Home » consumer computing » Microsoft could be acquired in years to come by Amazon? The joke of the day, or a certain possibility (among other ones)?

Microsoft could be acquired in years to come by Amazon? The joke of the day, or a certain possibility (among other ones)?

Prerequisites (June 2015⇒):

Welcome to technologies trend tracking for 2015⇒2019 !!! v0.7
5G: 2015⇒2019 5G Technologies for the New Era of Wireless Internet of the 2020’s and 2030’s
Networked Society—WTF ??? v0.5
Microsoft Cloud state-of-the-art v0.7
• Service/telco for Networked Society
• Cloud for Networked Society
• Chrome for Networked Society
• Windows for Networked Society

Opportunity for Microsoft and its Partners in FY17:

As progressed since FY15:

Or enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email:

Join 93 other followers

2010 – the 1st grand year of:

3.5G...3.9G level mobile Internet
• system-on-a-chip (SoC) and
reflective display technologies

Why viewed most (till Feb 1):

Marvell SoC leadership
Android 2.3 & 3.0
Hanvon's strategy
Welcome! or Home pages
Treesaver (LATELY #2!) and
IMT-Advanced (4G)
MORE ON THE STATISTICS PAGE

Core information:

Discussion with one of my friends in the profession, let’s call him Gabriel (ezt diszkutáltuk itt Gábrielként szereplő szakmai barátommal az elmúlt 24 órában):

GABRIEL:
“the Wintel camp is destined to fail since the two giants have been keeping most of the profits to themselves, which is indirectly pushing many players to Google’s ecosystem” [see: The question mark over Wintel’s future will hang in the air for two more years]
Continuing this logic Apple is the most vulnerable one. It is also true, however, if there is no profit, no investment, innovation and progress. Rather, I see it as the old world order is overturned, and there is a new world order being formed, where there will be  no dominant player like Wintel back in time, but there will be big groups of power. Majority of the profit will be harvested by dominant integrated players, like Samsung and Lenovo. The effect of transistor radio has been started to get felt, and there is a need of fundamental business model transformation. This is why MS is changing a lot, in the field of Devices & Services. Gadgets are getting cheaper and cheaper, OEMs do not want and can’t pay license fees, and therefore HW and SW integration is needed in order to offer a better user experience, and Cloud Services is going to be the big battlefield. And here’s the big loser could Apple, and there will be a giant battle between MS, Google and Amazon.
GABRIEL:
“the Wintel camp is destined to fail since the two giants have been keeping most of the profits to themselves, which is indirectly pushing many players to Google’s ecosystem” [ld. The question mark over Wintel’s future will hang in the air for two more years]
Ezt a logikat folytatva, az alma a legsebezhetobb. Viszont az is igaz ha nincs profit, nincs befektates, innovacio es haladas. En inkabb ugy latom hogy a regi vilagrand felborult, es kialakuloban van egy uj vilagrend, ahold nem less dominans jatekos mint a Wintel idejen, de azonban lesznek nagy ero-csoportok. A profit nagy reszet az dominans integralt jatekosok mint a Samsung es a Lenovo fogjak aratni. Elkezdodott a tranzisztor radio effektus es alapveto uzleti modell transzformaciora van szukseges. Ezert valt egy nagyot a MS is, a Devices & Services teruleten. A kutyuk egyre olcsobbak lesznek, az OEM-ek nem akarnak es tudnak licensz dijt fizetni, es igy szukseges a HW es SW integracio hogy jobb felhasznaloi elmenyt nyujtson, es a Cloud Services lesz a kovetkezo nagy csatater. Es itt a nagy vesztes az alma lehet, es a MS, a gugli es az Amazon kozott lesz a titani csata.
SÁNDOR:
IMHO the great battle will be between Amazon and Alibaba-Tencent-Xiaomi-Baidu etc., the Chinese company or group going out of the fight in Mainland China into a world domination. I will not be surprised if on the Western side Amazon will first acquire ONE MICROSOFT now turned to the right direction (it is worth for everybody to orient him/herself towards Seattle), and then even Google. Facebook and the global financial interests clustering around it will be the third major group, which will enter the battle after the 2016 both with the great Western technologies group and the big technology group/company coming out of the Mainland China as a global force by that time. The great strength of the Facebook-rooted group will be the Facebook currency (not a typo), which will be able to surpass the U.S. dollar as much as any other currency. Now, this will of course come well after 2016. … and I dare advance this projection not as some kind of a SEER, but based on hard-core current facts, trends etc., as well as the result of 3 and a half years of unrelenting work.
SÁNDOR:
A nagy csata SZVSZ az Amazon és az Alibaba-Tencent-Xiaomi-Baidu stb. közötti belkínai küzdelemből világuralomra jutó kínai cég vagy csoportosulás között lesz. Nem lepődnék meg, ha nyugati oldalról először a most jó irányba váltó ONE MICROSOFT-ot venné meg az Amazon (érdemes Seattle-be orientálódni mindnkinek), majd még a Google-t is. A Facebook és a körülötte csoportosuló globális tőkeérdekeltségek alkotta együttes lesz a harmadik nagy csoport, mely majd 2016 után lép csatába úgy a nagy nyugati technológiai csoporttal, mint a Belkínából addigra globálissá lett nagy technológiai csoporttal/céggel. A Facebook gyökerű csoport nagy erőssége lesz a Facebook valuta (nem tévedés), mely úgy a dollárt, mint bármi más devizát überelni lesz képes. No persze ez már bőven 2016 után. … és ezt egyáltalán nem valamiféle látnokként, hanem kőkemény jelenlegi tények, trendek stb. alapján, valamint 3 és fél éves lankadatlan munka eredményeként merem előre vetíteni.
GABRIEL:
Amazon buys the MS? This is worth of being the joke of the day. Thanks for the entertainment. I am on a bike tour and just stopped. The guys asked why I started all of a sudden to guffaw. …
[later] I just read over to the end. Even more, they will swallow even Google? Oh wow! And how, pray tell, will they do this? Oops! Giant market cap, but only just marginably profitable. Back last year they were in loss. So how will they scrape together 600 billion dollars? Perhaps the Chinese People’s Army will lend them? Amazon Q3 2012 earnings: $13.18 billion revenue, net loss of $274 million [engadget, Oct 25, 2012]
GABRIEL:
Az Amazon megveszi a MS-t? Ez feler a nap viccevel. Koszi a szorakoztatast . Motoros turan vagyok es epp megalltunk. A haverok kerdeztek hogy miert kezdtem hirtelen hangosan rohogni. …
[később] Most olvastam vegig. Sot, meg a guglit is bekebeleznek? Oh wow! Es hogyan, tennek, pray tell? Oops! Oriasi piaci ertek, de epp hogy marginalisan profitabilisak. Tavaly meg vesztesegesek voltak. Szoval hogyan fognak 600 Milliard Dollart osszakapirgalni? Talan a kinai nephadsereg majd kolcson ad nekik? Amazon Q3 2012 earnings: $13.18 billion revenue, net loss of $274 million [engadget, Oct 25, 2012]
SÁNDOR:
My dear friend Gabhri’-el  (“man of God“)!
I did not want to disappoint you. My point was simply to indicate in a gentle way that in the current, quite unpredictable situation even the most unimaginable outcomes are as much possible as yours. Glance at the posts I referred to in the closing part of The question mark over Wintel’s future will hang in the air for two more years post of mine, and I hope you will agree with the above “indication statement” at least. Regarding the current market caps vs. that of Amazon I will draw your attention to certain historical stock prices given below. I will also dare to comment on them as suits my purpose here.
SÁNDOR:

Kedves Gábri-Él (“Úr embere”)!
Nem szerettem volna csalódást okozni neked. Egyszerűen azt kivántam volna érzékeltetni, szelíd formában, hogy a jelenlegi, meglehetősen megjósolhatatlan helyzetben még a leginkább elképzelhetetlen kimenetek is legalább annyira lehetségesek, mint a tiéd. Vess egy pillantást a The question mark over Wintel’s future will hang in the air for two more years című bejegyzésem befejező részében hivatkozott bejegyzésekre, és remélem legalább a fenti “érzékeltetési kijelentésemmel” egyet fogsz érteni. Ami az Amazonéval szembeni, jelenlegi részvénypiaci cégértékeléseket  illeti az alábbiakban felhívnám figyelmedet bizonyos történelmi tőzsdeárazásokra. Veszem a bátorságot magamnak ahhoz is, hogy a szándékaim szerint megjegyzéseket fűzzek ezekhez.

imageLet’s see first Microsoft vs. Nokia (lássuk először a Microsoft kontra Nokia összehasonlítást):
– Nokia had exactly 10 times higher share price ($39.72) at its latest peak (October 2007)than the one on the August 30, 2013 ($3.90)
– Microsoft’s latest peak of $36.81 on the same date never recovered ever since despite its continuous good profit and cash accumulation performance
– Even the acquisition of Nokia’s Devices & Services business on Sept 3, 2013 did not help much, while Nokia’s share jumpstarted by 60% since then (see the combined small chart on the right by clicking on it for a detailed comparison since the acquisition)

image

image

imageThen go to an Amazon vs. Google comparison (lássuk ezután az Amazon kontra Google összehasonlítást):
– Amazon’s share price is growing since November 2008 when it was $42.70 and it came to around $300 for the last two months.
– At same time Google’s share price was growing at such a pace in much earlier period, since Nov 17, 2008 ($262.43) to Dec 21, 2009 ($619.98), then after sharp decline during 2010 recovered to a generally below $600 level till July 9, 2012 ($576.52), only after which started an Amazon-like sharp till May 13, 2013 ($909.18), then continuing to be mostly below of that with rise to $889.07 for the week of Sept 9, 2013. See a recent timeframe on the right.

image

image

Final observations and conclusions:

  1. Microsoft swallowed the once most promising part of Nokia’s business, the one for which Nokia was famous for. Why the same thing could not happen to Microsoft when its upcoming 2 years of market trials will end in a similar niche market result in the Devices & Services space now to be joined under Stephen Elop’s leadership? That is Amazon acquiring that part of Microsoft the same way Microsoft that part of Nokia. Two years from now Amazon would not want anything else than that business only to join with one of its own (Kindle etc.). Meanwhile the rest of Microsoft will continue as an enterprise vendor with an alternative cloud platform to consumers as well.
  2. If that is a definite scenario (albeit one of many others) why the same thing could not happen to Google’s overall Motorola device and Android software business, thus leaving Google with classic advertising part. 
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: