Split strategy for HTML 5 and Windows only enhanced development from Microsoft

This is how after Silverlight Firestarter event yesterday Microsoft cloud client software strategy is looking like.

More information from Tim Anderson’s ITWriting (providing a consistent and in depth reporting on this):
Silverlight 5 unveiled: more power, more Windows [Dec 2]: “There are a couple of ways to look at Silverlight. Microsoft’s lack of commitment to cross-platform parity and its unwillingness to address broad device support means it does not look good as a broad-reach browser plugin, despite its great features on systems that do support it. On the other hand, as an alternative to desktop Windows applications Silverlight looks increasingly attractive as its capabilities increase.”
The top Silverlight feature request: implement on more platforms [Dec 3]: “Looking at the comments, Android is a common request, and relatively easy for Microsoft to achieve given the open nature of that platform. This was apparently not part of the 70% though. Instead, Guthrie introduced more Windows-only features – showing that concerns about divergence between Windows and Mac implementations when Microsoft announced COM support at the 2009 PDC were justified.
Understanding the Silverlight controversy [Nov 3]

The cloud client space for 2001 and beyond is going to look as follows:

Gartner forecast for media tablets (in thousands):

2010 2011 2012 2013
19,490 54,781 103,425 154,150

Digitimes Research representing the forecasts of the device manufacturers (in millions):

Year Smartphones Tablet PCs Notebooks
2011 440 total (281 in 2010)
–>131 Android, 123 Symbian, 74 iPhone, 2 Blackberry, 22 Windows Phone
44 iPad
(15 in 2010)
20-30 non-iPad
227
Top 9
2013 800 100 300

Keep in mind that Digitimes Research is collecting its forecasts from the Taiwanese manufacturers who have rather precise forecast numbers for 2011 since the supply chain is quite long, so from brand names down to the smallest component makers the numbers should be well forecasted in order to have sufficient delivery druing the next year.

  • Update: Barnes & Noble to upgrade Nook Color e-book readers to tablet PCs [Dec 17]
    Non-iPad Tablet PC shipments by the end of 2010 from Top 5 notebook makers:
    – Wistron for Lenovo (LePad, Android) and Acer [?]: 50,000
    – Inventec for Barnes & Noble (Nook Color, Android 2.2) and HP (Slate 500, Windows 7): 1-1.5 million, which are mostly Nook Color “expected to reach one million units by the end of 2010”
    – Pegatron for Toshiba (Folio 100, Android): 50,000-100,00

For this reason Microsoft decision means that for the next year at least:
– they will cover 418 million newly delivered smartphones, the 44 million new Apple iPads and a certain portion of the 20-30 million non-iPad tablet PCs (those which will be Windows based) only with their HTML 5 [+ Jscript + JSON + SVG] technologies
– only 22 million new Windows Phones 7 smartphones will be covered by Silverlight technology
– plus 200+ million notebooks[/netbooks] and a certain portion of Windows tablet PCs out of total 20-30 million non-iPad tablet PCs will be covered with both Silverlight and Windows Presentation Foundation technologies
for the client side presentation development.

Now the $ 1 million question is, how the HTML 5 [+ Jscript + JSON + SVG] technologies part of client software development will be supported by Microsoft tools next year? The answer should come sooner than later from Microsoft otherwise they will miss that huge boat of ~ 430 million intelligent devices aimed for the cloud next year.

More information:
– The Future of Microsoft Silverlight
(Microsoft site)
– Announcing Silverlight 5
[Scott Guthrie, Dec 2]
Silverlight 5 Plans Revealed [Dec 2]
Silverlight 5 announced; the focus shift is made clear [Dec 2]
on “Experiencing the Cloud”:
Microsoft going multiplatform? [Sept 17]
Microsoft to lead standards compliance and implementation? … or how Microsoft is aiming to create a radically new Windows client platform via a set of “whole computer capable rich web” standards. [Sept 20]

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About Nacsa Sándor

Lazure Kft. • infokommunikációs felhő szakértés • high-tech marketing • elérhetőség: snacsa@live.com Okleveles villamos és automatizálási mérnök (1971) Munkahelyek: Microsoft, EMC, Compaq és Digital veterán. Korábban magyar cégek (GDS Szoftver, Computrend, SzáMOK, OLAJTERV). Jelenleg Lazure Kft. Amire szakmailag büszke vagyok (időrendben visszafelé): – Microsoft .NET 1.0 … .NET 3.5 és Visual Studio Team System bevezetések Magyarországon (2000 — 2008) – Digital Alpha technológia vezető adatközponti és vállalati szerver platformmá tétele (másokkal együttes csapat tagjaként) Magyarországon (1993 — 1998) – Koncepcionális modellezés (ma használatos elnevezéssel: domain-driven design) az objektum-orientált programozással kombinált módon (1985 — 1993) – Poszt-graduális képzés a miniszámítógépes szoftverfejlesztés, konkurrens (párhuzamos) programozás és más témákban (1973 — 1984) Az utóbbi időben általam művelt területek: ld. lazure2.wordpress.com (Experiencing the Cloud) – Predictive strategies based on the cyclical nature of the ICT development (also based on my previous findings during the period of 1978 — 1990) – User Experience Design for the Cloud – Marketing Communications based on the Cloud
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2 Responses to Split strategy for HTML 5 and Windows only enhanced development from Microsoft

  1. Pingback: Windows 7 slates with a personal cloud based layered interface for touch-first HTML5 applications on the CES 2011 | Experiencing the Cloud

  2. Pingback: Acer’s decision of restructuring: a clear sign of accepting the inevitable disintegration of the old PC (Wintel) ecosystem and the need for joining one of the new ecosystems under formation | Experiencing the Cloud

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