a particular geography. The average is used in order to mitigate the impact of unrepresentative maximum measured connection speeds. In contrast to the average measured connection speed, the average maximum connection speed metric is more representative of what many end-user Internet connections are capable of. (This includes the application of so-called speed boosting technologies that may be implemented within the network by providers, in order to deliver faster download speeds for some larger files.)

Akamai considers a provider having broadband level service when the average connection speed is more than 2 Mbps. From this point of view it is quite interesting that the countries mentioned as being in the forefront of 3.75G (HSPA+) and 3.9G (LTE) implementation (see: “4G” WiMAX vs. 3.75G HSPA+ [July 24] and WiMAX/WiBro <=> TD-LTE and LTE in general [June 28]) had in Q1 much less than that “broadband level” average connection speeds. Moreover, out of 7 results 6 are somewhat lower than 1 Mbps and only one is somewhat higher than 1 Mbps:

Country	Provider	Average (Kbps)	Maximum Average (Kbps)
Japan	JP-1	946	4180
Norway	ND-1	867	3121
	ND-2	867	3121
	ND-2	1186	3875
United States	US-1	846	1912
	US-2	829	2103
	US-3	979	2496

Please note that Akamai is not providing the names of providers. Considering their “mobile only” rule for inclusion it is obvious that Japan’s one entry could very likely be NTT DOCOMO (because it is the largest), as well as that one Norway’s two entries could probably be Telenor. At the same time it is quite obvious that TeliaSonera is definitely missing here since there is no entry for Sweden (and also because TeliaSonera is not a “mobile only” company). On the other hand it is quite obvious that Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile US could well be one of the three US “mobile only” operators included into the Akamai report. (Note: Akamai has included only 3 operators when in a country were more than that.)

It is also interesting to compare these countries in the forefront of 3.75G-3.9G to less well developed countries. I’ve chosen for that the so called Eastern European countries and added to them Austria being in quite close geographic proximity. In addition marked those which were above the numbers of “forefront countries’” with red-ink. As one could see there are quite a few cases when the numbers are higher.

Country	Provider	Average (Kbps)	Maximum Average (Kbps)
Austria	AT-1	2553	10769
	AT-2	1886	6292
Croatia	HR-1	931	3567
Czech Republic	CZ-1	626	2588
	CZ-2	415	2024
	CZ-3	1320	3561
Estonia	EE-1	611	2775
Hungary	HU-1	1145	5315
	HU-2	1280	5037
Lithuania	LT-1	1203	5516
	LT-2	760	3205
Moldova	MD-1	730	2858
	MD-2	1269	4907
Poland	PL-1	3444	10298
	PL-2	750	2947
	PL-3	508	2637
Romania	RO-1	375	1899
Russia	RU-1	4248	13686
	RU-2	586	1933
	RU-3	498	1570
Slovakia	SK-1	105	418
	SK-2	2225	6112
	SK-3	7175	20394
Slovenia	Sl-1	1074	5514
Ukraine	UA-1	175	569

Akamai has noted this as well when doing worldwide evaluation of the results when one Slovak provider (SK-3) came atop (they have excluded the UK-3 provider having the highest result “due to their suspected usage of a mobile gateway architecture, which inflated their calculated per IP address usage”). Akamai has made the following remark related to that:

However, it must be noted that a number of mobile network providers make heavy use of mobile gateways and proxies that will result in higher average and average maximum speeds being calculated by Akamai, as these speeds reflect gateway/proxy-to-Akamai communications rather than mobile device-to-Akamai communications. (These top providers may be making use of such an architecture.) Akamai is investigating methods of mitigating the impact of these gateways/proxies on the source data sets that will be used for future editions of the State of the Internet report.

Let’s see the what kind of networks those Eastern European providers have:

• Austria: 1 with HSPA+ @ 42 Mbps, 1 with HSPA+ @ 21Mbps, 2 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps (all with HSUPA)
• Croatia: 1 with HSPA+ @ 21Mbps, 1 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps, 1 with HSDPA @ 1.8 Mbps (the first two with HSUPA)
• Czech Republic: 1 with HSPA @ 14.4 Mbps, 2 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps (two with HSUPA)
• Estonia: 2 with HSPA+ @ 21Mbps, 2 with 1 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps (the first two with HSUPA)
• Hungary: 1 with HSPA @ 14.4 Mbps, 1 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps (all three with HSUPA)
• Lithuania: 3 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps (tw0 with HSUPA)
• Moldova: 1 with HSPA+ @ 21Mbps, 1 with HSPA @ 14.4 Mbps, 1 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps (the first one with HSUPA)
• Poland: 3 with HSPA+ @ 21Mbps, 2 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps (four with HSUPA)
• Romania: 2 with HSPA+ @ 21Mbps, 2 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps (three with HSUPA)
• Russia: 1 with HDSPA @ 7.2 Mbps, 1 with HDSPA @ 3.6 Mbps, 1 with HDSPA @ 1.8 Mbps (none with HSUPA)
• Slovakia: 2 with HDSPA @ 1.8 Mbps (one with HSUPA)
• Slovenia: 1 with HSPA @ 7.2 Mbps, 1 with HDSPA @ 3.6 Mbps, 1 with HDSPA @ 1.8 Mbps (the first one with HSUPA)
• Ukraine: 1 with HDSPA @ 3.6 Mbps
Source: HSPA Operator Commitments survey by GSA [June 30] (registration required)

Please note that only those marked with red-ink have mobile technologies which might explain their (sometimes much) better results.

Final conclusion? Only one I could draw from this: the current networks of “forefront countries” should indeed be more congested than some of the mobile networks of even Eastern European countries. This means that they should indeed be in the forefront of 3.75G and 3.9G adoption!

SAP’s Business ByDesign SaaS to be relaunched on July 31 with mobility as one of key attractions

July 28, 2010 12:46 am / 2 Comments on SAP’s Business ByDesign SaaS to be relaunched on July 31 with mobility as one of key attractions

Yesterday’s Q2 financial report from SAP specifically mentions the expansion it made in the volume business as well as the progress in the small and midsized enterprise (SME) segment:

… said Jim Hagemann Snabe, Co-CEO of SAP. “Our success in the SME segment creates a strong foundation for the new version of our on-demand platform SAP Business ByDesign. The new version will be available on time on July 31st and is ready for volume deployment in six countries.”

The company provided a quite interesting video as well: SAP Business ByDesign Goes Mobile [July 26]. “Get an exclusive first look at the latest SAP Business ByDesign software, running on mobile devices such as iPad, iPhone, and BlackBerry. The software will be available in 2011.” There is also a related blog-entry from SAP TV: Exclusive: See what’s coming 2011 – Behind the scenes with a SAP developer [July 27]

In a later video interview given to CNBC (see SAP CEO on Earnings [July 27]) Bill McDermott, Co-CEO of SAP, was describing his company’s outlook as follows:

[2:30] Others have consolidated legacy markets to downsize companies and leverage margin. In the short-term that’s a viable shareholder strategy, no question about it. We believe in organic growth, we believe that customers will run their business with on-premise enterprise applications, they’ll run them on-demand in the cloud, using in-memory technology with real-time analytics, and they’ll run their business on-device.

[3:00] The vision that we have is to connect the virtual boardroom to the shopfloor worker, so on an end-to-end process basis companies are run better, and they are actually managed by exception. So all these knowledge workers that are interned to the desktop can actually make decisions in real-time. So Sybase got us into a new category which is the mobile. I believe to be the new desktop. If you look at markets like China, as an example, three quarters of their knowledge workers have bypassed the desktop and gone right to the mobile.

[3:31] So we are all about innovation. We will let others have their short-term games on the margin. We think customers will appreciate that in the long run, and shareholders too. [3:41]

Mobility has indeed been the major reason why SAP has recently acquired Sybase for approximately $5.8 billion. Other reasons were being very strong in analytics and certainly its traditional database business. See: SAP to acquire Sybase Inc. [May 12]

Strategic Move to Accelerate the Reach of SAP® Solutions across Mobile Platforms, Help Companies Manage and Analyze Business Information and Processes on Any Device

… SAP will accelerate the reach of its solutions across mobile platforms and drive forward the realization of its in-memory computing vision. … For Sybase, SAP in-memory technology will provide the opportunity for dramatic performance improvements to its analytic processing capabilities. Sybase will also be able to bring its complex event processing and analytics expertise, which was built in the financial sector, to customers in other industries, markets and product areas …

“Mobile devices are becoming the preferred interaction point with business applications, whether the user is a factory supervisor, a retail manager or an entrepreneur in a developing nation,” said Jim Hagemann Snabe, co-CEO of SAP and member of the SAP Executive Board. “The combination of SAP and Sybase will give users the option of running their operations from leading mobile devices … In addition, innovation around Sybase’s established database business will pave the way for ‘real’ real-time analytics and finally remove the decade-old barrier between business applications and business intelligence.”

… John Chen, CEO of Sybase, Inc. “… by combining the market leader in enterprise applications with the market leader in enterprise mobility, companies around the world will be able to run their business from many devices. This will drive a new wave of enterprise productivity. … ”

As a new, to be operating as a separate subsidiary of SAP, Sybase has announced a much strengthened mobility offering almost immediately. See: Sybase Introduces Industry’s First Mobility Platform Empowering Enterprises to Better Enable Employees and Engage Customers in New and Innovative Mobile Ways [May 20]

The Sybase Mobility Platform is comprised of the most comprehensive new and industry-proven solutions, including:

Sybase Mobile Servers including Sybase Unwired Platform (SUP) development, Sybase® Afaria® Device Management Suite, Sybase iAnywhere® Mobile Office and SQL Anywhere®;

Mobile Applications, including Sybase Mobile Sales for SAP CRM, Sybase Mobile Workflow for SAP Business Suite and Sybase mBanking 365®; and

Sybase Mobile Services – mCommerce Services : for both developed and emerging markets, Enterprise Services: flexible, high-performance applications and services for mobile marketing and mobile CRM, Operator Services: including unrivalled global reach to 900 mobile operators.

Sybase® Mobile Sales for SAP CRM and Sybase® Mobile Workflow for SAP Business Suite have also earned Sybase an SAP award in the “Technology Innovator of the Year” category. See: Sybase Awarded 2010 SAP® Pinnacle Award [May 20]. These applications, by the way, have been jointly announced well before the acquisition. See: SAP and Sybase Deliver First Set of Applications to Millions of Mobile Workers Worldwide [March 2]

… The population of mobile workers and the number of personally owned devices entering the enterprise is growing exponentially. According to industry analyst group IDC, “The worldwide mobile worker population is set to increase from 919.4 million in 2008, accounting for 29% of the worldwide workforce, to 1.19 billion in 2013, accounting for 34.9% of the workforce.” …

Sybase® Mobile Sales for SAP CRM automates sales processes, increases productivity and enhances customer service by equipping sales professionals with anywhere, anytime access to SAP CRM 2007 through smartphones such as iPhones and Windows Mobile devices.

Sybase® Mobile Workflow for SAP Business Suite enables mobile workers to complete business processes — such as workflow items and alerts, time recording and travel requests that require immediate action — through a familiar and secure email inbox.

CNBC’s earlier Why Sybase? [May 17] interview with Bill McDermott has given more insight on whether the mobilization of business is to propel [this] M&A:

[1:31] The main reason for acquiring Sybase was one, mobility. They are the #1 mobile infrastructure company in the world. We want to move our applications to mobile devices. #2 – they are very strong in analytics. So we were already #1 in the world in analytics, and they approach industries such as financial services and public services. And they are growing very fast, and in quick markets like China, where China has bypassed the PC generation and gone right to the mobile. The 3d reason is the database where they have a very strong core business. We believe that in-memory computing combined with their core business will give the customer just an at-a-site-solution that currently does not exist on the market from any vendor. So for all three reasons we felt this was a breakthrough to have that asset. [2:18]

[2:32] We believe very heavily that our strategy was reliant on mobility. … We participate now in a 10 billion market. We wanted to be in a 220 billion market, and to do that you had to get in-memory, you had to get mobile, and you had to get on-demand. Sybase itself touches all three priorities. [2:53]

Note: One can put here indeed press releases that prove Sybase strengths in the #1 and #2 areas. For simplicity I am just giving here the ones that are also related to the China market:

Sybase Mobile and Data Management Solutions Honored at Annual China IT Users Conference [Dec 18, 2006]
China IT User Community Selects Sybase’s ASE, SQL Anywhere and Business Intelligence Solutions for Four Top Awards
Sybase Solidifies Leadership in China’s Financial Market with US$5 million Agricultural Bank of China Deployment [July 30, 2007]
Sybase IQ Analytics Server Chosen to Support a Leading Chinese Commercial Bank’s Nationwide Information System
Sybase IQ Analytics Server Powers Major Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company in China [July 30, 2007]
Sybase Appointed as Sole Analytics Infrastructure Provider for One of China’s Largest Business Intelligence Projects

Back to the Business ByDesign SaaS! The new customer-centric innovations in the Business ByDesign solution have already been announced and demonstrated at SAPPHIRE® NOW event this year. See: New Release of SAP® Business ByDesign™ Gives Customers In-Memory Analytics, Support for Mobile Devices, and Customizable User Interfaces [May 17]. Of the new attractions mentioned in this headline one needs to mention the incorporation of Microsoft Silverlight technology into the front end. The rest is quite well understandable from the things detailed above.

One innovation mentioned just in the internal text of the press release, however, needs to be mentioned as a key attraction as well:

Single and multi-tenancy support. Customers can now choose either single or multi-tenant topologies as the solution is fully enabled to support both. Other than traditional on-demand offerings, SAP’s multi tenancy concept has been engineered for customer and partner specific business extensions, business configuration and all kind of UI, report and forms flexibility. It leverages SAP’s proven life cycle management system protecting all changes during upgrades. During the planning and engineering phases towards multi-tenancy, SAP collaborated with Intel to create an infrastructure optimized for the massively scalable ‘cloud computing’ environment of SAP Business ByDesign. The Intel® Xeon® Processor is the reference platform for SAP Business ByDesign deployments. The scalability and efficiency of Intel Xeon processors with the Next-Generation Intel® Microarchitecture will enable SAP to achieve even lower TCO for the solution’s infrastructure by delivering equal business capability with a smaller server and carbon footprint, significantly lowering energy consumption compared to previous generation processors.

The reason for full inclusion of that part is quite simple. That single functionality has been missing from this SaaS product and that was one of the major reason why SAP has not been able to enter the SaaS market in a big way so far. Another one has been the clash of its old and new (i.e. on-demand) business models. Here is some earlier information on that:

SAP’s [the CEO] Apotheker: Business ByDesign costs led to delay [May 5, 2008]:

“What we did discover in the last five or six months is that while we made progress on our TCO model we’re not where we wanted to be (a 10 times TCO reduction),” says Apotheker, in a meeting with a group of Enterprise Irregulars Monday at SAP’s Sapphire conference in Orlando.

Those Enterprise Irregulars, however, have still a“wait and see” attitude because of the quite chequered history of the product. See: The Return of Business ByDesign and the Future of the On-Demand ERP Market [July 23]

… The rumor mill has been most unkind of late: Rumors have been flying that ByD is going to miss its latest release date, that its marketing plans are DOA, and that SAP is on the verge of laying an egg of colossal size and impact.

The rancor surrounding the July 31 release date of the new ByD reflects a complex history inside SAP and the on-demand market that has clouded a lot of otherwise objective analysis about its prospects, and how important ByD’s success is not just for SAP and its customers, but for the on-demand market as a whole. …

… The other point worth addressing about ByD is that its initial entrance to the market in 2007 came in the midst of a not-so-private battle between ByD’s main advocate, Peter Zencke, and fellow board member Shai Agassi, who wanted the concepts of ByD – model-driven, on-demand ERP – to be embodied in the main SAP suite instead of in a completely new, mid-market product. That battle at the top eventually led to Shai’s departure – Zencke left shortly thereafter – but it left a bad taste in many SAPers’ mouths for the product. The fact that it failed to be economically viable as an on-demand product in its initial release further fueled the ire of its detractors. …

… This internal “polemic”, to be polite about it, reminds me of what Microsoft has been going through in the years since Ray Ozzie first discussed Software + Services as the new direction for Microsoft. Even an outsider can imagine the screaming inside Microsoft about such a radical shift and what it would mean to the king of the desktops. The fact that Steve Ballmer felt compelled three years later to give his now-famous “We’re All In” speech is testimony to how hard it’s been internally for Microsoft to grapple with this paradigm shift. …

… SAP is facing a similar dilemma with ByD. Everything about it – on-demand but not true multi-tenant, requires a major channel that doesn’t exist yet, the potential for cannibalization of other products, the sordid release history, the bad blood inside SAP – means that SAP has a similar requirement to make sure that everyone is walking the walk and talking the talk.

With so much at stake, it’s clear that ByD will be one of the great inflection points in the history of enterprise software, and in many ways its success or failure will define the future of on-demand enterprise software for some time. ByD isn’t just a gamble that SAP can create a product like ByD, it’s also a gamble that there is actually a market out there for what ByD represents. This fact is hardly a given: NetSuite’s struggles to meet its market potential has given many proponents of on-demand ERP pause, as has Workday’s slow slow progress towards a critical mass of customers. …

… If SAP can pull off ByD, that success will create a huge opportunity for others, including NetSuite, by legitimizing a market that to date doesn’t really exist as a billion-plus dollar opportunity. If SAP fails, I fear that this much-needed capability will languish on the sidelines another four or five years, and customers will be all the poorer, literally and figuratively, for that failure.

So, baring some unforeseen glitch, ByD re-enters the market in one short week. Its success or failure will hinge on a number of factors, most important of which will be the SDK that comes out at the end of the year. This is going to be one of the most closely watched software rollouts in a long time, with its repercussions felt across the industry for years to come.

So the relaunch of SAP’s Business ByDesign product should be watched quite carefully on July 31!

“4G” WiMAX vs. 3.75G HSPA+

July 24, 2010 2:09 pm / 4 Comments on “4G” WiMAX vs. 3.75G HSPA+

See also: Mobile Internet (Aug’11) which is a total update on Aug 26, 2011 with a lot of additions to the original July 19, 2010 content on the following subjects:
– LTE and LTE Advanced — HSPA Evolved (parallel to LTE and LTE Advanced) — Heterogeneous networks or HetNets — Femtocells and Picocells — Qualcomm innovations in all that — Ericsson’s LTE Advanced demo — Current roadmaps on evolutions of current 3G+ broadband mobile networks

T-Mobile has just launched its 3.75G HSPA+ service in the US, which they wrongly call 4G (compare to the core information on Mobile Internet where standards are covered properly). See: T-Mobile USA: More HSPA+ [July 21]. Speedwise -however- they are on par or even better than the current “4G” service from Sprint.

PhoneScoop has published the results of their comprehensive testing 6 weeks ago. T-Mobile USA HSPA+ service has been found better on a download, upload and latency basis (especially on the last two).

… Sprint’s WiMAX network and T-Mobile’s HSPA+ network delivered roughly similar download speeds, just shy of 3 Mbps on average. These are real-world, average speeds, not ideal numbers skewed by a marketing department. 3 Mbps is easily twice as fast as your typical real-world speed with 3G, and faster even than many home DSL connections. …

See: 4G Networks Tested: WiMAX vs. HSPA+ [June 4]: Intro • The Numbers • Equipment • Summary

What was a quite interesting finding -however- that T-Mobile’s earlier HSPA 7.2 Mbps network service wasn’t much slower than HSPA+ or 21 Mbps.

One curious data point was comparing T-Mobile’s HSPA+ with their own HSPA 7.2 (slightly older 3G [correctly: 3.5G]) technology. If you just look at the theoretical peak numbers – 7.2 vs. 21 Mbps – you might think HSPA+ is almost three times faster than HSDPA 7.2. You’d be wrong. We compared them extensively, in all six locations. In our tests, the difference was small. At best, our webConnect Rocket USB stick with HSPA+ was only 15% faster than a standard webConnect USB stick with HSPA 7.2.

Could China close the gap in mobile Internet? It should!

July 21, 2010 7:07 pm / 5 Comments on Could China close the gap in mobile Internet? It should!

China has a significant gap in mobile Internet with the rest of the world:

– the current [end of H1CY10] share of 3G technologies in China are:
• 1.9% (10.46 million) for TD-SCDMA/China Mobile (w/ 554M subscribers),
• 4.8% (7.56 million) for W-CDMA/China Unicom (w/157M subscribers) and
• 9.6% (7.18 million) for CDMA2000/China Telecom (w/ 74.5M subscribers)
• which is 3.2% (25.2 million) overall 3G share of mobile connections (785.5 million) for China as a whole

– meanwhile W-CDMA (as the dominant 3G technology in the world) has:
• 12% (600 million) of the mobile connections worldwide (5 billion)
• 13.3% (600 million) of the joint GSM+W-CDMA connections worldwide (4.5 billion)

– and even for the more advanced mobile broadband Internet the current estimated share of:
• joint HSPA and EV-DO families is 6.8% (340 million) of the mobile connections worldwide (5 billion)
• HSPA family is 4.2% (~210 million) of the mobile connections worldwide (5 billion)
• HSPA family is 4.7% (~210 million) of the joint GSM+W-CDMA connections worldwide (4.5 billion)
• EV-DO family is 26% (~130 million) of the whole CDMA connections worldwide (500 million)

Closing that gap would be especially difficult because by far the biggest gap –with current 3G share of only 1.9%– is for China Mobile owning 70.5% of mobile connections and providing the China only TD-SCDMA technology as the path to 3G and beyond.

see: the Note within OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1 [July 5]
see: Mobile Internet [July 19] (core information)
follow-up:
– MediaTek, Mstar Push Into TD-SCDMA Market [Oct 21]:

… number of the mainland`s TD-SCDMA subscribers has grown at exponential rate into the second half of this year, especially in the latest two months in which a net one million additional subscribers were signed up each month.

… In light of such rapid growth, providers of wireless solutions are competing to roll out TD-SCDMA solutions. Among them are Leadcore Technology Co., Ltd., a firmware developer held by telecom-equipment supplier Datang Telecom Technology Co. of the mainland in addition to MediaTek, Mstar and Qualcomm Inc.

Leadcore has recently introduced a less expensive TD-SCDMA solution, which is quoted at only US$9. Yulong Computer Telecomm Scientific (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., a leading supplier of smartphones in China, has reportedly adopted the solution.

MediaTek is developing several solutions including the one called TD Protocol Stack. Industry executives believes the company will make some available by the end of this year.

Spreadtrum Telecommunications Inc., China`s homegrown chip designer, is now the major supplier of TD-SCDMA chips at home.

– China market: Inexpensive TD-SCDMA handsets to be available in 4Q10 [Oct 13]:

Pushed by China Mobile, TD-SCDMA handsets and smartphones at retail prices of about 500 yuan (US$75) and 1,000 yuan respectively will be available in the China market in the fourth quarter of 2010.

The TD-SCDMA industry has been developing for 4-5 years, resulting in a supply chain of more than 100 players, according to secretary-general Yang Hua for the TD-SCDMA Industry Alliance. There are 7-8 developers of TD-SCDMA chips currently, with chip prices falling 60-70% over a year to US$8-10 at present, Yang indicated.

Five international and many China-based vendors had launched 461 TD-SCDMA handsets as of the end of August 2010, with Samsung Electronics the largest international vendor, Yang pointed out. However, a single TD-SCDMA model can reach sales of 200,000-300,000 handsets only, a volume too small to be able to push down component costs, according to Taiwan-based handset makers. China Mobile is setting up its fourth-phase TD-SCDMA network of more than 100,000 base stations and expects the number of TD-SCDMA subscribers to increase from 13.42 million currently to 100 million in 2012.

– China market: 3G subscribers to top 45 million by year-end 2010, says Digitimes Research [Sept 16]. “China Mobile is expected to see the number of its 3G subscribers reach 18.8 million by the end of 2010” [remaining at the same 42% market share as of the end of June 2010].
– 3G Mobile Phone Shipment In China Is Expected To Increase Five-fold In 2010 [July 23]

According to iSuppli Ltd analysis, due to wireless carriers providing heavily subsides, the mobile phones consumer prices fell down. It is expected that China’s domestic 3G mobile phone shipments will grow nearly five times, and the volume is expected to reach 42.97 million in 2010.

… TD-SCDMA mobile phone domestic shipments in 2010 will increase to 20.4 million, from 1.3 million in 2009.

… The iSuppli Corporation predicts that by the end of 2014, the total number of wireless subscribers in China will rise to 1.1 billion, 3G subscribers will increase to 230 million. …

It is worth to copy here the latest chart of 3G growth in China, as well as a table and another chart from the above places, to see that the rate of growth shown so far is not enough:

The Q2CY10 growth rate for China Mobile was 36% which is giving a seemingly impressive 242.4% yearly growth if continued that way. With that China Mobile will have just 35.8 million 3G subscribers by the end of next June which would be still between 5% and 6% of the overall number of their subscribers. Meanwhile the number of W-CDMA Family connections worldwide would probably grow to around 16% (to ~960M, from current 12% i.e. 600M), and even mobile broadband connections worldwide for the HSPA family alone would grow to around 5.7% (to ~340M from current 4.2% i.e. ~210M) of all mobile connections globally (by the end of next June).

I’ve come to these results from the following table and the source data behind that another chart (copied here from Mobile Internet [July 19]:

3.9G TD-LTE rollout in 2012 with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G? [July 19] is already a sign of taking additional extraordinary measures in this regard. For the Chinese it is not a question whether they could close the gap in mobile Internet. They are understanding pretty well that they should close that gap as soon as possible! Whatever it takes.

3.9G TD-LTE rollout in 2012 with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G?

July 19, 2010 9:08 am / 8 Comments on 3.9G TD-LTE rollout in 2012 with integrated 2G, 3G and 4G?

A small news item on DigiTimes last week has gone around the technical web quite fast: China Mobile to expand 4G network trial operations [16 July]

China Mobile Communications will expand the trial operation of its 4G networks in the fourth quarter of 2010 and a successful run of the trials may push China Mobile to start rolling out its 4G infrastructure in 2012, 2-3 years ahead of its original schedule, according to industry sources.

Latest update: China-version iPhones to adopt China Mobile TD-LTE technology, says paper [May 23, 2011] (emphasis is mine)

China Mobile Communications has reached a consensus with Apple under which the next-generation of iPhones to be sold in China will adopt TD-LTE technology developed by China Mobile, the Chinese-language Commercial Times quoted the China-based carrier’s chairman Wang Jianzhou as saying.

China Mobile has begun voice testing on its TD-LTE experimental networks in Shanghai and commercial operations of the 4G networks in China are expected to begin in 2012, the paper said.

By 2012, China Mobile also plans to set up over 40 experimental networks, 10 commercial networks and 20,000 base stations globally to promote the adoption of the TD-LTE technology, the paper added.

Update: the rollout could begin even earlier
– China Mobile considering launch of TD-LTE services ahead of schedule [Dec 14]
– China market: China Mobile to set up TD-LTE trial networks in six cities, says media [Nov 2] comes with the information that “China Mobile will invest 1.5 billion yuan (US$225 million) to establish trial networks of its self-developed version of LTE, TD-LTE (time division-Long Term Evolution), covering a total of 3,060 base stations in six large cities in China, according to China-based media CCTTR World Communications. The six large cities are Beijing in the northern region, Shanghai and Nanjing in the eastern region, Xiamen in the southeastern region, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the southern region, the source indicated.”
– China Mobile: 4G network coming soon [Sept 15] is stating that “4G data card is close to debut and the carrier and partners are working on the research of 4G handset chip … China Mobile is expected to launch 4G mobile communication services as early as 2011 to boost its high-margin data services, according to the GSM Association.”
– China Mobile to set up device sourcing company [Sept 17] is telling that “The planned device-sourcing company will begin to purchase TD-SCDMA-enabled feature phones with prices below 1,000 yuan (US$148) at the end of the year and then shift to smartphones priced below 2,000 yuan [with the above mentioned 4G handset chip I would assume] in the first half of 2011“.
For background information on these technologies see: Mobile Internet
For background information why such an extraordinary acceleration effort is needed see: Could China close the gap in mobile Internet? It should! [July 19]
For background information regarding Huawei’s contribution to the Shanghai World Expo’s TD-LTE Demo Network see: Winners–TD-LTE connecting World Expo (PDF) and Winners–The brilliant debut: TD-LTE elevates experience at World Expo (PDF), both are from Huawei’s WinWin E-Zine Issue 6 [Aug 10, 2010 — text only HTML versions: the first and the second].

More information has become available from TMC, last week as well: China Mobile, Huawei roll out China’s first 3G/4G-integrated trial network [July 16]

China Mobile (CHL.NYSE; 00941.HK) and Chinese mobile equipment and network solutions provider Huawei Technologies have finished the first TD-SCDMA/TD-LTE outfield test and completed a series of tests and verifications in Wuxi, Jiangsu province.

The tests show that the 3G/4G-integrated network and smooth evolution are completely feasible.

… the technology will be tested in three Chinese mainland cities in the final quarter of the year, with 100 base stations constructed and 5,000 people invited to use the service.

At the beginning of the trial operation, China Mobile will offer data cards to the users and provide them with smartphones.

Results drew from such tests may facilitate China Mobile to offer 4G services in 2012, earlier than previously expected 2014 to 2015.

An insider at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revealed that China Mobile will select three coastal cities to pilot the TD-LTE networks, and Qingdao, Xiamen, Zhuhai, and Wuxi are all candidates.

The insider believes that 2G, 3G and 4G services will all be available to Chinese telecom service subscribers at the same time in future [emphasis mine], rather than high-grade technology substituting the lower-grade options.

A UK report from a day earlier has indicated foreign operator and supplier interest as well: TD-LTE 4G Sweeping the Wireless Broadband Markets in China [July 15]

… a variety of wireless operator companies have actually started shifting to TD-LTE, inside and outside China. Two of the main users recorded are Qualcomm and Yota. … This new technology is expected to hit the markets within two years, after a series of field tests.

Ulf Ewaldsson, Ericsson VP, said, “The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and China Mobile will start large-scale field tests in the fourth quarter of this year. Ericsson will also take part”.

Ericsson’s strong commitment and technical readiness has already been demonstrated a week ago indeed: First complete TD-LTE solution showcased [July 12]

At a China Mobile event in Shanghai, China today, Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) showcased its complete end-to-end TD-LTE solution for the first time. Together with ST-Ericsson devices, the system successfully showcased super-fast mobile broadband applications such as video on demand (VOD) and video streaming using a live camera.

… ST-Ericsson, a leader in wireless platforms and semiconductors, was the first in the world to demonstrate a handheld LTE device and to achieve LTE and HSPA mobility with a multimode device [emphasis mine]. Available next year, ST-Ericsson’s next generation modem will support both versions of LTE, in addition to TD-SCDMA and HSPA+/EDGE [emphasis mine]. With ST-Ericsson’s products, Ericsson is now the only player with complete end-to-end TD-LTE capabilities in the industry.

Important addition: TDD-LTE equipments by Q1 2011: Ericsson [July 24]

NEW DELHI, INDIA: Ericsson in its claim has shortened the time period for availability of TDD (time division duplex)-LTE equipment from 2013 end to first quarter of 2011.

Per Thorzell, head, radio Access Network, Ericsson India added that Ericsson also did a TDD-LTE trial run in India using 20 Mhz spectrum and achieved a download speed of 71 mbps per second. … “There are approximately 95 per cent functional similarity between TDD and FDD-LTE. Therefore chipsets that support FDD-LTE will also support TDD-LTE,” … to support TDD-LTE, Ericsson feels there will be dongles as access devices in the first half of 2011 and later handheld devices.

Of the two companies mentioned in the above UK article Yota is a Russia-based mobile operator expanding to other countries worldwide, while Qualcomm is the most influential wireless telecommunications research and development company, as well as the largest fabless chip supplier in the world.

Qualcomm has a unique role in the possible 2-3 years acceleration of the TD-LTE technology. The Casino Royale: The story of Qualcomm [July 12] article from July 16 issue of Forbes India, republished on-line by moneycontrol.com, “India’s No. 1 financial portal” has been summarized on the cover as:

Qualcomm is one of the great technology companies of our times. Its products drive large parts of telecom networks everywhere. Everywhere, except India. Now after almost a decade of trying to open up the Indian market, Qualcomm’s time might finally be here. And it will all because of what Qualcomm learnt in China.

Going into the article one can see what made Rohin Dharmakumar, the author of the article to arrive to such a conclusion. Some excerpts from the point of view of our subject:

They [Qualcomm] had invented a proprietary technology that became the seed for the wireless standard CDMA … CDMA began to be adopted by the world’s mobile operators from the mid-90s after years of relentless hard-selling … , backed up by equally relentless patenting by … engineers in the R&D department. … Today, the company … sits on a pile of over USD 18 billion in cash while generating another USD 2-3 billion in free cash flows every year!

Qualcomm’s model as it exists is simple. Be inventive, file as many patents as possible in wireless communication, and then build products around those or wait for people to queue up to use those patents and pay a nice royalty to the company.

… Qualcomm’s patents are critical to almost all major wireless standards on the GSM, CDMA and even LTE (Long Term Evolution) sides, helping it squeeze a royalty out of quite literally anyone and everyone. An army of its lawyers and patent experts go after any company that dares touch its wireless IP without paying for it.

… The first star that heralded its new fortune was the successful completion of India’s 3G auctions. Because Qualcomm’s IP is embedded in all 3G technologies, it will make a 4-5% cut off every 3G phone that will now be sold in India.

… The second omen was on March 11, at a press conference in New Delhi’s Oberoi hotel, when Kanwalinder Singh, its India head said, “Today I’m very proud to announce that Qualcomm has invested one billion US dollars into India.”

Singh did not spend that money in building offices, hiring thousands of new employees or buying local businesses. He spent it to buy 20 megahertz (MHz) of spectrum in the cities of Mumbai and New Delhi and the states of Haryana and Kerala. Qualcomm was one of the six companies that won precious spectrum to offer high speed “4G” wireless broadband to Indians. The $1 billion spent in India was its single largest bet anywhere around the world.

The funny thing though is that Qualcomm is betting on deploying a technology that it didn’t think much of to begin with, a commercially unproven technology called TD-LTE originally developed by the Chinese.

Learning from the Chinese

The Chinese government, in the mid-90s, decided to develop a technology to avoid paying royalties to Western companies like Qualcomm. They created TD-SCDMA, a 3G wireless standard. But it never really took off*. The Chinese, in order to avoid paying royalties, had to reinvent the wheel. This made their technology cumbersome and inefficient.

* Personal note: TD-SCDMA in fact took off in 2009, and that was just too late only for international acceptance (being a 3G technology). See the 3G China customer base chart in my earlier OPhone OS (OMS) 2.0 based on Android 2.1 [July 5] article.

The Chinese pumped more resources into it and refined it into TD-LTE. They also roped in two large Western partners, Verizon and Vodafone, to conduct joint trials of LTE combing the Western (FD) flavour with its own (TD) one. Julian Grivolas, an analyst with Ovum in Paris who tracks the LTE space closely, says China’s goal was to make sure that this joint LTE becomes the next equivalent of the mobile world’s ubiquitous GSM standard.

But the company that took advantage of this trend the fastest was the one which was the last to join the LTE party — Qualcomm. For that it had to swallow its pride and abandon Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB), a 4G technology it had been developing for many years. In late 2008, it abandoned UMB to focus exclusively on LTE when it saw big operators tilting towards it. A few years earlier it had already spent over USD 800 million to acquire Flarion, a company with a significant amount of patents in areas related to LTE.

Qualcomm smartly co-opted its erstwhile foe China into becoming an ally by announcing plans to build new “multi-mode” mobile chipset** that would combine the version of LTE that Qualcomm and a galaxy of mobile companies like Ericsson and Nokia had developed along with what the Chinese had developed [emphasis mine].

** Personal note: see Qualcomm Introduces World’s First Complete Multi-mode 3G/LTE Integrated Solution for Smartphones [Feb 16, 2009], Qualcomm Now Sampling Industry’s First Dual-carrier HSPA+ and Multi-Mode 3G/LTE Chipsets for Global Markets [Nov 12, 2009] and Qualcomm to launch TD-SCDMA and TD-LTE next year [Nov 19, 2009]. Update: Qualcomm Now Demonstrating Products Based on LTE TDD Technology — Company on Track with Commercialization of Products Based on LTE TDD Technology with First Devices Expected in Mid-2011 [Sept 8, 2010]. At the same time we had news that Qualcomm now has 4G licensing deals with the big three [Nov 16, 2009]: Qualcomm told its investor meeting that LG has joined Samsung and Nokia in agreeing to pay to use its technology in future 4G products. “This means they have 65% of the handset market signed up to long term royalty agreements [emphasis mine],” JP Morgan analyst Steven O’Brien told Reuters. “We have more certainty in the royalty streams and cashflow streams from the major handset vendors.”

Given that a significant chunk of TD-LTE patents rest with Chinese companies like China Mobile, Huawei and ZTE, the only way Qualcomm would have integrated them into its own offerings would be by cross-licensing*** — basically sharing patents with them. The Chinese are returning the love because a global acceptance of TD-LTE will mean cheaper equipment prices for its mobile operators and larger markets for its equipment vendors.

*** Personal note: There is no information regarding these cross licensing agreements, although they definitely exist. We only know that the Chinese were quite successful in licensing negotiations even before. See CDMA success brings Chinese royalty gripes [Feb 12, 2009]: “… in 2000 Irwin Jacobs [the father of current CEO] negotiated government permission for CDMA to be used in China, Qualcomm granted Chinese manufacturers the best rates in the world — around 2.65% as opposed to 5% for other makers. (Qualcomm neither discloses nor confirms its royalty rates).”

Such an advantage even prompted the following: “In fact, outside of China, TD-SCDMA is generally dismissed as a negotiating ploy by China to obtain acceptable patent cross licensing agreements with Qualcomm, Ericsson and the like.” – see An update on TD-SCDMA, China’s 3G technology [Oct 18, 2007]

With TD-LTE under his belt, [Paul] Jacobs [their CEO] knew he had WiMAX cornered.

What happened to WiMAX in the last month I’ve already described in:
• WiMAX/WiBro <=> TD-LTE and LTE in general [June 28]
• Intel dismisses WiMAX Program Office [July 1]

In addition to that it is also worth to note that LTE is Changing the Landscape of IPR Wealth [May 18, 2010]:

… the 2G, 3G, and 3.5G IPR [Intellectual Property Rights] landscape was dominated by Qualcomm, Nokia, and Ericsson … “While Interdigital and Qualcomm are clear leaders in the global LTE patents portfolio with 21% and 19% market shares respectively of the total number of patents, Huawei comes in third position with 9%, Samsung in fourth with 8%, and Nokia, LG, and Ericsson in joint fifth place, each with 7% market share,” [said Malik] Kamal Saadi [, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media].

… Until now only a third of current global LTE patents could be described as essential but about 60% of them are recognised as having the potential to become essential in the future. Whether or not a patent is viewed as being essential could also vary from one market to another. For example, from the 182 LTE patents contributed by Huawei, 178 are registered in China and only a handful of these could currently be described as essential. …

… Informa Telecoms and Media believes that more than 60% of LTE patents from likes of Qualcomm and Nokia, 50% of LG’s portfolio, 40% of Samsung’s patents, and less than 33% of Ericsson’s portfolio could be described as essential LTE patents so far.

The second omen was on March 11, at a press conference in New Delhi’s Oberoi hotel, when Kanwalinder Singh, its India head said, “Today I’m very proud to announce that Qualcomm has invested one billion US dollars into India.”

Singh did not spend that money in building offices, hiring thousands of new employees or buying local businesses. He spent it to buy 20 megahertz (MHz) of spectrum in the cities of Mumbai and New Delhi and the states of Haryana and Kerala. Qualcomm was one of the six companies that won precious spectrum to offer high speed “4G” wireless broadband to Indians. The $1 billion spent in India was its single largest bet anywhere around the world.

The funny thing though is that Qualcomm is betting on deploying a technology that it didn’t think much of to begin with, a commercially unproven technology called TD-LTE originally developed by the Chinese.

E Ink: Consolidated revenues, December 2010 (NT$b)
December	M/M	Y/Y	2010	Y/Y
3.68	12.32%	136.02%	25.179	56.69%

Month	Sales	Y/Y	Month	Sales	Y/Y	Month	Sales	Y/Y	Month	Sales	Y/Y
Sep-10	1,567	6.6%	Jun-10	1,068	(0.2%)	Mar-10	1,268	77.6%	Dec-09	1,314	108%
Aug-10	1,141	(15.3%)	May-10	1,243	45.8%	Feb-10	1,186	102.4%	Nov-09	1,558	263.8%
Jul-10	982	(27.5%)	Apr-10	1,042	13.8%	Jan-10	1,262	154.6%	Oct-09	1,301	128.3%
Q3CY10	3,690		Q2CY10	3,353		Q1CY10	3,716		Q4CY09	4,173

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