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Windows [inc. Phone] 8.x chances of becoming the alternative platform to iOS and Android: VERY SLIM as it is even more difficult for Microsoft now than any time before
First recent findings about The hierarchy of developer needs: Creativeness, not money is the top motivator [VisionMobile blog, Aug 12, 2013] are showing quite clearly how much Microsoft is in disadvantage in the global developers community not only vs. iOS and Android, but even vs. HTML5 in general, which is already a real third platform for developers. Regarding that read UPDATE: HTML5 Vs. Native Mobile Apps — HTML5 Is Down But Not Out [Business Insider Australia, Aug 14, 2013], HIGHLY RECOMMENDED!
It is even more so as a much better HTML5 platform (than the corresponding Windows 8 subset, so called WinJS) came now to the market with FireFox OS:
– as its “first two devices hitting the market – the Alcatel OneTouch Fire and ZTE Open – the latter just launched in Spain from Telefonica for €69 ($90) contract-free including €30 ($39) of airtime for prepaid” according to p. 12 of the free Developer Economics Q3 2013 [VisionMobile, July 29, 2013] report
– and “In just a short space of time, Firefox OS has managed to amass a respectable Developer Intent share, even before devices hit the market, and while competing for Windows Phone, Windows 8 and BlackBerry 10 all of which are much older platforms, with devices in market and billions of market dollars behind them.” as per p. 24 of the same report.
Now the quite important findings from The hierarchy of developer needs: Creativeness, not money is the top motivator [VisionMobile blog, Aug 12, 2013]
What motivates developers? Is it fame or fortune? Our new Developer Segmentation 2013 report [starting from £1,495.00] addresses this questions, presenting a needs-bases segmentation model that focuses on developer goals, not just demographics. Based on data from our latest Developer Economics survey (6,000 respondents from 115 countries [FREE to download from here: HIGHLY RECOMMENDED]), this article gives you some insights from the report, discussing how the sense of achievement, not money is the prime motivator for developers.
…
Most business are resorting to traditional, textbook marketing techniques to segment developers – by technology (web, Java, Windows, Android, Apple), job function (coders, designers, architects, team leads, IT managers, CxOs), by company size, app category (games vs enterprise developers), by audience (B2C vs B2B) or by demographics (age, income, education or location).
Yet all these segmentation models are bound to fail, as they fundamentally neglect to address how developers make investment decisions in a new platform, API or SDK. In other words, it’s not age, job function, audience or technology background that influences how a developer chooses between Apple, Google, Windows Phone, BlackBerry or Tizen.
To understand the complex mosaic of developer personas we segment developers in terms of their outcomes, or what developers are trying to achieve. This is based on the Jobs to Be Done methodology, popularized by Harvard Professor Clay Christensen and which constitutes today’s cutting edge in segmentation techniques. We have backed this model with unprecedented statistical rigor and hard data, from the largest-ever mobile developer survey of 6,000+ developers.
Building on our earlier Developer Economics 2012 research work, we extracted hard data on thousands of developers in terms of their aspirations, motivations, challenges and plans in app development. We produced a unique model of eight developer segments – the Hobbyists, the Explorers, the Hunters, the Guns for Hire, the Product Extenders, the Digital Content Publishers, the Gold Seekers and the enterprise IT developers.
How do these eight segments and three clusters contribute to the app economy? More importantly, when do these segments interact with platforms?
We find that Explorers and Hobbyists, those seeking to learn, have fun and self-improve, make up 33% of the mobile developer population but only 13% of the app economy revenues. These segments prefer – more than average – BlackBerry 10, Windows Phone as a platform, as these are more often associated with experimentation and learning.
The Hunters and Guns for Hire, those seeking revenues from the app economy, make up 42% of the developer population and 48% of the app economy revenues. These segments prefer – more than average – iOS as a platform, due to the consistent revenue-generating opportunities of the platform.
Product Extenders, Enterprise IT developers, Digital Content Publishers and Gold Seekers, aiming at extending a [non-mobile] business [with apps], make up 29% of the developer population, and a whopping 39% of app economy revenues. These segments prefer – more than average – Android and HTML5 as a platform – due to the reach that these platforms offer across the entire smartphone and feature phone installed base.
… <goes to “The Hierarchy of Developer Motivations” chart, not relevant to this post, so omitted> …
Then Microsoft should take into account The evolution of handset business models: From source of profits to distribution channel [VisionMobile blog, Aug 5, 2013]
The evolution of the PC and mobile handset industry have been mirror images of each other, as both saw two distinct disruptions: a new market disruption, followed by a low-end disruption. Guest author Sameer Singh discusses how the shift from integrated companies to modular competitors will pressure hardware profit margins across the industry, leading to the emergence of a new business model, i.e. hardware-as-distribution.
The mobile handset industry has already seen two waves of disruption: A “new market disruption”, led by Apple, and a “low-cost disruption”, driven by Google and its Android platform. Each wave created distinctly different business models that completely realigned competitive dynamics in the industry. Where do we go from here?
We believe that the coming, third wave of disruption will again reshuffle the deck for all industry players. We will see growth in a new class of business models, where handset hardware is no longer seen as a source of profits, but is treated as a distribution channel for digital products and services.
… <two long sections about “Dual Disruption Patterns in Computing” and “Impact of Value Chain Integration on Business Model Evolution” which are quite important to prove the author’s prediction about the inevitability of the third wave of mobile handset industry disuption, but for us here it is sufficient for our subject to include his “Third Disruption” discussion> …
The Third Disruption: Hardware as a Distribution Channel
As there will be fewer profits left in the handset industry, a third wave of disruption is a certainty.
In the PC industry, once the dominance of modular architectures led to deep commoditization, hardware just became a distribution channel for software (the operating system and applications). The evolution of the mobile handset industry works out slightly differently. Google essentially destroyed the software licensing business model by giving the Android operating system away for free. Consequently, the cost of owning a proprietary operating system became unviable for most players (like Motorola, Sony Ericsson or Nokia) because hardware margins became severely pressured. This ensured that industry focus and profitability would accrue to the next layer of the value chain that was underserved, i.e. Google’s core business – online services.
In the PC industry, OEMs like Dell and Sony used the “hardware as distribution” approach to charge software vendors to pre-install applications on their devices and boost margins. In the mobile industry, we have seen already numerous companies follow this model to create a competitive advantage by leveraging established ecosystems. Many service companies like Baidu, Dropbox, Opera, Facebook and Whatsapp have attempted this strategy by partnering with OEMs to pre-install or use their services by default.
Another variation of this strategy, followed by services and content companies, is selling relatively high-end hardware at cost, in order to enable deeper penetration of the company’s core services. Companies like Amazon and Xiaomi compete asymmetrically with true hardware vendors in order to expand their consumer base. Both strategies have been quite successful – Amazon has expanded Kindle Fire availability to numerous countries based on strong sales and Xiaomi expects to double its handset sales
to 15 millionthis year [to 20 million, see p. 25 of my The Upcoming Mobile Internet Superpower mini e-book]. Many more services companies like Evernote and Spotify are contemplating the low-cost, “hardware as distribution” strategy in the future. We have already seen a smartphone called SmartNamo dedicated to an Indian politician, Narendra Modi. Will we see a “Justin Bieber phone”, “Shah Rukh Khan phone” or even a “Real Madrid phone”?Rapid commoditization will only make it easier for companies to convert hardware into a distribution channel. The tablet industry has seen more price competition than the smartphone market in the absence of carrier-driven price distortions. As a result, commoditization has been much more rapid and the “hardware as distribution” model has come to the forefront in a very narrow time frame. Low-cost tablet hardware has allowed companies like Newscorp to enter the industry with preloaded, education-focused content. We have seen similar models emerge in South Africa, India, China and many more countries. As price competition increases, commoditization pressure in the smartphone industry, variations of “hardware as distribution”, could become one of the primary drivers of profitability.
The expected shift in handset business models will reshuffle the deck once again. Companies that catch the trend early will find plenty of opportunities to create competitive advantages and thrive in the new environment. Those who miss it will be destined to fight the losing battle of “competition to the best”, which Prof. Porter calls “the granddaddy of all strategy mistakes”.
On pp. 32-33 of my The Upcoming Mobile Internet Superpower mini e-book [Aug 14, 2013] it was further noted that:
China Daily reported not less than 14 months ago that Xiaomi, China’s Apple success story?
…
The broader vision of Xiaomi, Lei [Jun, chairman and chief executive officer of Xiaomi Corp] pointed out, is to ship more than 100 million smartphones annually for one model by 2016.
“I know it (the vision) is crazy, but we would like to have a try,” said Lei. Cupertino-based Apple managed to sell more than 90 million iPhone devices last year. It is widely believed that Apple will break the 100 million unit mark this year, although it has been less than five years since the first iPhone launched in 2007.
The difference in business model was even more clearly communicated in this recent interview: Xiaomi CEO: Don’t call us China’s Apple [Reuters TV YouTube channel, Aug 15, 2013]
This shows very well how the above mentioned third disruption could fundamentally alter the current state of mobile intelligent devices market. As far as our subject is concerned my three other posts are giving further clues about growing Microsoft difficulties:
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Google Play catchup with iOS App Store and its way of assuring compatibility across Android 1.6 to 4.3 [Aug 15, 2013]
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With Android and forked Android smartphones as the industry standard Nokia relegated to a niche market status while Apple should radically alter its previous premium strategy for long term [Aug 17, 2013] from which I include here this major chart (from myself) as well:

Watch also a recent video report closely related to that: In China smartphone market, cheap rules – and Apple suffers [Reuters TV YouTube channel, Aug 19, 2013]
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Android to overtake the overall PC market? [Aug 20, 2013] from which I include here this major chart (from IDC) as well:
Consider also Apple and Samsung Losing Share to Chinese Smartphone Makers [China Internet Watch, Aug 7, 2013]
The high-end players like Apple and Samsung are losing share to Chinese manufacturers like ZTE, Huawei, and Lenovo, and no-name brands which are willing to make extremely cheap smartphones. As you can see in the picture, Samsung’s Q2 share in 2013 is 1% lesser than that of 2012, and Apple decreases 3.6% share, while Chinese manufacturers grow 3.5%.
Android to overtake the overall PC market?
I came to this after the recent posts of mine (between July 20 and August 17, 2013):
- With Android and forked Android smartphones as the industry standard Nokia relegated to a niche market status while Apple should radically alter its previous premium strategy for long term
- Google Play catchup with iOS App Store and its way of assuring compatibility across Android 1.6 to 4.3
- The Upcoming Mobile Internet Superpower
- China is the epicenter of the mobile Internet world, so of the next-gen HTML5 web
- Superphones turning point: segment satured with Tier 1 globals while the Chinese locals are at less than 40% of the Samsung price
- Xiaomi, OPPO and Meizu–top Chinese brands of smartphone innovation
- GiONEE (金立), the emerging global competitor on the smartphone market
- Eight-core MT6592 for superphones and big.LITTLE MT8135 for tablets implemented in 28nm HKMG are coming from MediaTek to further disrupt the operations of Qualcomm and Samsung
as well as after the accumulated contents of my separated website on the whole issue of ‘USD99 Allwinner’ devoted to a multifaceted disruption to not only the traditional PC market but even to the current tablet market as the analyst companies are viewing that.
Those analyst companies are already hinting indirectly to the possibility of Android (sooner or later) overtaking the overall PC market via the following headlines which I derived from their recent press release contents:
- IDC: ‘Tablets will surpass portable PC volumes already this year’
- Gartner: ‘Traditional PC shipments to decline as tablets are becoming the primary consumption device’
- Digitimes Research: ‘Overtaking iPad will happen in 2H13’
- Canalys says ‘Yes’
- EnfoDesk (Analysys International) from China says ‘For sure, as it is already happening against the iPad in China even at a nascent stage of the local tablet market’
You can read those release in the detailed sections given below.
Before that first note: Everything is rooted in the established fact that: TrendForce: iPad Marked Historically Low Market Share 35% of Global Q2 Tablet Shipment [press release, July 25, 2013] (although the exact number differs between the different market research organisations, as you will see in the detailed sections below)
According to the survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the global shipment of the 7” tablets with WSVGA resolution and above attained 41.1 million units, dropping 12.4% from the previous quarter. The seasonal factor, the generation shuffles for some mainstream products, and the inventory adjustments amid the weakening sales were all key reasons for declining shipments.
WitsView’s research director Eric Chiou says that Apple, as one single brand that controls the most volumetric tablet shipment, saw its 9.7” iPad entering the end of life cycle in Q2, and iPad mini’s relatively selling prices caused slow sales and the impacts from the inventory adjustments, leading to a dropping shipment of 14.6 million units compared with 19.5 million units in Q1. On top of the quarterly drop as high as 25%, its market share has dropped to 35.5%, the new historical low.
Samsung’s ambition of boosting the tablet shipment was also shown on the Q2 shipment. Despite its slightly decreased shipment of 8.8 million units from the previous quarter, the Korean maker’s market share, supported by the newly launched 8” model, grew from 20.2% to 21.5%, still a remarkable result. As for the two leading PC brands, Asus and Acer, their business cores both were placed on the under-$130 7” products, and the price-cutting strategy helped them become the two of a few brands counter to the declining trend, seeing excellent QoQ growth of 60% and 36%, respectively.
“The two long-term winners of the entry-level tablet segment, Amazon and Google, showed unideal shipment results, holding shipment volumes of only 1.1 million and 0.9 million units, respectively,” Chiou indicates. Amazon’s 2013 new models are all concentrated after September and the brand is in an empty-product period, while Google’s fighter model Nexus 7 had the 1st generation approach the end of life cycle in Q2 and saw a significantly dropping shipment. The single-quarter shipment will bounce back to more than 2 million units in Q3 as the 2nd generation product is projected to ship smoothly.
The white-box tablet couldn’t avoid the decline in Q2. The price increases and the short supply for the key component RAM led to double strikes of cost increase and insufficient supply to white-box tablets that had smaller production scales, in addition to brands’ strongly promoted entry-level tablets that squeezed their room for survival. Under both the internal and external impacts, the white-box tablet saw a shipment volume of only 9.7 million units, declining 7% QoQ
Based on WitsView’s analysis, on top of Amazon’s yearly new 7” model and the 2nd generation of Nexus 7, several highly-anticipated models will be revealed in Q3, including Apple’s heavyweight Generation 5 iPad and the new Android 10.1” tablet intensively designed by PC brands. With the stimulation of improved spec and tempting prices, the Q3 shipment is projected to reach an amount of 49.6 million units, challenging a QoQ growth of 21%. The tablet shipment for the entire 2013 is estimated at 196.5 million units, including 153.2 million units of brand tablets and 43.3 million units of white-box tablets.
The second well established fact affecting the future is that Surface RT was a huge market failure first recognized indirectly via the FORM 10-K submission of the Microsoft on July 18, 2013.
… The general availability of Surface RT and Windows 8 started on October 26, 2012. The general availability of Surface Pro started on February 9, 2013. …
ITEM 6. SELECTED FINANCIAL DATA
… includes a charge for Surface RT inventory adjustments recorded in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2013, which decreased operating income by $900 million, net income by $596 million, and diluted earnings per share by $0.07. …
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
…
- Cost of revenue increased $2.7 billion or 16%, reflecting increased product costs associated with Surface and Windows 8, including an approximately $900 million charge for Surface RT inventory adjustments, higher headcount-related expenses, payments made to Nokia related to joint strategic initiatives, royalties on Xbox LIVE content, and retail stores expenses, offset in part by decreased costs associated with lower sales of Xbox 360 consoles and decreased traffic acquisition costs.
- Sales and marketing expenses increased $1.4 billion or 10%, reflecting advertising of Windows 8 and Surface.
…
Windows Division
…
Fiscal year 2013 compared with fiscal year 2012
Windows Division revenue increased $839 million. Surface revenue was $853 million. …
Cost of revenue increased $1.8 billion, reflecting a $1.6 billion increase in product costs associated with Surface and Windows 8, including a charge for Surface RT inventory adjustments of approximately $900 million. Sales and marketing expenses increased $1.0 billion or 34%, reflecting an $898 million increase in advertising costs associated primarily with Windows 8 and Surface.
…
The possibility of such failure was already recognized in my other posts:
- Microsoft Surface with some questions about the performance and smoothness of the experience [Nov 12 –28, 2012]
- Steven Sinofsky, ex Microsoft: The victim of an extremely complex web of the “western world” high-tech interests [Nov 13-20, 2012]
IDC: ‘Tablets will surpass portable PC volumes already this year’
IDC Forecasts Worldwide Tablet Shipments to Surpass Portable PC Shipments in 2013, Total PC Shipments in 2015 [press release, May 28, 2013]
According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, tablet shipments are expected to grow 58.7% year over year in 2013 reaching 229.3 million units, up from 144.5 million units last year. IDC now predicts tablet shipments will exceed those of portable PCs this year, as the slumping PC market is expected to see negative growth for the second consecutive year. In addition, IDC expects tablet shipments to outpace the entire PC market (portables and desktops combined) by 2015. (A press release summarizing IDC’s latest PC market forecast can be found here.)
“What started as a sign of tough economic times has quickly shifted to a change in the global computing paradigm with mobile being the primary benefactor,” said Ryan Reith, Program Manager for IDC’s Mobility Trackers. “Tablets surpassing portables in 2013, and total PCs in 2015, marks a significant change in consumer attitudes about compute devices and the applications and ecosystems that power them. IDC continues to believe that PCs will have an important role in this new era of computing, especially among business users. But for many consumers, a tablet is a simple and elegant solution for core use cases that were previously addressed by the PC.”
While Apple has been at the forefront of the tablet revolution, the current market expansion has been increasingly fueled by low-cost Android devices. In 2013, the worldwide average selling price (ASP) for tablets is expected to decline -10.8% to $381. In comparison, the ASP of a PC in 2013 is nearly double that at $635. IDC expects tablet prices to decline further, which will allow vendors to deliver a viable computing experience into the hands of many more people at price points the PC industry has strived to meet for years.
“Apple’s success in the education market has proven that tablets can be used as more than just a content consumption or gaming device,” said Jitesh Ubrani, Research Analyst for the Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker. “These devices are learning companions, and as tablet prices continue to drop, the dream of having a PC for every child gets replaced with the reality that we can actually provide a tablet for every child.”
In addition to lower prices, another major shift in the tablet market has occurred around screen sizes. Apple’s first generation iPad, which included a 9.7-inch display, was perceived by many as the sweet spot for tablets. That is, until 7-inch Android-based tablets began to gain traction in the market. Apple responded with the iPad mini in the fourth quarter of 2012, and in the space of two quarters the sub-8-inch category exploded to overtake the larger-sized segment in terms of total shipments.
Worldwide Tablet Market Share by Screen Size Band, 2011 – 2017
Screen Size
2011
2013
2017
< 8″
27%
55%
57%
8″ – 11″
73%
43%
37%
11″+
0%
2%
6%
Total
100%
100%
100%
Source: IDC Worldwide Tablet Tracker, May 28, 2013.
* Forecast Data
Table Notes:
- Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the vendor/brand under which they are sold.
- IDC considers all LCD-based slate devices with screens between 7 and 16 inches as tablets, regardless of whether or not they include a removable keyboard (such as the Surface RT). Convertible devices with non-removable keyboards (such as Lenovo’s Yoga) are not counted as Tablets.
Tablet Shipments Slow in the Second Quarter As Vendors Look To Capitalize on a Strong Second Half of 2013, According to IDC [press release, Aug 5, 2013]
As expected, worldwide tablet shipment growth slowed in the second quarter of 2013 (2Q13), according to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation (IDC)Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker. Worldwide tablet shipments finally experienced a sequential decline as total volumes fell -9.7% from 1Q13. However, the 45.1 million units shipped in the second quarter was up 59.6% from the same quarter in 2012, when tablet vendors shipped 28.3 million devices.
Lacking a new product launch in March to help spur shipments, Apple’s iPad saw a lower-than-predicted shipment total of 14.6 million units for the quarter, down from 19.5 million in 1Q13. In years past, Apple has launched a new tablet heading into the second quarter, which resulted in strong quarter-over-quarter growth. Now, Apple is expected to launch new tablet products in the second half of the year, a move that better positions it to compete during the holiday season. Meanwhile, the other two vendors in the top 3 also saw a decline in their unit shipments during the quarter. Second-place Samsung shipped 8.1 million units, down from 8.6 million in the first quarter of 2013, although up significantly from the 2.1 million units shipped in 2Q12. And third-place ASUS shipped a total of 2.0 million units in 2Q13, down from 2.6 million in 1Q13.
“A new iPad launch always piques consumer interest in the tablet category and traditionally that has helped both Apple and its competitors,” said Tom Mainelli, Research Director, Tablets at IDC. “With no new iPads, the market slowed for many vendors, and that’s likely to continue into the third quarter. However, by the fourth quarter we expect new products from Apple, Amazon, and others to drive impressive growth in the market.”
Not all vendors experienced a slowdown during the quarter. PC stalwarts Lenovo and Acer both re-entered the top five this quarter. Lenovo continued to make headway into the world of mobility and for the first time had shipments surpass the million unit mark in a quarter, shipping a total of 1.5 million devices. This was up 313.9% from a year ago and enough to capture 3.3% market share. Rounding out the top 5 was Acer, which shipped 1.4 million tablets in 2Q13 for 247.9% year-over-year growth and an increase of 35.4% over the first quarter of 2013.
“The tablet market is still evolving and vendors can rise and fall quickly as a result,” said Ryan Reith, Program Manager for IDC’s Mobility Tracker programs. “Apple aside, the remaining vendors are still very much figuring out which platform strategy will be successful over the long run. To date, Android has been far more successful than the Windows 8 platform. However, Microsoft-fueled products are starting to make notable progress into the market.”
Top Five Tablet Vendors, Shipments, and Market Share, Second Quarter 2013 (Shipments in millions)
Vendor
2Q13 Unit Ship-ments
2Q13 Market Share
2Q12 Unit Ship-ments
2Q12 Market Share
Year-over-Year Growth
1. Apple
14.6
32.4%
17.0
60.3%
-14.1%
2.Samsung
8.1
18.0%
2.1
7.6%
277.0%
3. ASUS
2.0
4.5%
0.9
3.3%
120.3%
4. Lenovo
1.5
3.3%
0.4
1.3%
313.9%
5. Acer
1.4
3.1%
0.4
1.4%
247.9%
Others
17.5
38.8%
7.4
26.2%
136.6%
Total
45.1
100.0%
28.3
100.0%
59.6%
Source: IDC Worldwide Tablet Tracker, August 5, 2013.
See additional Table Notes following the last table.
Top Tablet Operating Systems, Shipments, and Market Share, Second Quarter 2013 (Shipments in Millions)
Vendor
2Q13 Unit Ship-ments
2Q13 Market Share
2Q12 Unit Ship-ments
2Q12 Market Share
Year-over-Year Growth
1. Android
28.2
62.6%
10.7
38.0%
162.9%
2. iOS
14.6
32.5%
17.0
60.3%
-14.1%
3.Windows
1.8
4.0%
0.3
1.0%
527.0%
4. Windows RT
0.2
0.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
5.BlackBerry OS
0.1
0.3%
0.2
0.7%
-32.8%
Others
0.1
0.2%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total
45.1
100.0%
28.3
100.0%
59.6%
Source: IDC Worldwide Tablet Tracker, August 5, 2013
Table Notes:
- All data are preliminary and subject to change. Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors.
- Some IDC estimates prior to financial earnings reports.
- Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the vendor/brand under which they are sold.
- IDC considers all LCD-based slate devices with screens between 7 and 16 inches as tablets, regardless of whether or not they include a removable keyboard (such as the Surface RT). Convertible devices with non-removable keyboards (such as Lenovo’s Yoga) are not counted as Tablets.
Gartner: ‘Traditional PC shipments to decline as tablets are becoming the primary consumption device’
Gartner Says Worldwide PC, Tablet and Mobile Phone Shipments to Grow 5.9 Percent in 2013 as Anytime-Anywhere-Computing Drives Buyer Behavior [press release, June 24, 2013]
Traditional PC Shipments to Decline 10.6 Percent in 2013, While Tablet Shipments Increase 67.9 Percent
Worldwide devices (the combined shipments of PCs, tablets and mobile phones) are projected to reach 2.35 billion units in 2013, a 5.9 percent increase from 2012, according to Gartner, Inc. The market is being driven by sales in tablets, smartphones, and to a lesser extent, ultramobiles, as PC shipments are on the decline.
Worldwide traditional PC (desk-based and notebook) shipments are forecast to total 305 million units in 2013, a 10.6 percent decline from 2012 , while the PC market including ultramobiles is forecast to decline 7.3 percent in 2013 (see Table 1). Tablet shipments are expected to grow 67.9 percent, with shipments reaching 202 million units, while the mobile phone market will grow 4.3 percent, with volume of more than 1.8 billion units. The sharp decline in PC sales recorded in the first quarter was the result in a change in preferences in consumers’ wants and needs, but also an adjustment in the channel to make room for new products hitting the market in the second half of 2013.
“Consumers want anytime-anywhere computing that allows them to consume and create content with ease, but also share and access that content from a different portfolio of products. Mobility is paramount in both mature and emerging markets,” said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner.
Table 1
Worldwide Devices Shipments by Segment (Thousands of Units)
Device Type
2012
2013
2014
PC (Desk-Based and Notebook)
341,273
305,178
289,239
Ultramobile
9,787
20,301
39,824
Tablet
120,203
201,825
276,178
Mobile Phone
1,746,177
1,821,193
1901,188
Total
2,217,440
2,348,497
2,506,429
Source: Gartner (June 2013)
Demand for ultramobiles (which includes Chromebooks, thin and light clamshell designs, and slate and hybrid devices running Windows 8) will come from upgrades of both notebooks and premium tablets, such as the Apple iPad or Galaxy Tab10.1. Analysts said ultramobile devices are gaining in attractiveness and drawing demand away from other devices. This will be even more evident in the fourth quarter of 2013 when the combination of new design based on Intel processors Bay Trail and Haswell running on Windows 8.1 will hit the market. Although these devices will only marginally help overall sales volumes initially, they are expected to help vendors increase average selling prices (ASPs) and margins.
The tablet and smartphone markets are facing some challenges as these devices gain longer life cycles. There has also been a shift as many consumers go from premium tablets to basic tablets. The share of basic tablets is expected to increase faster than anticipated, as sales of the iPad Mini already represented 60 percent of overall iOS tablet sales in the first quarter of 2013.
“The increased availability of lower priced basic tablets, plus the value add shifting to software rather than hardware will result in the lifetimes of premium tablets extending as they remain active in the household for longer. We will also see consumer preferences split between basic tablets and ultramobile devices,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. “With mobile phones, volume expectations for 2013 have been brought down as the life cycles lengthen as consumers wait for new models and lower prices to hit the market in the Fall and holiday season. The challenge in the smartphone market is also that, as penetration moves more and more to the mass market, price points are lowering and in most cases so do margins.”
“Although the numbers seem to paint a clear picture of who the winner will be when it comes to operating systems (OS) in the device market (see Table 2), the reality is that today ecosystem owners are challenged in having the same relevance in all segments,” said Ms. Milanesi. “Apple is currently the more homogeneous presence across all device segments, while 90 percent of Android sales are currently in the mobile phone market and 85 percent of Microsoft sales are in the PC market.”
Table 2
Worldwide Devices Shipments by Operating System (Thousands of Units)
Operating System
2012
2013
2014
Android
505,509
866,781
1,061,270
Windows
346,464
339,545
378,142
iOS/MacOS
212,878
296,356
354,849
RIM
34,584
25,224
22,291
Others
1,118,004
820,592
689,877
Total
2,217,440
2,348,497
2,506,429
Source: Gartner (June 2013)
Additionally, with enterprises’ growing acceptance of bring your own device (BYOD), there is an increase in consumer-owned devices in the computing world. Gartner forecasts that computing devices bought by consumers will grow from 65 percent in 2013 to 72 percent in 2017. This signifies the growing importance of designing for the consumer inside the enterprise.
Gartner’s detailed market forecast data is available in the report, “Forecast: Devices by Operating System and User Type, Worldwide, 2010-2017, 2Q13 Update.” The report is on Gartner’s website athttp://www.gartner.com/resId=2524916.
Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments in the Second Quarter of 2013 Declined 10.9 Percent [press release, July 10, 2013]
PC Industry Continues to Shrink as the Installed Base Restructures to Accommodate Tablets as the Primary Consumption Device
Worldwide PC shipments dropped to 76 million units in the second quarter of 2013, a 10.9 percent decrease from the same period last year, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of declining shipments, which is the longest duration of decline in the PC market’s history.
All regions showed a decline compared to a year ago. The fall in the Asia/Pacific PC market continued, showing five consecutive quarters of the shipment decline, while the EMEA PC market registered two consecutive quarters of double-digit decline.
“We are seeing the PC market reduction directly tied to the shrinking installed base of PCs, as inexpensive tablets displace the low-end machines used primarily for consumption in mature and developed markets,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “In emerging markets, inexpensive tablets have become the first computing device for many people, who at best are deferring the purchase of a PC. This is also accounting for the collapse of the mini notebook market.”
HP and Lenovo’s neck-and-neck competition continued. This time, Lenovo was back in the top position by only a small difference in share (see Table 1). Lenovo showed mixed regional results, as it experienced strong growth in the Americas and EMEA, while showing a major decline in Asia/Pacific. Weakness in China was most likely the contributor of Lenovo’s shipment decline in the region as the majority of Lenovo’s volume came from China.
While HP was slightly behind Lenovo, HP is a market leader in key regions including the U.S., EMEA and Latin America. Asia/Pacific has been a weakness the last three years for HP, but preliminary second quarter results suggest an improvement of their performance in the region.
Table 1
Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2Q13 (Units)
Company
2Q13 Ship-ments
2Q13 Market Share (%)
2Q12 Ship-ments
2Q12 Market Share (%)
2Q12-2Q13 Growth (%)
Lenovo
12,677,265
16.7
12,755,068
14.9
-0.6
HP
12,402,887
16.3
13,028,822
15.3
-4.8
Dell
8,984,634
11.8
9,349,171
11.0
-3.9
Acer Group
6,305,000
8.3
9,743,663
11.4
-35.3
ASUS
4,590,071
6.0
5,772,043
6.8
-20.5
Others
31,041,130
40.8
34,675,824
40.6
-10.5
Total
76,000,986
100.0
85,324,591
100.0
-10.9
Note: Data includes desk-based PCs and mobile PCs, including mini-notebooks but not media tablets such as the iPad.
Source: Gartner (July 2013)
Dell’s shipments declined compared to a year ago, but its 2Q13 results showed a smaller decline than the past several quarters. Dell showed good growth in the U.S. and Japan, but struggled to increase shipments in Asia/Pacific and EMEA. Both Acer and ASUS showed steep declines compared to the second quarter last year. The decline was partly affected by their strategies to exit the mini-notebook market.
“While Windows 8 has been blamed by some as the reason for the PC market’s decline, we believe this is unfounded as it does not explain the sustained decline in PC shipments, nor does it explain Apple’s market performance,” Ms. Kitagawa said.
In the U.S. market, PC shipments totaled 15 million units in the second quarter of 2013, a 1.4 percent decline from the second quarter of 2012 (see Table 2). This decline was less than the past seven quarters, and the market grew 8.5 percent sequentially.
“Our preliminary results indicate that this reduced market decline was attributed to solid growth in the professional market,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “Three of the major professional PC suppliers, HP, Dell and Lenovo, all registered better than U.S. average growth rate. The end of Windows XP support potentially drove the remaining PC refresh in the U.S. professional market.”
Table 2
Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2Q13 (Units)
Company
2Q13 Ship-ments
2Q13 Market Share (%)
2Q12 Ship-ments
2Q12 Market Share (%)
2Q12-2Q13 Growth (%)
HP
3,957,761
26.4
3,976,041
26.2
-0.5
Dell
3,681,725
24.6
3,458,736
22.8
6.4
Apple
1,740,500
11.6
1,818,959
12.0
-4.3
Lenovo
1,515,562
10.1
1,266,109
8.3
19.7
Toshiba
848,984
5.7
1,006,900
6.6
-15.7
Others
3,230,717
21.6
3,659,220
24.1
-11.7
Total
14,975,249
100.0
15,185,965
100.0
-1.4
Note: Data includes desk-based PCs and mobile PCs, including mini-notebooks but not media tablets such as the iPad.
Source: Gartner (July 2013)
PC shipments in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) were weakened in the second quarter of 2013, with a 16.8 per cent decline over the same period last year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of decreasing shipments.
“The sharp decline in the second quarter of 2013 was partly due to the shift in usage patterns away from notebooks to tablets, and partly because the PC market was exposed to inventory reductions in the channel due to the start of the transition to new Haswell-based products,” said Isabelle Durand, principal research analyst at Gartner. “Touch-based notebooks still account for less than 10 per cent of the total consumer notebook shipments in the last quarter.”
“Shipment levels remained weak in Western Europe in the second quarter of 2013 as PC replacement rates continued to be extremely low, while the challenging economic environment is muting spending in consumer markets,” said Ms Durand. “Shipments in Eastern Europe also remained low as this is typically a quiet quarter for business buyers in the region, and consumers are predominantly looking for Android-based tablets. In the Middle East and Africa, tablet and smartphone adoption also continued to draw demand away from PCs in the second quarter of 2013.”
Despite the steep shipment decline, HP retained the top position in EMEA due to better results in the professional PC market. Lenovo was the only top five vendor to exhibit shipment growth, recording a fourth consecutive quarter of growth and taking second place in the EMEA PC vendor rankings in the second quarter of 2013.
Acer exhibited the worst performance of the second quarter with a shipment decline of 38.5 percent year-on-year. Most of Acer’s decline resulted from its portfolio shifting away from netbooks to Android tablets. ASUS also experienced a PC shipment decline in the second quarter 2013. The drop of its netbooks continued to impact its overall notebook results.
Table 3
Preliminary EMEA PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2Q13 (Units)
Company
2Q13 Ship-ments
2Q13 Market Share (%)
2Q12 Ship-ments
2Q12 Market Share (%)
2Q12-2Q13 Growth (%)
HP
3,779,160
17.8
4,683,376
18.3
-19.3
Lenovo
2,641,622
12.4
2,180,362
8.5
21.2
Acer Group
2,456,255
11.5
3,995,518
15.6
-38.5
Dell
1,979,895
9.3
2,173,552
8.5
-8.9
ASUS
1,743,345
8.2
2,670,268
10.4
-34.7
Others
8,675,143
40.8
9,864,285
38.6
-12.1
Total
21,275,420
100.0
25,567,361
100.0
-16.8
Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs and mobile PCs, including x86 tablets equipped with Windows 8. All data is estimated, based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on the shipments selling into channels.
Source: Gartner (July 2013)
In Asia/Pacific, PC shipments surpassed 26.8 million units in the second quarter of 2013, an 11.5 percent decline from the first quarter of 2012. All country markets across the region showed weakness, but India performed slightly better due to a state PC tender fulfillment. China’s PC shipment remained weak as the consumer market was hampered with lack of new demand generation programs, such as subsidized PC program in the rural cities.
These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner’s PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe. Additional research can be found on Gartner’s Computing Hardware section on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/it/products/research/asset_129157_2395.jsp.
Digitimes Research: ‘Overtaking iPad will happen in 2H13’
Digitimes Research: iPad sees its first on-year shipment drop in 2Q13 [July 29, 2013]
Global tablet shipments reached 29.32 million units in the second quarter of 2013, down 8.2% sequentially, but still up 46.6% compared to the same period a year ago. As overall market demand is declining, both iPad and non-iPad product shipments have been impacted. Because of the iPad mini’s significant shipment drop, Apple’s tablet shipments in the second quarter were only 14.6 million units, down 25.1% sequentially and 2.7% on year, according to Digitimes Research’s latest figures.
As for non-iPad tablet shipments, non-Apple brand vendors’ new products and the second-generation Nexus 7 have both contributed to the volume, helping it to grow 18.5% on quarter and reach 14.72 million units. However, since Samsung Electronics and Lenovo have both increased their in-house production rates, Taiwan’s share of global tablet shipments dropped below 70% in the second quarter with shipments of only 20.38 million units, Digitimes Research figures showed.
In terms of brand vendors’ ranking, Apple and Samsung Electronics were the top-two players, followed by Asustek Computer third, Lenovo fourth and Acer sixth. As for processor rankings, MediaTek was the third-largest supplier in the second quarter thanks to its strategy of pushing mainly in the entry-level segment, only behind Apple and Texas Instruments (TI). Nvidia was the fourth largest with Samsung and Intel following closely behind.
Digitimes Research: Tablet shipments to grow 17.7% on year in 2H13 [Aug 6, 2013]
Tablet shipments in the second half are expected to reach 82.07 million units, up 17.7% on year; however, several changes will also occur during the period: hardware brand vendors will dominate the small-size tablet segment; non-iPad tablet shipments will surpass those of iPad; closed Android platforms will be impacted by the official Android platform; and Qualcomm and MediaTek will replace Texas Instruments (TI) and Nvidia in the non-Apple camp, according to Digitimes Research’s latest figures.
Small-size devices are expected to become mainstream products of the tablet market, accounting for 70% of total shipments in the second half. Non-iPad tablet shipments are also expected to surpass those of iPad and reach 45.07 million units. With the non-iPad camp’s strong shipments, over 50% of global tablets will adopt the Android operating system in the second half, Digitimes Research estimates.
Android’s large market share will also strongly impact closed Android platforms such as Amazon’s operating system for its tablets due to lack of key application support.
The Retina display-featured iPad mini may not appear before the end of 2013 due to the panel’s weak yield rate and the possibility that the device may undermine sales of the new high-end iPad. As a result, Apple’s shipments in the second half may drop to 37 million units with an on-year growth of 3%.
As for Windows-based tablets, although Microsoft is offering more price cuts for its Small Screen Touch (SST) program, the deal is unlikely to help push vendors to release Windows-based devices and the platform will only account for 3.8% of second-half tablet shipments.
Qualcomm became the processor supplier of the second-generation Nexus 7 and the third-generation Kindle Fire, replacing Nvidia and TI. Qualcomm will ship close to 10 million processors in the second half of 2013, becoming the largest CPU supplier of the non-Apple camp. MediaTek, thanks to its hardware brand clients’ small-size tablet orders, will become the second largest supplier, followed by Samsung Electronics and Intel, both of whom will ship over seven million units.
Taiwan makers’s tablet shipments will reach 59.45 million units in the second half, but as Samsung and Lenovo are increasing their in-house production rates, Taiwan makers’ share of global tablet shipments will drop to around 70%. As ODMs are aggressively competing for orders, Apple, Amazon and Asustek Computer will no longer place most of their orders with only Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry) and Quanta Computer and will spread out their orders more evenly, Digitimes Research believes.
Canalys says ‘Yes’
Small tablets drive big share gains for Android [Canalys press release, Aug 1, 2013]
– Android overtakes iOS with 53% market share in tablets
Over 34 million tablets shipped in Q2 2013, a 43% year-on-year increase. Tablets now account for 31% of worldwide PC shipments. But Apple’s performance faltered. Its tablet shipments declined 14% on Q2 2012 and its market share dropped to 43%. The chasing pack of Samsung, Amazon, Lenovo and Acer each grew annually by over 200%, driven by increasing demand for small-screen tablets. Canalys estimates that 68% of tablets shipped in Q2 had a screen size smaller than 9″. ‘Consumers have been evaluating tablets and the results are now in,’ said Tim Coulling, Canalys Senior Analyst. ‘With touch-screens contributing to a high proportion of the build cost of a tablet, small-screen products can be priced very aggressively.’
Apple’s decline in shipments and share has been partly attributed to its aging portfolio. But Canalys believes that new product launches will have less impact on its shipments in future. ‘When Apple does decide to refresh its iPad range it will not experience the buzz of previous launches,’ said Canalys Analyst James Wang. ‘Tablets are now mainstream products and hardware innovation is increasingly difficult. With branded Android tablets available for less than $150, the PC market has never been so good for consumers, who are voting with their wallets.’ The move to smaller tablets has sparked a price war that has real consequences for the entire supply chain. These products generate little absolute margin for channel partners, vendors or component manufacturers. Content, applications and accessories (especially cases and keyboards) are now even more important to boost margins – areas where Apple remains a leader.
In addition to disappearing margins, inventory management is emerging as a major challenge. If a vendor overcommits at the product planning stage, unsold inventory can play havoc with a company’s balance sheet, even with other hit products in a portfolio. The market for full-sized tablets has stalled and even Apple has found it harder to sell its larger iPads in recent quarters. ‘Microsoft’s inventory issues with the Surface have been well publicized,’ said Coulling. ‘Heavily discounted Surface RTs will fly off the shelves. Expect prices to continue to fall though, as the starting price of $350 is still too expensive to spark an HP TouchPad-style buying frenzy.’
Despite its 53% share, Android still lags far behind iOS in the availability of fully-optimized tablet apps, and tablet app downloads from the Apple App Store dwarf those from Google Play. But Android is expected to continue to close the ecosystem lead iOS has in tablets and increase share in coming quarters. ‘Developers can and will quickly switch their priorities as different opportunities evolve and improve,’ said Canalys Senior Analyst Tim Shepherd. ‘We expect to see a substantial increase in the quantity, as well as the quality, of apps built or optimized for Android tablets over the next 12 months, as Google brings more attention to them through improvements to the Play store, and as the addressable base of devices continues to soar.’
While it is true that Apple is losing its stranglehold on the tablet market in terms of volume, it will remain its most profitable vendor for years to come. Apple has already faced a similar battle in the smart phone market, and it now looks increasingly likely that it is readying a product that can address lower price tiers and high-growth markets in that space. If this is indeed the case, Apple could replicate a similar portfolio play in the tablet market. It will be in no rush – after all, the launch of the iPad mini was designed to address this segment. But its hand could be forced if competitors’ prices continue to plummet. The margin models in the smart phone and tablet markets are very different. It will still make good margin on a cheaper iPhone but will struggle to do so with a cheaper tablet, and would instead need to rely increasingly on accessory sales and, likely, subsidy from apps and content purchases.
PC market flat in Q2 2013, despite tablet growth [Canalys press release, Aug 6, 2013]
– Android takes 17% of PC market in Q2 as PC vendors turn to Google for tablets
The worldwide PC market experienced a quarter without growth, as a 42.9% increase in tablet shipments was offset by declines in desktop and notebook shipments, which fell 7.4% and 13.9% respectively. Despite tablet growth slowing in Q2, Canalys still believes that tablets will outsell notebooks by Q4 of this year.
PC shipments in EMEA fell by 3% year-on-year in Q2, the first decline after two successive quarters of double-digit growth. Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe continue to be challenging for vendors, with annual declines of 10% and 3% respectively. PC shipments in the Asia Pacific region declined 0.5% year-on-year to just over 40 million units. The region was badly affected by slow shipments in the People’s Republic of China, which accounted for almost 45% of the region’s shipments and declined by approximately 6%. Demand for smart phones and tablets is increasing around the world. Faced by an industry in transition, channel partners are exercising caution when planning and placing orders.
Apple remained the top PC vendor in Q2, with a 4.5 million unit lead over second-placed Lenovo. But Apple’s share fell more than two percentage points to 17.1% from 19.4% in Q2 last year due an annual decrease in iPad shipments. Desktop and notebook shipments only accounted for around 20% of its total PC shipments. With tablet vendors attacking Apple on price it must bring fresh innovation to future generations of its iPad range if it is to maintain the lead it has built in the PC market.
Lenovo had a strong quarter, gaining share in its core notebook and desktop categories, as well as tablets. Its performance in Q2 was helped by strong annual growth in EMEA (34%), the US (28%) and Latin America (93%). Lenovo’s tablet business also performed well – it shipped around 1.5 million units. ‘It is striking how successful it has been in globalizing its PC business and breaking the 1 million unit barrier is an important milestone for its tablet shipments,’ noted Canalys Analyst James Wang. ‘Lenovo is on an upward curve with its tablets, expanding in mainland China and Latin America, where there is little competition from the likes of Google or Amazon.’
HP has overtaken Samsung to regain third place. HP has recently changed its tablet strategy and launched its first Android tablet in Q2, the Slate 7. ‘HP has a broad enterprise portfolio, channel relationships and global reach that others still cannot match,’ said Canalys Research Analyst Pin-Chen Tang. ‘To increase its market share it should look to leverage its strengths in the enterprise to advance Android in business.’
iOS and Android have profited from the shift to tablets, as they have proved to be the only type of PC with any momentum. Android’s share of the total PC market increased to 17% in Q2 2013 from 6% a year ago. With the likes of HP, Lenovo and Samsung looking to use Android to compete with iOS in the tablet space, the platform is well placed to continue increasing its share. Google is targeting the consumer market and has its sights set on beating Apple in the smart phone and tablet space. Android remains weak in management and security, which is preventing commercial uptake. Google, or its partners, must address this shortfall quickly if it is to penetrate the enterprise
There has been rapid innovation in the Windows category, as vendors such as HP, Lenovo, Toshiba and Acer have built PCs using a variety of new form factors. These products are struggling to take off as the difference in price between Android and Windows-based tablets remains high. ‘Component pricing has been an issue, particularly with multi-touch screens, though scale economies make this less of an issue as demand increases. The price of Windows itself is a contributing factor and one that Microsoft must address as a matter of urgency. Its PC OEM partners are in an increasingly difficult position and consolidation in the PC market is inevitable within the next 12 months,’ said Tim Coulling, Canalys Senior Analyst.
Half a billion PCs to ship in 2013 as tablet sales rocket [Canalys press release, June 11, 2013] – Tablet shipments to grow by 59% this year to reach 182.5 million units
Canalys’ latest forecasts for the PC market (desktops, notebooks and tablets) predict that 493.1 million units will ship in 2013, representing 7% year-on-year growth. The key driver behind this growth will be tablets, which will account for 37% of the market, up from a quarter in 2012. Looking ahead to 2017, Canalys expects that 713.8 million PCs will ship worldwide (a CAGR of 9.7%), with 64% being tablets and 25% notebooks.
Worldwide demand for tablets has gone from strength to strength, while that for desktops and notebooks has waned. In the first quarter of 2013, the desktop market fell 10.3% and the notebook market declined 13.1%. The size of the tablet market, however, more than doubled in Q1 2013, with a 106.1% increase in shipments to 41.9 million units. Shipments show no sign of slowing and Canalys forecasts that in 2013 tablet shipments will reach 182.5 million units, with global tablet shipments surpassing those of notebooks in the final quarter of the year.
The reception to Windows 8 has not reinvigorated demand for Microsoft-based PCs but there is a glimmer of hope for OEMs with Microsoft’s plan to release Windows 8.1 as a free upgrade. ‘Microsoft will continue to innovate. New versions will come and its OS release cycle will gain speed. But it must address some of the criticisms that have been directed at the OS’s user interface or it risks losing even more ground to iOS and Android in the PC space,’ said Tim Coulling, Senior Analyst at Canalys.
A plethora of PC vendors have now come to market with cheaper Android devices, notably Acer, Asus and HP, but these vendors are joining a crowded market. ‘Shipment numbers can be high but absolute margins on these products are expected to be small. Low-priced tablets will not be lucrative but it is necessary to compete or a vendor will simply lose relevance and scale. In fact, accessories, particularly cases, as well as the new generation of high-tech ‘appcessories’ will likely provide higher margins than the products themselves,’ said Pin-Chen Tang, Research Analyst. ‘This new influx of Android devices will provide a boost to the platform and
Canalysthereforeexpects Android to take a 45% share this year, behind Apple at 49%[this prediction failed already for Q2 results as was reported on Aug 1 by Canalys: ‘Android overtakes iOS with 53% market share in tablets‘]. The iPad mini is expected to continue selling well, becoming more significant in terms of the product mix and spawning a further increase in consumer demand for smaller tablets.’The great hope for Windows 8 was that it would unleash new PC form factors, combining the best of both PCs and tablets. But James Wang, an Analyst at Canalys, noted, ‘These convertible products have disappointed so far. Convertibles are too heavy in tablet form and too expensive when compared with clamshell products. Canalys therefore expects that, for at least the next 18 months, consumers will buy separate products, rather than compromise on a Windows 8 convertible or hybrid PC. Even for Android products, alternative form factors are not expected to grow rapidly due to the category being sandwiched between low-cost slates and more familiar Windows-based clamshell notebooks.’ Out of the 388.1 million mobile PCs (notebooks and tablets) that Canalys forecasts will ship in 2013, it estimates that less than 2% will be hybrids or convertibles.
Another ray of light for PC vendors is that PC sales to businesses are, and will continue to be, far stronger than those to consumers. This trend favors the likes of HP and Lenovo, though competition will increase as others shift resources toward the commercial channels to maximize their opportunity.
Canalys definitions
Appcessories: Products that connect to applications on smart devices (smart phones, tablets and notebook PCs).
Clamshell: A notebook with keyboard/second screen fixed with a one-directional hinge only enabling movement up to 180⁰.
Convertible: A notebook with keyboard/second screen that can be converted to a tablet form factor.
Slate: A tablet that is not designed by its manufacturer to be fixed to a keyboard accessory with a hinge.
Hybrid: A tablet that is designed by its manufacturer to be fixed to a keyboard accessory with a hinge.
About Canalys
Canalys is an independent analyst firm that strives to guide clients on the future of the technology industry and to think beyond the business models of the past. We deliver smart market insights to IT, channel and service provider professionals around the world. Our customer-driven analysis and consulting services empower businesses to make informed decisions and generate sales. We stake our reputation on the quality of our data, our innovative use of technology, and our high level of customer service.
EnfoDesk (Analysys International) from China says ‘For sure, as it is already happening against the iPad in China even at a nascent stage of the local tablet market’
Industry data: 2013Q2 Chinese Tablet PC market sales of 3.58 million, the rapid expansion of domestic [products], apple [products] decline significantly [enfodesk.com, Aug 14, 2013] as translated by Google and Bing, with manual edits:
According to Analysys think tank EnfoDesk latest monitoring data shows that in the second quarter of 2013 tablet PC sales in China reached 3,576,000 units, up 5.2% Q/Q growth.
According to Analysis think tank EnfoDesk in the last quarter of 2013 sales growth on the tablet PC market in China slowed down to only 5.2% Q/Q growth rate, mainly due to weak sales of Apple’s tablet computers, as its sales fell for the first time. And Samsung had eye-catching performance this quarter, after N5110 Galaxy Note 8 has been released, and sought after by the market, so the Samsung Tablet PC overall sales increased dramatically, pulling the overall market growth. Worth mentioning this quarter is that domestic brand tablet PCs, such as Teclast (台电) [see Teclast’s Tmall site in Chinese, or Pandawill’ Teclast global online site in English] and ONDA (昂达) [see ONDA’s global site in English] have gained more market share with their low prices, ultra high yield of price/performance, and best selling online channels.
Throughout the three major tablet platforms, iOS declined significantly, it will be difficult to stop its market share erosion trends; Windows was tepid, the release of Microsoft Surface and continuous price cuts did not enhance the Windows market activity; Android cut right through the market, by virtue of many manufacturers to compete, high performance models being abundant, covering all price points of consumer groups, and with product prices constantly being refreshed, quickly seized the tablet PC market. If Apple can not launch innovative tablet PC products in the near future, [the event of] Android surpassing iOS market share is around the corner.
Compare this to the situation in 2012:
- China market: Apple shares over 71% of 4Q12 consumer tablet sales, says Analysys [DIGITIMES, April 19, 2013]
Apple occupied 71.6% of consumer tablets sold in the China market during the fourth quarter of 2012, according to China-based Analysys International.
For business-use tablets alone, Eben had the largest market share at 41.9%, followed by Samsung Electronics with 21.0%, Asustek Computer with 6.6% and Lenovo with 4.5%, Analysys indicated.
Vendor
Market share
Apple
71.6%
Lenovo
10.2%
Eben
4.0%
Samsung
3.9%
Acer
2.3%
Asustek
1.5%
Teclast
1.0%
Source: Analysys, compiled by Digitimes, April 2013
- Analysys International: iPad Sales Share Fell in Q3, 2012 [Analysys International, published in English on May 17, 2013]
According to the Quarterly Survey of China’s Tablet PC Market 2012Q3, 2.60 million sets tablet PC have been sold in Chinese market in Q3, 2012. Apple occupied 71.4% market share with a slight drop, Lenovo ranked second, reaching 10.52% and Ereneben ranked third with its market share being 3.61% and Samsung ranked fourth, taking up 3.53% market share.
EnfoDesk, Analysys International finds that 4 factors require our attention concerning China’s tablet PC manufacturers’ market layout in Q3, 2012:
- Compared with last quarter, Apple’s market share dropped from 72.66% to 71.42%. New iPad marketing promotions were made mainly in Q2. In Q3, iPad 2and The New iPad were in normal sales.
- The sales volume of Lenovo tablet PC rose considerably with its market share being 10.52%. Such a growth is resulted from the issue of its new products S2107 and S2109 and promotions when new semester begins for students.
- Ereneben issued its new product T5 in Q3, which drives the overall sales volume, and the price of T4 came down slightly in some provinces, thus increasing the sales volume of Ereneben.
- Samsung tablet PC enjoyed relatively stable sales in Chinese market. The company doubled their efforts in the marketing of tablet PC Note series (7 inches or above versions). Its branding effects gradually brought about and increased its sales in the Chinese market.
Besides, the research on e-business tablet PC market conducted by EnfoDesk, Analysys International shows that Ereneben ranked first with market share being 41.07%. Samsung offered Galaxy Note 10.1 e-tablet PC to consolidate its positioning in e-business tablet PC market. Its market share was 19.66% of total e-tablet PC market. Lenovo’s Thinkpad was in normal sales, only occupied 3.89% market share.
…
Analysys International: iPad took up 73% of Tablet PC Market 2012Q2 [Analysis International, published in English on May 16, 2013]
According to the Quarterly Survey of Tablet Market in China 2012Q2, released by EnfoDesk, Analysys International, market share of Apple rose to 72.66% with a sequential growth rate rising by 20.06%. Top 2 was Lenovo that witness a drop of its market share (Its market share was 8.38%). Eben ranked third with its market share being 3.63% and the market share of Samsung came down to 3.59% with its sequential growth rate dropping by 7.69%.
EnfoDesk Analysys International believes that three aspects should be noticed concerning the market layout of tablet PC market in Q2, 2012.
First, the market share of Apple has risen from 65.21% in Q1 to 72.66% in Q2. New iPad came into the market in March; however, since no substantial improvement has been made on the new products, consumers would rather wait to buy in Q2. The price reduction of iPad 2 promoted the sales volume of Apple products, allowing its market share to grow.
Second, compared with Q1, market share of Lenovo shrank. On one hand, it was a dull season; on the other hand, it was caused by its internal policy. In September, Lenovo will launch its promotion of new products when new term begins in September (during the peak season) and the company would rather clean up stocks of its other products in Q2.
Finally, iOS tablet PC suffers less seasonal factors than Android tablet PC. Currently, Android tablet PC market is getting stabilized. Solely relying on traditional sales channel to educate consumers was too slow and manufacturers could carry out more promotions to increase brand influence and brand concentration, grab the market share of smuggled products and clarify market layout of Android tablet PC. In addition, other tablet PC manufactures except Apple should consider its own market position and offer its unique products, gradually getting rid of homogenization of Android tablet PC. Eben as a leader in business tablet PC market offers unique products and its market positioning is clear.
…
- Analysys International: 2.34 Million Tablet PCs Were Sold in China 2012Q2 [Analysis International, published in English on May 16, 2013]
According to the statistics recently released by Analysys International, 2.34 million tablet PCs were sold in China in Q2, 2012. The sequential growth rate has reached 7.8%.
Analysys International holds that sales growth of China’s tablet PC in Q2, 2012(The growth rate has reached 7.8%) is due to the following factors:
iPad directly triggered the market fluctuation. The price reduction of iPad forced the average price of tablet PC to go down. As a result, consumers with cash in hand developed their desire to buy and such a desire transformed into procurement, which allowed the sales volume to grow in the dull season.
EnfoDesk, Analysys International predicts that the future market layout will be even clearer. Android manufacturers and others will target middle and low-end consumers with an attempt to avoid direct competition with Apple. Even though the sales volume of Apple will increase, its market share will continue to shrink. The market share of Android manufacturers is expected to grow and the market concentration will increase. The smuggled products will face the question of survival and the market will get further standardized.
Research Definitions
Tablet PC is a portable mobile internet device accessible to the network. It has independent mobile OS and is able to expand its applications. The screen ranges from 5 to 11 inch. Touch screen or pen is served as a basic input device.
The Sales Volume is tablet PC manufacturers’ sale in China, including some overseas brands which are sold by a purchasing agency (OEM labeling products is regarded as the labeled brand. Some device manufacturers also sell some products to market abroad. This part of sales volume is not calculated in the said report).
Research Statement
The industrial analyses, provided by Analysys International, mainly reflect the current situation, trend, inflection point, commercial law and manufacturers’ situation. The figures and statistics are drawn by adopting a unique industrial analysis model combined with the research and study methods used by market, industry and manufactures. All the data are based on industrial macro and historical data, seasonal end-users’ and business information.
It is believed that data concluded from research into market and trade is within acceptable errors. It can reflect the trend and commercial laws accurately.
Results obtained by the means of professional research methods are for reference. The actual data can be obtained by checking on financial report issued by manufacturers.
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With Android and forked Android smartphones as the industry standard Nokia relegated to a niche market status while Apple should radically alter its previous premium strategy for long term
Here is the chart reflecting the performance of the market-leading mobile phones upto Q2’13:
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From this the most visible things are:
- Android and Android-forked (Xiaomi etc.) smartphones are the undisputed industry standards to dominate the market in years to come
- Both the Symbian to Windows Phone and S40 to Asha Full Touch smartphone platform transition strategies from Nokia could survive the continued Android onslaught but only in a niche market status
- There is no room for Apple’s further growth, and both the platform and the company could face a gradual decline in the smartphone market
My other observations about the state of the smartphone market after Q2’13 were already presented in the following posts:
- Superphones turning point: segment satured with Tier 1 globals while the Chinese locals are at less than 40% of the Samsung price [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, Aug 3, 2013] OR Samsung is leapfrogging Apple while the Chinese local brands are coming close to Samsung but at less than 40% price. Meanwhile the superphone segment of the market becomes saturated.
- Xiaomi, OPPO and Meizu–top Chinese brands of smartphone innovation [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, Aug 1, 2013]
- GiONEE (金立), the emerging global competitor on the smartphone market [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, July 22, 2013]
- Eight-core MT6592 for superphones and big.LITTLE MT8135 for tablets implemented in 28nm HKMG are coming from MediaTek to further disrupt the operations of Qualcomm and Samsung [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, July 20-29, 2013]
- China: Entry-level dual core IPS WVGA (480×800) smartphones $65+ now, quad-core $70+ in June [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, April 29, 2013]
In essence we came to a point when the superphone market came down in price to as low as $110 and up, while the entry-level segment of good quality came down to a $65+ price level. Also the smartphone market became saturated in all segments which brings an end to Samsung’s ability to base its premium profitability ambitions on smartphones alone (almost), as it was reflected in 20 years of Samsung “New Management” as manifested by the latest, June 20th GALAXY & ATIV innovations [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, July 2-26, 2013]:
… innovations in the broadest sense of the world: technology, hardware and software engineering and design, marketing in general and branding in particular etc.
Updates: Q2 record-high operating profit + smartphone worries deepen + overall business situation + nonproportionally high capex of the semiconductor business + the #2 capex beneficiary, the Display Panel Segment
These observations also led to much greater conclusions about the upcoming changes:
- China is the epicenter of the mobile Internet world, so of the next-gen HTML5 web [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, Aug 5, 2013]
- The Upcoming Mobile Internet Superpower [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, Aug 13, 2013]
Below I will assess the ‘Nokia Q2’13 market situation and changes’ as well as include ‘Gartner’s own assessment of the Q2’13 overall market situation and the changes’ to complete the picture.
Nokia Q2’13 market situation and changes:
Looking at the progress of Nokia Symbian to Windows Phone transformation Q2’13 was a straight continuation of the trends noted for Q1’13 in Nokia: Continued moderate progress with Lumia, urgent Asha Touch refresh and new innovations to come against the onslaught of unbranded Android and forked Android players in China and India [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, April 18, 2013] as you could also well observe from the chart included here as well:
![]()
Nokia was extensively discussing its Windows Phone transition in Nokia Corporation Interim Report for Q2 2013 and January-June 2013 [press release, July 18, 2013]:
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Lumia Q2 volumes increased 32% quarter-on-quarter to 7.4 million units, reflecting strong demand from customers for a broadened Lumia product range.
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Commenting on the second quarter results, Stephen Elop, Nokia CEO, said: “ … In our Smart Devices business unit, we continue to focus on delivering meaningful differentiation to consumers around the world. We are very proud of the recent creations by our Lumia team, from the Lumia 520 – our most affordable Windows Phone 8 product which has enjoyed a strong start in markets like China, France, India, Thailand, the UK, the US and Vietnam – to the Lumia 1020, our star imaging product which we unveiled to the world last week. Overall, Lumia volumes grew to 7.4 million in the second quarter, the highest for any quarter so far and showing increasing momentum for the ecosystem. During the third quarter, we expect that our new Lumia products will drive a significant part of our Smart Devices revenue.”
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In the third quarter 2013, supported by the wider availability of recently announced Lumia products as well as recently announced Mobile Phones products, Nokia expects higher Devices & Services net sales, compared to the second quarter 2013.
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The year-on-year decline in our Smart Devices volumes in the second quarter 2013 continued to be driven by the strong momentum of competing smartphone platforms and our portfolio transition from Symbian products to Lumia products. The decline was primarily due to lower Symbian volumes, partially offset by higher Lumia volumes. Our Symbian volumes decreased from 6 million units in the second quarter 2012 to approximately zero in the second quarter 2013. Our Lumia volumes increased from 4.0 million in the second quarter 2012 to 7.4 million in the second quarter 2013.
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On a sequential basis, the increase in our Smart Devices volumes in the second quarter 2013 was due to higher Lumia volumes, as we started shipping the Lumia 520 and 720 in significant volumes. In the second quarter 2013, the vast majority of Smart Devices volumes were from Windows Phone 8-based Lumia products.
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The year-on-year increase in our Smart Devices ASP in the second quarter 2013 was primarily due to a positive mix shift towards sales of our Lumia products which carry a higher ASP than our Symbian products, partially offset by our pricing actions. Sequentially, the decrease in our Smart Devices ASP in the second quarter 2013 was primarily due to a negative mix shift towards sales of our lower priced Windows Phone 8-based Lumia products as well as our pricing actions.
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Nokia announced and started shipments in select markets of the Nokia Lumia 925, a new interpretation of its award-winning flagship, the Nokia Lumia 920. The Nokia Lumia 925 introduces metal for the first time to the Nokia Lumia range and includes the most advanced lens technology and next-generation imaging software to capture clearer and sharper pictures and video even in low light conditions. The Nokia Lumia 925 offers a variety of exclusive services such as Nokia Music for unlimited streaming of free playlists, integrated HERE services, and the option to add wireless charging with a snap-on wireless charging cover.
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Nokia announced the Nokia Lumia 928 smartphone, exclusive to Verizon Wireless. With a 8.7MP camera and Nokia’s PureView imaging innovation, the Nokia Lumia 928 delivers superior imaging and video performance that enables people to capture bright, blur free photos and videos, even in low light conditions. The sleek and stylish smartphone comes with the latest high-end Nokia Lumia experiences, including Nokia Music, HERE services, and built-in wireless charging.
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Nokia started shipping in volumes the Nokia Lumia 520, its most affordable Windows Phone 8 smartphone, delivering experiences normally found only in high-end smartphones, such as the same digital camera lenses found on the Nokia Lumia 920, Nokia Music for free music out of the box and even offline, and HERE services.
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Nokia’s Lumia range of smartphones continued to attract businesses, including Miele & Cie. KG, a global leader in domestic appliances and commercial machinery, which has chosen the Nokia Lumia range as the smartphone of choice for its global employees.
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The Windows Phone Store continued to strengthen in terms of the quantity and quality of applications. The Windows Phone Store today offers more than 165 000 applications and games.
The Q2’13-related improvements mentioned above and influencing the below chart were even more extensively discussed in my earlier posts:
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High-volume Nokia Lumia superphones with Windows Phone 8 extended on the top for China, and on the entry level needed for Asia and Middle-East as well UPDATE: at even lower price by 27% [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, Dec 5, 2012 – March 21, 2013] Note that the Lumia 520 W-CDMA mentioned there for ¥ 1299.00 [$209] is now (Aug 17) ¥ 899.00 [$147] while in India it is even lower priced at Rs 7,667+ [$124+]
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Nokia’s expanded, new risks and uncertainties for its Windows Phone strategy for 2013 [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, March 17, 2013]
while the Q3’13-related actions of improvements in these posts:
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Nokia Lumia 1020: an excellent case of Nokia’s contribution to Microsoft as a key innovation partner [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, July 12, 2013]
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Minutes of a high-octane but also expert evangelist CEO: Stephen Elop, Nokia [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, July 12, 2013]
Now look again at the performance chart for the reflections:
From the further decline of Asha Full Touch you could see that the Temporary Nokia setback in India [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, April 28, 2013] continued into the Q2’13 as well as the result of entry-level local brand Android smartphones being in heavy price competition with Nokia Asha Full Touch during Q2 while having superior hardware specifications. Even Samsung’s REX 70 competed in price with Asha Full Touch.
Nokia was talking in his Nokia Corporation Interim Report for Q2 2013 and January-June 2013 [press release, July 18, 2013] only about the following future-oriented actions that were introduced in Q2 in order to remedy this situation:
In Devices & Services, our Mobile Phones business unit started to demonstrate some signs of recovery in the latter part of the second quarter following a difficult start to the year. Also, towards the end of the second quarter, we started to ship the Asha 501, which brings a new design and user experience to the highly competitive sub-100 USD market. While we are very encouraged by the consumer response to our innovations in this price category, our Mobile Phones business unit is planning to take actions to focus its product offering and improve product competitiveness.
On a year-on-year basis, our Mobile Phones volumes in the second quarter 2013 were negatively affected by competitive industry dynamics, including intense smartphone competition at increasingly lower price points and intense competition at the low end of our product portfolio. Compared to the second quarter 2012, our Mobile Phones volumes declined across our portfolio, most notably for our non-full-touch devices that we sell to our customers for above EUR 30, partially offset by higher sales volumes of Asha full-touch smartphones.
Nokia started production at its new manufacturing facility in Hanoi, Vietnam. The new site has been established to produce our most affordable Asha smartphones and feature phones.
Nokia announced and started shipments of the Nokia Asha 501, the first of a new generation of smartphones to run on the new Asha platform. Retailing at a suggested price of USD 99, the Nokia Asha 501 offers users affordable smartphone design with bold color, a high-quality build and an innovative user interface. The new Asha platform also allows developers who write applications for the Nokia Asha 501 to reach all smartphones based on the new Asha platform without having to re-write code.
These things were already extensively discussed in my earlier posts:
- Nokia’s non-Windows crossroad [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, May 2, 2013]
- New Asha platform and ecosystem to deliver a breakthrough category of affordable smartphone from Nokia [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, May 9, 2013] my composite post of the all relevant launch information
- New Nokia Asha platform for developers [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, May 9, 2013] my composite post of the all relevant development platform information
- Nokia becoming the next Samsung from its new Vietnamese manufacturing base? [‘Experiencing the Cloud’, June 24, 2013]
And here is how Gartner was assessing the Q2’13 overall market situation and the changes:
Gartner Says Smartphone Sales Grew 46.5 Percent in Second Quarter of 2013 and Exceeded Feature Phone Sales for First Time [press release, Aug 14, 2013]
- Worldwide Mobile Phone Sales Grew 3.6 Percent in Second Quarter of 2013
- Microsoft Has Become the No. 3 Smartphone OS Overtaking BlackBerry
Worldwide mobile phone sales to end users totaled 435 million units in the second quarter of 2013, an increase of 3.6 percent from the same period last year, according to Gartner, Inc. Worldwide smartphone sales to end users reached 225 million units, up 46.5 percent from the second quarter of 2012. Sales of feature phones to end users totaled 210 million units and declined 21 percent year-over-year.
“Smartphones accounted for 51.8 percent of mobile phone sales in the second quarter of 2013, resulting in smartphone sales surpassing feature phone sales for the first time,” said Anshul Gupta, principal research analyst at Gartner. Asia/Pacific, Latin America and Eastern Europe exhibited the highest smartphone growth rates of 74.1 percent, 55.7 percent and 31.6 percent respectively, as smartphone sales grew in all regions.
Samsung maintained the No. 1 position in the global smartphone market, as its share of smartphone sales reached 31.7 percent, up from 29.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012 (see Table 1). Apple’s smartphone sales reached 32 million units in the second quarter of 2013, up 10.2 percent from a year ago.
Table 1
Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Vendor in 2Q13 (Thousands of Units)
Company
2Q13 Units
2Q13 Market Share (%)
2Q12 Units
2Q12 Market Share (%)
Samsung
71,380.9
31.7
45,603.8
29.7
Apple
31,899.7
14.2
28,935.0
18.8
LG Electronics
11,473.0
5.1
5,827.8
3.8
Lenovo
10,671.4
4.7
4,370.9
2.8
ZTE
9,687.6
4.3
6,331.4
4.1
Others
90,213.6
40.0
62,704.0
40.8
Total
225,326.2
100.0
153,772.9
100.0
Source: Gartner (August 2013)
In the smartphone operating system (OS) market (see Table 2), Microsoft took over BlackBerry for the first time, taking the No. 3 spot with 3.3 percent market share in the second quarter of 2013. “While Microsoft has managed to increase share and volume in the quarter, Microsoft should continue to focus on growing interest from app developers to help grow its appeal among users,” said Mr. Gupta. Android continued to increase its lead, garnering 79 percent of the market in the second quarter.
Table 2
Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System in 2Q13 (Thousands of Units)
Operating System
2Q13 Units
2Q13 Market Share (%)
2Q12 Units
2Q12 Market Share (%)
Android
177,898.2
79.0
98,664.0
64.2
iOS
31,899.7
14.2
28,935.0
18.8
Microsoft
7,407.6
3.3
4,039.1
2.6
BlackBerry
6,180.0
2.7
7,991.2
5.2
Bada
838.2
0.4
4,208.8
2.7
Symbian
630.8
0.3
9,071.5
5.9
Others
471.7
0.2
863.3
0.6
Total
225,326.2
100.0
153,772.9
100.0
Source: Gartner (August 2013)
Mobile Phone Vendor Perspective
Samsung: Samsung remained in the No. 1 position in the overall mobile phone market, with sales to end users growing 19 percent in the second quarter of 2013 (see Table 3). “We see demand in the premium smartphone market come mainly from the lower end of this segment in the $400-and-below ASP mark. It will be critical for Samsung to step up its game in the mid-tier and also be more aggressive in emerging markets. Innovation cannot be limited to the high end,” said Mr. Gupta.
Nokia: Slowing demand of feature phone sales across many markets worldwide, and fierce competition in the smartphone segment, affected Nokia’s mobile phone sales in the second quarter of 2013. Nokia’s mobile phone sales totaled 61 million units, down from 83 million units a year ago. Nokia’s Lumia sales grew 112.7 percent in the second quarter of 2013 thanks to its expanded Lumia portfolio, which now include Lumia 520 and Lumia 720. “With the recent announcement of the Lumia 1020, Nokia has built a wide portfolio of devices at multiple price points, which should boost Lumia sales in the second half of 2013,” said Mr. Gupta. “However, Nokia is facing tough competition from Android devices, especially from regional and Chinese manufacturers which are more aggressive in terms of price points.”
Apple: While sales continued to grow, the company faced a significant drop in the ASP of its smartphones. Despite the iPhone 5 being the most popular model, its ASP declined to the lowest figure registered by Apple since the iPhone’s launch in 2007. The ASP reduction is due to strong sales of the iPhone 4, which is sold at a strongly discounted price. “While Apple’s ASP demonstrates the need for a new flagship model, it is risky for Apple to introduce a new lower-priced model too,” said Mr. Gupta. “Although the possible new lower-priced device may be priced similarly to the iPhone 4 at $300 to $400, the potential for cannibalization will be much greater than what is seen today with the iPhone 4. Despite being seen as the less expensive sibling of the flagship product, it would represent a new device with the hype of the marketing associated with it.”
Lenovo: Lenovo’s mobile phone sales grew 60.6 percent to reach 11 million units in the second quarter of 2013. Lenovo’s quarter performance was bolstered by smartphone sales. Its smartphone sales grew 144 percent year-over-year and helped it rise to the No. 4 spot in the worldwide smartphone market for the first time. Lenovo continues to rely heavily on its home market in China, which represents more than 95 percent of its sales. It remains challenging for Lenovo to expand outside China as it has to strengthen its direct channel as well as its relationships with communications service providers.
Table 3
Worldwide Mobile Phone Sales to End Users by Vendor in 2Q13 (Thousands of Units)
Company
2Q13 Units
2Q13 Market Share (%)
2Q12 Units
2Q12 Market Share (%)
Samsung
107,526.0
24.7
90,432.1
21.5
Nokia
60,953.7
14.0
83,420.1
19.9
Apple
31,899.7
7.3
28,935.0
6.9
LG Electronics
17,016.4
3.9
14,345.4
3.4
ZTE
15,280.7
3.5
17,198.2
4.1
Huawei
11,275.1
2.6
10,894.2
2.6
Lenovo
10,954.8
2.5
6,821.7
1.6
TCL Communi-cation [Alcatel]
10,134.3
2.3
9,355.7
2.2
Sony Mobile Communications
9,504.7
2.2
7,346.8
1.7
Yulong [Coolpad]
7,911.5
1.8
4,016.2
1.0
Others
152,701.5
35.1
147,354.60
35.1
Total
435,158.4
100.0
420,120.0
100.0
Source: Gartner (August 2013)
“With second quarter of 2013 sales broadly on track, we see little need to adjust our expectations for worldwide mobile phone sales forecast to total 1.82 billion units this year. Flagship devices brought to market in time for the holidays, and the continued price reduction of smartphones will drive consumer adoption in the second half of the year,” said Mr. Gupta.
Additional information is in the Gartner report “Market Share Analysis: Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2Q13.” The report is available on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/document/2573119.
Google Play catchup with iOS App Store and its way of assuring compatibility across Android 1.6 to 4.3
OR Google Play, a digital application distribution platform for Android (the former Android Market) and an online electronics and digital media store, is still to catch up with the Apple iOS App Store in terms of top apps and revenue but coming on par with it in terms of downloads
Half of top iPad apps either unavailable or not optimized on Android [Canalys press release, Aug 14, 2013] – 30% of the top 50 free and paid iPad apps in the US are absent from Google Play
The top 20 app lists referenced in the Canalys press release, ‘Half of top iPad apps either unavailable or not optimized on Android’ (published 14 August 2013). You can dowload the full top 50 app lists HERE.
New Canalys’ App Interrogator research highlights one of the deficiencies of the Android ecosystem: limited availability of high-quality, tablet-optimized apps in the Google Play store. Of the top 50 paid and free iPad apps in Apple’s US App Store, based on aggregated daily rankings in the first half of 2013, 30% were absent from Google Play. A further 18% were available, but not optimized for tablet users, offering no more than a smart phone app blown up to the size of a tablet screen.
Just 52% of apps had Android versions both available through Google Play and optimized (if only a little) for tablet use. ‘Quite simply, building high-quality app experiences for Android tablets has not been among many developers’ top priorities to date,’ said Canalys Senior Analyst Tim Shepherd. ‘That there are over 375,000 apps in the Apple App Store that are designed with iPad users in mind, versus just a fraction of this – in the low tens of thousands – available through Google Play, underscores this point.’
Canalys expects this to change as the addressable base of devices continues to soar and Google brings improvements to the Play store, but points out that Google needs to do more to encourage greater numbers of developers to invest in delivering high-quality Android tablet apps quickly, else it risks disappointing consumers with weak app experiences in the short term.
The 52% of top apps available through Google Play and optimized for tablets also includes six titles that appear as top paid titles on iOS, but are only available as free, ad-supported versions on Android. ‘While nominally free, set against a paid version of the app, ad-supported offerings typically deliver a poorer and often more limited user experience, sometimes taking a considerable toll on device battery life and often subjecting users to unskippable videos or other unpopular intrusions,’ said Canalys Analyst Daniel Matte.
It is important that Google wins consumers’ trust and encourages them to register credit cards and billing details, so that the barrier to them spending money on apps – and other content – is reduced at the point of purchase. ‘Improved consumer willingness to spend will increase developers’ monetization potential and options, and help to reduce their reliance on in-app ads, leading over time to an increase in app quality,’ said Matte.
It will also make the Android tablet opportunity more enticing for developers and increase the revenue potential of the Play store and ecosystem for Google. ‘To take the Play ecosystem to the next level, Google needs more than just a large addressable base of devices. App developers need to see clear potential to build robust and sustainable business models around apps built for the platform, so increasing monetization potential must be a priority,’ said Shepherd. ‘And for tablet apps in particular, Google should go further with changes to the Play store to ensure more rigorously managed, high-quality, optimized experiences are highlighted, to the benefit of consumers, and to reward those developers who invest the time and resources in building them with improved discoverability.’
The top 50 lists [of both the “Top 50 paid tablet apps (Apple App Store, H1 2013)” and the “Top 50 free tablet apps (Apple App Store, H1 2013)”]referenced in this release can be viewed here.
About Canalys
Canalys is an independent analyst firm that strives to guide clients on the future of the technology industry and to think beyond the business models of the past. We deliver smart market insights to IT, channel and service provider professionals around the world. Our customer-driven analysis and consulting services empower businesses to make informed decisions and generate sales. We stake our reputation on the quality of our data, our innovative use of technology, and our high level of customer service.
App Store Market Q2 2013: Google Play Exceeds iOS App Store in App Downloads by 10%
Riding strong performances in India and Brazil, Google Play’s total app downloads were higher than those in the iOS App Store in Q2 2013.
Though Google Play had more downloads, the iOS App Store still generated 2.3x the revenue.
Bertrand Schmitt Interview – GigaOM Mobilize 2012 [AppAnnieTV YouTube channel, Oct 10, 2012]
App Annie Reports Google Play Exceeds iOS App Store in App Downloads by 10% in Q2 2013
App Annie has released its 2nd quarter mobile platform analysis and reports that Google Play has exceeded the iOS App Store downloads by 10%. While iOS is behind Android in downloads, still generates 2.3 times the revenue.
For iOS, the top countries by number of downloads were: (1) – United States; (2) China; (3) Japan; (4) United Kingdom; and (5) Russia, with the US and China making up around 40% of the market. The top countries by revenue were: (1)United States; (2) Japan; (3) United Kingdom; (4) Australia; and (5)China, with Australia moving to #4 and China dropping to #5 compared to Q1.
For Android, the top countries by download were: (1) United States; (2) South Korea; (3) India; (4) Russia; and (5) Brazil putting three emerging markets (South Korea, Russia, and Brazil) into the top 5. The top countries for revenue were: (1) Japan; (2) South Korea; (3) United States; (4) Germany; and (5) United Kingdom with Germany and the UK swapping spots.
Games have not slowed down and are still at the top of revenue and download charts for both iOS and Android.
For iOS, the top countries by app category downloads were: (1) Games; (2) Entertainment; (3) Photo & Video: (4) Lifestyle and (5) Utilities with games garnering 40% of downloads. The top iOS revenue by category were: (1) Games; (2) Social Networking; (3) Music; (4) Productivity; and (5) Entertainment with games taking almost a 75% share.
For Android, the top countries by app category downloads were: (1) Games; (2) Communication; (3) Tools; (4) Entertainment and (5) Social with communication apps moving up one. The top Android revenue by category were: (1) Games: (2) Communication; (3) Social; (4) Travel and Local; and (5) Tools with games accounting for over 80% of revenue.
The Global App Store Economy – Olivier Bernard, App Annie [Welcome to Nevosoft.Ru YouTube channel, April 4, 2013]
Google Play Now Generates More Downloads Than iOS App Store
The latest App Annie statistics show that Google GOOG -1.38% has already overtaken iOS in app downloads. This has happened far faster than anyone would have expected even one year ago. One factor here was the massive surge in Android app downloads in Japan and South Korea in 1Q 2013. What finally pushed Google into lead was another surge in India and Russia during 2Q 2013. Russia and Brazil have become Top Five countries for Google Play app download volume, which bodes well for future growth of the platform.
On app revenue front, iOS still leads Google Play by 130%. Yet even this lead has been shrinking rapidly – less than two years ago, the iOS lead was more than 400%. It now seems that it will be only a matter of time before Google will overtake iOS in revenue generation. The key here is the flood of cheap Android models that have started dominating the smartphone markets of China, India, Russia and Brazil, the most important growth engines of the global smartphone industry.
Much now depends on h0w low Apple AAPL +2.42% will price the new budget iPhone. Apple may value its hardware margins highly, but app market leadership is exceptionally important in attracting the best app developer talent and thus ensuring long term success of the entire OS ecosystem. Apple clearly needs to hit Google hard in Latin America, India and China before Android app market takes over these regions decisively.
More at: http://blog.appannie.com/app-annie-index-market-q2-2013/ [July 31, 2013]
Global Trends in App Store Monetization | Junde YU [CasualConnect YouTube channel, June 5, 2013]
Month Report Webinar: A Granular App Level Look at Revenues: Google Play vs Apple App Store
[distimo YouTube channel, June 7, 2013]
Google Play Revenue Up 67% Over Past 6 Months, Fueled By Japan & S. Korea [TechCrunch, Aug 12, 2013]
Google’s Android app marketplace, Google Play, has seen significant revenue growth this year, fueled in large part by Japan and South Korea. In a new report released today by app store analytics firm Distimo, the company found that Google Play’s revenue grew by 67 percent over the past six months, while Apple’s App Store revenue grew by just 15 percent during the same time frame.
While these numbers reflect the impact Android’s massive market share is having on the app industry, it’s worth noting that of the two app stores, the Apple App Store’s market is still the largest, and continues to see more than two times the revenue of Google Play.
That latter figure varies a bit from an earlier report put out by competing analytics firm App Annie in April, which found that Apple’s App Store earned around 2.6 times more revenue in the preceding quarter. But not only do the firms’ methodologies differ in general, Distimo looked at the earnings of all ranked apps in the 18 largest countries over 6 months, while App Annie’s data was, as noted above, for the quarter.
That being said, Google Play’s revenue growth is notable. While only 25 percent of the revenue from the two stores combined came from Google Play in February 2013, this went up 8 percentage points to reach 33 percent by July.
…
Tanisha Gupta Discusses Distimo’s Mobile Conversion Tracking Technology [TheMailDotCom1 YouTube channel, Aug 2, 2013]
Celebrating Google Play’s first birthday
[Official Android Blog, March 6, 2013]
Accessing digital entertainment should be simple, whether you like to read books on your tablet, listen to music on your phone and computer, or watch movies on all three. That’s why one year ago today we launched Google Play, where you can find and enjoy your favorite music, movies, books and apps on your Android phone and tablet, or on the web.
Google Play has grown rapidly in the last year, bringing you more content in more languages and places around the globe. In addition to offering more than 700,000 apps and games, we’ve partnered with all of the major music companies, movie studios and publishers to bring you the music, movies, TV shows, books and magazines you love. And we’ve added more ways for you to buy them, including paying through your phone bill and gift cards, which we’re beginning to roll out in the U.K. this week.
Since no birthday is complete without presents, we’re celebrating with a bunch of special offers across the store on songs, TV shows, movies and books. We’re even offering a collection of games with some fun birthday surprises created by developers.
It’s been a busy year, but we’re just getting started. We look forward to many more years of bringing you the best in entertainment!
Introducing Google Play: All your entertainment, anywhere you go [Google Official Blog, March 6, 2012]
Entertainment is supposed to be fun. But in reality, getting everything to work can be the exact opposite—moving files between your computers, endless syncing across your devices, and wires…lots of wires. Today we’re eliminating all that hassle with Google Play, a digital entertainment destination where you can find, enjoy and share your favorite music, movies, books and apps on the web and on your Android phone or tablet. Google Play is entirely cloud-based so all your music, movies, books and apps are stored online, always available to you, and you never have to worry about losing them or moving them again.
Introducing Google Play [googleplay YouTube channel, March 6, 2012]
Your favorite entertainment is now all in one place, always accessible on the web and across your Android devices.With Google Play you can:
- Store up to 20,000 songs for free and buy millions of new tracks
- Download more than 450,000 Android apps and games
- Browse the world’s largest selection of eBooks
- Rent thousands of your favorite movies, including new releases and HD titles
Starting today, Android Market, Google Music and the Google eBookstore will become part of Google Play. On your Android phone or tablet, we’ll be upgrading the Android Market app to the Google Play Store app over the coming days. Your videos, books and music apps (in countries where they are available) will also be upgraded to Google Play Movies, Google Play Books and Google Play Music apps. The music, movies, books and apps you’ve purchased will continue to be available to you through Google Play—simply log in with your Google account like always.
To celebrate, we’ll be offering a different album, book, video rental and Android app at a special price each day for the next week in our “7 Days to Play” sale. In the U.S., today’s titles include the collection of top 40 hits Now That’s What I Call Music 41, the popular game Where’s My Water, the novel Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and the movie Puncture for just 25 cents each. In addition, you’ll find great collections of hip-hop, rock and country albums for $3.99 all week, detective novels from $2.99, some of our editorial team’s favorite movies from 99 cents, and our favorite apps from 49 cents.
In the U.S., music, movies, books and Android apps are available in Google Play. In Canada and the U.K., we’ll offer movies, books and Android apps; in Australia, books and apps; and in Japan, movies and apps. Everywhere else, Google Play will be the new home for Android apps. Our long-term goal is to roll out as many different types of content as possible to people around the world, and we’ll keep adding new content to keep it fresh.
To learn more, head over to play.google.com/about or keep up with the latest on our Google+ page. If you’re headed to Austin later this week for South by Southwest, come to the Google Village to see Google Play in action. We can’t wait for you to try Google Play and experience a simpler way to manage your entertainment.
Posted by Jamie Rosenberg, Director of Digital Content
Android Apps on Google Play [googleplay YouTube channel, March 6, 2012]
Supported devices [Android Developer Help, Aug 5, 2013]
The following is a list of devices that are supported for use with Google Play. This list is sorted alphabetically by manufacturer. You can also search within this page to find your device (PC: Ctrl + F, Mac: Command + F).
If you’re experiencing issues with the Google Play website or the Google Play app, please verify that your device is included on the list below. If your device isn’t listed, it’s possible that your device is newly released or may not be listed for other reasons. If you need further information on whether your device is supported for use with Google Play, please contact your device manufacturer for further support.
Note: Some devices are listed by their official model number. To find your model number, go to Settings > About Phone > Model Number on your device.
This list was last updated on 8/5/2013.
A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z
…
Google Apps on Android [GApps] [Google site, created on June 27, 2012]
… [Google Keyboard Hangouts Keep]
Featured Apps
Google Search
Quickly & easily find what you need on the web & your phone or tablet.
Download App
Chrome for Android
Browse fast & bring your personalized Chrome with you.
Download App
Google Maps for Android
Never get lost as you go to new places & old favorites.
Download App
Google+
Stay connected and share life as it happens.
Download App
Google Play Books
Read the books you love, everywhere you are.
Download App
Google Play Magazines
Read your favorite magazines, everywhere you are.
Download App
Google Play Music
Play your music instantly, anywhere.
Download App
Google Play Movies & TV
Watch movies & TV shows instantly, anywhere.
Download App
YouTube
Millions of videos at your fingertips, available on the go.
Download App
Google Drive
One place to create, share, collaborate & keep your stuff, available on all your devices.
Download App
Gmail
Get smarter email wherever you are.
Download App
Google Wallet
Make your phone your wallet.
Download App
Google Offers
Discover, buy and redeem great deals with your Android device.
Download App
… [ Voice Search Google Translate Google Earth Google Goggles Google Currents Google Voice Google Shopper Schemer My Tracks Google Finance Blogger Orkut Authenticator ]
A Note on Google Apps for Android [Android Developers Blog, Sept 25, 2009]
Lately we’ve been busy bees in Mountain View, as you can see from the recent release of Android 1.6 to the open-source tree, not to mention some devices we’re working on with partners that we think you’ll really like. Of course, the community isn’t sitting around either, and we’ve been seeing some really cool and impressive things, such as the custom Android builds that are popular with many enthusiasts. Recently there’s been some discussion about an exchange we had with the developer of one of those builds, and I’ve noticed some confusion around what is and isn’t part of Android’s open source code. I want to take a few moments to clear up some of those misconceptions, and explain how Google’s apps for Android fit in.
Everyone knows that mobile is a big deal, but for a long time it was hard to be a mobile app developer. Competing interests and the slow pace of platform innovation made it hard to create innovative apps. For our part, Google offers a lot of services — such as Google Search, Google Maps, and so on — and we found delivering those services to users’ phones to be a very frustrating experience. But we also found that we weren’t alone, so we formed the Open Handset Alliance, a group of like-minded partners, and created Android to be the platform that we all wished we had. To encourage broad adoption, we arranged for Android to be open-source. Google also created and operates Android Market as a service for developers to distribute their apps to Android users. In other words, we created Android because the industry needed an injection of openness. Today, we’re thrilled to see all the enthusiasm that developers, users, and others in the mobile industry have shown toward Android.
With a high-quality open platform in hand, we then returned to our goal of making our services available on users’ phones. That’s why we developed Android apps for many of our services like YouTube, Gmail, Google Voice, and so on. These apps are Google’s way of benefiting from Android in the same way that any other developer can, but the apps are not part of the Android platform itself. We make some of these apps available to users of any Android-powered device via Android Market, and others are pre-installed on some phones through business deals. Either way, these apps aren’t open source, and that’s why they aren’t included in the Android source code repository. Unauthorized distribution of this software harms us just like it would any other business, even if it’s done with the best of intentions.
I hope that clears up some of the confusion around Google’s apps for Android. We always love seeing novel uses of Android, including custom Android builds from developers who see a need. I look forward to seeing what comes next!
Compatibility Test Suite
[Frequently Asked Questions | Android Open Source, created on May 24, 2010; excerpted on Aug 15, 2013]
Compatibility Test Suite
What is the purpose of the CTS?
The Compatibility Test Suite is a tool used by device manufacturers to help ensure their devices are compatible, and to report test results for validations. The CTS is intended to be run frequently by OEMs throughout the engineering process to catch compatibility issues early.
What kinds of things does the CTS test?
The CTS currently tests that all of the supported Android strong-typed APIs are present and behave correctly. It also tests other non-API system behaviors such as application lifecycle and performance. We plan to add support in future CTS versions to test “soft” APIs such as Intents as well.
Will the CTS reports be made public?
Yes. While not currently implemented, Google intends to provide web-based self-service tools for OEMs to publish CTS reports so that they can be viewed by anyone. CTS reports can be shared as widely as manufacturers prefer.
How is the CTS licensed?
The CTS is licensed under the same Apache Software License 2.0 that the bulk of Android uses.
Does the CTS accept contributions?
Yes please! The Android Open-Source Project accepts contributions to improve the CTS in the same way as for any other component. In fact, improving the coverage and quality of the CTS test cases is one of the best ways to help out Android.
Can anyone use the CTS on existing devices?
The Compatibility Definition Document requires that compatible devices implement the ‘adb’ debugging utility. This means that any compatible device — including ones available at retail — must be able to run the CTS tests.
Compatibility [Frequently Asked Questions | Android Open Source, created on May 24, 2010; excerpted on Aug 15, 2013]
Compatibility
What does “compatibility” mean?
We define an “Android compatible” device as one that can run any application written by third-party developers using the Android SDK and NDK. We use this as a filter to separate devices that can participate in the Android app ecosystem, and those that cannot. Devices that are properly compatible can seek approval to use the Android trademark. Devices that are not compatible are merely derived from the Android source code and may not use the Android trademark.
In other words, compatibility is a prerequisite to participate in the Android apps ecosystem. Anyone is welcome to use the Android source code, but if the device isn’t compatible, it’s not considered part of the Android ecosystem.
What is the role of Google Play in compatibility?
Devices that are Android compatible may seek to license the Google Play client software. This allows them to become part of the Android app ecosystem, by allowing users to download developers’ apps from a catalog shared by all compatible devices. This option isn’t available to devices that aren’t compatible.
What kinds of devices can be Android compatible?
The Android software can be ported to a lot of different kinds of devices, including some on which third-party apps won’t run properly. The Android Compatibility Definition Document (CDD) spells out the specific device configurations that will be considered compatible.
For example, though the Android source code could be ported to run on a phone that doesn’t have a camera, the CDD requires that in order to be compatible, all phones must have a camera. This allows developers to rely on a consistent set of capabilities when writing their apps.
The CDD will evolve over time to reflect market realities. For instance, the 1.6 CDD only allows cell phones, but the 2.1 CDD allows devices to omit telephony hardware, allowing for non-phone devices such as tablet-style music players to be compatible. As we make these changes, we will also augment Google Play to allow developers to retain control over where their apps are available. To continue the telephony example, an app that manages SMS text messages would not be useful on a media player, so Google Play allows the developer to restrict that app exclusively to phone devices.
If my device is compatible, does it automatically have access to Google Play and branding?
Google Play is a service operated by Google. Achieving compatibility is a prerequisite for obtaining access to the Google Play software and branding. Device manufacturers should contact Google to obtain access to Google Play.
If I am not a manufacturer, how can I get Google Play?
Google Play is only licensed to handset manufacturers shipping devices. For questions about specific cases, contact android-partnerships@google.com.
How can I get access to the Google apps for Android, such as Maps?
The Google apps for Android, such as YouTube, Google Maps and Navigation, Gmail, and so on are Google properties that are not part of Android, and are licensed separately. Contact android-partnerships@google.com for inquiries related to those apps.
Is compatibility mandatory?
No. The Android Compatibility Program is optional. Since the Android source code is open, anyone can use it to build any kind of device. However, if a manufacturer wishes to use the Android name with their product, or wants access to Google Play, they must first demonstrate that the device is compatible.
How much does compatibility certification cost?
There is no cost to obtain Android compatibility for a device. The Compatibility Test Suite is open-source and available to anyone to use to test a device.
How long does compatibility take?
The process is automated. The Compatibility Test Suite generates a report that can be provided to Google to verify compatibility. Eventually we intend to provide self-service tools to upload these reports to a public database.
Who determines what will be part of the compatibility definition?
Since Google is responsible for the overall direction of Android as a platform and product, Google maintains the Compatibility Definition Document for each release. We draft the CDD for a new Android version in consultation with a number of OEMs, who provide input on its contents.
How long will each Android version be supported for new devices?
Since Android’s code is open-source, we can’t prevent someone from using an old version to launch a device. Instead, Google chooses not to license the Google Play client software for use on versions that are considered obsolete. This allows anyone to continue to ship old versions of Android, but those devices won’t use the Android name and will exist outside the Android apps ecosystem, just as if they were non-compatible.
Can a device have a different user interface and still be compatible?
The Android Compatibility Program focuses on whether a device can run third-party applications. The user interface components shipped with a device (such as home screen, dialer, color scheme, and so on) does not generally have much effect on third-party apps. As such, device builders are free to customize the user interface as much as they like. The Compatibility Definition Document does restrict the degree to which OEMs may alter the system user interface for areas that do impact third-party apps.
When are compatibility definitions released for new Android versions?
Our goal is to release new versions of Android Compatibility Definition Documents (CDDs) once the corresponding Android platform version has converged enough to permit it. While we can’t release a final draft of a CDD for an Android software version before the first flagship device ships with that software, final CDDs will always be released after the first device. However, wherever practical we will make draft versions of CDDs available.
How are device manufacturers’ compatibility claims validated?
There is no validation process for Android device compatibility. However, if the device is to include Google Play, Google will typically validate the device for compatibility before agreeing to license the Google Play client software.
What happens if a device that claims compatibility is later found to have compatibility problems?
Typically, Google’s relationships with Google Play licensees allow us to ask them to release updated system images that fix the problems.
The Benefits & Importance of Compatibility [Official Android Blog, Sept 15, 2012]
We built Android to be an open source mobile platform freely available to anyone wishing to use it. In 2008, Android was released under the Apache open source license and we continue to develop and innovate the platform under the same open source license — it is available to everyone at: http://source.android.com. This openness allows device manufacturers to customize Android and enable new user experiences, driving innovation and consumer choice.
As the lead developer and shepherd of the open platform, we realize that we have a responsibility to app developers — those who invested in the platform by adopting it and building applications specifically for Android. These developers each contribute to making the platform better — because when developers support a platform with their applications, the platform becomes better and more attractive to consumers. As more developers build great apps for Android, more consumers are likely to buy Android devices because of the availability of great software content (app titles like Fruit Ninja or Google Maps). As more delighted consumers adopt Android phones and tablets, it creates a larger audience for app developers to sell more apps. The result is a strategy that is good for developers (they sell more apps), good for device manufacturers (they sell more devices) and good for consumers (they get more features and innovation).
In biological terms, this is sometimes referred to as an ecosystem. In economic terms, this is known as a virtuous cycle — a set of events that reinforces itself through a feedback loop. Each iteration of the cycle positively reinforces the previous one. These cycles will continue in the direction of their momentum until an external factor intervenes and breaks the cycle.
When we first contemplated Android and formed the Open Handset Alliance, we wanted to create an open virtuous cycle where all members of the ecosystem would benefit. We thought hard about what types of external factors could intervene to weaken the ecosystem as a whole. One important external factor we knew could do this was incompatibilities between implementations of Android. Let me explain:
Imagine a hypothetical situation where the platform on each phone sold was just a little bit different. Different enough where Google Maps would run normally on one phone but run terribly slow on another. Let’s say, for sake of example, that Android implemented an API that put the phone to sleep for a fraction of a second to conserve battery life when nothing was moving on the screen. The API prototype for such a function might look like SystemClock.sleep(millis) where the parameter “millis” is the number of milliseconds to put the device to sleep for.
If one phone manufacturer implemented SystemClock.sleep() incorrectly, and interpreted the parameter as Seconds instead of Milliseconds, the phone would be put to sleep a thousand times longer than intended! This manufacturer’s phone would have a terrible time running Google Maps. If apps don’t run well across devices due to incompatibilities, consumers would leave the ecosystem, followed by developers. The end of the virtuous cycle.
We have never believed in a “one size fits all” strategy, so we found a way to enable differentiation for device manufactures while protecting developers and consumers from incompatibilities by offering a free “compatibility test suite” (CTS). CTS is a set of software tools that tests and exercises the platform to make sure that (for example) SystemClock.sleep(millis) actually puts the device to sleep for only milliseconds. Like Android, the test suite is freely available to everyone under the Apache open source license: http://source.android.com/compatibility/cts-intro.html
While Android remains free for anyone to use as they would like, only Android compatible devices benefit from the full Android ecosystem. By joining the Open Handset Alliance, each member contributes to and builds one Android platform — not a bunch of incompatible versions. We’re grateful to the over 85 Open Handset Alliance members who have helped us build the Android ecosystem and continue to drive innovation at an incredible pace. Thanks to their support the Android ecosystem now has over 500 million Android-compatible devices and counting!
Posted by Andy Rubin, Senior Vice President of Mobile and Digital Content
On Android Compatibility [Android Developers Blog, May 31, 2010]
[This post is by Dan Morrill, Open Source & Compatibility Program Manager. — Tim Bray]
At Google I/O 2010, we announced that there are over 60 Android models now, selling 100,000 units a day. When I wear my open-source hat, this is exciting: every day the equivalent of the entire population of my old home city starts using open-source software, possibly for the first time. When I put on my hat for Android Compatibility, this is humbling: that’s a whole lotta phones that can all share the same apps.
Another thing we launched at Google I/O was an upgraded and expanded source.android.com. The new version has refreshed info on the Android Open-Source Project, and some new tips and tools for device manufacturers — useful if you’re an OEM. However, it also has details on the Android compatibility program, now. This is also aimed mostly at OEMs, but Tim Bray suggested that developers might be interested in a peek at how we keep those 100,000 devices marching to the same beat, every day. So here I am, back on the blog.
The F-word, or, Remember remember the fifth of November
I remember sitting with my colleagues in a conference room in Building 44 on November 5, 2007, listening to Andy Rubin and Eric Schmidt announce Android to the world. I remember a lot of the press stories, too. For instance, Android was “just words on paper” which was especially entertaining since I knew we were getting ready to launch the first early-look SDK a mere week later.
Another meme I remember is… yes, “fragmentation”. Literally before the close of business on the same day we announced Android (4:46pm to be precise), I saw the first article about Android “fragmentation.” The first day wasn’t even over yet, and the press had already decided that Android would have a “fragmentation” problem.
The thing is, nobody ever defined “fragmentation” — or rather, everybody has a different definition. Some people use it to mean too many mobile operating systems; others to refer to optional APIs causing inconsistent platform implementations; still others use it to refer to “locked down” devices, or even to the existence of multiple versions of the software at the same time. I’ve even seen it used to refer to the existence of different UI skins. Most of these definitions don’t even have any impact on whether apps can run!
Because it means everything, it actually means nothing, so the term is useless. Stories on “fragmentation” are dramatic and they drive traffic to pundits’ blogs, but they have little to do with reality. “Fragmentation” is a bogeyman, a red herring, a story you tell to frighten junior developers. Yawn.
Compatibility
Now, that’s not to say that there aren’t real challenges in making sure that Android devices are compatible with each other, or that there aren’t very real concerns that keep app developers awake at night. There definitely are, and I spend a great deal of time indeed thinking about them and addressing them. The trick is to define them clearly.
We define “Android compatibility” to be the ability of a device to properly run apps written with the Android SDK. This is a deceptively simple way to frame it, because there are a number of things that can go wrong. Here are a few:
Bugs – devices might simply have bugs, such as a buggy Bluetooth driver or an incorrectly implemented GPS API.
Missing components – devices might omit hardware (such as a camera) that apps expect, and attempt to “fake” or stub out the corresponding API.
Added or altered APIs – devices might add or alter APIs that aren’t part of standard Android. Done correctly this is innovation; done poorly and it’s “embrace and extend”.
Each of these is an example of something that can make an app not run properly on a device. They might run, but they won’t runproperly. These are the things that I spend my time preventing.
How It Works
As stewards of the platform we realize that it’s vital to allow only compatible devices to participate in the Android ecosystem. So, we make compatibility a strict prerequisite for access to Android Market and the right to use the Android name. This means that developers can rely on the fact that Android Market — the keystone of the Android ecosystem — will only allow their apps to run on compatible devices. It’s pretty self-evident that a single app ecosystem is better than many small ones, so OEMs are generally pretty motivated to ship compatible devices.
But motivation alone doesn’t get us very far without tools to actually ensure compatibility, which is where the Android compatibility program [page created on May 20, 2010] comes in. This program is like a stool with three legs: the Android source code, the Compatibility Definition Document, and the Compatibility Test Suite.
It all starts with the Android source code. Android is not a specification, or a distribution in the traditional Linux sense. It’s not a collection of replaceable components. Android is a chunk of software that you port to a device. For the most part, Android devices are running the same code. The fact that all Android devices run the same core Android code goes a long way toward making sure those devices all work the same way.
However, this doesn’t solve the problems of missing components or altered APIs, because the source code can always be tweaked. This is where the Compatibility Definition Document (or CDD) comes in. The CDD defines in gory detail exactly what is expected of Android devices. It clearly states, for example, that devices may not omit most components, and that the official Android APIs may not be altered. In a nutshell, the CDD exists to remove ambiguities around what’s required of an Android device.
Of course, none of that overcomes the simple reality of human error — bugs. This is where the Compatibility Test Suite comes in. The CTS is a collection of more than 20,000 test cases that check Android device implementations for known issues. Device makers run the CTS on their devices throughout the development process, and use it to identify and fix bugs early. This helps ensure that the builds they finally ship are as bug-free as possible.
Keeping Up with the Times
We’ve been operating this compatibility process with our OEM partners for over a year now, and it’s largely responsible for those 60+ device models being interoperable. However no process is ever perfect and no test suite is ever 100% comprehensive, and sometimes bugs get through. What happens then?
Well, we have great relationships with our OEMs, and like I said, they’re motivated to be compatible. Whenever we hear about a serious bug affecting apps, we report it to our partners, and they typically prepare a bugfix release and get it out to end users. We will also typically add a test case to the CTS to catch that problem for future devices. It’s an ongoing process, but generally our partners are as interested as we are in the user experience of the devices they sell.
The mobile industry today is “very exciting”, which is code for “changes painfully fast”. We believe that the only way Android will be a success is to keep up with that change, and ultimately drive that change. This means that over time, the CDD will also change. We’ll add new text to handle problem cases we encounter, and the actual requirements will change to accommodate the innovations happening in the field. For example, in the 2.1/Eclair CDD, we tweaked the CDD slightly to make telephony optional, which allows Android to ship compatibly on non-phone handheld devices. Whenever we do this, of course, we’ll make corresponding changes to the Android APIs and Android Market to make sure that your apps are protected from ill effects.
On a somewhat related note, a lot of ink has been spilled on the fact that there are multiple versions of Android out there in users’ hands at the same time. While it’s true that devices without the latest software can’t run some of the latest apps, Android is 100% forward compatible — apps written properly for older versions also run on the newest versions. The choice is in app developers’ hands as to whether they want to live on the bleeding edge for the flashiest features, or stay on older versions for the largest possible audience. And in the long term, as the mobile industry gets more accustomed to the idea of upgradeable phone software, more and more devices will be be upgraded.
What It Means for You
All that is great — but what does it mean for developers? Well, we put together a page in the SDK Documentation to explain this, so you should take a look there. But really it boils down to this:
As a developer, you simply decide what features your app requires, and list them in your app’s AndroidManifest.xml.
The Android compatibility program ensures that only compatible devices have access to Android Market.
Android Market makes sure your app is only visible to those devices where it will run correctly, by filtering your app from devices which don’t have the features you listed.
That’s all!
There almost certainly will be devices that have access to Android Market that probably weren’t quite what you had in mind when you wrote your app. But this is a very good thing — it increases the size of the potential audience for your app. As long as you accurately list your app’s requirements, we’ll do the rest and make sure that your app won’t be accessible to a device where it won’t run properly. After all, we’re app developers ourselves, and we know how painful it is to deal with users upset about an app not working on a device it wasn’t designed for.
Now, that’s not to say that we think our current solution is perfect — no solution is. But we’re continuously working on improvements to the SDK tools and Android Market to make your life as an Android developer even easier. Keep an eye on this blog and on the Android Market itself for the latest info.
Thanks for reading, and happy coding!
Android Compatibility Downloads [page created on May 19, 2010; content excerpted on Aug 15, 2013]
Thanks for your interest in Android Compatibility! The links below allow you to access the key documents and information.
Thanks for your interest in Android Compatibility! The links below allow you to access the key documents and information.
Android 4.3
Android 4.3 is the release of the development milestone code-named Jelly Bean-MR2 [July 24, 2013]. Source code for Android 4.3 is found in the ‘android-4.3_r1’ branch in the open-source tree.
- Android 4.3 Compatibility Definition Document (CDD)
- Android 4.3 R1 Compatibility Test Suite (CTS)
- Android 4.3 R1 CTS Verifier
Android 4.2
Android 4.2 is the release of the development milestone code-named Jelly Bean-MR1 [Oct 29, 2012]. Source code for Android 4.2 is found in the ‘android-4.2.2_r1’ branch in the open-source tree.
- Android 4.2 Compatibility Definition Document (CDD)
- Android 4.2 R4 Compatibility Test Suite (CTS)
- Android 4.2 R5 CTS Verifier
Android 4.1
Android 4.1.1 is the release of the development milestone code-named Jelly Bean [July 23, 2012]. Source code for Android 4.1.1 is found in the ‘android-4.1.1_r1’ branch in the open-source tree.
- Android 4.1 Compatibility Definition Document (CDD)
- Android 4.1 R3 Compatibility Test Suite (CTS)
- Android 4.1 R6 CTS Verifier
Android 4.0.3
Android 4.0.3 is the release of the development milestone code-named Ice Cream Sandwich [Dec 16, 2011]. Android 4.0.3 is the current version of Android. Source code for Android 4.0.3 is found in the ‘android-4.0.3_r1’ branch in the open-source tree.
- Android 4.0 Compatibility Definition Document (CDD)
- Android 4.0.3 R3 Compatibility Test Suite (CTS)
- Android 4.0.3 R2 CTS Verifier
Android 2.3
Android 2.3 is the release of the development milestone code-named Gingerbread [Dec 6, 2010]. Source code for Android 2.3 is found in the ‘gingerbread’ branch in the open-source tree.
- Android 2.3 Compatibility Definition Document (CDD)
- Android 2.3 R13 Compatibility Test Suite (CTS)
- Android 2.3 R3 CTS Verifier
Android 2.2
Android 2.2 is the release of the development milestone code-named FroYo [May 20, 2010]. Source code for Android 2.2 is found in the ‘froyo’ branch in the open-source tree.
Android 2.1
Android 2.1 is the release of the development milestone code-named Eclair [Jan 12, 2010]. Source code for Android 2.1 is found in the ‘eclair’ branch in the open-source tree. Note that for technical reasons, there is no compatibility program for Android 2.0 or 2.0.1, and new devices must use Android 2.1.
Android 1.6
Android 1.6 was the release of the development milestone code-named Donut [Sept 15, 2009]. Android 1.6 was obsoleted by Android 2.1. Source code for Android 1.6 is found in the ‘donut’ branch in the open-source tree.
Compatibility Test Suite Manual
The CTS user manual is applicable to any CTS version, but CTS 2.1 R2 and beyond require additional steps to run the accessibility tests.
CTS Media Files
These media files are required for the CTS media stress tests.
Older Android Versions
There is no Compatibility Program for older versions of Android, such as Android 1.5 (known in development as Cupcake). New devices intended to be Android compatible must ship with Android 1.6 or later.

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